FireChans
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Posts posted by FireChans
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5 hours ago, Logic said:
I hope the Bills give Sed Van Pran some early starter looks in camp, the way they did with O'Cyrus Torrence.
I said this in another thread here recently, but the best thing that could happen to the OL this season would be for SVP to take the starting center role and never look back. It would allow the least upheaval/turnover to the OL, as it would mean McGovern could stay at LG, Edwards could stay as valuable depth, and only the center position would be different than last year.
As a side note, I'll say it's funny to me that a player "only being a fit at center" is a thing that dings guys enough that they fall significantly in the draft these days. I get wanting positional versatility, but center is an important position, and if a guy can be a ten year starter there -- even if he can't play a single down at guard in his career -- then it's a great pick and worth more than a 5th round draft choice.
I really don't understand how this guy fell as far as he did on draft day. I know he has shorter-than-desired arms for the position and that he's not considered a good candidate to be a guard in the pros, but...is that it? How does a three-year SEC starter, two time captain, two time national champion center with pro traits fall to the 5th round? There must be some other weaknesses to his game that us laymen are not aware of.
Here's hoping that this dude proves to be a steal and softens the blow of losing Mitch Morse.Centers are the running backs of offensive line. Rightly or wrongly, that is how the league has judged them.
That being said, if SVPG is a starter for even 3 years here, it’s tremendous value. Probably my favorite pick of the draft. -
Right now there are a group of Texans fans with podcasts furiously explaining why this doesn’t matter.
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22 minutes ago, Einstein said:
This feels ridiculous to me, as they are a dynasty in part because of our screw-ups in the playoffs and part of that is McDermott's decision making.
It becomes circular very fast.They are 15-1 in the postseason against teams not manned by the GOAT QB of all time.
it’s not just us man.
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5 minutes ago, Hermes said:
I definitely understand the trepidation with the WR core the Bills are currently fielding. But, think about it this way..
when Diggs first came to the Bills he was a good player, when he played with Allen he was Elite, John Brown was good, and with Allen; he was close, but wasn't quite great, Beasley before was mediocre, and with Josh was good. On top of the fact these players grew with Josh over a few seasons. (Do you see where I'm going with this?)
This is a complete misrepresentation of these player's values.
Stefon Diggs was the 11th highest paid WR in 2019. He was traded for a first round and 4th round pick (with a discount because he was being his normal locker room cancer self). Of course, Diggs had just posted back to back 1000+ yard seasons.
Brown and Beasley were the 24th and 29th highest paid WR's in football in 2019. Of the UFA WR's signed in FA that year, they were the 3rd and 5th highest paid WR's.
FWIW, Curtis Samuel signed the fifth highest FA contract this year. Claypool doesn't appear on the list (lol). Samuel is the 31st highest paid WR in the NFL currently.
And they added on a 4th round pick in Gabe Davis in 2020.
16 minutes ago, Hermes said:How I see it, the Bills have at least 2-3 "legit" starting options as you've called them in Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Coleman(?), possibly Knox, and maybe Claypool (based off of his 2 good years). While the team doesn't presently have a Diggs-level WR, there's talented players in place to step up. Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, or Coleman (and again the dark horse Claypool) all have a path to be the top receiver on the team and end up with 1000+ yards. While the top end isn't quite there yet (maybe it is? We won't know until after this season) this year's crop is almost undoubtedly deeper than years past and has a much higher potential ceiling
Do they?
Shakir is promising. Coleman is a second round pick, is he gonna be a legit top 30-40 WR right off the bus? Samuel and Kincaid are definitely NFL starters.
Claypool is a lotto ticket and a bad one. He's on his 4th team in 3 years. The teams that spent a second round pick gave up on him, twice. How many of those players recover their careers ever?
20 minutes ago, Hermes said:Sure the team lost a lot of targets, but the production based of those targets wasn't commensurate to a successful offense. Forcing the ball to one great player and hoping Gabe pulls out a miracle game, seems to me like a losing recipe when you have a player as good as Allen at the helm.
You say this, but literally the best year of Allen's career came when he had a great player that got the lion's share of targets and ALSO had a stable of other good receiving options. That was also coincidentally the farthest the Bills got in the playoffs. So what is the evidence for this?
Besides "it's what the Bills are doing so let's hope for the best?"
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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:
this is what the buffalo rumblings folks think
This how you know they are teenagers. No Mularkey? No Perry Fewell?
For shame.
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I’m gonna sound like an old man but I love the chain. I think they already have a microchip in it, just keep doing that.
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Fair enough
It’s hard for me to take a back seat on the discussion on WR’s.
2 years ago, I was worried about the depth of Jake Kumerow as our backup outside WR. I posted about addressing the position more. It ultimately didn’t matter because no outside WR was saving us in the Bengals game. So fine.
Last year, I was worried about the depth of Trent Sherfield as our backup outside WR. I posted about addressing the position more (and to be fair to Brandon Beane, I think they did miss out on the run of WR’s and Addison may be a Bill today if he was within striking distance). This came to pass when we had Trent whiffing in the postseason.And imo, we are there again. 3 years running.
All I know is that Josh Allen had his best year of his career when he had one star receiving option and 3 other legit NFL starters as receiving options. That group was able to ride out one of those receivers getting injured and missing part of the year in large part because they had quality players waiting in the wings. He has never been farther from that level of talent than he is right now. Jmo.
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1 minute ago, Brand J said:
NBA players aren’t playing QB though, unless they excelled at it in college (Charlie Ward for example). If an NBA player makes the transition to NFL, it’s to play WR or TE. I don’t see their ball skills, body control, and speed (or lack thereof), transitioning to too many other positions but those two. Keon’s collegiate coach Tom Izzo told him he’d have more of a future pursuing football than basketball because at his size he’d have to run a team as PG and didn’t have those skills. His shot wasn’t good enough to be a 2 guard.
The reason NBA players can play in the NFL is because there are enough players with the size and ability that fits some position profiles in the NFL.
The converse is not true. The OL guys are too short. The tall guys aren’t athletic enough. There are probably some exceptions but this is mostly true
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48 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Obviously its not about week 1 lol, like any OC he needs to show he can do it all year. But the beauty behind Brady is that his style is one that carries over well. The biggest thing he did was incorporate movement with purpose to scheme guys open and balance the offense with a run game. Now this year, we got more weapons who can excel in that style, guys who are smart, unselfish, sure handed, good route runners and we added an exciting young back in Davis who is going to thrive in the run style we showed last year. I think Davis will play more than people think by years end where it may be a 50/50 split by then, if not sooner, with Cook. Especially in cold weather and post season games.
I don't agree at all that the general consensus is that the team is all "JAGS", but I do agree that Josh will be seen as having to work with a whole new group where there isn't a proven dominant WR1 like he had with Diggs.
But here is my question...especially to someone like you who has been complaining about the weapons around Josh so much. Let's say Josh wins MVP like you said he might, and I do agree this could be his year as I do think there is a good chance this might be his best year of his career.
Are you going to admit you were wrong about the group around Josh...or are you just going to say what you just said now that "Josh dragged this team" to success and it was all Josh because he had nothing but "JAGS" around him?
It depends on how well the guys around him do. If everyone is a 600-800 yard guy and they get smoked in the playoffs because the guys can’t get open vs man, I’ll probably still call them JAGS.
If a dude like Shakir drops a 1200 yard season on good efficiency, I’ll probably agree he’s a pretty good weapon.
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3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Interesting, for all the melt down around here all off season about the receivers, only 8% of the poll was "worse" or "worst of his career".
I for one am quite excited to see this group on the field together. Name of the game is move the chains and then convert TD's instead of FG's in the redzone. And with Coleman here to go along with the additions of Samuel and Davis to play along side ascending guys like Kincaid and Shakir, I think this offense is poised to be even better in 2024 than it was in 2023. Especially with Brady getting to really install his offense the way he wants to run it with these tools he gets to work with.
I think there’s gonna be a lot of premature grave-dancing, just like there was with Kenny.
Kenny started out with that blistering performance v the Rams and then later the league figured him out. The real test for Brady will be in the dog days of December and into 2025, not week 1 imo.
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3 hours ago, Mikie2times said:
It's not significant. What is significant is teams having a nearly identical regular season record as us with the QB play we had. Everybody wants to boast about our regular season championships and how we might lose that consistency if it weren't for McD. Our fan base is like a bunch of beaten dogs. McD gave us a treat for the first time in 20 years and and we didn't think we deserved more. Meanwhile the best window in this franchises history is going to pass us by as a result.
It’s not significant. So it’s basically the same as everyone else with great QB’s. So yeah, it’s a silly point.
What do you expect? McD isn’t a HoF coach. Did you expect 6 titles by now?
It’s pretty well-known that great QB + good coach is a recipe for playoffs every season. Great QB plus bad coach is how you get the Chargers.Sean Payton, a HoF coach, paired with prime Drew Brees, a HoF QB, missed the playoffs 3 straight years. Had multiple playoff choke jobs.
You think TBD is a bunch of beaten dogs, I think you guys have really unrealistic expectations.
We have the second best QB in the league paired with a top 10 HC. That doesn’t mean we are gonna be a dynasty. It’s the same people who bought the “win now and win in the future” garbage that Beane spewed.
We were never gonna be the next Pats. That’s hard to hear but it’s the truth. It’s just not us. We are closer to the Steelers or Colts of that era. Peyton Manning didn’t win a Super Bowl til he was 30.
1 hour ago, HappyDays said:I trust the consulting firm they use to run the search to make a good hire, yes. It wouldn't be too difficult. It's not like last time when the Bills job was considered to be the dregs of the league. Any great coaching candidate would love to get the keys to Josh Allen for 5+ years to start (or revitalize) their career.
I think everyone has had their say a dozen times over, yes? There's really nothing else to be said. The conversation this offseason is the same as it was last offseason, just with one more data point of evidence to consider. This coming season will give us one more data point to use to evaluate him. I strongly suspect it will turn out the same as past years, but hopefully I'm wrong.
I think we all agree there are some problem performances.
some of us think it’s more the players and failed/disappointing investments on defense. Some of us think it’s the more the coaching.
I think we also agree at a certain point of beating your head against a wall, sometimes you have to make a change.
we just don’t agree on the why and the when lol
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59 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
What if McDermott is the best Bills coach of the millennium, but also isn't good enough to win a championship?
He might be!
What if he’s one of those coaches that had to fail for a large part of his career and then turns it around and becomes a winner and a HoFer?
31 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:I mean, what exactly is flawed with looking at teams record with high performing QB’s? If you want to take it back prior to 2020 you can. It included over 20 qualifying teams. The fact is you just don’t lose a lot of games in this league when you get QB play at that level. It’s a huge advantage. Your baseline win% pushes 75% when you get that level of QB play. So it becomes really hard to parcel out what contribution your coach makes especially when your performance is so poor in the postseason and on the side of the ball he specializes in.
How can you explain Burrows performance in 3 separate opening drives? Does that not shine a light on a deficiency in game planning and X’s and O’s?
These are the teams that have faced KC multiple times in the playoffs during the Super Bowl run and how Mahomes has performed.
KC is the best, but why are they just a little bit better against us?
Our AFC east titles are built on facing teams without winning records and a team that can’t beat any teams with winning records. Our playoff appearance in 2017 built on a one more win than Rex Ryan accomplished. These are things to feel good about, sure. But are you carrying these trophies into games vs Burrow and Mahomes as evidence that we can even perform at an average level?
What’s the standard deviation of wins? In a 16-17 game schedule, the difference between 74% and 72% is non-significant.
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7 hours ago, Mikie2times said:
If the average winning % in the NFL since 2020 for teams that have a QBR of 65 or better on the season is 74% and we have had a 72% winning % then is that hard to determine what exactly this would look like with a replacement level coach? Allen has been over a 65 every year since 2020. This isn't that complicated. All these people defending our AFC east crowns and glory years as if that would just cease to exist are kidding themselves. This division sucks and we start every hand with an ace. Winning every year in this group is par for the course. Miami is the only scent of competition and they can't beat anybody who is .500 or better. McD is Jag and when we go up against strong competition he proves it time and time again.
How is it even possible the Bengals have opened with three drives on us, over 150 yards, zero incompletions, and 21 points. You have multiple games to learn from your experiences and nothing. It is difficult to be that bad. Like REALLY difficult. If somebody asked me if a team would be able to open with 3 drives, 3 scores, and no incompletions on over 15 throws I would literally bet everything in my bank account that wouldn't happen. That's not even bringing up KC. That is the Bengals, the team nobody talks about because they're stuck on discussing why we were too injured to stand a chance against KC.
None of this has anything to do with what I said. He would still have broken the drought.
Not to mention, this QBR “analysis” is terrible lol.
Sorry.
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2 hours ago, Billl said:
Tua takes a lot of heat, but Herbert’s no better. Not sure why he’s immune from criticism.
Because he’s had an awful defense with a ton of talent (indicating a horrific coach) his whole career?
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11 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:
If you can’t make a guess you are lying to yourself. When you look at the % of offense that has run through him, you are not an educated football fan and certainly lack the ability to use logic. If he would have taken Mahomes he would have had similar success, any other qb from that draft class and we wouldn’t be making the playoffs year in and out.
Relying on Cincinatti to beat your opponents year in and year out and on a defense that foot fetish built is not a strategy for long term success.
You asked what he would be. He would’ve been the HC of the most successful season in the last 17 years of Bills history.
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7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I don't know how the WR corps will ultimately come together but there's a clear theme - size, vertical jump, catch radius. They are going in the total opposite direction of recent years as far as outside WRs go. I've always felt Allen would thrive with that style of WR which I was so high on Coleman in the draft. If Claypool can get close to what he was his first two seasons we suddenly have multiple physical studs on the field with Josh Allen, for the first time in his career.
Lots of tipped balls and contested passes when you play the big sized physical guys.
Could be great. Could be INT city.
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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
would have definitely have made the playoffs in 2014
The 2014 Bills would have been a Super Bowl team with Josh. I think every single player on that team is better than the 2024 version, except maybe some OL guys and LB’s.
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38 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Hopkins is a wear his thoughts on his sleeve type of guy. He's uncharacteristically honest. Marches to the beat of his own drum. He didn't say anything everyone else hasn't already thought or is thinking after watching Burks the past couple seasons. Just wild to hear him say it. Maybe he's trying to light a fire under the kid?
Either way, this is the exact reason I see close to a zero chance Hopkins is moved. They Drafted Burks to be AJ Brown's replacement. Year 1, he puts up 444 yards and 1 TD as a starter. They realized he wasn't ready, so they went out and got Hopkins - hoping he'd grow with someone else taking coverage away. And Year 2 for Burks with Hopkins? He puts up 221 yards and 0 TD's. Yikes!
Realizing they're absolutely nowhere with him and he absolutely cannot be a Starter again this year, they sign Calvin Ridley to a big contract to replace him. They sign Tyler Boyd to be their Slot. Now they have a Top 5-10 WR core in the league for Levis with Hopkins and Ridley Outside and Boyd Inside.
Burks is busting harder than any WR in recent memory to the point that he's being publicly called out by teammates. And people think they're going to trade away Hopkins and put him back in the Starting Lineup? No way.
Either they keep Burks and hope he develops as a late bloomer in a reserve role or they get rid of him. Hopkins isn't going anywhere.
Meh. This season is all about Levis. It’s the “prove to us we shouldn’t draft a QB next year seasons.
DHOP has no chance of being moved right now. By week 8, who knows?
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33 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
id save you money tbh
he was excellent last season w the 2seed and only got 1 vote
its a team award at this point
Nah it’s a narrative award. The Bills narrative was doomed when we went 6-6 to start the season.
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On 5/20/2024 at 7:17 AM, Alphadawg7 said:
Welcome to the first ever "Question of the day" thread proposed by @BuffaloBill! It's an honor to kick this off for TSW and thought there was no better place to start than a question about our best and most important player, Josh Allen.
There has been a lot of discussion this offseason about the WR position, but there are more changes around Josh and this offense than just who the receivers are (or aren't). Josh will also have a new center for the first time in a long time, and there is a chance it could be a rookie in SVPG and Joe Brady is going to now truly install his own offense here rather than manage it around Dorseys when he took over last year.
So now that we have a pretty good idea on personnel between draft and signings, do you think Allen will be better, worse, or about the same as he has been the past 2 seasons?
I don’t know if Josh will personally be better or worse. I think i could see his rushing totals be even better and his passing totals dip.
I think there’s a strong chance for an MVP award. With the general consensus around the Bills offense being a bunch of JAGs and Allen, if he drags this team to the playoffs and a relatively high seed again, I think he’s an easy vote.
+800 is good money rn
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10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
what should worry you about the mcdermott may become reid argument (aside from the litany of logical fallacies and statistical inconsistencies) is all the people making it are looking at it from McDermott's side and not the Bills'
reid didn't win anything in Philadelphia
Not only that, but Philly won a Super Bowl way quicker.
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11 hours ago, FireChans said:
Spags' posts are usually funny, but what gets me every time is how many people earnestly respond to it.
It's like writing letters to Santa on TBD.
10 hours ago, mrags said:You can buy my club seats. $2k for the pair. After all, it’s important to you to watch your team clinch the playoff birth right? Heck, I’ll cut you a deal since you’re such a swell guy. $1700 and the tickets are all yours. No taxes. No fees. I’m doing you a solid and saving you some money from Ticketmaster. It’s a good deal for both of us.
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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:
i don't care about the jets game...at this point i only really care about the playoffs. in that sense i give credit to McDermott for creating the environment for higher expectations. under his leadership we now have a consistent winning culture and that's no small achievement.
the reason i asked is because in our recent eliminations our defense minded HC has presided over some absolute capitulations. i'm talking worst defense in the league type outings. the fact that it's been happening w such regularity on his side of the ball is why i'm out on McDermott and have been for some time now. he's the tua tagovailoa of HCs- great stats, can't get it done when it matters.
To respond to your post, I personally think the only way we win a SB with McD/Beane is to just not face KC in the postseason.
Probably a crappy way to look at it, but it reminds me of the Cavs/Raptors in the NBA a few years back. Lebron just destroyed them. Every year. They could have a great regular season, be the #1 seed and they had lost the mental battle before the first whistle blew.
I think McD and the Bills in general (outside of Allen) are there.
I'm not ready to put the Bengals in that rarefied air. But I get why you are.
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Spags' posts are usually funny, but what gets me every time is how many people earnestly respond to it.
It's like writing letters to Santa on TBD.
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Stefan Diggs Skips OTA Texans
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
How many Bills players have skipped OTAs that have been traded twice in their prime as stars for being a malcontent?