Backintheday544

Trafalgar gives Trump an artificial bump due to what they call the shy Trump voter. It's the reasons why they thought Trump would win North Carolina by 5 and Florida by 4 in 2016. The shy Trump swing came more from the undecides going overwhelmingly to Trump, an the were going to win would be Hilary voters that went 3rd party. This time, there is about 2 percent undecided. There is also no third party candidate taking Dem votes. With no third party in 2016, Hilary would have won the great lakes states and would be president now. Trump needs to match not only his 16 performance but also gain enough voters to make up for no third party candidate support. RCP averages have been much more accurate

AZ average poll is Biden + 3.5 FL is Biden 3.3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/ NC average poll is Biden + 2.9 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-carolina/ NV average poll is Biden +6.6 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/nevada/ PA average poll is Biden +6.2 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/ Trump would absolutely need PA and he doesn't have it at this moment.

AZ - 68 percent chance Biden. Odds have beens gifting Bidens way. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/arizona/ FL - 72 percent chance Biden. Odds been constant https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/ NC - 67 percent Biden. Odds shifting more Biden https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/north-carolina/ PA - 87 percent Biden. Odds moving towards Biden. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/ NV - 90 percent Biden. Odds moving towards Biden. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/nevada/

Looking at the numbers and an electoral college split would lean R. However, there is still the issue of faithless electors then. Trump had 2 last time.

Looking at it quick.. no he doesn't. It would come down to Iowa, Maine and if in a tie, who wins the house since the house would chose in a tie. Plus winning Arizona, FL, GA, NC, OH and PA would be a long shot since he's down in several of these states. Don't forget, he's defending Texas. And he's defending Georgia! Still sounds like Good to me Maybe we should vote for a president who can properly say words so that there is not an ambiguity like Biden does?

Here's the clip: you decide; https://mobile.twitter.com/Walldo/status/1319462188990500866?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1319462188990500866|twgr^share_3%2Ccontainerclick_0&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-42899199381040283188.ampproject.net%2F2009252320001%2Fframe.html Again, Biden is crushing the Midwest. He doesn't need those states with the big leads in MN, WI and MI

No he said good.

Do you honestly thing Trump's policy of family separation didnt lead to at least some of those 500 being separated from their families? And again, Biden saying 500 people are separated from families wasn't prefaced with some odd caveat that you want to add. He did 500 families separated. Trump said Good. Don't forget the question was about Trump's plan to help them and he had none. Just like he has no healthcare plan.

Well yea. If Trump wins a bunch of places he's losing on them he wins the elections. Don't forget he's behind bigly in the Midwest states and had needed to pull campaign ads from there as well.

You can look at 270 to win: https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2020-electoral-map-forecast If Trump wins NC, FL, GA, OH and the rest of the states go as they're projected Biden has 290 votes with a bunch of toss ups Silent voters are a myth. You had third party pull dem support in 16 that isn't there now and a larger undecided that went overwhelmgly Trump I'm 16 that wasn't there. Trump in the debate literally had to appeal to Texas voters. Texas.

So no? Here's a story about how it happened: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/trump-cabinet-officials-voted-2018-white-house-meeting-separate-migrant-n1237416

Why is that? What proof do you have to show the election will go Trump? Early voting? Favors Biden... Polls, favors Biden. Anything besides blue man bad or BDS?

Again. No one cares what you or me think on this election. I said I could tell you who would I thought a poster would think would win the debate before it started and be right. You've posted nothing but anti-Biden stuff for a bit so I never expected you to think Biden won. The 2 percent undecided matter. Trump could have said I support *insert terrible thing* and your or my mind wouldn't change.

A new question. There was a pause then a new question.

Lol no they're not. Trump was trying to appeal to Texas voters in the debate. They're not tight at all.

Just again want to point out that weeks ago, alot of people.posting here said Biden couldn't even hang with Trump for a debate and couldn't take a real interview. Past 24 hours, Biden yet again was mentally fine for a debate and Trump walked out of a real interview.

As he should. He's up huge 538 has him at like an 82 percent chance to win. Much greater than Hilary at this time.

That's a quote from Trump. Do you have any proof of that? Because their is proof of Trump separating families.

Running out the clock!!!! Go Joe!

Here's the quote: Biden: Over 500 kids can't find their parents due to Trump separating kids from their parents. Trump: Good

Let's say all the the things you say are true. Trump was presented with the fact that 500 kids can't be reunited with their family. Trump's response was Good. Not that it's so and so fault, not that were trying to get them together. It was good that they're apart. What personal gain did he get? Please reference Bidens tax returns that are easily accessible to show the income coming in.

When did Trump mention freedom or equality before the law? Direct quotes would be appreciated because I dont recall any.

They're working on it. Like he's working on a health care bill? It's not easy if the government is separating you. You're taking the stance these parents are just out their wandering around while the kids are in US custody. These are families that came to US looking for a better life and we're forced apart due to Trump policies. When confronted with the fact these families are now apart. Trump said Good. He didnt say we will help reunite them. He didn't say we will do whatever we can. He said Good that they're separated. Trump will you remember that Texas? ----- Trump knows internal polling. If he's talking to Texans, and Texas really is up for grabs, this election is over.

They're working on it. Like he's working on a health care bill? It's not easy if the government is separating you. You're taking the stance these parents are just out their wandering around while the kids are in US custody. These are families that came to US looking for a better life and we're forced apart due to Trump policies. When confronted with the fact these families are now apart. Trump said Good. He didnt say we will help reunite them. He didn't say we will do whatever we can. He said Good that they're separated.

You forget the whole blue dog democrat junk that went on then.