wiley16350

I didn't charge Allen with the tipped int. I charged him with 3 turnovers. The interception that got called back. The interception that was dropped and the fumble you mentioned above. I am willing to go back and watch that fumble again and adjust. I felt like he could have avoided that fumble.

Except that it isn't an if, then that. It is what he did. He threw the ball to Beasley and it should have been a completion for 5 yards or an incomplete pass at worst. Which is why he was considered to be 50% on that play. It shouldn't have been an interception based on what Allen actually did. On the interception Allen got turned over, I did the same thing. He made a bad decision, he deserved an interception. That play went from being nothing in the official stats to an interception on mine because that is what Allen deserved on that play. Now for Allen, this game kind of evened out in the turnover department but that isn't the case with a lot of games. I credit the QB with 8 yards for avoiding the pressure and 10 yards in the air. I will also add YAC yards if i feel like the QB deserves them. The QB gets 50 yards on the other throw. Both could credit for a score. The situation you present is part of the reason Allen was credited with an extra 64 yards.

So a 50 yard screen pass for a TD deserves a better rating than a 50 yard deep pass down to the 1 (and the QB took a hit to make the play)? An interception that bounced off a receiver deserves the same rating as an interception thrown right to a defender?

They are a reflection of how the QB actually played, meaning that he is credited for drops and the like. He is absolved of any plays that weren't actually his fault or that didn't deserve a negative play, such as spikes, hail mary's or turnovers that he didn't really cause. He is blamed for turnovers that he did cause, whether they counted or didn't count. These things are adjusted based on situation, the availability of receivers and amount of pressure.

Adjusted stats are about accurately representing what the QB did within the circumstances he faced. I also add a stat line that combines all of the adjusted stats attributed to the QB into the NFL's passer rating to have as accurate representation of how the QB played as possible. If you're fine with statistics that distort the truth of how well a QB played, then fine but I like to get a more accurate gauge of QB play. I believe there are others like me that are interested in that too.

What does your post add to the conversation? All it really says "look at me, I can make a snarky comment". It adds nothing to the conversation. So the irony appears lost on you that your post meets the very definition of LAMP. Based on the likes, 7-0, people have found my original post more valuable than yours. That seems to tell me that your post is more LAMP worthy than mine. With that said, I will still take your comment into consideration. If tomorrow morning, your post has more likes than my original post, I will stop sharing my adjusted statistics because then I will know that people aren't really interested. I don't need to post here, I genuinely thought there would be people interested in them. 7 likes and over 70 downloads seem to say that people had an interest but maybe I'm just a silly person and that isn't really enough worthy interest and there are many more like you that are easily irked over something so insignificant, meaning I need to stop sharing asap. To be fair to you, I skip over the running plays so it is possible that Gore wasn't that effective because of what Mosely was doing or calling and not for other reasons.

Gore was 4 for 8 (2.0) with Mosely in and 4 for 12 (3.0) with Mosely out Singletary was 1 for 20 (20.0) with Mosely in and 3 for 50 (16.6) with Mosely out. Maybe Singletary was the reason the running game got better and not Mosely.

That doesn't matter because the Jets weren't the ones stopping the Bills. - First drive ended on a Josh Allen fumble. The defense created the pressure but Allen caused the fumble. He saw it coming and should have tucked it away and take the sack. It would have been 3rd and long but the Bills could still have completed a short pass to get in field goal range. - Second drive ended on the interception caused by the Beasley deflection. that was on 1st down and not in any way caused by the Jets. - Third drive should have ended in a field goal but the Bills had a dumb unsportsmanlike penalty take them out of field goal range. - Fourth drive ended with a dropped pass - Fifth drive ended with the fumbled exchange and the Bills close to long field goal range. If the snap is successful and the Bills properly run the sneak, the drive would have been at least a field goal. - sixth drive ended on the batted int, which was part good defense and part luck. The first drive you might say the right defensive call actually ended the drive. - seventh drive was a kneel down - 8th drive ended with the safety, which is debatable to whether it should have counted. Either way it was more about the Jets line than necessarily a play call by Mosely. - 9th drive ended with a field goal and that was the drive Mosely got hurt on. I did charge him for that one and the one that was dropped on the field goal drive. He wasn't charged for the one deflected at the line or the one caused by the Beasley deflection. I didn't charge him for the Morse fumble. The sack fumble I did absolutely charge him for because he saw it coming and didn't secure the ball well enough. I will have to look at the so-called free play because I will erase an interception in those cases, but I didn't see that as being the case.

I have finished adjusting the QB stats for the Bills vs Jets game. I have attached my game charts for Allen and Darnold. Some quick points. - Allen wasn't as bad as his 4 turnovers but I still charged him with 3. I didn't charge him for the Beasley pick. It could have been a better pass but it wasn't worthy of being an interception either. - As I have said before, accuracy isn't really his issue, he can easily be a 60% passer even with his inconsistency in perfect placement. - Decision making is where he needs to improve. There were open receivers that he didn't find but I still had him down for an 81% positive percentage. The majority of the 19% bad was due to not finding an open receiver when they were available. - He did a good job of avoiding sacks and saved the Bills around 64 potential lost yards. - Darnold struggled to find open receivers but pressure was more of a factor for him. I have no problem giving the Bills most of the credit for Darnold's struggles. Two of his worst throws came after the Bills got the lead and the Jets only needed a Field Goal to get the lead, so he deserved some blame for not delivering in the clutch. - Darnold finished with a better adjusted passer rating because of Allen's int's but when you factor in all aspects of QB play, Allen received a better total effectiveness rating (my combination rating that includes all aspects of QB play). - The CJ Mosely effect was completely over rated. I heard his name like 3 or 4 times the whole game. The first was when he lucked into the interception and got a free run to the end zone. The second was when he benefited from the fumbled exchange caused more by Qunninen Williams than Mosely. The 3rd was when the ball hit his arm while covering John Brown. He had good coverage on that play but it wasn't a good enough throw from Allen either. I guess to be that close against Brown is praise worthy enough for a linebacker but he didn't actually make a play on the ball. The Bills didn't start producing because Mosely was out. They just stopped shooting themselves in the foot. - The Bills were clearly the better team in this game. If Allen continues to improve his decision making, they have the talent based on this game. JA-2019-WK1.pdf SD-2019-WK1.pdf

All 3 of those teams had double digit wins in 2013 and the Bengals and Colts made the playoffs. Hopefully the Bills can be just like them in the total wins too.

I don't know who is sadder, me because I exposed a feeling I had during a rant or the person that felt the need to address a throw away line of no consequence that wasn't really the point of the rant. poor fella to be so petty, or maybe just an ugly troll. Yeah, I think I'm o.k.

And what is your point in posting this? Do you actually think I think anybody would miss me? Do you actually think I need to know that nobody will miss me? Do you think I care whether somebody will miss me? I didn't write that for any kind of confirmation from anybody on this board or from the Bills. That was just me letting out a little anger because I want to watch the team and root for them but when they play that type of game it makes me too angry and therefore I just have to stop watching them so I don't get so frustrated watching a team that continues to do the same thing, hoping to get a different result. So I will stop watching them for my sake, not to try and force them to do what I want. The statement was to release anger and not to provoke any kind of response from you or the Bills.

That's a throw that a desperate QB makes because he hasn't had success and doesn't get enough opportunities to succeed. Plenty of veteran QB's have attempted that throw. They do need to stop but the coaching staff can help by not limiting his opportunities to 3rd down. The games Allen struggled the most were probably all game planned like this. It drives me freaking crazy that coaches actually think the run first type of offense protects a QB. Third down is the hardest down to pass on and first down is the easiest, you're actually putting too much pressure on the passing game when you only throw on 3rd down. That is bad enough with an accurate QB, it is even more detrimental when you have a QB that needs to be in rhythm to be consistently accurate. That game plan will guarantee that the Bills will be losers. The 49ers with Montana passed early and often, then used the running game as a surprise to keep the defense guessing, that more than anything was why Montana and Young were well above other QB's in completion %. The Patriots have done this same thing with Tom Brady. They pass early and often. It is one of the reasons completion percentages are higher, more teams are passing on first and second down then they used to. People can make whatever excuse they want about giving a QB too many opportunities because you're afraid of all the bad things that can happen but when a QB knows he will have plenty of opportunity to make plays, he is going to be more willing to throw a pass away or take a check down. Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe threw the ball a lot but what people don't realize is that a lot of their passes came when they were losing and not early in the game. Their coaches would try to force the run early and force them to convert 3rd downs consistently but sacks, drops, penalties and an occasional bad pass or decision would always end early drives. Then at some point the coaches would be like well we got to give up on the run and they would let the QB try to win the game. Sometimes they would and sometimes they wouldn't. That was the genesis of my hatred of the run first philosophy. It is a hard philosophy to win with and it is definitely not beneficial to the QB unless the team is great at protection, great at play calling and creating consistently make-able plays or that run first philosophy incorporates the QB like the Ravens did last year. Run first like the Bills have done for years now, is one of the reasons they have consistently been a mediocre team. It is a losers mentality to play that way and I can't watch the Bills this year if that is who they're going to be. P.S. I'm not excusing the throw, it was a bad decision but one that I feel was generated from the opportunities that Allen was getting and not something he would do if he was getting plenty of good opportunities to throw like he did in the first 2 games when the offense was pass first.

This is technically true but it is also disingenuous. Tyrod wasn't the only loss from the 2017 offense. They also lost their best 2 offensive lineman from 2017, which showed up in the effectiveness of the running game and was detrimental to the passing game. The Bills were also playing a rookie QB which led to more turnovers. That is the main reason the Bills were worse on offense outside of the loss of the 2 lineman. If Allen played behind the same offensive line, he probably wouldn't have turned the ball over as much. Here is the surprising things, Allen actually had a better yards per play when you factor in passing, rushing and sacks than Taylor did, behind a worse offensive line. Allen produced 2,492 yards on 437 attempts for a 5.7 average while Taylor produced 2,970 yards on 550 attempts for a 5.4 average. Allen also produced the same number of td's (18 - passing & rushing) as Taylor did in less games and with less attempts. The 2017 Bills produced 33 more points than the 2018 Bills. The 2017 Bills scored 3 TD's on defense while the 2018 Bills scored on 1 TD. That brings the 33 points down to a 19 point differential. The kicker missed an extra point in 2018 that he didn't miss in 2017, so that's gets it to 18 points. The kicker also missed 2 more kicks in 2018 that he didn't miss in 2017, getting the differential to 12 points. The 2018 Bills had 32 turnovers and the 2017 Bills had 16 turnovers. The 2017 Bills were also better at running the ball, especially when you take the QB's numbers out of the picture. The 2017 Bills averaged 3.9 per carry for 1,512 yards and 8 TD's. The 2018 Bills averaged 3.5 per carry for 1,294 yards and 7 TD's. So when you factor in a worse offensive line, a less productive running game, twice as many turnovers and a rookie QB, a 12 point differential isn't much at all. When you watch the games (especially coaches tape) it is much easier to see that Tyrod brought the production of his offense down while Josh Allen's production was brought down by the talent around him. Outside of turnovers (which is expected of a rookie QB), Allen actually out-produced Taylor in relation to the opportunities each QB had, despite playing behind a lesser offensive line. If Allen becomes a better decision maker without losing his play making ability, he will be a much more effective alternative to Tyrod Taylor. If he doesn't become a better decision maker, then he will get thrown away just like Tyrod did. I think with improved protection and better weapons, he will be a better decision maker and easily make up for that 12 point differential.

Barkley was better with the Bears in 2016 than his stats suggest he was. I graded every game of every QB in that season and I had him ranked tied for 15th with Dak Prescott and Alex Smith. He was very close to grade with Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford. His biggest issue was turnovers but he got the ball downfield (10+ yards) a lot and the biggest reason for his bad numbers were his receivers. PFF graded him with an 80+ rating that year. I was very happy when the Bills signed Barkley just because of how impressed I was with how he played. He showed potential as long as he could cut down on the picks and so far he has done that with the Bills. It remains to be seen if the turnovers become a problem when he plays more. He is comparable to Ryan Fitzpatrick and is probably the ideal back-up because the turnovers may become an issue the more he plays.

I was going to post this but made sure nobody else did first. Nice to see someone did. He started his rookie season as the 4th string so essentially he was a practice squad player. Thank-you. It's crazy that nobody knows this. Look at Moons college stats and you'll see the real reason he wasn't drafted. He didn't actually play that much. Threw for 1,500 yards and 11 TD's in his most and really only productive season.

I think the majority of people know that Allen needs to improve with his decision making. I think you'll get most people to agree that he needs to get faster to checking down or throwing the shorter throws. That is something that should improve the more he plays and the team gets better around him, which is why people aren't writing him off or getting bent out of shape because that is who the Bills drafted. I also think that the majority of people know that Allen's decision making is part of the reason why his completion % was so low. Nobody believes that Allen played no role in his low completion%. With that said, the receivers and offensive line did play a significant role in his poor completion % with drops and separation. PFF has confirmed that with their stats. What most Allen supporters strongly deny is that his accuracy is a detrimental aspect of his game and will keep him from becoming a franchise QB. I think that Allen supporters would agree that Allen needs to improve catch-ability of his passes but we also understand, that catch-ability can be improved through confidence in the receivers to be open, to catch the ball and the offensive line to properly protect. It will also improve if Allen is more confident in his decision making. Ultimately, there wasn't really that many throws where Allen completely missed his targets for no reason (in terms of accuracy). I do believe other QB's did that more than Allen did.

Too add to my other post. I looked at all of the poor passes that I recorded for Allen and took away all of the ones that he had while under pressure or on the move. That resulted in subtracting an additional 10 incomplete passes. Which means that Allen missed completely on 21 passes (6.5% of all passes) that there are no excuses for. This adjustment gets his catch-able % up to 90.7%

Having other QB's would be good for comparison but these numbers do show that Allen has the potential to get his completion % over 60%. If his top potential last year was 74.2%, then all he needs to get to 60% is to have half of that potential to be realized this year, getting his % up to 63.5. That potential can be realized by improved decision making and/or improved team play. It doesn't seem to be unrealistic to believe that he can get that kind of improvement to me without improving his accuracy. That's what I get from the numbers without comparing them to other QB's. I might do a guy like DeShaun Watson but I have to prepare for the 2019 season so I'm not sure whether or not I will have the time to do other QB's or not. If I do, I will share the results with you guys and I will share the 2019 results too.

I have finished all of Josh Allen's games. His final adjusted completion % is 74.2%. That number factors in everything, decision making and pressure. In terms of catch-able passes which only takes into account plays where a completion should have been expected based on the decision the QB made and the receivers availability; his % is 86.8%. Some interesting notes: Two of his worst games in catch-able % was in wins against Miami and Tennessee. That Miami game was also his 3rd worst in adjusted completion%. He made up for the lower % with his running ability which was highly effective in that game. Game by Game notes Baltimore - came in late during a blow-out. Low % was because of team more than anything. All of the incomplete passes I attributed to him were because of decision making, which is expected in a QB's first action. Accuracy wasn't an issue. L.A. Chargers - Accuracy wasn't an issue. Decision making was. Minnesota - Accuracy and decision making were both good in this game with only 2 bad plays attributed to Allen, 1 poor decision and 1 poor throw. Green Bay - Decision making was more of a problem in this game than accuracy but he had some issues with both. This was his worst game and 1 of 2 where I had him in the 60's for adjusted %. Tennessee - Accuracy was an issue in this game with 3 un-catch-able passes in only 14 attempts. Houston - This was a pretty good game with 1 questionable accuracy and 2 questionable decisions. Jacksonville - This was a decent game with accuracy being the main issue but he was still at an 80% catch-able rate. Miami - This was Allen's 2nd worst game in terms of adjusted %. It is the only other game in the 60% range, although at 69.3 it was very close to 70%. This was one of his most inaccurate games (tied for 2nd) so that was more of a problem than decision making. N.Y. Jets - This game was close to equal share of bad passes and questionable decisions. His accuracy % wasn't bad at 86.2% but combine it with the decisions and he wasn't good enough in this game, with the ending being the most disappointing part. Detroit - Accuracy was perfectly fine in this game. Decision making could have been better but overall this was his 3rd best game in adjusted %. New England - This was similar to the Jets game where accuracy wasn't necessarily an issue and decision making was really what affected his %. There were also some big plays lost because of receivers or issues with the sun. Miami - This was a dominating win but not necessarily one of Allen's best days in the passing game. It is actually his worst in terms of catch-able %, which made it the 3rd worst in adjusted %. Overall, I don't think accuracy is really an issue. I do think it will improve with a better team around him. Less pressure and more experience should make him a better decision maker which will also make him more accurate because he is playing with more confidence in himself and the team around him.

Some more interesting stats that I got from Allen's first 8 games. I have him responsible for 37.8% of the plays that didn't have a gain of at least a yard. The team is 55% responsible and the other 7.2% is situational such as kneel downs and hail mary's. I don't have comparisons to other QB's so it's hard to say where that ranks but it might be of interest to some. 12.8% of those negative plays were because of accuracy issues with Josh Allen. 25% were decision making issues. When you break it down to just Allen's negative plays, then 34% were because of accuracy and 66% were because of decision making. As someone else said, it doesn't take that many improved passes to get a completion % to 60. For Allen in the first 8 games he only needed 14 more completions to get 60%. He was responsible for 53 negative plays and the team for 77. Is it really that hard to believe that he could get that extra 14 completions with better decision making and a better team around him?

Both of those things happened. Why would you say 1 of them had to have happened. There were plays where Allen could have checked down. There were plays Allen missed on deep throws. There were plays that didn't have good options and Allen threw it away. There were times Allen had to force the ball downfield because he was in 3rd and unmanageable and checkdowns wouldn't have been a realistic option. Nobody thinks Allen never made a bad throw or a bad decision, they just believe that Allen was more negatively affected by the team around him than other QB's are, to which I believe he was.

I have now done 8 of Josh Allen's games. Here are some stats that may interest some of you. My adjusted completion% for Allen is 74.5%. His actual % for the first 8 games was at 52.8, so the team around him accounted for a 21.7% difference. That adjusted percentage includes all bad decisions, poor accuracy and any pass where a completion should have been expected based on coverage, even against pressure. In terms of accuracy I have Allen down for having 87% (121 of 139) of his passes as catch-able. The passes that are included in that is all completions and then all passes that fell incomplete because of drops and off target throws. It does not include passes that were defended unless it was determined that the pass was defended because of questionable accuracy. Breaking down the accuracy percentage. Of the 18 inaccurate passes that I charted for him, 7 of them were influenced by pressure. 4 of them were thrown into good coverage. That leaves 7 passes of the 139 (5%) that were thrown to open receivers without pressure and were still poorly thrown. In my opinion decision making is more of an issue than accuracy. That should definitely improve, the more he plays. The improvement of the team around him should also help improve the completion %. So the question is, how much will better decision making and better team mates help improve Allen's completion%? If they can cut that 21.7% difference in half this year, then 60+% should be attainable without Allen really improving his accuracy. I should add that these percentages are based solely on catch-ability, not precision. Pretty much what the OP was talking about. He can definitely improve on precision but to me that is where confidence in his team (protection and receivers getting open) will help improve his accuracy. At the 6 week mark I had him ranked in the top 10 for lowest off target %. The week 13 Dolphins game was his worst in terms of off target % (so far) and moved him into the 20's but he also has 2 more games than the others so it's not necessarily a fair comparison. We'll see if that improves later on. Three interesting players that are pretty much equal to Josh Allen in off target % are Sam Darnold, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Brady. Josh Rosen is worse. other notable QB's worse than Allen in off target % are: Mitchell Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, DeShaun Watson, Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo and Marcus Mariota. 4 of those QB's were in the playoffs.

Well I have finished week 6 of my study on incomplete passes. I would attach the chart but for some reason that option is not available. I will have to write them down I guess, I'm just going to include the QB name and his responsibility %. This reflects which QB's were hurt most by the players around them in terms of throwing incomplete passes. 1. Kirk Cousins - 30.4% 2. Josh Rosen - 35.9% 3. Josh Allen - 37.9% 4. Marcus Mariota - 38.1% 5. Andrew Luck - 38.6% 6. Baker Mayfield - 39.0% 7. Alex Smith - 39.1% 8. Jimmy Garoppolo - 39.3% 9. Philip Rivers - 39.7% 10. Joe Flaaco - 40.3% 11. Derek Carr - 40.5% 12. Andy Dalton - 41.1% 13. Russell Wilson - 41.6% 14. Carson Wentz - 41.7% 15. Case Keenum - 41.8% 16. Blaine Gabbert - 42.1% 17. Patrick Mahomes - 42.4% 18. Matt Ryan - 42.5% 19. Drew Brees - 42.6% 20. Aaron Rodgers - 43.2% 21. Matthew Stafford - 43.3% 22. Jameis Winston - 43.7% 23. Dak Prescott - 44.0% 24. Nick Foles - 45.3% 24. C.J. Beathard - 45.3% 26. Tom Brady - 46.4% 27. Jared Goff - 47.4% 28. Blake Bortles - 47.7% 28. Ryan Fitzpatrick - 47.7% 30. Ryan Tannehill - 49.8% 31. Tyrod Taylor - 50.0% 32. Sam Darnold - 50.3% 33. DeShaun Watson - 50.8% 34. Cam Newton - 52.9% 35. Eli Manning - 53.2% 36. Ben Roethlisberger - 54.9% 37. Nathan Peterman - 57.5% 38. Sam Bradford - 57.7% 39. Mitchell Trubisky - 62.8%

I have now finished Josh Allen's first 6 games for my study of incomplete passes. He is in the top 5 (I want to say 2nd or 3rd) for best responsibility percentage. I have him responsible for 37% of his incomplete passes. The percentage takes into account, accuracy, decision making and pressure and assigns blame to every incomplete pass in whole or in part. What the rankings in this category say to me is that the guys higher on the list (like Allen) are sabotaged or hurt more by the talent around them then guys lower on the list. It doesn't necessarily suggest that Allen is more accurate than the guys lower than him. I only have Allen down for 9 passes (6% of his attempts) that were incomplete solely because of accuracy issues. Some other passes could be inaccurate to a degree but went down as something else, such as a defended pass or a catchable pass that wasn't perfect. I have seen a lot more poor throws from Tom Brady, than I have from Allen. Now, Brady throws it more often so that means he will have more poor throws but when i'm just watching incomplete passes all of the time, it feels like Brady is a more inaccurate QB than Allen. Brady's responsibility % is in the high 40's or low 50's, I can't remember off the top of my head. Maybe after I finish week 6 for all QB's, I will post my chart again so you all can see how Allen fared prior to his injury. Allen is definitely not as inaccurate as his 54% rate (at that point in the season) would suggest. Guys like DeShaun Watson seem to be much more inaccurate to me and I just looked up his completion % and was kind of shocked to see it was at 68%. I know I have Watson with over 20 uncatchable passes which makes his uncatchable passes % at least 9%, which is 3% worse than Allen. If you think completion % is a true indicator of accuracy, then you are really doing yourself a disservice by spouting off what is a clearly ignorant of reality argument.