wiley16350

You do realize that the Bills had 1 possession in the 3rd quarter and it ended with a touchdown in the 4th quarter?

Yeah because it's easy to throw out of bounds after breaking 4 tackles and still have a 5th guy to deal with. At what point did he actually have position and time to throw it away? You probably like Tyrod Taylor and had no problem with him walking out of bounds for a 2 yard loss. Allen has clearly shown the willingness to throw the ball away so I think I will side with him in that he just didn't have a good moment to do so while trying to avoid all of the defenders.

I did give the metric for better delivered balls that could have resulted in YAC in an earlier post. Allen had 6 in the 3 games and Brady had 4 in the 2 games so they both had 2 in each game. I agree that Brady is better at getting the ball underneath, which is the main way a QB can help improve YAC. I said that in both of my previous posts on the topic. Here is a clear way of what I believe because I don't think we really disagree. 1. Great accuracy is rarely the reason for YAC as announcers like to pretend it does. 2. The only time accuracy really plays a factor is when it takes the receiver to the ground. 3. Scheme, Defense, Situation and the skill player has a bigger role in YAC than the QB does in most instances. 4. Some QB's will get more YAC because they are quicker to the check down or outlet passes.

That list means nothing to me. It proves nothing. Here is something that actually does, a break-down of the YAC yards I have for Brady's 2 games that I have done and the 3 that I have done for Allen. Allen YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 4 cmp for 25 yards (6.2 avg) Game 2 - 7 cmp for 33 yards (4.7 avg) Game 3 - 5 cmp for 49 yards (9.8 avg) Total 16 cmp for 107 yards (6.7 avg) Brady YAC yards to open receivers Game 1 - 7 cmp for 47 yards (6.7 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 33 yards (6.6 avg) Total 12 cmp for 80 yards (6.6 avg) Allen YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 4 cmp for 39 yards (9.7 avg) Game 2 - none Game 3 - 1 cmp for 8 yards (8.0 avg) Total 5 cmp for 47 yards (9.4 avg) Brady YAC yards into tight window and quick release throws Game 1 - 2 cmp for 7 yards (3.5 avg) Game 2 - 2 cmp for 8 yards (4.0 avg) Total - 4 cmp for 15 yards (3.7 avg) Allen YAC yards with schemed plays and check downs (screens, flats, bootlegs, swings, check downs) Game 1 - 7 cmp for 10 yards (1.4 avg) Game 2 - 5 cmp for 48 yards (9.6 avg) Game 3 - 7 cmp for 46 yards (6.6 avg) Total - 19 cmp for 104 yards (5.5 avg) Brady YAC yards with schemed plays Game 1 - 9 cmp for 70 yards (7.8 avg) Game 2 - 6 cmp for 49 yards (8.2 avg) Total 15 cmp for 119 yards (7.9 avg) These were all accurate throws so the only other influence was the receiver and the defense to account for the YAC yards. The only part where Brady is better with YAC yards average is in the schemed plays where he has more yards despite less completions. To open receivers they're nearly identical in average but Allen's fluctuated greatly while Brady's was steady. That to me speaks volume to the production of the talent vs the defense they faced. Allen was much more productive in the tight window/ quick release throws. Having a 2 yard average difference in the schemed plays says a lot more about the teams than it does the QB. Again, Allen's avg fluctuated much more than Brady's, pointing again to the talent vs defense. The only thing you can claim is that Brady takes advantage of defenses by checking the ball down in the right situation, which I tend to agree with but that is what I said above. The QB can improve the opportunities and maximize YAC by getting the ball to his play makers but he doesn't actually make the receivers more productive in gaining the YAC yards. That is the reason why I do count simpler plays when I grade the QB, unlike PFF but I don't credit the QB with the YAC yards, only the completion and the air yards. Just finished the first half of the 49ers vs Bengals week 2 game and Jimmy Garoppolo had 122 yards of YAC on 8 cmp for 15.2 avg. 2 RB screens went for 77 yards. Care to tell me how Garoppolo is responsible for all that YAC yardage?

The PFF ranking is 31st, so I don't get where you think it is mid 20's. QBR has him 28th, so again I don't see how you get mid 20's? I think you're wrong about his ability to see the field. Most of his interceptions aren't really poor reads. In the Jets game he had 1 that he forced into coverage. 1 was caused by the receiver. 1 was caused at the line of scrimmage. The last one was because he threw the ball late while on the move and it gave the defender time to make a play on the ball. Against the Bengals he had 1 because he was playing hero ball and the other potential one was actually a great play by the defender who wasn't really in coverage but got back in time to make a play on a deep ball. Maybe the defense purposefully set Allen up but it looked like a great play by a defender covering someone else. I can't comment on the Patriots game since I haven't really watched it that closely. From the quick watch of it, he seemed to be forcing the ball into coverage trying to make a play. I think that Josh tries to do too much at times when the offense is struggling and that is why I think he is fixable. I don't think his interceptions comes from not being able to read the coverage, I think he throws the ball knowing full well that the defense could make a play on the ball but he tries to fit it in there anyway. When a guy struggles with reads the pass is getting picked off by safeties and linebackers in zones. 3 of Allen's int's may count that way but my argument is that only 1 of those probably surprised him that a defender was making a play on the ball and that was the dropped one against the Bengals. The other 2 were forced thinking he could fit the ball in there. YAC is mostly a receiver, scheme and opponent stat. There are instances where a great throw into tight coverage will produce YAC but it doesn't really happen that often, especially on short throws as people imagine. Most of the time YAC comes on wide open throws or where the receiver breaks tackles. Certain types of routes are also better at producing YAC than others are (Flats, Drags, Screens). There are also times where the QB has to throw to a spot where YAC isn't possible because the receiver is well covered. Allen had some of that against the Titans. So for the most part, the YAC that is yearned isn't really because of the QB. There are times where a QB reduces the opportunity for YAC because he takes the receiver to the ground and in that way they can effect YAC. Allen has had a few of those but it's not really that often. I have Allen with 6 instances (2 per game) in the 3 games I've done where he completed a pass and kept the receiver from getting YAC because of where he threw the ball. I have Brady with 4 instances (2 per game) in the 2 games I've done of him where he kept the receiver from getting YAC. I have the Patriots with 214 yards (107 per game) of YAC in those 2 games and the Bills with 257 yards (85 per game) of YAC in the 3 games. So even though both QB's reduced YAC potential twice, the Patriots averaged 22 yards more of YAC per game. Is that because of tackle breaking, scheme, opponents or QB? I think it's safe to say that it really wasn't because of the QB's.

From the games I have done of Allen His week 1 performance (Jets) ranked 20th of all week 1 games His week 2 performance (Ginats) would rank 2nd when compared to week 1 games His week 3 performance (Bengals) would rank 21st, right after his week 1 game I haven't done his Patriots game but it could be as low as 32 I would expect the Titans game to be at least in the middle of the pack if not higher. I think it would all add up to middle of the pack, depending on how bad he was against the Patriots. I think he is clearly better than the 31st best QB, even if I can't be sure how many guys he is better than.

It is possible for their system to be better suited to gauge certain positions than other ones. I don't think the system is good enough for QB's or Receivers. The closer to the line of scrimmage, the better I think it is. I don't think it's good enough for QB's because the weight they put on simpler plays is not enough because there are QB's that play poorly even when the team around them play well and their assumption is that all QB's will make the simple play. There are many times where a QB completely misses an open receiver on 3rd down with an easy throw. That play isn't weighed the same as an interception but it is in fact is the same play and has the same result unless the int gives the opponent good field position or a score. QB's that do complete those passes more regularly keep their offenses on track and tend to have longer drives that lead to points, even if it is only a field goal. Tom Brady makes a living with simple plays and he is the most consistent at doing it, making him what most consider to be the greatest QB of all-time. I don't think the system is good enough for receivers because plays that don't involve the receiver being targeted hold no value. That can be a problem when the receiver plays with a QB that doesn't target him. Robert Woods has become a much better receiver with the Rams than he was with the Bills and that isn't because Woods actually became a better receiver. It is because he is targeted more, making him more productive and giving him more opportunities to show off his skills. At the line of scrimmage it is different because they have a job that is graded on every play so there is a better representation of how good they are.

That is true but they get big plays when guys are wide open and when they run the ball. They also limit turnovers which is probably the biggest reason they rank so high. What goes unseen by PFF apparently is all of the drive ending plays they have by taking sacks or running for pointless yards (on 3rd down) when a better play is available to them. I find that even when Mariota has a statistically good game, he is never really that good. His good games are pumped up by YAC yards and wide open receivers that still need to make great catches. Mariota, Tyrod and Kaepernick are all the same. They limit turnovers or get lucky with them. They look fine with what you see on the TV but the all 22 exposes their flaws. They basically make their team look worse than they really are. When the first read is open they can be really effective but other than that they struggle to find the open receiver and they do a lot to hurt their team in ways that just doesn't show up in the passing or running stats.

I have credited Allen with 300 yards of offense in each game I've graded of his. Those yards include - Air Yards, Rushing Yards, Yards avoiding sacks minus the sacks he has contributed to. The yards I give him include the yards taken away by penalty and drops.

I think the main problem with PFF is that they don't credit QB's enough with the simple passes. For that reason, guys like Mariota and Tyrod Taylor get a little over rated and a guy like Allen gets under rated. Allen has been pretty good in the short to intermediate range but has struggled more with the deep ball and having too many turnovers. The intermediate range is truly what shows a QB's potential and that's where Allen has been much better than some of the guys above him. One guy that I clearly think shouldn't be above Allen is Mariota. I have done 3 of his games and 3 of Allen's games and Allen has a 102+ rating from me while Mariota is in the 70's. To be fair, I haven't done Allen's game against the Patriots, which was his worst. I also haven't done the game against the Titans which was seemingly bad for Mariota and good for Allen. I don't see how Mariota would be considered better than Allen. Mariota and Tyrod are perfect example of why the simple passes matter. Those guys take too many sacks when simple plays are available to them. I actually find that Allen has avoided a lot of sacks in a multitude of ways. Believe it or not, there have been sacks he has avoided by getting rid of the ball quickly. He has also done it by breaking tackles, leaving the pocket at the right time and throwing the ball away. I wish I could keep up with the season in my grading but it takes a lot of time. There are definite questions on this list. I've done 3 of Mayfield's games and he wasn't as high as Allen but the New England game could be a big weight for Allen I guess. I question how high Darnold is, he has only played 2 games and he wasn't that good against the Bills. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been much better than his numbers but I don't think I have him better than Allen. Winston has had a couple of really good games but also a couple of really bad ones, I find him to be questionable too.

I have finished the chart for Allen's performance against the Giants. He was really good in this game and there really isn't much you can complain about in this performance. Sometimes it is obvious when he avoided a sack but other times he does get rid of the ball faster than people think to avoid a free rusher. I had him down for avoiding 8 sacks. He was under pressure nearly 35% of the time and that is around the threshold where QB's don't play that well and he had a great one. I put some blame on him for 4 plays; 2 sacks and 2 passes. For the 2 sacks, he got some blame because there were receivers available, although just a check down on the one. He didn't get all the blame for the sacks because the line didn't do their part well enough to help him get through his progressions. The worst one was when he had Beasley open crossing right in front of him but the timing of the pressure made it hard to say with certainty that he had time to get rid of the ball. One of the passes was poor accuracy. The other was a throw away caused by pressure where he had an available check down. I didn't make him completely at fault for that because of the pressure but he could have gotten rid of it quicker to negate the pressure. I think he deserved a 2nd TD pass on a throw to Zay Jones in the back of the end zone. Jones had to dive for it but got both hands on the ball and the coverage dictated the throw to be more of a difficult catch. Zones was the correct throw on that play as there was no better options. JA-2019-WK-2.pdf

I have finished all week 1 games and here is how Allen ranked with his performance against the Jets vs all other QB's in week 1 only. Positive Play % = 11th Total Adjusted Yards = 8th Average per play = 13th Scoring = 17th Scoring % = tied for 17th Turnovers = 25th Turnover % = 25th Total Effectiveness Rating = 20th Completion % = 17th Passing Yards = 16th Passing Average = 19th Passing TD's = Tied for 19th Passing TD% = 25th Interceptions = tied for 27th Interception % = 30th The turnovers obviously were the main reason for a lower rating. His running ability put him in the top half for yards and average and just outside the top half in scoring. I have also done the Bengals game and his numbers were similar to the Jets game. I attached the Bengals game results to this post. J.ALLEN-2019-WK-3.pdf P.S. My completion % isn't an accuracy %. Accuracy influences it but throwing to covered receivers or not throwing to open receivers also affect it.

I agree. There is potential with this offense, they just need to be more consistent at everything. I think they have clearly been the better team each week, even against the Patriots. They just get in their own way, way too often.

The Bills problem isn't just one thing. I don't think they purposefully scheme to get certain guys open like Andy Reid does until desperation point and then they pull out some nice play calls like using McKenzie. They don't really use the screen passes that often to get some easy completions and force defenses to cover the whole field. So there are things that I think the coaching staff can do to help the offense by scheme, but it isn't the only problem. I feel like the Bills just like to take turns at who will destruct a drive. On 1 drive it will be a critical penalty on a successful play. Then the next drive will be ruined by poor protection. Then the next drive is ruined by a dropped pass. Then the QB turns the ball over. Then the coaching staff passes on a field goal. Which I would like to point out that the Bills did have 20 points in potentiality yesterday as they passed up on 2 field goals. One early in the game and one on the last drive. Even through the struggles, when you count in all of the missed or passed up field goals, the Bills have been good for at least 20 points in all but the Patriots game. Maybe they did in that one but I have yet to watch it.

This isn't actually true. You believe it to be true because you don't recognize the names of the receivers. Ultimately, Andy Reid does a great job of scheming receivers open so even if the talent is unknown, they are still getting open and giving the QB quality opportunities. He has one of the best, if not the best TE in the league. He has LeSean McCoy and another good RB. You may think McCoy is done but he looks pretty good running with much more space in KC than he had in Buffalo. I have charted 3 of his games and he has completed 3 passes (1 per game) into a window or tight coverage. I have charted 2 of Allen's games and have him down for 9 completions into tight coverage or a window. I am positive Allen's receivers have dropped more passes.

I think it is possible that it was Allen's fault for the tip because the rusher was free and in Allen's view and maybe he should have looked elsewhere. The problem is that the receiver was open and the only open receiver that early in the play. It very well could have been the right pre-snap read and since the receiver was open, going off that read isn't something a QB necessarily will do based on rushers. You do see that type of deflection all the time without incident. Allen could have adjusted but then pressure up the middle that got to him after releasing the ball may have caused a sack. If Allen did hold from throwing to the pre-snap read and avoided the sack, then a play may have developed downfield but none of that is certain. It is also possible that the TE was supposed to chop block the defender to create a passing lane and that is what kept the play from being successful. In short, there is too much subjectivity in that play for me to weigh it 100% Allen's fault. My view is that It appeared as though he threw it to the proper receiver who was open based on the coverage, play design and pre-snap read but he probably should have adjusted to the free defender. The questionable part is who is responsible for the defender that batted down the ball. Was the TE supposed to chop block? Did Allen need to adjust on the fly from his pre-snap read and not challenge the defender or was it just luck that the defender was able to get 1 hand on the ball to deflect it?

Well we can differ on that. Playing in the backyard, My brother was great at jump balls and I would just throw him one because it was the easiest way to get the ball downfield. It was at times the play I felt most confident in making because he was that good at it and I knew the defenders couldn't stop it. It's funny how people see different things. In my opinion he got the ball and immediately threw the pass. The defender tipped it because he was coming in on a blitz and actually saw Allen throw the ball so he jumped and knocked it down as he was running. He wasn't sitting at the line waiting and then jumped up and knocked it down because he knew that was where the pass was going.

Actually it isn't. I guess it depends on what you mean but sometimes a jump ball is the best way to make a play. The QB showing confidence in his receiver isn't a bad thing. Now if the throw is at the back of a defender and the receiver makes a catch over him, then it wasn't a good throw but that isn't what I was thinking of.

You're right, it is an easy window for Bias. I absolutely agree with that, which is why I make sure that I am very aware of mine and I will have a debate in my own mind while doing this and try to make sure that I am as accurate as possible. I understand that may be a reason to be skeptical of adjusted stats, I can be skeptical of Pro Football Focus at times. All you can do is look at what I produce and see if you think that it matches with how well a QB played. Just be mindful, the coaches tape can take off some of the shine on certain QB's like Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor. Those 2 don't turn the ball over a lot but that's because they take sacks, throw balls away and run for meaningless yards that make the team look bad but not their stats. For the record, Rodgers is better than Taylor but they have some similarities. I'm sorry but what makes a poor 3rd down throw better than an interception? They accomplish the same thing, turning the ball over. I don't add that kind of turnover to the passing stats, I just add it to the total QB effectiveness rating. That is why there are separate categories. You can see what he did directly as a passer and what he did in total play.

If the receiver got both hands on it, then it would be a positive. If the defender should have intercepted it but the receiver steals it away then it would be a negative. If the receiver deserves more credit for catching it, then the completion % would be reduced. I take all variables into account.

If this is directed at me, the answer is yes and no. That can be one of the hardest things to judge. Most of the time I say no unless the ball is thrown low (to the chest or head area of the defender) and it is obvious that the QB could have done better. On that play I wouldn't rule out some responsibility on Allen because the defender was in view but it is hard to say for sure because it seemed like the play was designed to go where Allen was throwing it. Maybe the tackle was supposed to chop block to create a passing lane and he just didn't get there or in time or didn't expect the defender to come. That is why I go with questionable fault on things like that.

Rodgers didn't have the traditional turnovers but he missed 3rd down throws and open receivers on 3rd downs that did stall drives, effectively causing turnovers. I credited him with 2.75 turnovers because his poor play led to failed drives. Rodgers can actually be secretly bad. He takes bad sacks or has bad throwaways because he isn't aware of open receivers despite having the time to find them. In that game, he missed multiple throws to open receivers. As a passer, Rodgers did better than Allen but when it came to actually producing and not be the reason for failures, Rodgers was worse. The only reason Rodgers was a better passer is because he didn't have interceptions like Allen did but when it came to actually throwing the ball, Allen was better.

Let me ask you a question. Do you think Aaron Rodgers was better on Thursday night than Allen was on Sunday?

I will put it this way. According to the official stats, Sam Darnold was the better QB. According to my Total Effectiveness adjusted stat, Allen was the better QB.

I would say that it is always more accurate than the official stats but not necessarily perfect. It isn't really subjective for the most part. There are plays where it requires more subjectivity but the more subjective it is, the less weight I put into the stat by reducing the impact, which is why you'll see portions of whole numbers in the chart. Some plays don't earn full weight. Take the fumble you mentioned before. If I go back and watch it and agree with your assessment then I can change it to a portion of a fumble rather than a full fumble. I also want to point out that I didn't charge Allen with that sack, only the fumble. A QB can be charged with both.