wiley16350

The chart you saw is just 1 game for every QB that has numbers in the chart. I have 2 monitors and chart the plays as I watch. I went through and did the interception chart first, watching every passing play to see if there was an intercept-able pass and charting each one that I found. So I watched all 256 games just doing intercept-able passes. Then I went through all 256 games again and charted fumbles, watching all fumble plays. Then I went through all 256 games again and charted sacks, watching all sack plays. Now I am going through the 4th time, watching all incomplete passes and charting them. I will do it again for completions, yards and scoring. The ultimate goal is to get an adjusted NFL QB rating and rank the QB's based on that. I wish I was offered money for it, so that I could focus more time on it and get it done faster. My goal isn't necessarily to make a lot of money from it at least right right away. If I sold it, I might only do it for a small price, like a $1, I mean you get a enough people at a $1 and I could easily support myself and do it full-time. If not, it is still something I enjoy doing in my spare time and it allows me to be more knowledgeable when talking about football. Ultimately, I am working on a season chart for each QB for the 2019 season and getting the system set now to start charting the new season as it progresses so that it could be ready to sell after the season as quickly as possible.

I am doing all the games for all the QB's. Allen finished 2nd in my adjusted rushing yards. Which exclude Kneel downs and sneak yards. I also added yards called back from penalties and yards behind the line of scrimmage when the QB had to get away from unblocked rushers. Of the QB's with 50 or more rushes, Allen ranked 2nd in my adjusted average yards. He was 5th in broken / missed tackles. He had the most yards from scrambling. Lamar Jackson who was 1st, got most of his yards from called runs. Allen is clearly one of the elite QB's at scrambling. The good thing is that he did it because it was given to him or necessary and not really because it was a crutch. Allen was 33rd (out of 44) in my adjusted sack % which takes into account coverage and pressure. Allen's biggest reason for improvement after injury was because his sack% went down and his rushing went up. It wasn't necessarily because the line improved or the receivers got better. Notable QB's with a higher sack %; Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, DeShaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Tyrod Taylor. He was tied for 21st (out of 43) in fumble % which takes into account situation and pressure. Notable QB's with the same or higher fumble %; Mitchell Truibisky, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Nick Foles, Dak Prescott, Josh Rosen, Tyrod Taylor and Lamar Jackson. He was tied for 31st (out of 40) in interception % which takes into account coverage, pressure and situation. Notable QB's with a higher int%; Mitchell Truibisky, Andy Dalton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Darnold and Ryan Tannehill. I don't really want to share all of the information, there is a lot of work and time involved and I will probably have to sell the information once the study is done. I will attach the incompletion study since it is very early in the process and there isn't that much information on the sheet and you can get an idea of what I'm doing. See attachment for that. Incompletion Study - 2018.pdf

I have been working on a QB study lately but I haven't finished with my in-completion study yet. I've finished with interceptions, fumbles and sacks. So far I have only done 6 games on in-completions but I can give an excellent example of why completion % is not a great indicator of accuracy. Of the 6 games I have done, Josh Allen has the lowest responsibility percentage for his incomplete passes. He went 6 for 15 (40%) in that game but I only charged him for 1.3 of the 9 incomplete passes he had. 4 of his passes were dropped but 2 of those had a degree of difficulty that he received partial blame for. He threw 3 of the passes away and I found some questionable fault with 1 of those because it was debatable that he had a receiver open. He had 1 pass defended, which it means it was on target but he couldn't get it past the defender. None of his passes were actually completely off target in that game so a 40% completion rate does nothing to portray his true accuracy. The surprising result is that the guy who was most responsible for his incomplete passes in these week 1 games was Tom Brady. Brady was 26 of 39 (66.7) in that game. I charged Brady with 8.1 incomplete passes out of the 13 that he had. He had 3 passes defended, 1 bad throw away and 5 inaccurate passes. Brady was the more inaccurate passer based on these 2 games and yet the completion % doesn't reflect that at all. Brady was much more productive but the team around him allowed for him to make more bad plays because they don't screw up themselves as much as the players around Allen. That gave Brady more opportunity to be more productive. I am very curious to see the end results but it will be a while. I don't think Allen is as inaccurate as he is made out to be. He had a lot of throw aways and dropped passes and not a lot of attempts, so his completion % is not a good indicator of his true accuracy.