No_Matter_What
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Posts posted by No_Matter_What
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I love what we are doing. Everybody and their mother knows we are drafting WR round 1 so we don't even try to hide it and are doing all the work that can be done. This way nobody knows which WRs are we in fact interested in.
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15 hours ago, Estro said:
1 year - $1.75M contract fir Collins, according to spotrac. Much more in line with expectations, rather than the "up to" $6.5M that was reported after his signing
Lol I just found out and came to post this. Sportrac doesn't say anything about incentives but it doesn't mean there aren't any.
Anyway, it is a low cap hit, but at the same time it's all guaranteed, so he is either lock to make the roster or leaves us with $1,5M dead cap and no savings if cut.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea the Chiefs trading up for a tackle is one of the most likely moves in the draft IMO. They need to be ahead of Baltimore and San Francisco who are both potential tackle spots. The Bills won't trade with them in case it is a receiver. I think Green Bay at #25 are a potential partner but not if DeJean is there as he was here. Tampa are possible at #26, Arizona at #27 or Detroit at #29. I would think you try and get as high in that list as you can for fear of getting beaten to the trade up punch by the other two.
Should be said though that in this mock the OTs haven't flown as I think they will on draft night and Fautanu Latham, Mims and Guyton were all still there. But even in that scenario Mims's stratospheric ceiling makes him a worthy trade up target.
The way I see this tackle class is:
Tier 1 is Joe Alt who is the best all around left tackle ready to start and be great day 1 and Olu Fashanu is the best pass protection technician in the class.
Tier 2 for me is then Jordan Morgan who has the highest floor and Amarius Mims who has the highest ceiling.
Tier 3 is Fuaga and Fautanu who I think are both 10 year NFL starters that you can try at left tackle but ultimately may be at their best elsewhere on the line.
Tier 4 is Guyton who I think is a right tackle early but who might be capable of developing into a left tackle in the NFL.
Tier 5 maybe somewhat controversially is Latham who I think is a right tackle only. And he could well be a good one. But of all those guys he is the one I feel has the least chance to be an NFL left tackle and hence I have him lower than the consensus.
Who from tier 2 and 3 would you consider for Bills at 28? I guess tier 1 is out of question and I doubt tier 4 and below could even be BPA on your board when we pick.
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1 minute ago, TPS said:
With the 21st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU.
In the last 4 picks, the top 2 DTs were taken along with 2 of their OL targets, so the Phins, surprised to have Thomas fall into their lap, opt to add another dynamic element to their passing attack. Thomas has it all--speed, size, and power. Now all they need is a QB....😇
@BigdaddyinOrlando and the N'awlins Aints are on the clock.
He was taken at 12 😀
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4 minutes ago, Virgil said:
I haven’t done that in the past because it’s too ambiguous. We talk about trading up for a certain player, but trading back would be for what exactly?
I know the answer and why we would, but I don’t know how to apply that to a mock. Yes, we could agree to trade back, but to where. Do we make a poll for every offer.
I feel it would slow things down too much and wouldn’t have a solid direction to it.
Long story short, yes, I’ve considered it and thought it through 😋
Ok, np. But since you wrote the bolded, it seems that I wasn't clear enough.
What I mean is that once Bills are on the clock, you wouldn't start the poll immediately, but give all other GMs a chance to send their offers (within an hour or so). If there was any reasonable offer, you would include in the poll.
So the poll would be very specific, something like
- player A
- player B, etc
- trade down with team X (pick 28 for picks Y and Z)
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22 hours ago, Virgil said:
If any of them fell to 10, the Bills would have been interested. Based on multiple thread and article reviews, the ammo to move up higher than 9 was too much for the Bills. The Bills did reach out about the 9 pick and were rejected. We def don't have the ammo to get up to 6
Virgil, did you think about possibility of including trade down in the poll when Bills come on the clock?
I know it is not easy to manage but something like giving all other GMs one hour to send you offers and if there are any include these in the poll?
Just a thought since people are talking about trading down quite a lot around here imo.
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20 minutes ago, Virgil said:
I feel for you man. That's a tough spot to be in. I feel like the Chargers very much want to trade back and shore up their offensive line. But if no one calls, and there isn't an Oline of value there, then you do what you have to do. Maybe all of Harbaugh's "we are going to be a running team" is a smoke screen, but I doubt it. No one can argue that they don't need a receiver.
While I understand what you are saying, I wouldn't call a chance to draft Nabers a "tough spot to be in"
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6 hours ago, CNYfan said:
I think our mock may not be an accurate representation of the 2nd round league wide. My hypothesis is that as a fanbase/board we are overwhelmingly scouting and have the highest interest in the WR group. This bias is significant beyond what the League in general is prioritizing. Therefore, the results here are not indicative of what a true 2nd round will look like at the end of April.
I may be wrong but that is my theory.
This is spot on.
Just to provide some data - I like to read mock draft on one Commanders forum, they do 7 rounds every year and seem pretty knowledgable to me (well, Bills GM made some odd choices this year but that is small sample size).
https://es.redskins.com/topic/446775-2024-es-gms-mock-draft/
Below is comparison how WRs were taken in both drafts:
Marvin Harrison 4 / 5 / +1
Rome Odunze 6 / 10 / +4
Malik Nabers 7 / 9 / + 2
Brian Thomes 12 / 26 / +14
Adonai Mitchell 28 / 32 / +4
Troy Franklin 30 / 46 / +16
Xavier Worthy 33 / 47 / +14
Xavier Legette 35 / 33 / - 2
Ladd McConkey 36 / 36 / 0
Keon Coleman 43 / 49 / +6
Ricky Pearsall 46 / 54 / +8
Roman Wilson 48 / 43 / -5
Malachi Corley 53/ 64 / +11
Jermaine Burton 54 / 72 / +18
Ja'Lynn Polk 58 / 70 / +12
So, with 4 more picks in 2nd round to go, in TBD mock draft 6 WRs were selected in the 1st round, 9 in the 2nd (15 total). At their forum, only 5 in the 1st round and 8 in the 2nd (13 total). Only Legette and Wilson were picked a little earlier, McConkey at the same spot, and 12 WRs were picked later, many of them A LOT later (Thomas, Worthy, Burton, Polk). On average, first 15 WRs went 7 spots later than in TBD draft.
I know it is just one alternative mock draft but I am pretty sure Bills fans have strong bias towards WRs.
EDIT: If draft went their way, Nabers/Odunze would be easier to trade up for, if not Thomas would be basically a Bill, and it would also be much more realistic to trade up for our guy in 2nd round. I really hope/think some of this will be the case in real draft.
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Well Stef, I get your point, you want to win more than anybody else, so why exactly you basically disappeared in all of our last 3 playoff exits?
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I have voted Lassiter. I actually thought he'd gone. He is the best player left on the board IMO and I think the Bills corner situation is less settled than others. Douglas will be gone after 2024, I am out on Elam ever translating to our scheme. So when a corner is sticking out on the board like Lassiter is here he has to be the pick IMO.
I'd go Fiske over Jenkins as my 2nd choice. Think he is a better fit for what we do. So if this becomes a 2 horse race later he is where I will re-allocate my vote.
I'm lower than most on Kinchens. I think he is a sub par athlete to spend a 2nd round pick on. Bullock from USC is my next best at safety, but Lassiter, Fiske and Jenkins are all above him on my board anyway so I'd not be considering him in this scenario.
Do you think he could/would/should be a starter in 2024? Over who?
I think it is really an interesting team building question if you think he wouldn't start in 24. Then it is either slightly better CB who sits in 24 and can possibly start 25-27 or a DT who could play ~40% snaps in 24 and maybe 50-65% in 25-27. I am not sure I have an answer in this case.
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47 minutes ago, Returntoglory said:
Where in Europe are you my friend?
Slovakia.
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3 hours ago, Returntoglory said:
This video says it all, as far as I'm concerned.
https://youtu.be/JdyG_pPfSIU?si=sIzIch0Q1wSJVqt-I am not able to re-watch our PO losses, and I don't have good memory, so I forgot about this.
Man it is painful to watch 😢
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I am really puzzled by number of fans who are willing to sell the farm for massive trade up.
I for one want to stay put and take the best WR available (or BPA if he is clearly graded above best WR), or maybe make a small trade up for Thomas if he falls, but other than that - stay where you are and get a good player there. Price for top 10 pick is too steep for us.
I also want to keep next years pick we just got from Texans. The more players you draft the higher chance that you actually hit.
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1 hour ago, Einstein said:
This whole thread could be submitted to Cold Takes Exposed.
@Beck Water and @H2o with early nominees. That reporter nailed everything. From the team, to the literal pick we landed.
Hmm but it is not the literal pick we landed, is it? I thought we got 2nd rounder in 2025 unfortunately.
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Do we know all the details now? Compensation and 2024/2025 cap hits?
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Wow the compensation seems brutal.
Anyway, like I said, he was always tradeable this year. I just thought it would be for 1st this year so we can draft his replacement. This seems crazy.
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16 picks in and only 3 defensive players.
I am going to look back and try to find out if anything remotely close happened in recent years.
Edit: Actually it did. 3 years ago, only 4 defensive players were selected in top 16 - Horn, Surtain, Parsons and Collins.
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Sportrac has everybody in now. DeShawn Williams vet min with only $15k guaranteed (great), Clapp also close to vet min with $287k dead cap if cut and Austin Johnson $2.3M cap hit with $1.2M in void years.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/
Sportrac says we have $8.5M cap space, Overthecap has us at $7.5M.
Which is interesting, since it seems like a free money now. After 1 June, we will have $10M more, which is just enough for rookies (~$2M), 52nd and 53rd player (less than $2M), PS players ($4M) and some in season injury moves ($2-3M).
So whatever we have now seems like money we can freely use. I wonder if Beane planned to sign somebody more expensive and it didn't work out.
It also shows why Beane didn't convert everything he could from Allen's contract this year - he didn't need to.
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1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:
But are they willing to drop down to 44 and miss out on their WR. If they are open to DT as the pick at 44 than I agree but if their looking solely at WR like a lot of people think 44 might be too big of a dropWe could do this, and then move up from 44. 4th comp gets you to 40, add one of our late 5th and we could go back to 37 or so.
If we could get Legette this way at 37 and add pick 77 I would be more than happy. But it is very risky so I'd probably rather stay put and pick our WR at 28.
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I just hope that Williams has close to zero guaranteed money (like Toohill, unlike Morrow), so he can be easily cut when we keep 5-6th round rookie.
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Contract details are on Sportrac.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/taron-johnson-25222/
Extension saved about $4M cap space this year, next year's cap hit only $8M.
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Appreciate effort put into this mock. Also would be very pleased with the outcome for the Bills.
One question though - why would Vikings do this trade? Bears are not taking 2nd QB and Jets won't draft one this year. Do you think someone could jump them for McCarthy?
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52 minutes ago, Virgil said:
Solid signing and good run stuffer. I like that Beane has been able to fill out the defensive interior line in FA and allows more flexibility in the draft.
I am really confused what position this guy plays. In OP Schefter says he's a DE, you say he is a run stuffing DT.
So what is he in our scheme? Oliver backup or Jones backup?
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5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I’ll ask it differently, “how many available roster spots do you see?” For me, it isn’t about 2 bites at the apple in the 6th. I’m using that ammo, to move up in the 6th and draft a guy that I have a 4th round grade on (for example). I am trusting my scouting. Adding 7 or 8 guys in the draft would still be A TON. There just aren’t the roster spots to support it.
Kirby, could you please elaborate on this? Because right now, I see more than enough space for 10 rookies.
By my count there are 42 NFL players on our roster, who were there last year or who we signed this year and we can reasonably predict they end up on 53. This group includes Justin Shorter, Mack Hollins, Kingsley Jonathan, Nicholas Morrow and Damar Hamlin, and I really don't think these are locks to make the roster (and I think we could even include in this group guys like Quintin Morris and maybe Ty Johnson depending on his contract).
So right now, there are at least 11 spots totally open right now, possibly up to 16-17.
Then there is group of players like Eli Ankou, Tommy Doyle, K.J. Hamler or Andy Isabella who are fringe NFL players, but I really don't think these guys prevent us from keeping any promising 6th round draft pick.
I think this is actually a great year to draft 10 rookies and hope that we hit on 8+ enough that they are worth a roster spot. There is enough room. I really hope that Beane resists temptation to fill roster spots with washed vets before the draft and give them some guaranteed money, so they will be harder to cut and will block roster spots for some young talent. Add a starting safety and then wait for the draft (or don't give any guaranteed money at least).
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Who Should the Bills take at #28 (TSW Mock 2.0 2024) *Mitchell has been removed please revote!
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by No_Matter_What
I love this result, it is at least good experiment to see what a trade down like this can mean and who can we miss out on. Or, on the other side, who we can still get lower. 41 is little too low for my taste but still a good exercise.