Avisan

For what it's worth, "I have spoken" is basically 1B to "This is the way"'s 1A. As in, it's just kinda goofy and he's likely having a giggle while you are working yourself up over a Star Wars quote. He didn't attack anybody on a personal level, just dropped a Mandolorian quote. I think you can probably ease off, here.

Remind us again why you consider this elaborate fan fiction of yours to be a probable scenario? What evidence do you have to support any of these ideas?

Right? I know some folks get grumpy when a certain card is mentioned, but come on now people

Buddy, Mario Manningham and David Three both did basically nothing with their careers outside of improbable Superbowl catches for the Giants. Diggs was a middling-to-poor postseason player for us that ALSO did not have any big step-up moments. That is eminently replaceable in the postseason, and there is no reason why a different player would be any less likely to step up than he was. Even the very best teams have a pretty poor probability of winning the playoffs in any given year. Let's do a math exercise. Team X is a dominant roster with great coaching. They catch a first round bye. They have an 80% chance to win the divisional roound. They have a 75% chance to win the AFCCG. 70% to beat the best team in the NFC. They are THAT good. What are the odds that they win the Superbowl in this hypothetical? 42%. This utterly dominant team that wins, at worst, 7 out of every 10 games they play against the best the league can offer, would win the Superbowl less than half the time. I would give the Bills a ~10% chance this season, same as about any other season. 75% chance to win the wildcard round with 50/50s the rest of the way, which I feel like lines up pretty well with the past results we've seen.

It might be missing a word or two, but yeah, she got caught on a hot mic and said this essentially verbatim.

I didn't say it was easy. It's never easy. It's still quite possible. We will almost certainly make the playoffs again, and once you're in, anything can happen. Allen is a good enough QB and McDermott is a good enough coach that as long as a few players step up to make a big play or two in the postseason we can plausibly go the distance. Diggs is a very good player, but he didn't ever step up in the postseason so I have no real concerns regarding our postseason chances. I don't think any of our roster losses materially impact our overall chances.

Yes? Why would we not? Diggs does nothing in the playoffs and our defense was a M.A.S.H. unit and we still had a decent shot at it this past season. You don't need the best roster in the league to win the Superbowl. You just need to win 3-4 games in a row at the end of the season. Having a better roster makes that easier, but the Giants did it twice with merely decent teams and guys stepping up at the right moments.

Rookie late round pick will likely be CB5. Honestly, we're fine.

Bills players were put in a position to win or tie at the end of regulation. They simply did not make the necessary plays. Coaches did their job.

That is not how probability works.

We did it vs. the Broncos and they completed a prayer ball. Cue the "McDermott is clueless!1!!1" cries, etc. Y'all are exceptionally outcome-based when it comes to determining what is and is not a good call.

It's really difficult to orchestrate assignments and coverage exchanges in realtime

This is literally the only reasonable bar for success. Demanding a championship or bust is perhaps understandable on an emotional level for any given low-information fan, but that is not a reasonable way to run a successful NFL organization. It isn't as though the rabid masses would give the Bills a free pass if they did, in fact, do a major shakeup and still didn't win make the Superbowl. They would be furious that the Bills had not conjured up a championship out of the ether and demand more heads roll. How could they fail, when blowing up a successful, functional organization was such an obvious and easy move to make? The league's history is littered with great QBs who never won a Superbowl. The sense of entitlement it takes to presume that a great QB will get there year-after-year unless the coaching is terrible is beyond absurd.

There is far less room for error in big play offenses, what amount to variance swings will just wreck you sometimes.

Honestly this is just idiocy Dink and dunk against the Cover 2 shell is what sets up the big shots you want to see, and it worked all night

Allen took that timeout, you could literally see him call for it on the broadcast.

It worked. If we stuck to that plan, we likely put up 31 points on an exceptional Chiefs D despite no field position help. Brady was ruthless with the dink and dunk. Sometimes that is what the defense is giving you.

Yeah no, I was mentally begging him the entire time to take the Diggs crosser, it's the right call there. If you take the endzone strike there, it's gotta be perfect. It's a tough throw, despite our QB being good enough to make it look easy most of the time. Still thrilled to have him as our QB. We were very close to pulling it off. Just couldn't quite come up with all of the plays when we needed them.

That's the whole point of getting the TD with < 1 min on the clock and no KC timeouts. That is MUCH harder to pull off than 13 seconds.

He almost did. Then it was abandoned after the two-minute warning. If Allen learned how to dink and dunk, and then punish defenses for dropping out of the Cover 2 shell to stop it he's be more or less unstoppable. He was nearly unstoppable THIS game despite receiver drops, low overall yards/attempt, etc. 31 points on this Chiefs D despite no help in the field position department would have been an absurd feat.

You didn't answer the question. Did Brady not have a killer instinct because he killed you 6-7 yards at a time?

Number one priority is to tie or go ahead with no time left on the clock for the Chiefs. A decade ago this was commonly and thoroughly understood, and I'm frankly confused at why so many posters here aren't getting it.

This is nonsense. Did Brady not have a killer instinct because he killed you 6-7 yards at a time?

The Cover 2 shell came back into vogue because the current top QBs won't punish you for it. The methodical ball control offense WORKS. It wrecks the Cover 2 shell. Slowly, but surely. It worked all game. We screwed ourselves on the final drive by gunning for the endzone instead. If we had kept with that offense, we likely win the game. Putting up 31 on that Chiefs D would have been an amazing feat, and that ball control offense would have done it. We watched the Patriots pull it off year after year in that exact fashion, much to our despair.

Yeah, I don't get the fear narrative. It isn't about fear; it's about delivering the mortal wound. Getting the TD with 1:55 left, 2 TOs for KC, and 4-down territory all drive isn't mortal. Not when your defense is barely able to be fielded. The mortal wound is grinding down the clock and getting the TD at the end. Brady and Manning take the underneath there. They take the high percentage passes that they know WILL lead to the endzone at the end, or at worst set up a chip shot field goal with minimal time left. Brady and Manning felt inevitable. They would grind it down the field and break you, and all you could do was watch. We spent two decades under Brady's heel, we all should KNOW what that looks like. Allen went for the lower-probability, survivable strike instead and didn't connect. Still beyond thankful we have him. It's okay to acknowledge what he lacks compared to the true greats, though. < 1 minute to go and both timeouts spent. We were on track to do it.