Mikey152

Whether or not I agree with the terminology, I totally get what you are trying to say and I agree with you...he was not an efficient passer, and part of that was due to ball placement. What I also think is, under certain (ie ideal) circumstances, he throws darts and can do so to all areas of the field. It’s those throws where he needs to gear down a little or quickly move his feet that he seems to be less consistent with...I’m not sure he will ever be more than ok at them. It’s the downside of having a rocket arm...you have to take so much off to get the proper trajectory, it’s almost impossible to maintain proper mechanics consistently...if you’ve ever tried to throw a football to a small child, it’s almost impossible to slow your arm down and still throw an accurate spiral. The other misfires are often timing related...throwing to a spot too early or too late (or right on time but your receiver is early or late) can have a huge impact, and throwing as hard as he does only exacerbates the problem because receivers don’t have as much time to adjust and make the throw look even wilder than it really is. I think those issue will work themselves out over time.

Precision can be calculated in one of two ways when it comes to throwing a football, and neither of them are possible during a live game due to A) a sample set of 1 per pass attempt (ie every attempt is different and has a million variables) and B) Throws are spacial, time-relevant, and optimal location (and therefore intent) is contingent on situation. So the reality is...we really only are talking about accuracy here. But, semantics aside...clearly the evaluation of accuracy is flawed for some of the same reasons (B) and because an "accurate pass" is subjective...it's why opinions on Josh Allen's accuracy varies so wildly. I don't have stats to back it up, but I would say that from a strictly observational standpoint...When Josh Allen has time and a clean pocket, he has the ability to deliver the football as accurately and consistently (ie precisely) as anyone in the league to all levels of the field. I don't recall too many misfires, and conversely saw quite a few dead-accurate passes, in this scenario. I think he would destroy other QBs at an "accuracy" skills challenge, for example. Where he struggles is when he is rushed, trying to do too much, and misreads/miscommunication. Those are all things that get better with experience, IMO (and with better teammates)...and I think for those of us that have watched him, it's why he looks a lot better when you watch him than he does on paper. I think OP's analysis at least partially helps to bridge that gap.

These threads are often so misguided...I'm pretty sure some of you would replace half the roster with rookies and other teams trash if you could, then you would complain when they suck. You'd also complain when our trash looks great on other teams. I still remember threads about how the Bills had the "worst WR corps in the league outside of Sammy" when they had Watkins, Woods, Goodwin and Hogan on the same team. Whoops. What this team really needs is...time. Maybe some consistency. And a quarterback (which takes, get this, time). Zay Jones is more than a Slot receiver. Dawkins is more than a guard. Hell, even the bottom half of the receiver roster has potential under the right circumstances..they are just young. This team should look for a few upgrades in FA at any position on the roster, including defense. Then draft BPA not counting QB. In a case where grades are close, I would hope they lean towards WR, OL or TE...but I also wouldn't mind a stud DLineman.

That is just something people say...It's not real. And I am not just talking about 40 times. The jumps in particular are fairly indicative of a player's explosive ability.

Ah, so you prefer anecdotal to analytical...gotcha The point is he is a good athlete, so if he is "playing slow" it's not because of his physical ability. Personally, I think it's bs until somebody shows me the contrary. He;s been able to get separation, even last year...he just has had problems dropping it or being targeted so far in his young career. Jerry Rice had similar problems. It happens to the best of them.

Somebody earlier said Zay isn't fast/explosive/etc... At the combine (which was just last year for him) he measured 6'2" and 201 pounds with a 4.45 40, 36.5 inch vertical, 133 inch broad jump and 4.01/11.17 shuttles. Those were all top 12 times in his class, and some of them were top 3-5 For comparison, Sammy Watkins was 6'1" 211. 4.43, 34, 126, 4.34 and Julio Jones was 6'3" 220, 4.38, 38.5. 135. 4.23/11.07

Something you have to realize is measuring ball velocity at the combine is not a separate test where the QB is intentionally trying to throw as hard as they can...it is measured when they are going through the passing drills. So while some QBs might try and throw with max or near-max velocity, others (especially those who are less accurate or throw very hard) might try to take something off to throw a more accurate, catchable ball. As an overall list, it's useful information...but it's also not an end all, be all. Also, for the record Josh Allen was at like 62 mph at the combine.

Identifying a blitzer pre-snap isn't always possible. It's called disguising coverage and happens all the time. Identifying blitzers POST-Snap IS his job...he failed the first time, but not the second. That is the point. He calls out the mike maybe...but he probably doesn't have audibles for the RB in a preseason game to pick up safety blitzes. That's not the kind of thing you just do on the fly. And all of this is assuming that the safety blitz was identifiable pre-snap. Chances are it was not...especially since there wasn't any game planning.

I feel like you are saying this because that is what Tim Couch said... It is his job to read the safeties, because that is what tells him what kind of coverage they are in...It is NOT necessarily his job to set protections and since this was week two of preseason, I highly doubt they had safety blitz audibles assigned. He missed it the first time. He did what he could with the play that was called the second time. Thats all we know. Anything beyond that is you putting your narrative one something you just don't know.

You don't know what play he killed, but it was likely either just flipping sides or changing from one run to another, which is a matter of counting defenders in the box and on each side of the center. It has nothing to do with reading coverage and identifying the pass rush, then changing to a play and/or blocking scheme that attacks it. One is basic football that people on this board could do...the other requires game planning and installation during the week

You assume that he is calling the blocking scheme and that they have audibles installed in a preseason game...my guess is they do not. He threw it to his hot read...that is likely all he had regarding options.

That's the point...he did. He got rid of the football that time.

You're completely missing the point about being drafted in the top 10. Guys don't wind up there by accident. Some dude drafted in the third round with a sub 57% completion percentage might have unfixable issues. But a guy drafted in the top 10 either has a trump card or, upon further scrutiny, his stats weren't a true reflection of his ability. Maybe both.

You literally said "guys that have accuracy issues" then clarified via 57% comp %. Out of curiosity...how many of those guys were top 10 picks? My guess is we are talking about less than 5. Not exactly a huge sample size. So maybe, just maybe...there is some context there that makes him different? I mean, his numbers on third down, completion % wise, were similar to Darnold and Rosen.

Types of passes, too... It was nice to see him show he is capable of running an efficient offense against the Browns, where they moved the ball without a bunch of chunk plays.

Again, completion percentage and accuracy are not the same thing. That's the whole point. I mean, do you really think that Joe Flacco is more accurate than Dan Marino?

What, exactly, is a "guy like him"? This is the problem with your whole argument, in a nutshell. It has ZERO context. Low completion percentage = inaccurate. It doesn't take much to see that narrative was incorrect.

People said he was a "project" because they thought he had crappy accuracy and sloppy footwork. But the reality is he is a smart kid who ran what was quite possibly the most (or second most behind Rosen) pro-style offense of all the rookies. Not to mention his physical tools which can mask some of the typical rookie problems. He had the highest floor, not the lowest...once you got past the narrative that he couldn't hit the broadside of a barn, anyway (bear in mind this sentiment was based almost 100% on his stats and not his actual ability)

That's funny, because you seemed pretty sure before... Josh Allen was all set to be the poster child for the analytics crew...I think it's hilarious that he is shaping up to be the exact opposite, basically proving that a lot of those numbers are contextual and can't be compared in a vacuum.

Maybe he isn't explosive in pads (or you are just making this up based on what you read), but his jumping numbers (which are shown to correlate the most with explosiveness) at the combine were incredible...39.5 inch vert and over 11 feet in the broad jump indicate he is extremely explosive. I don't think he is very physical, though...and because he is tall, he isn't exactly agile, either. Maybe that's what you're actually seeing

Honestly, I feel like Incognito and Wood regressed quite a bit last season... Wood was abused routinely and Incognito was seemingly good for at least one holding penalty a game, which is a clear sign of losing a step at LG where you generally aren't blocking guys in front of you...he just wasn't getting to his spot fast enough. The Bills might miss their leadership, but their on-field play wasn't what it once was...whether it was old age or scheme? Not sure

This is a good post, and I generally agree with your points...but I think you are a little off (and it's not just you) when you say he was poor in college. Inefficient, maybe, but not poor...it was clear that he was carrying his team, though...they were really bad before he got there and when he was hurt, and an 8 win bowl team when he played. Serious question: Would you take Tyrod Taylor right now over Brett Favre in his prime? Do you know who would? Analytics...because their model rewards "efficiency" and has no measure for things like plays left on the field. The year the Packers won the SB, Brett Favre completed 59.9% of his passes.

My problem with Analytics, as used in football, can be summed up very concisely with this article... "Old School" vs. "New School": JT Barrett completed 64.7% of his passes for 35 TDs and 8 INTs in the Big 10 this year. Those are better numbers than anybody but Mayfield w/ regards to the big 4, and that doesn't even include his rushing stats. On paper, he should have been a top choice in the draft this year...and yet it was his physical tools and game tape that kept him from getting drafted anywhere near the top of the draft. Don't even get me started on Guys like Mike White and Luke Falk. This, in a nutshell, is the problem. All these indicators, like comp%? They only appear to be "predictive" once you have already evaluated a prospect by more traditional means, like size, arm strength, level of comp, scheme, etc...so for them to in turn be so cavalier about the value of traditional scouting is hilarious. Also, call me crazy but I don't think I need analytics to know that most guys that had bad numbers in college probably won't have good numbers in the pros....but to act like there can't be justfiable rationale for it to occur based on a flawed statistical sample? That's bastardizing stats.

I think this has more to do with demographics and socio-economics than it does weather. For example, Ohio in general has a ton of overweight people...but in the small, wealthy, town I live in near Columbus there is an abnormally high number of attractive people relative to the rest of the state. Better food, better education, better means...and likely more of an emphasis on appearance. It would stand to reason that, on average, places near the beach would also tend to have wealthier people...and people who enjoy active lifestyles.

On the decline? They're 26. Matthews was playing with a rookie and Cam was hurt and had easily his worst season in the NFL. As for Hogan and Woods...More Yards and touchdowns on less targets as #2 or 3 options in a better offense. Goodwin with more targets and more varied targets at that. It really is that simple. What makes him a #2? When healthy, he is a nice X receiver, which is what this team has desperately needed. He might not be a number #1 in the sense that he will put up game breaking numbers, but he is a #1 in the sense that he will draw and can beat man coverage, allowing the other receivers to play off the line of scrimmage and be schemed open.