SoTier
-
Posts
5,585 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by SoTier
-
-
39 minutes ago, Overdue Bill said:
I think taking a second-tier QB in the 2nd or 3rd rounds would be a better value. I hope we don't trade away our 2 1st rounds picks for a QB. The position is such a crap shoot that we would be better served shoring up the O-Line and the defensive backfield in the first round.
Well, expecting much more than a backup QB from a QB drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round is like putting your money down on the lottery IMO. Between 2000 and 2014, the only mediocre or better starting QBs to come out of Rounds 2-3 of the draft are:
- 2000 - Drew Brees (2)
- 2002 - Josh McCown (3)
- 2004 - Matt Schaub (3)
- 2011 - Andy Dalton (2)
- 2012 - Russsell Wilson (3)
- 2012 - Nick Foles (3)
- 2013 - Mike Glennon (3)
- 2014 - Derek Carr (2)
- 2014 - Jimmy Garoppolo (2)
That's only 25% "success" with setting the bar low enough that McCown and Glennon make the cut (9/36).
If you raise the bar higher and remove those two the success percentage drops to less than 20% (7/36.
Unless the Bills sign Cousins, I wouldn't be good with taking a round 2 or 3 QB unless he was somebody who was considered a first rounder but who fell in the draft for some reason. A better OL would never turn Chad Henne or Brock Osweiler into decent starting QBs.
-
2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
With all due respect, stats just aren't on your side wrt criticism of Watkins.........he's just THAT young still that you have to respect the upside.
The point of using the Moulds comparison is really to show just how young Sammy is.
Going into his age 25 season.....which Sammy will be THIS YEAR......... Moulds had done nothing and was considered a likely cut going into camp. It was THAT bad. He was a bust.
Most WRs take 3 years to reach their primes, and many never do. Nelson Agholor was another young WR who was largely considered a bust until his third season (2017). WR is a much harder transition from college to pros than most fans realize, especially when they see a handful of WRs breaking out as rookies.
-
4 minutes ago, drf1835 said:
If the top Bills personnel have a set plan "right now" regarding who to exactly sign or get in the draft then I will take their credentials away
I disagree with this because I think that the Bills need to have a firm plan on how they want to move forward, because without it, they can't set priorities. It shouldn't be a detailed plan with specifics but they definitely need an outline to guide them from step 1 to step 7 or 10 or whatever. The first few steps are detailed and specific and the later steps are naturally more fluid, but the plan needs to be "set" enough so that the Bills don't waste resources pursuing tangents.
They need to have decided already on who among their own FAs they are going to re-sign and who they are going to let walk. They also need to have decided who they want to release and who they want to try to trade as well as what compensation they want. They need to have decided how they are going to proceed in FA: pursue a few big names or look for affordable but promising FAs coming off their rookie contracts (like Poyer).
The Bills also need to have a good idea about which positions they want to fill with FAs and which they want to fill through the draft. By now, the FA list should be specific with names and ranks for each position. That's based on the available FA pool, who might join it, and what their scouts tell them about the quality and quantity of positions they need to fill in the draft. The Bills should also have a list of draft prospects they wish to interview at the Combine next week.
Successful organizations don't happen haphazardly. One of the reasons for the drought was that the Bills were run without solid planning for a couple of decades. In NE, they draft an OLer in the first or second round every few years so that as their starters leave, they have a youngster ready to step in. When Pro Bowler Matt Light retired, Nate Solder stepped in. The Bills haven't ever done that since Bill Polian left. Instead the Bills cut Pro Bowl guard Ruben Brown in 2004 and didn't replace him with an NFL caliber guard until 2009 (Andy Levitre). After trading Jason Peters to Philly (and getting fleeced) in 2009, the Bills didn't add a quality LT until 2012.
Having a plan doesn't mean that the team doesn't ever deviate from it when circumstances require. A set plan is a roadmap of how to get to be a team that wins regularly, and hopefully, a lot. Yeah, there's detours and occasionally roadblocks, but without an idea of where you want to go and how to get there, you just spin your wheels in the mud. I'm hopeful that the Bills have at least gotten themselves a roadmap.
-
If the Bills signed McKown for $10 million, they would be paying $18.6 million in cap space for a starting QB not nearly as good as Taylor. That sounds like a plan because we all know that it's not possible for Taylor to play better in a new offense after one bad season in a lousy situation while McKown is surely going to be better than Taylor based on putting up numbers not all that dissimilar to Taylor's 2017 numbers.
-
10 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:
In full disclose - I'm not the biggest Barnwell fan. I think that Bill Barnwell is an ok reporter. I took major issue for his pieces defending Tyrod Taylor to the extent that brought racism into the discussion. It resulted in me calling Barnwell out on Twitter and him responding with a snarky remark and blocking me.
So here are Bill's 5 moves that he thinks the Bills should make this offseason. Maybe it's just me, but it seems that he doesn't really follow the team very closely - which would be understandble as a national NFL reporter. While everything he suggests make sense - I feel like the thinking here is very basic and not very insightful. Let me know your thoughts
In case anyone wants the reader's digest version -- here it is:
1. Sign Vontae Davis
2. Move on from Tyrod Taylor
3. Explore the trade market for Cordy Glenn.
4. Bring back Preston Brown and Kyle Williams.
5. Acquire two quarterbacks
This is news? He's obviously been monitoring TBD and has spun the most popular ideas into one article. BTW, #2 AND #5 are essentially the same thing -- moving on from Taylor implies that they need two QBs, a starter and a rookie.
-
9 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
Benjamin scored 3 TDs to Watkins' 8. How did he have a better year?
He's on the Bills ... ergo, better year.
-
The US Curling team skipped by John Schuster just beat the Canadians in the curling semi-finals, advancing to the gold medal round for the first time ever with a 5-3 win.
The US is guaranteed at least a silver for the first time ever. The US plays Sweden on Saturday for the gold. Here's the story: US Curling Semi Finals
-
7 hours ago, PolishDave said:
?
Union pensions = legal Ponzi schemes
It sucks losing a job.
In this day and age it is very risky if you don't keep learning new skills and developing yourself. You pretty much have to prepare for your eventual firing because it is going to happen at some point.
That is of course unless you work for local, county, state or Federal government. In that case, get yourself the best recliner you can find and enjoy sleeping your way through life on the back of (actually) hard working taxpayers.
So, why don't you apply for some of those choice jobs with your state or local government so you can get yourself a secure job and a pension if you're so jealous of public employees? Not well educated enough (teacher, engineer, bank examiner, computer programmer, accountant, lawyer, etc)? Not brave enough (law enforcement, fireman, border agent, park ranger)? Not skilled enough (heavy equipment operator, building inspector, facility manager)? Not up to dealing with troubled, scary, disgusting people (social workers, mentally ill, convicts, parolees)? Or maybe you don't like public employee salaries which tend to lag behind similar positions in most technical, medical, business, and legal fields except at the entry level.
-
36 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
Anyone but the extremists realizes that this is a prudent course. You don't make a change at QB just for the sake of it because it can always be worse.
That's what happened in 2013 ...
34 minutes ago, McBean said:Another great reason to turn off the TV on Sundays in 2018 to spend time with family.
I can’t watch another Bills game with Tyrod Taylor under center.
Cya, dude.
25 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:Russell Wilson has.
And he was short to boot.
4 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:We won't have a better QB on the roster by the time his bonus is due either.
I actually wonder if the Bills are willing to eat the $6 million to increase Taylor's trade value.
I really don't think the Bills are likely to trade Taylor unless they were to make a deal with Cleveland for the #4 pick with Taylor as their bridge QB.
-
IMO, this should actually make the "draft a QB" crowd very happy. If true, it seems a pretty strong indication that the Bills aren't going to pursue Cousins as a long term starter and are going to draft a QB.
-
3
-
-
2 hours ago, RochesterRob said:
Getting somebody as good as Cutler, Dalton, etc. is probably the most reasonable expectation here.
It might be realistic but fans aren't realistic. Unless the team was good enough to win a Super Bowl or two (like Eli), my guess most would be very unforgiving.
2 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:We always look at trades and try to debate who won the trade? Was it a win for Buffalo? McCoy Trade was a win for Buffalo.
so how does trading everything for A QB become a win?
looking to get people’s idea of what a win would be for Buffalo.
maybe I went overboard with my expectations. But this QB needs to seriously move the needle.
Getting an elite QB is the only way to "win" after giving up a bunch of picks to trade up to the top 5 for a QB.
-
4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
Prototypical size, very good arm strength, excellent athlete who makes plays with his legs, intelligent, reads defenses, throws with timing and anticipation, can make plays outside of structure.
Wentz significantly improved his play, too, from his rookie season to his sophomore. Taking a big step forward in his second year as a starter is usually a sign that a young QB is the real deal as demonstrated by guys like Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russel Wilson among others.
-
42 minutes ago, rodneykm said:
I never once asked you to believe me nor do I care if you do or don't. Cheers.
Dude, I'm much more tolerant of QBs than a lot of posters here -- I know this simply because I don't hate Tyrod or Fitzy simply because they weren't franchise QBs -- but if the Bills gave up 4 or 5 picks to move up to the top of the draft and all they got was somebody only about as good as Cutler, Flacco, Dalton or Tannehill, I'd be po'd big time. I wouldn't be upset if the Bills sat at 21 and got a clone of one of them, but giving up the tops of two drafts for a Flacco or Tannehilll is criminal by any standard anyone could possibly devise ... and the Buffalo Bills fan base in general isn't nearly as tolerant as I am.
-
1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I think that it would be interesting to see how many QBs meet that criteria and how many were drafted in a trade up. Maybe Eli? Maybe Elway?
Actually, Eli wasn't technically a trade-up as he was traded for Rivers and picks. I think that might have been true of Elway, too. Between the 2000 and 2015 drafts, trade ups for first round QBs yielded 3 fails: Losman (2004), Sanchez (2009), and Griffin (2012).
1 hour ago, rodneykm said:Honestly, just be solid at the position for as long as you can. Of course, I'd have hopes of many pro bowls and such.
I don't believe you. Look at all the whining about Watkins "not being worth 2 firsts". If the Bills gave up a boatload of picks to move into the Top 5 to take a QB and he wasn't at least as good as Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees (ie, an elite QB), he'd be crucified, so the OP's criteria is probably far more realistic about fans' expectations than yours.
1 hour ago, kdiggz said:I posted that I thought Josh Rosen's NFL comparison would be Eli Manning and I had numerous people respond that he's not worth trading up for if he's only as good as Eli Manning. There are a lot of delusional fans on this forum.
Not delusional at all. Maybe you're willing to pay Nieman Marcus prices for Walmart quality but most people aren't. I don't doubt that knowing how both QBs turned out, many if not most Giants fans would say that they'd have preferred that their team have kept Rivers. Eli's two Super Bowl victories have been the only reason that Giants fans haven't turned on him although those victories may not save him if he doesn't play better in 2018.
-
1
-
-
6 hours ago, Paulus said:
Honestly, the more I think about it the more OP is wrong.
Ask yourself this: "Would you pick a player in the 4th round that you knew would give your team the same production Corner gave the Bills or an unknown fourth rounder(someone the scouts pick, unknown NFL quality)?"
I think I'd pick Corner more often than I'd take a scout pick/unknown NFL quality. At least 4 of every 5 times I picked in the fourth.
Booo!!! Change yo Corner hate, OP!!!
If a team gets a solid solid starter or a reliable sub or rotational player out of any guy drafted on Day 3 (Rounds 4-7) that's a bonus not "a miss" IMO. It's virtually impossible for Day 3 guys to "bust" because the ceiling for Day 3 players is probably ST player. Most Day 3 guys don't make it out of preseason unless they can play ST or win a slot on a practice squad. Corner was a "hit".
-
I have no problem with an OLer at 21 or 22, but drafting a DB in the first will tell me that however much the new regime seems to be an improvement over the old regime, nothing much seems to change. It's not like the Bills don't need an upgrade at several other positions ... say RB, DT, LB ... even if they couldn't trade up or didn't want the QB(s) they could get.
-
50 minutes ago, Steptide said:
I have a gut feeling that jauron was picking the draft in those days. I mean, would any gm pick Aaron Maybin in the first round? I feel like the entire bills front office in those days had absolutely no idea what it was doing
I think Jauron had significant input into whom the Bills drafted because most of the players drafted during his tenure tended to fit the mold that Jauron liked best: fast, smaller players or "lunchpail" players. During this period (2006-2009), the only "star" or "difference maker" that the Bills drafted was Marshawn.
26 minutes ago, BillsVet said:We haven't had a Brandon thread in a long time. And thank goodness because there was a time it seemed like one started every day.
That said, he had no business being a NFL GM and I remember reading that other team execs at the 2008 Combine were snickering at his presence there.
I can at least say that Buffalo finally has a GM who is suited and not wed to protecting his job or trying to obtain another promotion at OBD. I have supreme confidence that the current leadership is suited to the modern game and won't be making picks to largely sell tickets.
Brandon came to the Bills from MLB where his claim to fame was that he successfully deconstructed the Florida Marlins, ruthlessly selling off the team's personnel assets and plunging the Marlins from first to worst in a single season. Since he became Wilson's surrogate with the Bills, he was undoubtedly good at seeing that the Bills improved their bottom line no matter how poorly organized/run the Bills were as a football team, and that's what counted with Wilson.
-
6 hours ago, Luka said:
6 rushing TDs and 66 1st downs out of their run game last year. For comparison the Bills had double the touchdowns and nearly double the 1st downs and we were still middle of the pack. Barkley seems like a no brainer for them.
The Browns could take Barkley at #1 and a QB other than Rosen at #4 ... or another player at #4 if they signed Cousins ... and avoiding getting sucked into a pissing contest with Rosen in the process.
I'm not saying that the Browns should or would do that, but with 2 firsts in the top five, a boatload of other picks, and plenty of cap space, they have lots of options. Trading away one of their premier picks to get additional lower ones when they already have plenty just doesn't seem to make sense.
-
5 minutes ago, Luka said:
Why doesn't anyone have the Giants picking Barkley? Eli and that offense would certainly benefit from having a top running game.
I think this is very likely, far more likely than the Giants taking a QB with that pick while Eli is still on the roster.
-
12 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:
So have he Jets.
Cousins can't carry an offense.
If he's not gone by the draft, he will be had at a discount.
I'm with the others who don't think Cousins goes to the Jests. I don't think living in the NYC metro necessarily appeals to him.
I'm not sure why you are so convinced that Cousins is going to bust, but the reality is that any QB not named Tom Brady struggles to carry an offense when they don't have much of one, including Aaron Rodgers when most his WRs were knocked out of games late in the season a few years ago. Cousins is at least on a par with Dalton and Flacco IMO, and Flacco won a Super Bowl.
12 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:I think people will be shocked when he signs that he didn't just go to the highest bidder
He is going to leave money on the table to go to a better team. The Jets may back up the Brinks truck, but I think he takes less to go to a team like Arizona or Denver taking less money per year then he could have gotten. From everything he has said, he is looking for term more then money. He wants to go somewhere closer to winning and wants a long term deal. If its all about money he would let himself get franchise tagged again.
If the Bills aren't in, I think the front runners are Denver then Arizona, Minnesota could also be in the running if they are interested. Arizona has a decent team in need of a QB, Denver is the same and would have had a better record with a good QB. Minnesota was close to a SB birth and now needs to sign a QB this year. The Jets and Browns can pay him whatever he wants, but are much further away from contending then just a better QB.
I agree. I think with Minnesota it depends upon whether they are interested in Cousins; I think they keep Keenum and Bridgewater myself. I believe I read somewhere that Jax just gave Bortles an extension, so that means that they're out of the Cousins sweepstakes, leaving Denver, Phoenix, and the Bills.
-
10 minutes ago, Cmdjr85 said:
Good kicker is one of the most important positions on the team. More often than not games are gonna come down to the kicking game.
Oakland has taken two kickers in the first round: punter Ray Guy with #23 in 1973 and place-kicker Sebastian Janikowski with #17 in 2000. Guy was inducted into the HOF in 2014.
-
1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:
...trucking and insurance were his two major entities......I believe he also loaned $400,000 to the Raiders to keep them afloat......he offered to loan money to the then Boston Patriots as well, but they declined..........
Exactly. The idea that Wilson was poor is simply untrue. His net worth eventually increased because he owned the Bills but he wasn't dependent upon the team for his living. In the 1960s or 1970s, Wilson also raced Thoroughbred horses, and some of his were pretty good runners. Wilson was just a wealthy individual who was careful with his money and didn't waste it.
-
1
-
-
On 2/19/2018 at 11:25 PM, Dkollidas said:
For those who don’t recall:
Basically Eli Manning was the #1 QB.
-San Diego had the first overall pick.
-Eli said he’d rather sit out a year than play for the Chargers.
-San Diego drafted Manning, and made a deal with the Giants after the fact. The Giants, selecting Philip Rivers, made the following trade;
The New York Giants received:
- Eli Manning, QB
The San Diego Chargers received:
- Philip Rivers, QB
- 2004 3rd-round pick (Nate Kaeding, PK)
- 2005 1st-round pick (Shawne Merriman, OLB)
- 2005 5th-round pick (traded to TB for Roman Oben, OT)
Any chance the Browns do this with Rosen? Maybe select him 1st overall, and either find a partner to swap QB’s with, or since they have the pick, take another guy at #4 and then trade Rosen?
I know now it’s complicated and unlikely, but if they believe he’s the best quarterback, I could see their reasoning for taking the player regardless of what he says about playing for them.
Why would they do this when they already have picks #1 and #4 plus a bunch of others in the first 100 picks (6 I think I read somewhere)? There are a limited number of talented players in any draft, and not all of them are going to be useful to a specific team because of the positions they play/style they play. They have 2 blue chip draft picks which they need to use to grab 2 play makers, so it would be smarter for Cleveland to use both those picks rather than parlay either pick into additional lower picks.
While Rosen may have said he doesn't want to play in Cleveland, he's not the consensus #1 pick or even the consensus #1 QB as Eli was in 2004. There was a standoff between the Mannings and the Chargers FO, and IMO, drafting Eli and then trading him was a face-saving move by AJ Smith & Co. Moreover, if Cleveland thinks he's the best quarterback, why would they be willing to trade him?
-
40 minutes ago, ALF said:
Overpaying for AJ McCarron Would Mark a New Low in NFL QB Desperation
Step right up, one and all, because AJ McCarron is here to inject some unwise quarterback spending into free agency. Which means he's about to make sure all is right in the NFL universe and a sense of normalcy has been restored.
Good article, Alf! McCarron makes Garoppolo look like a grizzled veteran with his 7 starts!
29 minutes ago, PolishDave said:Assuming he doesn't get a long term contract (which is a realistic assumption considering he isn't proven), I think it is possible a team like the Bills could get him on a very short - one year with an option - "prove it" contract like they did with Taylor.
If you are drafting a QB anyway and you want a bridge guy that has potential upside, he makes sense. And he makes sense because he is a pocket passer as Beane has said he wants to get.
If the guy doesn't play well in year 1 - see ya. Rookie plays end of season or next year. If McCarron plays well, then whatever team has him on a short term deal with another QB in the wings - is sitting in pretty.
There is risk because you don't know his downside. But there is potentially big reward if you find out this guy should have been starting over Dalton.
Good fit for a team that is drafting a QB anyway assuming you can get him on a short "prove it" contract.
Well, I hope that team isn't the Bills. I'd rather keep Peterman and draft a rookie because Peterman would be a whole lot cheaper, and I've been a loud advocate of upgrading from Peterman if possible. We've seen the worse of Peterman but who knows how bad McCarron could be if he started several games. The Bills don't need to reprise 2013.
If the best the Bills can do is McCarron, then they'd be better served keeping Taylor for $18+ million a year rather than paying McCarron plus eating nearly $9 million of Taylors dead cap money.
This gets my gander up
in Off the Wall Archives
Posted
It probably was a farmer -- the geese likely were stripping out his winter pastures or his winter wheat crop (if that's a crop in Mizzou) ... or a groundskeeper at a golf course or park. A single brood of Canada geese (parents and that year's goslings) that set up residence on your lake shore or pond side can quickly make that part of your yard (and your dock) unusable.