SoTier
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I loved Mangold when he came out of college (I think the Bills traded back into the first round to take John McCargo with Mangold still available) but I think that ship has sailed. The Bills need to draft a young center, even with one of their first rounders if there's a really good one available. Groy and a Day 1 or Day 2 rookie > Groy and Mangold for 2018 ... and hopefully for the future.
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11 hours ago, Spiderweb said:
Recall the Bengals - Steelers playoff game 2-3 years back? McCarron had positioned the Bengals well for their 1st playoff win under Lewis only to be undone by Jeremy Hill's fumble with minutes left and then a super bonehead penalty by Burfict giving the Steelers thier FG for the win? He looked pretty good in the 4th QTR with the game on the line.
Yeah, and Rob Johnson and Matt Flynn both looked great in a single game ... if I had a $1 for every crappy QB in the last 25 years who looked good for a quarter or even an entire game and then sucked when given a chance to be a regular starter, I could have retired a decade earlier.
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Realistically, good QBs seldom hit FA. Mostly they're back ups, and not necessarily good ones. Cousins is the best FA QB since Peyton was released by Indy. Before that, the best QB to hit FA was Brees. However much some fans may not like it, Taylor may be the best the Bills can do for a veteran QB. Cousins is the only likely FA who would be better, and he's going to command big $$$. Bradford would be better but how long are his gimpy knees going to hold up? The preseason? Half a season? One game? Both Glennon and McKown are career backups.
Cutting Taylor and bringing in McCarron is the definition of cutting off your nose to spite your face. Taylor is not "the answer" but he's certainly better than McCarron. Maybe the Bills can bring back Thad Lewis ...
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2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:
The Buffalo Bills currently have $31,336,937 million in 2018 cap space. Good for 16th in the NFL. Not terrible, but not great.
Which of these moves could you see Beane end up doing? What are the chances that he does them all?
- Releasing QB Tyrod Taylor prior to the March signing bonus deadline would add $15.44 million to the 2018 cap (no-brainer)
- Releasing OG Richie Incognito would add $6.425 million to the 2018 cap.
- Releasing DE Jerry Hughes would add $4.6 million to the 2018 cap.
- Releasing RB Lesean McCoy would add $3.7 million to the 2018 cap.
- Releasing LB Lorenzo Alexander would add $2.85 million to the 2018 cap.
- Releasing OT Jordan Mills would add $1.95 million to the 2018 cap.
- Releasing DE Ryan Davis would add $1.225 million to the 2018 cap.
- Releasing OG Vlad Ducasse would add $1.02 million to the 2018 cap.
Obviously Wood is a complicated situation, but I can't help but think there's a way to eliminate his contract from the cap. If the Bills were somehow able to pull that off, that would add an additional $8.625 million to the 2018 salary cap.
If Beane somehow dumped all of these players (including managing to remove Wood's salary from the cap), that would add $45.835 million to the salary cap, more than doubling it for a grand total of $77.17 million - which would be 5th in the NFL (behind only 49ers, Browns, Colts and barely the Jets).
In addition, they could also make the following moves after June 1st:
- Trading OT Cordy Glenn after June 1st would add $11.25 million to the 2018 cap
- Releasing TE Charles Clay would add $4.5 million to the 2018 cap
- Releasing FB Patrick Dimarco would add $1.55 million to the 2018 cap
- Releasing WR Andre Holmes would add $1.2 million to the 2018 cap
That would add another $18.5 million to fill roster holes.
The questions you have to ask are:
- Is Tyrod Taylor worth $15.44 million? I say no.
- Is Richie Incognito worth $6.425 million? That's a tougher one - I would say no because I think they can get better value than that at the guard position, but I could go either way.
- Is Jerry Hughes worth $4.6 million? I say yes.
- Is Shady worth $3.7 million? I say yes, but I don't feel too strongly about it. IMO we just saw Shady's last fully healthy season.
- Is Lorax worth $2.85 million? I'm on the fence with this one as I think his presence at defensive end could replace Shaq Lawson, in which case we could get a mid-round pick for Shaq.
- Is Jordan Mills worth $1.95 million? I might be in the minority on this one but I say yes. He exceeded expectations in 2018.
- Is Ryan Davis worth $1.225 million? I say definitely yes - adds very good DLine depth for relatively cheap.
- Is Vlad Ducasse worth $1.02 million? Probably depends on the new run scheme.
Thoughts?
1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:I would think that if they release all/most of these veterans that they would want to use all of their draft picks to fill those spots.
In case you don't realize it, the Bills don't have enough draft picks in the entire 2018 draft to fill all the holes they've created, and that's supposing that they were to hit on every pick, including Day 3 picks, which means they'd have to get replacements in FA, which likely would eat up all the "savings" from jettisoning all those players. Just replacing Taylor would likely cost $10 million for somebody no better plus a significant cap hit, so there'd actually be little savings.
Of course, if your aim is for the Bills to actually tank in 2018, your "plan" is probably perfect. A team without a starting QB and an OL isn't likely to win many games.
1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:This is actually a really good point. The one thing breaking the streak gave Beane and McDermott is tremendous security. Not just with the Pegula's but the fans. Granted, that can dissipate quickly in professional sports but if McBeane can't get the QB they want and they look at this team and don't see a contender, they could wipe the slate clean without having to worry about being on the hot seat. It's actually a rare opportunity.
Bull manure. What makes you think that making the playoffs won't make the Pegulas expect more and continuing improvement? Moreover, gutting the team would undermine McDermott's entire "trust the process" mantra with the remaining players.
1 hour ago, BillsVet said:Releasing Incognito is merely cutting off their nose to spite their face. There are others who can be released that would not hurt their 2018 season as much.
If they don't win next season be prepared for people to talk about 2017 being a fluke, especially the way they got it. If they won less than 9 games next season and miss the playoffs, I doubt many people will care about McBeane's job status.
These two know the bar has been set and this off-season needs to be a home run to build on 2017. Plenty of teams can backdoor their way into the playoffs. Real teams improve year over year. McBeane don't want to be the former.
Exactly right.
1 hour ago, Wayne Arnold said:Funny thing about the OLine is that Mills and Ducasse quietly had solid seasons. Ducasse might not be a fit for Daboll's scheme but I don't see him as an automatic cut.
PFF isn't the end-all/be-all, but here are their 2017 grades for our starting OLine...
- LT Dion Dawkins: 74.6 (excellent for a rookie - 33rd rated tackle, above-average)
- LG Richie Incognito: 80.5 (12th rated guard - good but I just wonder how much left he has in the tank)
- C Eric Wood: 68.0 (16th rated center - average)
- RG Vlad Ducasse: 75.5 (24th rated guard, above-average)
- RT Jordan Mills: 65.8 (43rd rated tackle, average)
PFF's algorithm for grading OLers has logical flaws, primarily that they assume they can figure out the blocking assignments from film when they actually can't unless they know exactly what play was called and exactly how it was drawn up so they know the blocking assignments. What's incongruous about PFF's grades is that with these good grades from PFF the Bills OL should have played significantly better on a regular basis than it did. The Bills OL didn't play nearly as well as it had in 2016.
40 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:The only players worth anything are Incognito and McCoy. A OG and a RB, positions easily found in the draft. Glenn is the only player I would consider keeping if healthy.
Famous last words.
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2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:
Just watch the tape of that entire game. Our offensive line was a complete and utter disgrace and probably the worst game they played all year. Yes Nate Peterman had a bad game and 3 of the interceptions were totally on him. But I believe he will improve he may not be a starter but he'll be a very good backup. He will need to build up his arm strength and velocity just like a pitcher.
Shouldn't Peterman have already worked on his arm strength and velocity if he harbored thoughts of playing in the NFL?
38 minutes ago, Wily Dog said:I have seen your posts in previous rtacks and you definitely do not trust the process the Bill's are trying to get the team better. The juvenile comments from 26 are out of lone but i expect them from your posts.
Sorry, but even though the Bills made the playoffs in 2017, there's no proof that "the process the Bill's are trying to get the team better" actually works. Neither McDermott nor Beane have built a successful team on their own; they've only been part of successful teams built by others. Certainly Peterman's poor performance doesn't inspire confidence in Team McBean.
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1 minute ago, JohnC said:
You and I differ. I want him gone. Money spent on a qb who can't run a pro offense is wasted money. I don't see Bradford getting a $20 M contract. As far as the Taylor dead money I rather eat it and move on. If you can't run a pro offense you shouldn't be a starter. I agree with you that Siemian is a serviceable backup. I would rather have him be the starter (short term) over Taylor. I can't tolerate watching such a primitive passing offense in a passing league. It's hideous to watch.
Taylor ran a "pro offense" in 2015 and 2016 when the Bills had an OC who gave the Bills a "pro offense". The "primitive passing offense" was courtesy of Dennison's failings as well as the stupid personnel decisions made by the Bills FO in shipping out all of the Bills starting WRs from 2015 and 2016 as well as letting Gillislee leave, too.
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33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Yes, the questions about him coming out were arm, strength, accuracy and his play under pressure. It appears that those issues were way understated. If he was in this draft he wouldn’t be drafted knowing what we know now. Trade up for your guy and sign a bridge veteran. There is no reason to keep NP around as the distant #3 that will never see the field. If you want to slide him to the PS fine. He’s a dime a dozen guy.
POINT. SET. MATCH. I simply don't understand why so many fans act as if this kid is something more than what he's shown. The guy was a fifth round draft pick for the very basic reason that he lacks most of the physical traits necessary for an NFL QB, and there's no way that he's going to change his arm strength or other physical shortcomings. His ceiling has always been modest backup at best, and he hasn't demonstrated that he's likely to be even that good.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I have to say I'd be surprised if they are willing to go to the $$s Kirk wants. I think they'd rather move up in the draft (people remember the trade back last year but McDermott traded up twice too for Zay and Dion) than do that but I might be wrong.
I think it all depends upon which college QB the Bills like in the draft -- if they like any of them enough to consider trading up -- and if the team thinks it's possible to get to him. In this case, the Bills won't consider Cousins. If they don't like any of the college QBs or if they don't think they can get to him, then maybe Cousins is in play -- if Washington lets him finally walk.
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6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Do position coaches even matter though? I remember everyone being excited Mike Waufle was hired as the DL coach, but our front 4 ended up one of our weakest units. Zay Jones had the same WR coach he had in college when he broke the NCAA record for receptions. In the NFL you either got it or you don't and no position coach is going to change that.
This might be the crux of the problem. Position coaches teach techniques and run through play assignments. I don't think most design plays or defensive coverages. The overall success of an offensive or defensive unit depends upon how the plays/coverages/schemes are drawn up, which are usually the province of the OC or DC along with the HC.
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4 hours ago, reddogblitz said:
If we cut Hotrod we still have 8mil on the cap for him. To break even on what we would have paid him, we'd have 10 mil to sign a QB.
Good luck. Glennon got 15 mil last year.
Numerous posters who want to get rid of Taylor to save money (as opposed to those who just hate him and want him gone no matter the cost) seem to have no idea of how expensive QB are. A veteran backup QB with minimal competence will probably cost $5+ million a year. A veteran backup QB with better skills is going to cost more. This is why many teams draft Day 2 or 3 QBs as backups and keep them until they done with their rookie contracts which are a whole lot cheaper. A QB who could be a "bridge" QB is probably going to cost as much as Glennon or Taylor if not more (like Smith).
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4 hours ago, reddogblitz said:
Scouring the Hinterlands is far from a new thing. Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, and Johnny Unitas were from the Hinterlands too.
My point is that scouting -- finding and evaluating prospects -- is much more thorough than it was in the past. QBs with NFL quality arms and other good physical attributes are going to be drafted even if they go to smaller programs or even to Div II schools (like Flacco). Actually, Warner and Romo, who were UDFAs when they came out (Warner 20+ years ago, Romo 12+ years ago), would likely have been drafted today, even if on Day 3, although generally QBs with NFL arms go on Day 1 and Day 2.
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On 1/26/2018 at 11:32 AM, BrotherChazz said:
Well I was hoping we'd draft several lineman already....so it's just one more to add to the list. Groy is adequate, but not great. Richie is getting older. The entire right side already needed replacing. We're going to have some not so sexy picks come draft day. IMO, this makes the decision to move up for a QB just that much harder. Hard to get rid of good draft picks with so many holes.
I totally agree. They need to take at least one OLer on Day 1 or 2 and at least one or more on Day 3. They need to bring in a bunch of UDFAs, too.
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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:
Ahhh the good Soldier Contracts. I am sick of them. They are players Employees. And a player thay is older coming off IR should not be given big INJ guarantees. But glad Jim the untouchable gets to stick around regime after regime and the player favored contracts just keep coming and coming. Eric being the latest.
I will agree that the Bills write bad contracts, but my problem isn't players getting injured. How come other teams manage to pay several premier players at the same time and still manage to keep several of their home-grown vets coming off their rookie contracts but the Bills "can't afford" to keep most of the good young vets they develop even though they aren't paying for a premier QB and pass rusher? That should be what chaps Bills fans' butts not that the Bills gave a contract to solid player who then suffered a career ending injury.
BTW, Wood was 30 or 31 which is not all that "old" for an OLer who often play into their mid thirties and beyond.
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2 hours ago, LittleJoeCartwright said:
Or letting players leave as free agents and then using their 1st round pick to replace them.
That's all part of not putting winning ahead of profits. The Bills could have had their QB last year but they needed to replace Gilmore ... and don't forget that they also used a second on Zay Jones since they let both Woods and Goodwin go, too. Since the late 1990s, they've used an inordinate number of first and second round draft picks to replace the DBs, WRs, and RBs that they didn't re-sign after their rookie contracts. White is a very nice player, and maybe neither Mahomes nor Watson develop into franchise QBs but they needed a QB in 2017, had an opportunity to take one, and passed on all of them until Day 3. Now, they're exactly where they were last year at this time, only they have the 21st pick rather than the 10th.
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On 1/22/2018 at 11:25 AM, Coach Tuesday said:
He's a good cornerback.
Has anyone noticed in recent history that the Bills (and their fans) have turned on nearly every single player whom they picked high and/or gave a big contract to? The level of buyer's remorse at OBD is incredible.
Dead on!
2 hours ago, SaviorPeterman said:If we wouldn't have found a great (and possibly better) replacement for Gilmore in Tre White I'd certainly be disappointed for letting him walk and sign with the Pats.
But make no mistake about it, Gilmore Island is finally open for business and he's playing the best football of his career for the Pats since coming back from a mid season injury and struggling a bit early in the season.
If Mahomes or Watson go on to become a franchise QB and the Bills fail again to get one of their own, then allowing Gilmore to walk away and replacing him with Tre White may be one of the costliest deals the Bills have ever made ... only time will tell.
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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
Isn't that the truth. Overpaid for Mario, Fitz, Dareus, Clay, Glenn. Maybe that's the only way players will come to or stay in Buffalo? Shady is the only big name player we've had in the last 6-7 years worth the money.
Maybe if the Bills put winning ahead of profits, they'd develop a coherent policy/program in regards to drafting/retaining talent and wouldn't be signing and then cutting veterans.
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1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:
While Wood may or may not have been a top 10 center he was just about always in the top 12. At that point how much effort do you put in chasing down a replacement when you have at a minimum a half dozen other problem areas including RT? As league GM's point out good centers are hard to come by and it's not unusual for a draft not to have anything more than backup up quality or swing guys who can play center. Look at how Atlanta improved when they wrestled away Alex Mack from Cleveland. Some could rightfully argue Mack never planned on going back to the Browns but he was a very valuable free agent to Atlanta and other teams nonetheless.
I agree completely. My complaint with the Bills is that they spend so much draft capital replacing the young vets that they let walk that they don't have enough left to draft and develop young talent in hard to fill positions like OL or QB. I'm not going to complain about the Bills extending solid veterans since that's an improvement over how they've operated in the past.
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3 hours ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:
I could make the arguement that we needed an upgrade at that position. Giving Wood an extension was a poor choice simply based on that. Kudos to Wood for all he did in this community and organization. He will be missed, but I’m not certain that Wood was much more than a McD “locker room guy”. The injury was likely unforeseen, but the quality of play speaks for itself. Wood isn’t a guy I would have offered an extension to begin with.
I'm not going to argue that the Bills didn't/don't need an upgrade at center because I agree that they have needed that for a while. I have been arguing since last summer that the interior of the Bills OL needs upgrading and/or better depth because of age and talent level not to mention how frequently OLers get hurt, as Glenn has shown.
That Wood was never as good a center as Glenn was a left tackle doesn't mean he wasn't worth extending. There may have not been any better options either on the team or available on the FA market. His deal might very well be the going rate for a starting NFL center.
My argument is simply that complaining that Wood's contract was "bad" because of his injury is nothing more than hindsight.
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Wood's contract is only a "bad contract" because he can't play football. Would it have been "bad contract" if it wasn't a long-standing condition but a game injury like what happened to Ryan Shazier?
Maybe the Bills medical staff should have been more thorough but I don't know that teams are necessarily going to do MRIs, xrays, etc if the player hasn't had a history of a specific injury or complaints about pain. It's just one of those "manure happens" situations.
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5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I don't think that's true at all. Yes, scouts are scouring the hinterlands. But NFL history has shown that big physical tools in college are only part of what it takes for NFL success. Intelligence, processing/reaction speed, and even physical development play a role. So does the quality of development a QB receives after he enters the league.
Despite best efforts, scouting is not an exact science.
That's why every year or two there's a Dak Prescott who plays better than 5 of the 7 QB drafted above him, and why the success rate (defined pretty liberally) of top-5 picks is still only 50% overall.
I don't follow college football, so I don't know if there was some reason for Prescott to fall to fourth round, but I think it's still a little early to declare Prescott a "success" on the same level or better as the Cowgirls' QB he replaced, Tony Romo.
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4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:
So Russell Wilson?
He was recent and went late rounds
Or Dak?
Just saying.
Sometimes people slip through.
Even if they are the exception and not the rule.
(Peterman needs a lot of work and a miracle btw, and I'm not okay with hoping for a miracle btw)
Wilson went in round 3. That's not "late rounds". It's Day 2 ... and Wilson's physical limitation was his height, or more precisely, his lack of it. If he'd been 6'2 or so, he'd have gone in the Top 5. NFL GMs want big, tall QBs so they take chances on lesser prospects like Osweiler (6'7 or 6'8) early but leave short guys like Brees or Wilson or slightly built guys like Cousins to languish.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
On what basis is that "at worst"? At worse he will be out of the league in 2018. At worst he is not an NFL calibre player. I fought this perception that somehow he was sure to end up a solid backup the moment he was drafted.... even Kirby thought that was likely back then. Nathan Peterman is not a good enough Quarterback to be a success in the NFL. He wasn't based on his college film and he isn't based on his games thus far. A "solid backup" is not his worst case scenario.... it his his best case scenario.
Totally agree. When a QB from North Dakota State goes #2 in the draft, that means that the scouts are not only scouring the hinterlands, they aren't letting any potential Tom Bradys slip through the cracks like they may have done twenty years ago. These days, a kid who goes in the late rounds is seriously lacking in the physical attributes necessary for an NFL QB, so he's not even a decent bet to make a "solid backup".
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14 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:
They played with the same players. If you didn’t like the time that he had the same has to be the case for Taylor. Also, no one gets better from watching a guy!! Ha ha, that’s absurd.
The questions about Peterman coming out we’re in regards to accuracy, arm strength and how he handled pressure. When he has played in NFL games those issues have been magnified. He has been atrocious under pressure, he doesn’t have the arm strength or accuracy to fit the ball in tigh spots. So he completed 49% of the passes to his guys and over 10% to the other guys.
Obviously, no one knows what the future holds but he looks like the exact player scouts feared. That’s why he went in the 5th. Also, he was considered one of the most pro-ready. That was a pro for him. He wasn’t some raw prospect like Cardale that was 2 years away from being able to get on the field. Peterman is smart and can get through progressions. He was close to a finished product coming out. He’s just not very good and won’t be starting anywhere. 5th round QBs come and go in this league all of the time. Hell, the Saints used a top 75 pick on Garrett Grayson and cut him after 1 year. It isn’t insane at all to write off a guy that stinks.
You are not going to convince the diehards that Peterman is a dud. Hell, his own incompetence won't even convince some of them that he's not pro material. If the Bills drafted him, they must have seen his "potential" because the Bills have demonstrated their unerring ability to find "QB diamonds in the rough".
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4 hours ago, Virgil said:
With a GM who may not want to give up the farm to trade up and a salary cap space that's needed with a huge amount of UFA's, what's the plan for if we aren't able to snag someone in FA or the draft who can compete for the starting job.
Let's just assume that the Bills want in on ALL top QB's available. Cousins could easily go for a price tag outside of where we are willing to go. Two of the three Qb's in Minnesota are likely to be retained, but it's very well possible that we don't land the leftover. If they keep Keenum and Bridgewater, we may not even want Bradford.
Then, let's say the Rosen, Mayfield, and Darnold all go in the top 3-5 picks and we couldn't get a deal done to move up.
I don't think any of those scenario's are unrealistic at all. So what then? Do we actually keep Tyrod and get someone in the later rounds we hope develops and wait until next year when there is less QB competition?
Basically, what would plan C need to include to make you optimistic about our offense next year if we can't land the top 3 guys at QB or FA QB's?
My guess is that Plan C is more likely than Plan A or Plan B simply based on the reality that there are limited options for the Bills to get another QB who might be an upgrade to Taylor. My plan C would be to keep Taylor because he's probably the best the Bills can do unless they get Cousins or Smith, and then draft a QB in Round 2 or 3 if there's one who looks like he would at least make a decent backup QB. The Bills need a backup better than Peterman; his only recommendation is that he's cheap.
Arians: Best QB Class In 15-20 Years
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
If Arians was such a great judge of QBs coming out of college, why didn't he ever find one for his own team? Arians became the Cards' HC in 2013, and since that time, the Cards have drafted exactly 1 QB: Logan Thomas in the fourth round in 2014 despite the fact that the Cards could have taken Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014 and that Carson Palmer had been in the league for more than 10 years at that time, and has been more susceptible to serious injuries than many other QBs. Sometimes there's no good QBs available when a team needs one, but there were better candidates than Thomas available in 2014, and Cards passed on them.
Maybe Arians didn't have a lot of input in whom the Cards drafted, but I wouldn't have a lot of faith in Arians' evaluation of collegiate QBs based on his being a HC. Not all good HCs are good talent evaluators, especially when judging players playing in systems different from the ones they're familiar with.