warrior9

So Russel's 12 fumbles pass the eye test but Josh's 14 are worrisome? Russel was throwing to a much more well rounded group of receivers as well. As great as Smoke was this year, it's still his 3rd team in 3 years (or 4). The drops of our receivers sky rocket Josh's completion percentage too. I did the math and it came out that even if our receivers caught half of the drops, he's at 61% completion percentage.

I don't disagree, first Patriots game and Ravens game were both W's if he hits 2 of his over throws

I saw a thread that compared Josh to all second round QB's in the last 15 years or so but I wanted to focus on Russel Wilson because I think they have some similarities and I think Russel Wilson is a gamer and an elite QB. Both are considered mobile passers. Both had great defenses. I think this bodes well for us because Josh is also 2 years younger than RW was in his second year. What's interesting: They both had a ton of fumbles. Almost identical # of total TD's, yards, INTs, and both relied on the defense quite a bit. Josh took less sacks but had ~5% lower completion percentage. Josh in year 2: Passing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2019 23 BUF QB 17 16 16 10-6-0 271 461 58.8 3089 20 4.3 9 2.0 146 53 6.7 6.7 11.4 193.1 85.3 45.8 38 237 5.72 5.71 7.6 4 5 11 Rushing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD 1D Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb 2019 23 BUF QB 17 16 16 109 510 9 42 36 4.7 31.9 6.8 109 4.7 510 9 14 RW year 2: Passing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2013* 25 SEA QB 3 16 16 13-3-0 257 407 63.1 3357 26 6.4 9 2.2 157 80 8.2 8.5 13.1 209.8 101.2 66.8 44 272 6.84 7.10 9.8 3 4 16 Rushing: Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD 1D Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD 1D Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb 2013* 25 SEA QB 3 16 16 96 539 1 31 27 5.6 33.7 6.0 96 5.6 539 1 12 That year, Russel Wilson went to the Pro Bowl. The national narrative is Josh is not a good QB. He had the second most drops in the NFL, he had a rookie TE and RB, and an underwhelming receiving core (although, I do love what Smoke brings). Russel WIlson has Golden Tate, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kerse (eh), and Zach Miller. --I think this can shed some positive light on Josh's future potential. It excites me to know he's in good company and I'm excited to see what he can do with some more weapons!

I 100% agree with this. This was because of Daboll's love for running Frank Gore with a fullback and 3 TE's on 2nd and 8

I think this is as under the radar as it will get with national media and Bills fans. Josh was great on 3rd an 9+ this year. In terms of the jet sweep, I wonder if they ran that more just because of our personnel options and being a speedy WR corp or if it's something Daboll just really believes should be ran.

I hope Dawson Knox turns into that. Freak athlete, tall, can block (got better as season went on). If he can clean up his routes and become reliable catching easy passes, he'll be a phenomenal player for us. He's show he can make the great/ acrobatic catches we just need to him to catch passes for 8 yards in his chest with the game on the line.

I am a BIG Spain supporter/fan. I want him back. I want Dawkins, Spain, Morse on that left side of the line next year for sure.

Good friends with Fuente.

Now that the season is over, I wanted to reflect on some things that I think flew under the radar both positive and negative. I'm curious everyone's thoughts. I'll start with a few: 1.) I can't say for certain if it's our analytics/ sports science department but our injury report this year (aside from the current Hughes news) was absolutely incredible. I think it was week 15 and we didn't have a single person on our injury report. The health of this team this year was amazing and I think it gave us a leg up. It seems as though since McDermott has been here, this has been common place. I think it's time we start giving kudos to him for being somewhat advanced in this category. I'm unsure how this has flown under national radar. 2.) It seemed as though we thought our depth has gotten better but it's definitely still a weak point of this team in several spots. Our depth at LB, WR, DE, RB, and TE is pretty shallow. We have decent depth at CB/S (I think Marlowe actually played well and Kurt Coleman is fine), OL, and DT. This is something that will get better as our younger guys develop but it seems as though we need depth horribly at DE and LB. There are a few more I have on my mind but I wanted to see where the board may take this.

I just don't see that happening. McDermott probably sees him as his Luke from Carolina. I'm not sure how his skills would translate to being an OLB but I don't think we'll ever know. At worst, I think we see them moving him around a lot next year with the absence of lorax.

I'd be surprised if he's there, he's just a special talent, IMO. I think as the draft process moves along, he's going to sky rocket. That being said.... I don't think we can miss in round 1 or 2 this year. With the talent pool that is there and how seemingly well Beane has drafted(obviously Cody Ford's jury is still out but he progress nonetheless), i'm super excited for this draft. I think this draft/ off-season will set us up for the next 3-4 years if we hit. Our core would be incredibly young, athletic, and cheap.

He may go in round 2. Not where we pick in round 2. You're right, actually a LOT of the NFL's good receivers today were round 2. Sterling Shep, DK, Godwin, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Michael Thomas, Devante Adams, etc etc etc

Good thing it was a sunday night game.

I'm not sure if this was said, I didn't have time to read all responses. Jefferson will NOT be there at where we pick in round 2...... as the process moves along, I could absolutely see him being our first round pick.

Never said anything about him for a 7th. I just don't want him at his age, salary, and type of injury history. It's pretty bold to suggest win a SB with him in charge. He doesn't make Siran Neal / Milano make that sack, he doesn't make poyer not get carried 10 yards into the endzone, he doesn't make our coach not play prevent on 3rd and 18, and he doesn't make our offense score more than 20 points.

But why give up assets to get a 30 year old player with a 10 mill cap hit? I mean, if this year is any indication, he's definitely on the downside of his career now.

Gotcha, gotcha. I was trying to follow it but didn't really make sense to me at first. Now it does. I got you, my guy.

I guess I'm asking if you're saying McD overdrafts DE's or if you're asking if he should. I'm not sure there is evidence to suggest he's ever over drafted a DE.

Is this also a guess as to who gets cut? Cam and Carr are not FA's.

He over drafts DEs? Didnt we only draft Johnson in the 6th round? What other DE has he drafted? But why give up assets to get a 30 year old player with a 10 mill cap hit? I mean, if this year is any indication, he's definitely on the downside of his career now.

He's not a free agent until 2022, didn't have a great year, will be 30, has had concussions, etc... pass.

Exactly! I would love for him to have added 10-15 lbs between his IR year and this offseason!

Right.. I'm going to be interested to see what kind of weight, size, etc Joseph put on in his rehab and his first NFL off-season. It would be AWESOME if he can fill right in. I think this was more in coverage ( I could be wrong ) If they can teach him downhill reads and angles, scraping, etc... his athleticism is awesome and he could be a huge asset ( I hope )

Can Judon drop into coverage? I always viewed him more of a pass rusher. I think is Vosean can play in coverage, he'd be that jack of all trades. His tape at Florida is pretty awesome. I just don't know if they view him as MLB depth or have a greater plan.

In this defense, McDermott/Frazier used Lorenzo is a lot of different packages. 1st and 2nd down when on the field he played a pretty standard 4-3 LB. Where it gets interesting is on third down, he played the 3 tech (standing up) and would rush off the edge. He's 6'1 245ish so he is a pretty big body. I think his athleticism is ~ avg for an NFL LB. Do they (or you) think that Vosean Joseph is this guy? He is 6'1 230 or so (now has had a full year to train so may be more now), hes super athletic, and has awesome instincts but i'm unfamiliar with his coverage ability. I hate that we couldn't really see him play this year. In an ideal world, he is the guy. An LB corp with Edmunds, Milano, and Joseph would be an insanely athletic and fast group. What do you think they do to replace him and/or what you like them to do to replace him?