Shaw66

I guess it's about what you value. Two minutes to go, down 5 in the AFC Championship game, I want Brady or Ben in the huddle over Josh. Yes, I agree that purely physically, neither holds a candle to Josh. I want their knowledge and experience. Ben may be throwing 3/4 of his passes less than 10 yards, but guess what, so is Josh. Most of those downfield beauties from the first four weeks are history. Teams have forced the Bills into the short game. Even KC has been forced into the short game. In that kind of game, Ben's brain gives him the advantage over Josh.

My thoughts, exactly. Now that people more tuned in than you and I have reminded us about him, that's pretty interesting news. Not likely to have more impact than Gabriel Davis (which hasn't been all that much), but a different talent may add something.

I think it's funny Alpha and LB think I'm a pessimist. That is really laugh out loud funny. I'm the one who's been saying for a year and a half that we're watching the development of one of the great teams of all time in terms of sustained, long-term excellent. I don't remember anyone calling me a pessimist when I wrote that. Alpha, if you read my post again, it's pretty clear, I think, that although I started from the stats, I went beyond that. Most people who have commented in this thread seem to understand that. And, to those who think I undervalued Josh, as I watch the beginning of the Bucs game, I began thinking more about the top 10 QBs. Right now, today, looking at six game and the playoffs, I'd for sure rather have Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Mahomes. Probably Brees, if he was healthy. So right there, Josh isn't in my top five. I probably put Watson ahead of Josh. I might put a couple of others up there. So I stand by my "barely top ten" evaluation. Not in terms of long term; as I said, my long-term top five clearly has Allen in it. But for this stretch run, Allen is not there yet.

Difference is that Bills had a lame duck GM and everyone knew the next year was loaded with QBs. So skipping on Mahomes and getting draft ammo in the trade made sense. Giants didn't see a stocked draft class in the following year and used their #2 pick, so they couldn't improve their draft position, either. Both Giants and Broncos were looking at a hole at QB and did nothing to get in position to fill it.

Well, don't count on that. As the years go by, it's more about learning smaller and smaller details, so the progress is smaller and smaller. However, having said that, I keep watching Mahomes and reminding myself that Allen is still at least a year behind him in development. Mahomes looks better to me every year, but his progress is slowing too. Maybe next year's version of Allen will look like this year's version of Mahomes.

Right. You have to keep drafting until you get it right. Ryan Leaf, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers. Josh Rosen, Kyler Murray. Jets may go after Lawrence three years after Darnold. Dolphins traded for Rosen, then drafted Tua. Bills drafted Manuel, then signed Taylor, then drafted Allen. You have to keep going back to the well. And you can't afford to pass up opportunities. Giants and Broncos thought they were so smart, skipping over Allen for a position player. Where are they now? They're looking for a QB, that's where. They're hoping that somehow Lock and Jones will emerge into something they haven't been in two years. Good luck with that.

That's fair. But I still don't think he's the field general he's going to be come. But that's nitpicking.

I agree with you, at least insofar as onfield talent is concerned. Rodgers pissed and moaned about the Pack not getting receivers this year, but Rodgers is NOT a head coach or a GM. Those guys are building a team, and they add talent as they think is best to build a team. If you have a QB, your team can be competitive in a lot of different ways. If you don't have a QB, you might stumble your way to the Super Bowl, but you aren't going to be in the mix year after year. Looking forward, I think KC, Houston and Buffalo have the guy they need. Everyone else is still looking. Arizona might have their guy, Chargers might have theirs.

I'll buy top of the good tier. That's right where I think they are, with nine games left to prove they're elite.

This puts it pretty well. Bills are good, but no one's pickin em to win the Super Bowl. The Bills are still in "prove it" mode.

Hey, I also like these arguments. Herbert's not on my list because it's too early, but I agree he has the potential. And I really agree about the fact that Allen's top 10 on all the lists, so maybe that means that collectively he's in the top five. I thought about that. But I think that the simplest and best measure of QB effectiveness is passer rating, and he's 9th there, which supports my conclusion about him. I think he, just like the Bills, is a year away, but that they both still have the potential to make more progress this season. Carr was extraordinary last night. Just great. Raiders win if his receivers weren't allergic to footballs.

These are great arguments. Thanks. You may be right about this. I just took a look at Football Outsiders. This is the time of year when their analysis starts to make sense, in my mind. They have the Bills at middle of the road, including strength of schedule, so they would argue with you. But they aren't infallible.

No. Barely describes where he is on the list. "Solidly" to p 10 would suggest he's in the middle. "Barely" suggests he's in the bottom of the top 10. That's objective, not subjective.

I think this is the point - not simply run or stop the run, but in general, they don't yet look like a team that can make the deep playoff run. But, as I said, what the Bills have going for them is the process. I don't think we've seen their best football yet.

I thought people would react to the Josh Allen comment. First, my post was from the point of view of the stats. That's what I said at the outset. Look at the stats. Yards, 6th. Yards per attempt, 8th. TDs 8th. INTs, about 10th. Rating, 9th. That's why I said barely top 10. If you're talking about the future, about the QB I want to have for the next ten years, Allen's in my top 5, maybe actually in my top two, with Mahomes. Allen is going to be phenomenal. But if you're talking about the present, he isn't quite there yet. Rivers, for example, showed again yesterday how good the really good field generals can be, and even though Rivers can't hold a candle to Allen in terms of physical talent, running the team is what sets apart the great from the good QBs. Rodgers, Rivers, Ben, Brees, Mahomes all have that. Josh has made great strides in three years, and as I've always said, he needs another year or two. When he's a great a field general, the only guys who will be able to play with him will be the guys with great arms. That's Mahomes and maybe Watson.

Nice analysis. I agree. I've been a Wallace fan for over a year. What I like is that he just doesn't make mistakes. Corner is a position where by definition you are going to lose your battles more than you win them - passing offenses are too sophisticated and too effective to expect that corners are going to make plays all the time. 70% completion rates are common. What's important for corners is to avoid making mistakes. Stay with your guy, make the tackle, don't take penalties, support the run defense. Levi's good at all that. As for Norman, I thought he was better than you say. I was really pleased that he was willing to play within McDermott's system (which shouldn't have been a surprise, given their history). I think he's a better talent than Levi, and I think the Bills will be in really good shape at corner if they can get him back. I don't know who will play on that side, but the Bills will have great depth, and a lot of talent to put on the field when they go to the dime.

I've let myself get so excited about the Bills' recent success that I stopped paying attention to the measurables. I looked this morning. The data make it pretty clear that the Bills still have some growing to do. Look at the standings (and ignore the NFC East). The Bills have a decent record, like most of the other division leaders, but they are behind the very best teams. The Bills are just barely above .500 in points for/points against, worst among all the division leaders. Go to the team stats. When you look collectively at yards per game offense, points per game offense, yards per game defense, points per game defense, this is a middling team. The Bills pass pretty well and defend the pass pretty well, and the Bills aren't very good running or stopping the run. The Bills don't come to mind when you think of physically tough teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, Pittsburgh. The Bills' quarterback is barely top 10. There just isn't much of anything that says the Bills are one of the best teams. Still, I'm optimistic. I'm optimistic because what the Bills have is a process where they continue to get better. I wrote earlier this season about McDermott's mid-season slump. I think it's real. I think the Bills get better from week to week for 17 weeks, focusing on all parts of their game. Other teams focus more narrowly, like maybe Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Arizona - by focusing narrowly, they get better faster, but they plateau. I think in that regard the Bills operate like the Patriots have operated. I think the Bills will continue to win, and I think that may even put up some wins that will surprise some people. It will happen because we haven't seen the best of 2020 Bills yet - they're built to peak in December. Although I'm optimistic, it's clear that the Bills still are a little short of talent. They don't have a dominant defensive line player, and they don't have a stud linebacker. They don't have an explosive (either in terms of speed or power) running back. Bottom line, I don't know where the Bills will finish, but I like how they build and attack the season. They keep getting better, which makes them a threat to win every game.

FITZMAGIC!!!!!!!

Agony.

Ball security is so important. Gordon holds onto the ball the game is over.

Great move by Flores. Broncos need to respond.

Too conservative. Broncos need to attack. Go conservative like that you're signaling you're afraid. Uh oh. Fitz.

It really doesn't matter, but I don't think you're correct about this. Jordan Palmer is a football player, not a writer. So when he said Allen had bad mechanical happens, it's quite possible that's just poor word choice. A football player is less likely to make distinctions in his language that capture the difference between "bad habits" and no habits. I didn't see Allen doing anything wrong consistently wrong. I never saw a QB whose mechanics were bad. Every throw was unique. He didn't do the same thing wrong every time. A habit is something that you do the same every time a situation arises, and that wasn't Allen. Rolling left, for example, sometimes he threw a pass that only a half dozen NFL QBs throw, sometimes he was a disaster. That's not a bad habit; that's just a situation that requires awareness and consistency.

Thurm - I want to add something that makes sense in the way Buddo was just talking about it. I agree that Allen wasn't consistently accurate early on. There were multiple throws that left you scratching your head, wondering why he threw it like THAT! He needed to get consistently accurate. The problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected; the problem was that he more or less didn't have any habits. That is, he had to learn to just dial it back a bit. What Beane and McDermott and their organization figured out is that Allen was kind of a wild mustang that hadn't been tamed yet. They didn't have to break a bunch of bad habits. They just had to teach some habits, period. They saw that Allen really wanted to be tamed, so they didn't see the risk.

Bud - This is really description of why he was "inaccurate" (by whatever standard). All the scouts knew about his arm. The question was exactly what you say - could he learn to dial it up and down, in all different ways. Just as you say. And just as you say, it was Beane, among all the GMs ahead of him at #12, who figured out that Allen had it in him to do that learning. Thanks.