Straight Hucklebuck
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Posts posted by Straight Hucklebuck
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54 minutes ago, Turk71 said:
Use Cook in the passing game again...last 2 games: 1 target, 1 catch, -4 yds
3 games prior: 15 tgts, 13 catches, 180 yds, 2 tds.
Not sure why they stopped but they need to throw to Cook this game. Easy, quick release, confidence building throws are just the ticket to get Josh back on track imo.
We're constantly having to ask these "what happened" questions with this team.
Allen one week is 320 and 4 TDs, the next week its 169 and 1 INT.
Diggs disappears and it's all fine at OBD.
Cook 179 yards one week, 35 the next week.
Kincaid 8 catches one week, 1 target the next week.
We all see these things.
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So at minimum WR in Round 1.
In this scenario we’re going all in on that player.
Because it’s Diggs, R1, Shakir, Shorter and Harty.
So do your plan, let Sherfield walk, and bring in a <$5M vet FA.
In this scenario, if Shakir takes another large step forward and the R1 WR can give you 800+ yards, you might be ok.Keep Harty, hope Shorter becomes playable and come out of FA with a low cost veteran that is better than Sherfield.
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59 minutes ago, NewEra said:
I think you’re underestimating the impact of having an OC that’s in tune with the roster. Dorsey was all in on Diggs and neglected cook. Brady is the opposite while having no clue how to use his 2 good TEs (which can offset your need for having 4 good WRs).
Again I’ll ask- which teams can afford to lose their WR1-2 and not miss a beat?
No roster can lose its WR1 and WR2 and be fine.
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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:
What nfl teams have such an embarrassment of riches where if they lose a top WR, they have great replacements? Our problems lie in that gabe isn’t a great 2 and Sheffield and Harty aren’t good options @ WR4-5. Drafting a WR2 in rd 1 and landing wr 4-5 later in the draft and in FA.
We’re 30m over the cap and we have 8 FA DL. 8. Sometimes you can’t address everything with premium resources. Get ready for drafting a DL in rd 1 or 2 + another DL in rd 3-4 in addition to resigning a handful of returners
Allen is the franchise.
Beane has got him Diggs and Kincaid, with no other premium investment since 2019.
And we wonder why this offense comes and goes.
Somehow get your hands on two WRs that actually can play. If not, we’ll be here again next season.
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1 hour ago, NewEra said:
That WR may be Harty. He may be DJ Chark. Or Juju. We also may not even need that WR because we’d have Diggs/1st rd WR/kincaid/shakir in 4 WR sets. Then add knox. Shakir isn’t a star but he’s a very good 4th-5th option in the passing game.
looking at our offense this year- we only need to replace Gabe (which will be 1st rd WR) and the Sherfield/Harty slot. They rarely ever see the field at the same time. Shorter will replace Sherfield and another draft pick/FA to replace Harty.
plus we need to replace/resign: Floyd, epenesa, Shaq, daquan, Jphillips, settle, and joseph. The DL has saved our season and any McD coached D has no chance without a talented DL.
sure it would be nice to add another 15M-18m WR like evans, but not at the expense of Leonard Floyd and Daquan
No way Beane envisioned 14-138-1 when he signed Harty to 2 years, $9M.
I don’t know what he did or didn’t do to show this coaching staff that he needs to be on the field.
But two coordinators so far barely use him.
He’ll catch a critical 25-yard pass in Kansas City, and then not touch the ball on offense for 3 weeks?
He gets 3 snaps against the Bengals, Josh looks for him deep immediately.
NO PLAN
We saw the same thing with Nyheim Hines last year. Absolute disconnect between the GM and Coaching Staff, swept under the rug by hard to catch a RB up in this system.
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44 minutes ago, NewEra said:
That WR may be Harty. He may be DJ Chark. Or Juju. We also may not even need that WR because we’d have Diggs/1st rd WR/kincaid/shakir in 4 WR sets. Then add knox. Shakir isn’t a star but he’s a very good 4th-5th option in the passing game.
looking at our offense this year- we only need to replace Gabe (which will be 1st rd WR) and the Sherfield/Harty slot. They rarely ever see the field at the same time. Shorter will replace Sherfield and another draft pick/FA to replace Harty.
plus we need to replace/resign: Floyd, epenesa, Shaq, daquan, Jphillips, settle, and joseph. The DL has saved our season and any McD coached D has no chance without a talented DL.
sure it would be nice to add another 15M-18m WR like evans, but not at the expense of Leonard Floyd and Daquan
Until Diggs or the Rookie R1 WR gets hurt, in which case Shakir slides up a peg, and you don't have any useable WRs in slots #4, #5, #6.
It's one storyline that has been talked about on here - the Bills have been virtually injury free on offense outside of Knox.
In this scenario, hopefully Shorter can outplay his 5th Round draft slot.
Only concern with DaQuan and Floyd is giving money to guys who are both 32+ when next season starts.
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5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
In general agree, but we have too many holes to fill and not enough high picks to fill them to spend another pick that high on double dipping.
Bills currently have 10 picks.
1st
2nd
4th
5th
5th
6th
6th
6th
6th
7th
I believe we're expecting to get a 3rd for Edmunds as well. Giving us 11.
I could see Beane using a couple of those 6th to package with a 5th or 4th and moving up in those rounds. So maybe a 2nd WR there if the right guy falls. But it will take some luck and finagling.
Go Bills
Well, I guess it will be RD 1 WR, Diggs, Shakir, Harty and Shorter.
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43 minutes ago, NewEra said:
I hear ya. I agree- Diggs and shakir and gut the rest- shorter might be wr6 so that leaves 3 spots. I just think it’s impractical to use our 2 best assets (1st rd pick and big FA contract) on the position. We’ve invested in knox and Kincaid- if we plan on using both of them (which should based on our investments) then using our 1st and big FA $ on WR is a poor allocation of assets imo. We need to find a way to use Kincaid and knox at the same time.
I’d like to see:
-Diggs-1st rd pick
-Shakir
-3-5M FA that can challenge 1st rd pick and shakir
-1-3M FA or later rd pick
-Shorter
Kincaid
Knox
Cook
So we agree on the 1st Round pick at WR.
But $3M - $5M FA WR is Harty (2 years, $9M).
$1M - $3M FA WR is veteran minimum Sherfield type player.
So effectively, let’s bypass FA at WR and use a 1st and 3rd/4th on another WR.
Because <$5M WR isn’t going to do anything.
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6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Nothing about Von at all in the plan to get to $72M under. Which is good to hear we can get there even with that contract on the books.
Not sure what we do there. Seems like it costs more to cut him than keep him. But I'm still trying to hash out the post-June 1 numbers.
Either way, I think Miller is on the roster next year but not beyond that.
I think all you can do is approach him and ask for a salary cut, but their camp knows the Bills are not going to eat $30M in dead cap to get rid of him.
That length of that contract and his age is not a good match.
4 minutes ago, NewEra said:Copy that-
Even so- you thought we’d use our first rd pick on a WR and then use any FA money we might be able to free up for another WR with a similar skill set as the WR we just drafted. Meanwhile we’d have no defensive line- and no money to buy one. Sounds fun. But it’s 💩
I think our WR room needs to be blown up.
It's been 2 seasons now where #4, #5 and #6 are unplayable.
We go into next season with Diggs and Shakir, that's it. Shorter is not a plan.
Let's pray they don't re-sign Gabe, and that means you're again trying to get one in FA, and really, no matter what, you need to draft WR in R1.
And on that 💩free agency point - we've tried the low end FA route - Crowder, Emmanuel Sanders, Sherfield, Harty - and these guys stink. So Evans is of course going to be a premier FA, but we've seen time and time again this low end guys are not good enough to even get on the field.
Look through the 2024 WR FAs and tell me who you'd like?
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28 minutes ago, NewEra said:
You guys think we can sign evans and draft Odunze…… lol. You can’t be serious. But I’m sure you both are 🤦🏻♂️
This was from early December when the team was 5-5 and 6-6 and picking in the teens.
The Bills have won 4 in a row and now are picking in the 20's so Odunze will be long gone, Nabers and so forth.
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45 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I think this is a somewhat valid statement, but it's too early to say that.
The Bills caught fire two years ago and were probably the best team in the league when we got knocked out due to bad coaching and bad luck.
Last year, we definitely ran out of gas... physically and mentally. We're lucky we didn't lose in the Wild Card Round to a backup QB.
This year.. if we lose to Miami and don't make the playoffs or fall short in the playoffs with the offense looking clunky, it will once again seem like last year, where we just ran out of gas down the stretch... but we could also go the opposite way and make a run.
TBD
Beane's approach has been to keep as much of the 2020 team together as possible. We've strained the cap to keep everyone we can. We're still using a Daboll system on offense, we've promoted Gabe to #2, we've kept Hyde and Poyer, extended Milano, White, gone back to the well with Lawson, Phillips and so forth.
I think the team is stable, a lot of veteran leadership.
However, I think we're seeing that the Bills have squeezed as much blood out of the stone as they're going to get.
I think a real search for OC and DC is required. The Bills will need DT, DE and Safety, but they need another top-flight WR. I'm not interested in finding the next Cole Beasley. -
1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:
Good post.Once again this season they gave themselves the tiniest margin for error on offense. Almost no playmakers and Allen has to do everything. He lateraled successfully to Shakir on Sunday in a high-risk play; he almost fumbled the game away trying to do it again later (can you imagine the narratives about Allen if the Patriots recovered and scored?). Beane is a decent GM but his mismanagement of the offense borders on a war crime.
Hey Coach,
Let's go through it. '
2019 - Duke Wiliams leads the Bills in targets in the Texans Playoff game. Our Coach is running Frank Gore / Devin Singletary at a 50/50 split.
2020 - Diggs has the best year in Bills history at WR. However, Cole Beasley gets injured against New England, misses the season finale, and the team struggles with the Colts, has the great defensive performance against the Ravens, and could not keep up against prime Kansas City.
2021 - Beasley and Brown are fading as the season goes along, the contributions from them dip. The other critical decision that has permeated the future is - Beane signs Emmanuel Sanders to be the #2 WR. Again, season starts strong, but by Week 7 he's out of gas. Gabe has the big game in Kansas City. We punt on getting another Diggs level WR, and don't try in the draft.
2022 - The fact that Allen squeezes 35 TDs passing out of Diggs, Davis and Isaiah McKenzie is still pretty amazing to me. Knox doesn't take a big step forward. The team has to bring back Cole Beasley and John Brown out of semi-retirement towards the end of the season. This is where Chris Simms really starts harping on the idea that nobody is scared of the Bills weapons. Allen has the UCL that needs to be managed the rest of the year. The bottom of the WR room is useless - Crowder, Kumerow, Shakir isn't used. The take away is Gabe Davis has an alright season, but his results don't extrapolate to the increase in his playing time.
2023 - The longest scoring funk of the current Josh Allen Bills: Jaguars - Giants - New England - Tampa - Bengals - Denver. Diggs last 100-yard game comes on 16 targets against the Giants, Kincaid is still being used as a dump-off only option, Davis' inconsistency getting worse (0.0 or 100 yards). The bottom of the WR group (Harty, Sherfield, Shorter) is remade - and they contribute nothing. The Bills seem to have tried a little of everything on approach: 012 personnel, Diggs peppered with targets, heavy James Cook, Allen not running, now running again, obsession with tunnel screens and bubbles. There is just no consistency with the offense. Allen is at an all-time high in number of interceptions thrown, all his metrics (yards/game, rating, Interception %) all trickling down. The TD production is there because the rushing TDs are double this year, but good chance he ends the year under 30 TD passes.
Add it all up and what is says to me is that we've squeezed all the blood out of this iteration of the stone. Allen as the super weapon, Diggs as the primary WR, the Brian Daboll tree. The word identity gets talked a lot by the National Media because they don't really watch the team. But when I watch this team and Allen this season, I don't know what approach I'm going to get. Maybe that's their trademark, doing whatever they need to do in that given week. But Cook is not going to go off every game, Diggs has disappeared, Kincaid is better than Knox, but we paid Knox so eats at Kincaid's production, Shakir is reliable, but he's not featured, Gabe Davis requires broken coverages to really contribute.
We need more playmakers. Cook and Kincaid are a start, but since 2021 we've had a gigantic hole at WR #2. In this offense there is very little the Bills present in terms of physical mismatches. They don't have a WR that high points the ball, can win contested catches down the field, that really can take the top off the defense. Have to invest in another WR. Josh needs to work harder in the offseason. He's great, but it was clear last year that he didn't work as hard.
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8 hours ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:
It's felt this way the past three seasons. They just always seem mentally exhausted. Tons of games where they have no spark, nothing goes smoothly, players constantly looking beleaguered and embattled...it's weird, right? I can't put my finger on it, but there has been something off mentally with them for a long time.
My gut says it's coaching, but the players supposedly like McDermott & Co.
Yeah I think this is true.
Here are the 3 reasons I think it’s so:
1. Josh Allen is highly variable, and highly scrutinized. He has a penchant for turning the ball over. At the same time he makes plays. Almost every interview he does is about managing his risk taking, the constant pecking on his mental state. I just watched his interview with Michael Smith, and that’s the whole interview, ditching “low positive” and getting back to himself, but it ultimately circles back to turnovers. Allen said it - he’s viewed as a “turnover machine”.
2. I think the Bills don’t have enough offensive firepower. 2020, 2021, 2022 and now this year - we’re short another dynamic WR. So in my mind this is why this team seems to lose its way seemingly out of nowhere (48 against the Dolphins, 20 against the Jaguars). We have a rocket armed QB that wants to throw outside the numbers to WRs and our best WR is a high level possession WR (Greg Cosell) and the rest of the options are just guys.
3. Our defense is old - Safety - a lot of age on the defensive line - and because of that we’re always managing injuries down the stretch. It adds a layer of stress. Add into that this coaching staff over the years have had poor defensive showings in the Playoffs, playing 17 yards off every WR. This leads to a bunch of nail biting games.
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Once this staff identifies you as someone who needs to be inactive, it’s hard to get off that list.
See Elam, Poona Ford, Hamlin, etc.
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Today was the deadline for Justin Shorter wasn’t it?
So we’re stuck with useless Trent Sherfield the rest of the year.
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38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Let's try this. Here is a table listing the contributions of every WR and TE drafted in the first and second round of 2023 sorted by number of receptions.
On your honor, without looking up their stats, please indicate which are WR and which are TE using the number in the first column (eg, TE = #, #, #, #)
Extra credit: indicate which players were selected in the first and which in the second round.
Thanks. If a decent WR will put up better numbers than a TE, should be cinchy.
Laporta -TE-R2
Rice-WR-R2
Flowers-WR-R1
Addison - WR-R1
Kincaid - TE- R2
Smith - Njigba - WR - R1
Dell - WR - R3
36-414-2 maybe one of the Packer rookie WRs like Reed or Wicks?
Mayer - TE - R2
Musgrave - TE - R2
Johnston - WR - R1
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15 minutes ago, finn said:
Right. I may be wrong, but it seems to me Brady doesn't realize what he has in Kincaid--or Shakir. He catches 81% of his targets, Shakir 86%. Those are really high percentages. Why not have both of them deeper routes, keep Knox and Cook in for the check downs?
Brady (and McDermott letting Brady) have to run 011 personnel.
Diggs-Davis-Shakir-Kincaid-Cook on the field at all times and commit to that.
We don’t have any time for Murray, Sherfield and Knox. It’s Week 18, we’re done with experimenting with 012, Cook heavy, tunnel and bubbles screens, Allen and the low-positive no running.
A year’s worth of data says Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook have to be on the field as much as humanly possible. No more 50% - 60% snap counts. Need all these guys at 80%.
Just now, Drew21PA said:You got eye rolls but I specifically remember what you are talking about with the lofty expectations
hell he would be where I thought at 300-400 if Dawson didn’t get hurt half the season
its just how we bring rookies along
I picked the 600-yard option.
The other ones were 1,000+.
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6 minutes ago, brianthomas said:
up until a couple months ago, Kincaid's average air yards per target were 3.3 yards, amongst the lowest in the league. I got downvoted the most of any post ive ever written for stating that fact. Maybe people thought i was speaking down on him. But its all about how we're using him thats the issue.
Throws 3 yards down the field should be high percentage completions. The reasons why should be obvious.
Having these plays in our offense are good to have, it gets Josh in a rhythm, 3 yards becomes 5 & 6 etc. But the numbers show Kincaid needs to get the ball more & deeper down the field.
As an aside: to me this issue is similar imho to how we were using Cook. The numbers showed he needed more touches & when he did he proved why with good results. Kincaid did the same thing when he broke out with production we havent seen here maybe ever. Perhaps the injury had the greatest affect on him, but now that he's healthy the air yards need to be more around 10 yards than 3. If even only just to open up more of the underneath stuff.
Yeah the dump off stuff with Kincaid started right away against the Jets and continued all the way until last week.
The Bills never changed course - Dorsey or Brady - on that depth of target.
One thing we don't have a measure of is Kincaid's 40-time, broad, vertical, 3-cone, 20 yard shuttle or bench because he didn't workout or complete the combine. I mention this because he recently did an interview where he talked about his offseason plan including getting stronger. We've seen him be able to be tackled quickly and take some hard shots.
I think the smooth route runner is correct, the hands is correct, but he doesn't look like a physical mismatch type Tight End, and certainly I don't think he runs as fast as LaPorta's 4.59.
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There were (5) big Tight End options in the Draft:
Kincaid: 66-589-2 (1st)
LaPorta: 81-860-9 (2nd)
Mayer: 27-304-2 (2nd)
Musgrave: 33-341-1 (2nd)
Washington 7-67-0 (3rd)
Kraft 28-324-2 (3rd)
Mallory 18-207-0 (5th)
I think Mayer could still be one of the better Tight Ends from this draft despite the lower numbers, but with Kincaid we're not dealing with a bust of a player - he's passed that bar. Kincaid is reliable, and has carved out the #1 receiving Tight End role by year end. I think maybe we see he's not a physical mismatch that will barrel over people, or Moss-people in the end zone. The Bills don't seem to scout that criteria high up their list when they select WRs and Tight Ends.
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10 minutes ago, JohnNord said:
I don’t buy this at all. First off who in the blue hell is CJ Caggiano and how does he have better sources than anyone else in the NFL.
Smell the BS
Well maybe he does have a source, but we know it's not something like a Grade 3 AC-joint sprain that you physically can't play though, or a Drew Brees-esque complete rotator cuff tear, or a broken scapula, or whatever else.
If he's playing through it, structurally it has to be intact.
I think Bills fans jump to the he must be secretly hurt more card a lot whenever a player doesn't play well.
We know he's got a ton of bumps and bruises. He took huge shots on that shoulder in the Giants game. He got drilled in the head in the Patriots game. -
1 hour ago, ngbills said:
This is likely going to ruffle some feathers around here. Every year there are guys stats that overstate their performance. I think that is year it is Kincaid. This is less about his ability and more how he was used most of the season. This past game we finally saw him going downfield where he should be. He is not Cole Beasley who will catch and pass and quickly turn up field for the extra yards squeezing through guys, he is not a monster TE that will catch a pass and run guys over for 5 yards. Yet he was primarily used in that capacity racking up easy catches but limited yards or impact. Below are some comps from the other starting TE's around the league.
Yards per rec
Kincaid 8.9
Kittle 15.7 tops amongst TE's
Most starters are in the 10-11 range
TD
Kincaid 2
LaPorta is top at 9
Many others have 5-6. Kincaid at the low end with 2
1st Downs
Kincaid 26
Kelce 51 tops amongst TE's
Most with similar rec numbers are in the 30's and 40's. Kincaid is low end.
Average Depth of Target
Kincaid 5.8 yards
Pitts is tops at 11.4 yards; Kittle is at 9.4 yards
Most are in the 6-7 range, though some in the 5's with Kincaid at the low end.
Yards after Catch
Kincaid 4.3 yards
Kittle and Njoku at 7.4 yards are tops
Many are in the 4-6 range with Kincaid at the low end.
Broken Tackles
Kincaid 3
McBride is at 10 and Njoku and LaPorta are at 9
Many other from 2-7 range. Kincaid at low end.
This is not a Kincaid sucks post. This is a they are confused in how to use him post and lets not celebrate his # of rec's stats. He is not a throw it to and watch him run over or around guys like he is being used. He is a tall lanky TE that should be going down the same and catching contested passes. Most NFL caliber players could replicate Kincaid catches or they would be out the league. He can and should do more and I want to see that from him...like we saw some of last week. I am happy he broke some reception records blah blah, but lest see them cut him loose.
Yeah, the Bills let Kincaid get too far into the season using him solely as a dump off outlet to get any real numbers.
Also, Knox and Kincaid have not co-existed without eating into each others numbers, Kincaid’s snap count was 55% on Sunday.
All you can hope is that the Bills saw some things Sunday that they can utilize going forward, to where the season won’t be a predictor for his post season impact.
It starts by getting his snap count up. He’s not on the field enough.
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Allen wasn't on the injury report at all in Week 17.
But he's on the Injury Report with Right Shoulder starting Week 7 - Week 16.
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You know every time the Bills offense underwhelms we pull the “that’s the best defense we’ve faced all year” line.
They played poorly, and will only face Playoff caliber teams the rest of the way.
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Hopefully he signs with someone we have to play, and they decide to give him 20 carries.
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Bills at Dolphins: Thursday injury reports
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Both limited.
Video of Waddle from practice, and he's catching passes without an obvious limp.
I think they both are playing.