Rochesterfan

And if the Bills lose the SB because Hall barely plays and we needed a CB to cover the WRs and that costs us home field. Then in 4 years we do not want to give Hall top 5 RB (5th year option) money because the position means nothing rather than picking up a 5th year option on a CB and saving money. Then everyone will be pissed off because we could of had real value.

It appears so True or False @IronMaidenBills Barry Sanders was the better football player in the day by a huge amount.

Who is being disingenuous here - you provided a list of metrics and have not done the research. You then lumped Hall into a list of HOF type players and said by your metric here is where he was projected. You then challenged @NewEra to prove you wrong. I have gone through the RAS website and more than matched your original list with players that met your criteria. I have also stated by the very website you provided multiple of you original list were only close by the data they use to determine the RAS score because their 40 times didn’t fit. If you are going to accept guys who are close - I have a list of 15 other guys that just missed out and could be included - I have not added them because you are correct they did not hit the criteria. I am being totally fair and listed the players that 100% matched your criteria and also that maybe not all of your guy matched up. Then you suddenly change what your parameters are - I am sure I have a better one. 100% of the players named Barry Sanders the went to OK State and played in Detroit are HOF worthy- if that player is available 100% pick them in the first round. Other than that - just enjoy the night.

So not only did Barry sanders have a 4.41 40 time for his RAS - not in your metric. RAS lists AP with a 4.41 40 time also. So right now based upon have a high RAS, below a 4.40 40, and >1400 yards x2 or >1800 yard - your list is Edgerrin James HOF, Jonathan Taylor, Travis Eteniene - who was moved to WR not a RB in Jacksonville. We also have guys like Tevin Coleman, Jerrick McKinnion, Danny Woodhead, and Matt Bereida that all meet the metric and push your metric to 2 excellent backs and 4 JAGS that meet you metric. If you want to up the 40 time to include Sanders and AP - then guys like TJ Duckett start to push their way in. I love the idea, but I do not think your very limited metrics amount to proving anything. Sorry.

Additionally let’s go back to your original parameters - you included Barry Sanders, but on the RAS website - his 40 time was listed as 4.41 - so technically he doesn’t meet your criteria either - pulling things down further. I have a bunch of average guys that just miss out by a few yards - one of your HOFs miss out by 40 time according to RAS.

Only when it became obvious your metric was wrong did it become an issue. it is part of the reason people question Hall - his competition in the big 12 on defense was pathetic- just as bad as many lower colleges.

Ahh more things that must be taken into account.

How about Danny Woodhead. 4.33 40, 1800+ and 1700+ yards 2 different years in college, RAS upper 8. Never had more than 600 yards in he NFL. Plus there are a ton of guys right on that edge - Michael Bennett - 1681 yards in 1 season, Jerious Norwood 2 college years well over 1000 yards, Justice Hill, TJ Duckett 4.42 40. I get that you think you metric hits 80%, but it is looking more like 50% and a ton of average players right in the same range - so not sure the metrics matter and those players are more recent than you HOFs. At this point I am only in the upper 8 RAS all time. I am sure there will be more, but whatever. Keep telling everyone that he is a HOF base upon your metric.

Another player on the list - Taiwan Jones - our ST ace. 4.33 40 time, mid 9 RAS, 1200 and 1700 yards in college. Never done a thing as a RB. 🤦‍♂️

Is Tevin Coleman the outlier? Darren McFadden was an average RB with what 2 1000 yard season - not great. Jerrick McKinnon has done little. 4.4 40 time, upper 9 RAS, and 1800 yard season in college. Reggie Bush not a great pro. Matt Breida 4.38 40 time, upper 9 RAs and 2 1400+ yard college - never hit 1000 yards in NFL. You listed a few greats, but I am only a small way through and there are a couple below average to Average RBs. Not sure it is really 80% like you claim. Plus most of your successful guys were older players at a time when they were unique and super special. I will keep going through, but it does not look like it makes him a guaranteed success. Matt Bredida might be a perfect comp for Hall. More of a receiving threat. I will keep looking at these, but many I am not sure I think Hall is the HOF you make him out to be. Here are a few more names on the other side @NewEra.

Totally agree - I actually think Gordon might have a higher ceiling. I noticed Sal picked Gordon today with Booth on the board based solely him having such a high ceiling - even with Booth being better immediately.

Well excepting for the fact that Harris had average stats that were significantly worse than even our current guy in Singletary. His YPC average was nearly a yard less per carry and he lead the Steelers to fewer wins and missing the playoffs versus the Steelers making the playoffs in a year their division was tougher without him. They drafted Harris and adjusted the entire offense to go though their 1st round RB and they got excellent production, but the offense was less effective and they were a worse team - even though two other teams in the division - Cleveland and Baltimore were also significantly worse. We will see, but I think Harris and the Steelers continue to be mediocre.

Ok - I get it the guy who has repeatedly had to correct you lacks football knowledge- nice. Let’s review. 1st you stated in a patronizing way how CEH when healthy lead the Chiefs to a SB victory and that proves us wrong - Oops your bad. Then you claim that well Williams lead the team to victory and that is why a running back being drafted is important. - except Williams was an UDFA again showing you do not need the high pick to help you team. Then there is the 106 yards at a 6.1 YPC and 29 yards receiving to show how vital he was to the win. Except non of that was true - going into the 4th quarter he had 60 yards and a 4 YPC average and the Chiefs were losing 20-10 - the Chiefs took the lead solely on the arm of Mahomes. Then after a 4th down stop with the 49ers running an all out blitz - Williams did manage to make a 38 yard run to put up the final score - it was nice, but he had little to do with the outcome - it was all Mahomes. To cement that what did the Chiefs do - they tried to replace the UDFA with CEH. Finally then you state - well that is important that you RB can score from anyplace on the field, but you know who has had a longer TD run each year he has been in the league - yep Singletary. So once again your argument points to the fact that a guy on our roster can already do everything the RB in KC did to win the SB. You have not done anything, but provide excellent reasons why the Bills should stick with a 2 million dollar RB in Singletary. He has broken more long runs than the guy that you claimed helped KC win the SB. He has a better career YPC and Yard per catch. Whatever - you showed your knowledge with you first incorrect post - since then you have just been bailing and flailing.

Actually nope - I think you are wrong again. First the rushing was done by a UDFA - a guy you can pick up anywhere - so no sense wasting a high pick. Second the game was very even and low scoring early and the Chiefs did run the ball a bunch with limited success to the tune of falling behind 20 - 10. Then guess what - they went almost exclusively to a passing attack and scored 3 4th quarter TDs - when the 49ers knew they were going to pass. The run game of KC did nothing to help them win and actually put them into a huge hole as Mahomes struggled to get into any rhythm. Once they got away from trying to run the ball. And focused on nearly 100% passing - they had 2 great drives to put themselves on top. The last TD was a nearly 40 yard run by the UDFA Williams as SF crowded the line to keep them out of FG range after a turn over on downs. Prior to that he had 60 yards rushing and 29 yards receiving with a rushing average of 4 YPC. I really don’t think that does much to prove your point about RB. He was less helpful and had a lower YPC and yards per reception than Singletary. If anything it proves we should wait because if Williams was good enough for KC to win - Singletary is significantly better and more than good enough to win.

Are you sure about that? I am pretty sure they won the SuperBowl in 2019 with a UDFA - Williams as their leading rusher. They tried to upgrade that in the 2020 draft with CEH and although he lead the team in rushing - they lost. The next year he again missed time and they didn’t make the Super Bowl. They have taken steps back each year after drafting him. I think the wrench is in your argument. The best the Chiefs have played is with a UDFA as their primary back.

Sal in discussion with several other media guys that spend a lot of time at OBD has repeatedly said - he believes ETN was a smokescreen to get someone to either move up or pick him - pushing down a solid player. They believe his actions at handling RB speak louder than the smoke. They reiterated that it sounds like they are thinking that again - pushing RB in the hopes that someone either moves up or picks him and it pushes a better value position down. We will see - more and more national people are jumping on the Hall pick - I just feel like they all talk each other into things via group speak rather than actual knowledge. Smoke versus Fire.

I want the younger player Serena Jones - I think he will be better overall - just don’t let Will Smith play the father or Mel Kiper might get face smacked at the draft. Sorry - just trying to have a bit of fun to lighten this place up. 😂

Every Buffalo media guy seems to be portraying it the other way. Sal was again talking about it. Beane had limited 1st round players somewhere in the 18-20 range and he expected at least 1 or 2 to be available at 25. Then they asked about RB and Beane seemed to lump them in with the next group and on his show Sal said basically if all of the 1st round talent was gone - they would look at RB, but that position would require someone with exceptional talent to exceed the positional value. So maybe he did not come right out and say they do not have a 1st round grade, but the way he spoke and the things the various media got from interviews seem to point very highly to them thinking he is not a first round talent (He might still get drafted in the first because of the limited talent levels in this draft). We will see - as I have said - he could take him, but I think that would be about the last thing they want to do. I struggle to find many recent 1st round RBs that are elite and worth the pick. You don’t think the Giants are kicking themselves for picking Barkley at this point. He is way over paid for his production. The sweet spot is 2nd and 3rd round for RB because the salary is acceptable and you can run them into the ground and move on. Many of these 1st round guys end up getting a huge second contract to justify the pick (Zeke, CMC, even Barkley got his option) and they just are not worth it. Give me Walker in the 2nd or Cook in the 3rd and a premium position in the 1st and I am happier than Hall in the first.

Who do you fear more - Henry or Tannehill? Of course Henry - so teams gear their defense to stop Henry and that does open up the field for Tannehill. Who do teams fear more: Mahomes or CEH Allen or Hall/Singletary Murry/James Conner If they fear the QB more - they will play cover 2 shell and protect deep against better QBs. That is the current NFL and you let the RB slowly move the ball and you rally to tackles. It becomes a game of patience- who changes first and when you have elite QBs - they want to move the ball through the air - so it becomes when do they take that shot. Hall would be a great pick and will help the team - his speed is nice and he is fluid in catching the ball. It is just that it is no longer the 1970’s and 1980’s where defenses gear up to stop the run - opening up the passing game. The NFL defenses look at ways to stop and counter you biggest weapon and if a second weapon ends up beating you - that is life. The Bills 2 years ago showed that with CEH when he had his best day in the NFL - they looked to stop Mahomes and if KC stuck with CEH - we let them. The Bills did the same thing versus NO and Kamara the year before. They try to stop the run with the front 4 and rally beyond that. The difficulty I have is do people expect Hall to have significantly more usage than Singletary because the reality is: 1) Singletary has a 4.8 YPC average on the Bills (mostly due to lighter boxes and multiple longer runs for TD) - in limited runs will Hall match that or like ~95% of backs be lower than that? 2) Will Josh throw more dump offs with Hall versus Singletary? Singletary was open - along with WRs short all game long - Josh, Mahomes, Murray - they all look deeper to shorter and take shots. We see guys open short all game against teams like Jacksonville last year, but they did not take what was given and I am not sure Hall changes that. He is still the 4th or 5th option on a passing play. I do think Hall can attack defensive edges better than Singletary with his speed, but as we saw with other speed backs - you need a line to open that up or the DEs/OLBs just force them to turn it in or bounce it further back and the plays do not consistently win in the NFL like college.

Because even the Bills GM has confirmed that he does not think Hall is a first round talent. When asked about positional value and a RB and this draft - the answer was we only have about 20 1st round grades in this draft. Then he went on to say that with positional value - if all of those picks are gone - it would take a phenomenal athlete at RB to overcome the lack of value in that pick to match up to other positions. Basically he would draft a RB in the 1st round, but that player would need to be exceptionally talented and all other positions with first round grades would need to be gone.

Yes - top 5 in scoring, top 5 in rushing yards, top 5 in rushing average per carry, Top 10 in passing yards, top 10 in TD passes, top 10 in rushing TDs, etc. They were one of the top offenses all year and that included multiple games with really bad weather.

And you know what happened when Henry was hurt - the Titans ran the ball nearly exactly the same with 3rd and 4th back-ups. Was it the o-line or Henry that drives the Titans running game.

That assumes he has better stats than 95% of the NFL running backs because that is where Singletary was. You also rush Hall versus Allen - you are going to average 3-4 yards less per carry than Allen was doing. I get the idea - it just has proven to be false for the most part in the NFL since the 2000’s. The top RBs in the league don’t win championships. People complain about Edmunds (a 2x pro bowler) drafted in the first, but think that a RB is the missing piece on the top offense in the NFL.

I am saying at no time did the Bills shift to 8 in the box to fully stop the run. Yes you can lose to a team running the ball, but are you more afraid of the Bills trying to beat you by running Breece Hall 40 times or Josh Allen?

I totally get that - the argument was that teams will have to put 8 in the box to stop the run. That is not happening. I also think he will be more fluid than Singletary as a receiver, but my guess is teams will continue to attack us as they have the Chiefs - back to front. Take away deep, double cover Diggs, and if we flip it short to a RB - rally to the tackle.