transplantbillsfan

Interesting article on improvements over the season from empty sets along with other notes on just how abysmal our offensive weapons have been https://buffalonews.com/2019/01/21/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-offense-analysis-empty-formation-brian-daboll-2018-receivers-running-backs-snap-counts/ Offense analysis: Josh Allen's improvement seen in empty formations Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said Allen’s improvement in understanding protections during the four weeks he was out due to injury, helped him run empty sets more effectively. “When you line up in a spread out formation it does a few things,” Daboll said. “One, it puts stress on your line if you’re going to hold it a little bit because now usually you don’t have some double edges there to help. Two, it allows him to see the field and expand the defense." ... The Bills ran empty sets on 7.8 percent of plays overall in 2018 and 16.7 percent of their plays the last six weeks. That would be about the league lead for a full season. In 2017, Arizona led the NFL in using empty sets 17 percent of plays, and the league average was 8 percent. Running a lot of empty sets on third-and-long situations becomes problematic, because against good pass-rush teams the quarterback often gets hit before the receivers reach the first-down sticks. The Bills went empty on 5.6 percent of plays in 2017, and Tyrod Taylor had much less production than Allen. Taylor was 18 for 39 for 160 yards and ran seven times for 46 yards. ... Late-season improvement ... WR shortfall ... Worst RB production ever ... First-down improvement ... Snap counts

Well, running is about the only way Allen could be successful with this ragtag OL and WRs Hopefully we give him some guys who can catch the damn ball.

Talk about inflation!

https://buffalonews.com/2019/01/17/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lorenzo-alexander-kyle-williams-nfl-football-vic-carucci/ On whether there are specific areas of his game he’s addressing. “Obviously, getting back to our drops, working on footwork, working on timing, and then just trying to get some throws up. Obviously, being smart about how many throws you do in this offseason, trying to get a little regimented plan on when to throw and when not to throw. Just being smart with that aspect, but still going through footwork drills, working on drops, trying to time them up with what we've got in our offense so then we get back into camp, all that stuff’s been rehearsed in practice and we’ve got good repetition with that.” On whether he’ll continue to work with Jordan Palmer, the Southern California-based quarterback guru with whom he worked in preparation for pre-draft workouts. “Yeah, I’ll still continue to work with him. He's got some draft guys right now and I’ll be seeing him pretty shortly and talking with those guys. Obviously, if he needs some help doing that I’m more than happy to give some advice. Going through this year, going through the draft process, there's some tidbits I can give them, but, yeah, I’ll still be working with (Palmer).” Very true. Incredible, isn't it? And how was Allen lower than Lamar Jackson, who was the longest shot to start a game this year? Hell, how was Darnold lower than him?

This is really only tangentially related to this, but interesting nonetheless:

I really think there were a ton of random errors, actually. To me it looked like there was a whole lot of miscommunication. It'd be great to hear from Allen and Daboll about every pass the way we did after that 1st Miami game with the wide open Zay miss in the EZ. Knowing that was a miscommunication sure made me feel a helluva lot better about that seemingly atrocious pass.

Editing the title of his other thread would have been fine and helpful, but it's not lazy to NOT constantly go and check a thread about a player being back every hour or every day just to see if contract details have been released. This is news worthy of being advertised for all to know before even entering the thread.

Thanks, appreciate you starting this thread. Certainly worthy of a thread of its own rather than buried in another thread

Thanks for this. I like that someone went through this exercise in some form. For that game what I came up with were 27 catchable balls (4 were incompletions), 9 were uncatchable, 1 throwaway, 5 tipped/batted, 4 interceptable. And yeah, you sum things up well

I understand that. I was never talking precision, I was talking accuracy in relation to the 4 other rookies who don't have the same narrative as being inaccurate. Maybe Allen is inaccurate. If he is, so are the rest of the rookies. But as to precision, I think people are unrealistic about what NFL precision for really good QBs are. Drew Brees is an absolute freak when it comes to accuracy and precision, but even he will miss throws. So according to that diagram you guys were pointing to earlier, his diagram might have 20 red dots on the bullseye and maybe 3 on the fringes. Is that still precise? What if it were 15 on the bullseye and 2 on the fringes? 13 and 2? 11 and 2? At what point does it become precise? Allen can and has made precise throws. And on the flip side, Brees, Brady and Rodgers make imprecise, even wildly inaccurate throws. If you're to trust these numbers are accurate, look who's #3 and #4 Yet, Brady and Rodgers are precision passers? I want Allen to be more precise, but he's never going to be a precision passer, especially by the definition you guys are focused on. But he doesn't have to be a precision passer to be a good, great or even HOF worthy QB. He just needs to be accurate.

I don't really feel like arguing the semantics of the meanings of a word. I think we're on the same page

Huh? You think that I'm arguing that completion percentage = accuracy? Am I misreading that? That's absolutely not what I said. This thread has turned into an argument over how to define accuracy and the difference between accuracy and precision. I get the reason that discussion evolved, but mainly my conclusion after doing this exercise is that as far as the rookie QBs go, Allen throws the ball where it should/could be caught just fine. Obviously he can improve, and I'm sure he's the first to tell you that. But his rookie year as a QB passing the football was pretty much as promising as the rest of this highly touted rookie QB class. Really the exercise I would want to do would be to explore previous rookie QB classes to make that comparison. Rookies always have to improve. Comparing him to Brees or Brady and criticizing him or any other rookie based on that comparison is just stupid. Allen's rookie season looked absolutely more than fine as far as rookie seasons go for him passing the football. And even though I expect and want him to improve, I think if we simply upgrade our offensive weapons to guys who can catch the damn ball and our OL is no longer a sieve, even with no personal improvements in the offseason and a replicated rookie season as far as accuracy goes, I think his numbers will still skyrocket and this team will still exceed the expectations of most.

Who the friggin hell is ESB?

Aside from arguing the details of accuracy vs. precision, which QB would you rather have, the one who puts 83% of his passes in a place his WR can catch it or the one who puts 76% of his passes in a place where his WR can catch it?

I added the raw numbers into the OP for the sake of transparency to anyone who wants to try the exercise because they don't trust my %s.

Okay here's another point regarding methodology. Those "good D plays" are still catchable. And I labelled them as such. If the WR has a ball that comes pretty much into his hands but a CB makes a great play swiping the ball out between his hands, it's catchable. A Hail Mary into a crowd of both Bills WRs and DBs is BOTH catchable AND Interceptable. I was talking accuracy, so that great play by the DB where the ball meets the WR was a catchable ball. But if say an LB jumps and tips the ball midway through that path from QB to WR, it was a tipped/batted pass. If ball is out of bounds but WR can reasonably make an NFL WR catch and drag his feet in bounds, it's catchable. It's only a 5 minute YouTube video. I don't see why noting the places you see the uncatchable passes happen is so difficult.

No. That's literally how I defined uncatchable right in the OP. Ball hits outstretched fingertips = Uncatchable Ball hits outstretched palm = catchable There's a big difference between those 2. You see NFL WRs who make the 1st catch every week. You see NFL WRs who make the 2nd catch never in history.

Or the missed TD pass in the EZ in the 1st Miami (?) game to Zay that looked like a downright terrible throw to a WIDE OPEN receiver but you heard from Allen after the game in his PC that he expected Jones to sit in the open spot and Dabol's immediate reaction combined with his PC tell you he thought Zay should have done the same. I labelled it as uncatchable because I wasn't judging miscommunication. But on the flip side, take Allen's TD pass to Jones against Miami on his quick short crossing pattern that Allen threw slightly behind him. As it turned out, that throw guided Allen into his TD pass. Allen said after the game he made a bad throw and Say made a great catch, so we know what happened in this case, but what if that exact same pass and play were made by Tom Brady or Drew Brees... would PFF or ESPN stats label that as a bad pass or brilliant ball placement? This judgement of ball placement is just so damn subjective, that's why I stuck with catchable vs uncatchable. Still subjective, but significantly less so.

I equated a catchable football with accuracy, plain and simple. Defining precision as far as exactly where the ball should have been in relation to the WRs is virtually impossible nowadays, that's why I didn't even try.

I'm not saying there aren't degrees of accuracy. Of course there are. But judging and valuing those degrees is impossible, especially on the NFL's new favorite pass: the back shoulder throw. On 78.1% of Allen's passes, he gave his professional WR/TE/RB a chance to catch the football. That was 2nd to only one of the other rookie QBs in a highly touted rookie QB class. And that's while he's pushing the ball down the field more than any other QB in the NFL, not just the rookies. Yeah, I think he's 'aight.

Agreed. Hopefully our WRs and TEs significantly better and Allen keeps improving.

You literally sound exactly like me in the preseason draft process. I guess we can chalk you up in the same category broadly as the national media and pundits: stubbornly dependent on analytics and hating to admit you're wrong. Well, my feelings about Allen last Spring were dead wrong. He might not become out Franchise QB, but he's already looked much more the part than I thought he would. Remember, this was a scouting pick, not an analytics pick.

Huh? Jordan Matthews hasn't been on the team for a few years. Who's ESB? They did trade for Benjamin. How'd that work out? Zay over JuJu and Kupp... okay... are either of those guys #1 WRs? Draft picks are hit and miss... naturally. Veteran Free Agents are known commodities. Beane and McDermott haven't done much yet to provide some proven offensive talent for their young QB.