transplantbillsfan

I'll explain why. Tight End is by far the weakest and thinnest position on our team right now. If you listened to McDermott speak at the owners meeting and were paying attention, you'd realize that despite the fact that the Buffalo Bills have never really valued the Tight End position, McDermott does. He established talked glowingly about Gronk, Greg Olsen, and some guy that was in Philadelphia I don't remember. He talked about the importance of a Tight End for a young QB. We have a young QB. We have 3 Tight Ends on our roster right now with less than 90 career NFL catches between them... and one of those guys is going to be brand new to the position. Hockenson has been pretty consistently ranked and mocked as high as 6 and no lower than in the 20s, so the theory that Beane will draft BPA could still put Hockenson (or Jacobs, who's also been in that same range) in a Bills uniform next year. Trading down is always an option, and I just said "1st pick" in the OP, not "at 9," which is part of the reason I put Fant there because I could see us trading back for our 1st pick and then trading back into the 1st round with all those picks we've acquired to get an edge rusher/DL in a very defense-heavy draft. Still shocked? Now think about the impact Tight Ends have had on the game over the last decade or so and the front row seat the Bills have had to witness, but not be a part of that impact.

Despite the glaring need and the fact that both guys often fall into our "sweet spot" in terms of prospect rankings? I think WR is another position McBeane are going to view as largely filled, though Metcalf wouldn't upset me, either.

Remember it's just our 1st pick... could be trade down... could be trade UP... and I think some are really underestimating our need at RB and the increasing value of the RB over the last few years.

EDIT: I added DK Metcalf to the poll in part because of another poster in this thread, but largely because I don't watch college football and have been catching up on him and didn't realize how much of an absolute FREAK he is, and if he's there at 9 I don't know if McBeane would pass on a Julio Jones / AJ Green / Megatron type WR simply because they feel we have 4 good WRs on the roster already. More weapons on offense, the better... primary point here... note: It was 13.22% without Metcalf in there. This draft just seems to be setting things up so that it's obvious we'll be picking a tight end in the first or, at the latest, second round. Maybe less talked about is our pretty obvious need at running back weather aging backfield, probably in need of wheelchairs. Teams carry 3 running backs. We have 2 capable RBs (but for how long?) and then a buncha JAGs. I get the BPA thing, but there are also different measures out there that have Jacobs, Hockenson and even Fant as top 10 talents in this draft. And for the "you don't take RBs in the top 10 or TEs in the 1st crowd", maybe Beane wants to trade back and get one of those guys, though I think they're still in play at 9. I don't really care what position we draft. I trust Beane. But we've pretty close to covered our OL in FA. No more desperate need. With the 2 Phillips monsters and Star our DL has at least 3 guys who Beane personally chose. Edge rusher is obviously a need, but I don't think it's a desperate one with Hughes and Lorax in there... and I think there's some faith in Lawson, too. We are devoid of clearly starting talent at TE. Maybe the guys we have can be successful, but it's certainly not clear they can be. That's why I really think we're drafting a TE in the 1st, through whatever means that happens. But our backfield, to me, is the elephant in the room that Beane really hasn't addressed, yet. We're clearly going to draft one. I just won't be shocked if it's in the 1st.

Our punter turnstile last year was just so damn weird.

This show has gotten really frustrating. Was that seriously the last episode of the season? I'm pi$$ed I'm so invested now.

Yep. I think Hockenson is our 1st pick, too.

#1: How do you, in fact, know the intelligence of those people "in the room" and that Rosen was the smartest among them? #2: How do you know, in fact, Rosen doesn't think he's smarter than Brady? I'd use the cliched line you ALWAYS use, but I'll just quote you using it yourself in the post right below this one...

Worst Thread EVER!!!

I already said I think Allen is going to be a legit candidate for 2019 for MVP, so I think that would obviously qualify him as a breakout player, too.

It was a rollercoaster for me in terms of my feelings about Foster. When we picked him up, I thought he was very likely to make the roster because of his experience in Daboll's offense. He really wasn't all that inspiring in the preseason, though, so I admit I was surprised he made the roster. When the season started, he sucked. Not surprised he was cut at all. But HOLY CRAP!!! When he came back he really looked like a pro bowler at WR. I hope he and Josh have really worked on chemistry. I legitimately think Foster could be a pro bowler this year.

Just as far as accuracy is concerned, I watched and broke down each and every pass by both guy: Catchable balls excluding Throwaways Allen -78.1% (2019) Wentz - 77% (2016) Throwaway/Spike % Allen - 7.1% (2018) Wentz - 2.6% (2016) Interceptable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes Wentz - 6.9% (2016) Allen - 8.7% (2018) Catchable pass % Excluding BOTH Throwaways AND batted-tipped passes Wentz - 81.4% (2016) Allen - 78.6% (2018) Here's the breakdown. Josh Allen Total passes: 320 Catchable passes: 232 Uncatchable passes: 63 Throwaway/Spikes: 23 Tipped/batted passes: 2 Interceptable passes: 26 Carson Wentz Total passes: 607 Catchable passes: 455 Uncatchable passes: 104 Throwaway/Spikes: 16 Tipped/Batted passes: 32 Interceptable passes: 41 Wentz in his rookie year threw significantly more than any of the other rookies this year, and if you throw out Wentz's first 4 games in his rookie year where he had one of the hottest starts you'll probably ever see out of a rookie, just look at the insane difference between his first 4 games vs. his last 12: 1st 4 games Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 85.4% Last 12 games Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 77.6% 1st 4 games Throwaway/Spike %: 2.3% Last 12 games Throwaway/Spike %: 3% 1st 4 games Interceptable Pass %: 6.6% Last 12 games Interceptable Pass %: 6% 1st 4 games Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 90.2% Last 12 games Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 78.9%

My major takeaway watching that interview is expect us to draft a TE in the 1st or 2nd round of the draft. McDermott talked glowingly about the importance of TE to a young QB unprompted for awhile and you could tell that he has such an unbelievably high level of respect for Gronk as a TE that he even refuses to believe he's retired. Hockenson or Fant will be on our team in 2019. That's my takeaway.

Tara is the most shocking one to die. How much longer is this show going to go? Are they just stretching this out forever for money's sake or is there a storyline they're following? The way Rick's last episode ended with him up in the helicopter alive, there can be absolutely no closure to this series without him showing up again. I honestly thought the episode where Rick decided not to kill Negan would have been the perfect series finale.

Not that these expert grades matter, but a week or 2 ago Daniel Jeremiah said he has the same grade on Kyler Murray this year as he had on Allen last year. Of course, Jeremiah also had Rosen with a higher grade than Allen.

You aren't paying attention.

I'm not. Others are. Are you paying attention? I did exactly that. Did you even read the OP?

First, congrats on civility and actually articulating yourself well for for the first time in a long time in any address to me Why didn't I consider those things? Because I wasn't considering judgement in terms of where the defender was, though that number shows up in batted/tipped and Interceptable passes. I wasn't considering personal injury like bunions on a foot. I wasn't considering omniscience like knowing that the sun was going to blind Foster on a perfect pass. I was just looking at catchable vs uncatchable while also factoring in spikes/Throwaways and batted/tipped passes and considering Interceptable passes in there, too. As far as trying to prove a negative, I did the exact same thing for 5 other QBs, so that just doesn't make sense. I want to see improvements, too. But his 52% completion percentage, was as much or more a result of SooOOooo many things other than accuracy. His accuracy was fine for a promising 1st round rookie QB in the NFL. Not great, but fine. He has improvements all facets of his game, for sure, but no more than the typical NFL rookie QB.

You understand that it's people, not technology that's doing the breakdown for these QBs, right? There's no AI that uses some kind of algorithm to decide what is an accurate vs an inaccurate pass. Also, those guys aren't using the dartboard approach. This is a highly highly subjective measure of ball placement, not accuracy. When you fall into the Goldilocks predicament, "just right" for one might be "too big" for another. As as you increase the variables, you also increase the gray lines, that's why I kept the gray lines at a minimum as much as possible. You're, making an idiotic argument. Our 3rd string TE was Logan Thomas, a college QB who eventually converted to TE in the NFL. Therefore, if Peterman were the only QB on our roster, he still wouldn't have been the best QB because our 3rd string TE would have been better. Even if Logan Thomas weren't on the roster, Peterman only would have come in close 2nd to the piece of dust floating around in the Bills locker room. That was not a logical fallacy. That was hyperbole... sort of...

There inevitably had to be SOME subjectivity, but you're vastly overestimating how often I had to do any kind of interpretation of any plays. WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand = Catchable WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and NOT have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand = Uncatchable About the only interpretation of plays I had to do were for back shoulder throws, which were often obvious. And I understand why you wouldn't believe this, but I truly and conscientiously tried to arrive, if anything, on the side of uncatchable with Allen.

My breakdown of the numbers for each QB have been fixed in the OP. The %s were put in correctly from the beginning. I just didn't transfer Rosen and Jackson in correctly in terms of numbers. I stopped typing in Uncatchable passes at some point because I thought it was mathematically obvious. And if you're wondering why Jackson's total attempts are 199, it's because I counted his playoff game.

Interceptable passes are NOT part of the total attempt count. Sometimes a catchable passes is also Interceptable. Sometimes a tipped/batted pass is also Interceptable. Thank you for cross checking the numbers. I just added the uncatchable passes in the list--which was simple mathematically--but now I will go to my notebook where I have the numbers to check on Rosen and Jackson specifically. I may have just typed something in wrong. It was a lot of work and a long post.

What kinds of homer assumptions do you think I made? Did you read my pretty simple methodology in the OP? Did you read any of the OP?

Of course Allen can improve his accuracy. Sounds like that's one of the big things he's been working on this offseason. But Allen simply doesn't have to improve his accuracy to any significantly greater degree than the 4 rookies this year or than Deshaun Watson did after his rookie year or than Carson Wentz did after his rookie year. This almost comical criticism of Allen's accuracy that's practically turned itself into a Meme is unwarranted.