transplantbillsfan

Hopefully this praise from Thursday's game is warranted and McDermott is really hitting his stride as a Head Coach. Might give our Defense the chance it needs in this game: https://theathletic.com/1423156/2019/12/03/upon-further-review-ten-likes-and-dislikes-from-week-13-in-the-nfl/ Upon further review: Ten likes and dislikes from Week 13 in the NFL 7. Sean McDermott searching for an edge I normally don’t address Thursday games in this space, but since we had three on Thanksgiving, and there were some duds on Sunday, I’m making an exception. One of my favorite parts of the Bills’ 26-15 win over the Cowboys was what Sean McDermott did at the end of the first half when Dallas was facing a third-and-3. The Bills showed a heavy blitz look before the snap, which seemed like an odd call. There were only 8 seconds left in the half, and Dallas had the ball at the Buffalo 24. Why risk giving up a touchdown there with a big blitz instead of playing it safe and forcing a field-goal attempt? The Cowboys lined up in empty, but after seeing the blitz look, Dak Prescott motioned Ezekiel Elliott back behind the offensive line and shouted out protection calls. Before the ball was snapped, McDermott called a timeout. CBS’ Tony Romo did a great job of explaining what was happening. “That was Sean McDermott faking like he was gonna blitz everybody to see what you were gonna do,” Romo said. “Outstanding. Just to see what you were up in. This is really smart, Jim (Nantz). He wanted to look, if he got in this on third down, what’s your plan for it? …Now Sean got a taste for, ‘If I do this in the second half on a blitz, I want to see what you’ve planned as an offense, as a coaching staff during the week.’ Really, really intelligent. He just bought himself one extra play of knowledge for the second half.” Is it the biggest deal in the world? Of course not. But I love that McDermott, even in that situation, was looking for a way to give his team an edge. That’s good coaching. The Bills schemed up a trick play that had John Brown throwing to Devin Singletary for a 28-yard touchdown. Josh Allen went 19-for-24 for 231 yards and keeps getting better. And rookie Ed Oliver (two sacks) had his best game of the season. The 9-3 Bills have a big one Sunday at home against the Ravens.

It's not just discipline--which I think you overestimate because we've still seen big chunk runs by RBs as recently as last week with Zeke-- it's about tackling. The MLB is pretty much THE MOST important cog in run Defense, and if he's not a good tackler, that's a problem. Edmunds is a big guy, but he plays small. He needs to start tackling like the behemoth he is. Yes, I was so glad (and pretty confused) when the Cowboys stopped giving the ball to Zeke.

Really sucks, but one of the biggest mysteries to me this season has been why every single team hasn't just played Buffalo with a run, Run, RUn, RUN, RUN philosophy... I mean, maybe this is the week McDermott solves the riddle and we legitimately and consistently stop the run rather than just relying on the other team to abandon it too early. I hope we do because you can bet the Patriots will have a very run-heavy gameplan if we haven't. And our problems go back even before the Eagles game, anyway. The week before when we played Miami our Run D got gashed. As good as Edmunds has been in the pass D, I think he's a huge liability against the run. To me, this is why I want to see run blitzes the entire game and just let Lamar try to beat us over the top.

It's bizarro world when I have to talk some sense into you folks, isn't it?

We have a chance to win this game, but I just don't know why anyone would be confident we will win this game. Our offense is fine, but we never come out like gangbusters and put up points quickly or in bunches. And I really do think some of that is the product of execution, but a big product of that is McDermott's approach, which is generally conservative. It's our defense that terrifies me. We're average to below average as a run defense. Harbaugh's a smart coach. He's going to run the hell out of Ingram and Lamar. Ingram, in fact, is the most similar to the RB who gave us the biggest problem this year: Jordan Howard. And how confident are we that we really bottled Zeke Elliott up on Thanksgiving? I think the Cowboys just stupidly gave up on the run game too early. Until Buffalo proves on more than just a few plays they can stop the run consistently, Harbaugh and the Ravens are likely to just keep running it down our throats. I expect to see Edmunds whiff on a few tackles he should have had because that's what he's done multiple times over the last 4 or 5 games. I don't want to totally slam our defense because our pass defense is fantastic. But there's a formula on offense for pummelling the Bills and the Ravens have all the necessary ingredients. And just curious, when was the last time the Bills beat Harbaugh's Ravens? It feels like we just get crushed every time we play them. I know that we can win this game, but I'm very much braced for us to get blown out.

We have a chance to win this game, but I just don't know why anyone would be confident we will win this game. Our offense is fine, but we never come out like gangbusters and put up points quickly or in bunches. And I really do think some of that is the product of execution, but a big product of that is McDermott's approach, which is generally conservative. It's our defense that terrifies me. Look at those numbers... we're average to below average as a run defense. Harbaugh's a smart coach. He's going to run the hell out of Ingram and Lamar. Ingram, in fact, is the most similar to the RB who gave us the biggest problem this year: Jordan Howard. And how confident are we that we really bottled Zeke Elliott up on Thanksgiving? I think the Cowboys just stupidly gave up on the run game too early. Until Buffalo proves on more than just a few plays they can stop the run consistently, Harbaugh and the Ravens are likely to just keep running it down our throats. I expect to see Edmunds whiff on a few tackles he should have had because that's what he's done multiple times over the last 4 or 5 games. I don't want to totally slam our defense because our pass defense is fantastic. But there's a formula on offense for pummelling the Bills and the Ravens have all the necessary ingredients. And just curious, when was the last time the Bills beat Harbaugh's Ravens? It feels like we just get crushed every time we play them. I know that we can win this game, but I'm very much braced for us to get blown out.

Good point. Completely forgot he was the RB behind Kaep under Roman as OC.

Allen and Cousins are currently tied at 5 for total TDs among all QBs.

Ya know another interesting thing is where Allen ranks in the NFL as far as total TDs by a QB. Right now, Allen has the 5th most TDs of any QB in the NFL. Cousins has 2 fewer than him right now, so he'll drop to 6th if Cousins has a good game tonight. Another interesting thing is that as I just went and adjusted all of Allen's rankings this week and have done so the last couple weeks, he trends consistently up a little bit in every category it seems with every game.

I'll just put this here rather than create another thread. It's somewhat relevant to this: https://theathletic.com/1426248/2019/12/02/this-week-in-bills-the-numbers-behind-the-no-huddle-transformation-and-an-updated-playoff-picture/ This week in Bills: The numbers behind the no-huddle transformation and an updated playoff picture If you think the Bills’ offense has been different since the Miami game, you would be right. The Bills averaged 19.3 points per game in Week 1 through 10. In the last three weeks, Buffalo is averaging 27.3 points per game, all wins. Here are some more numbers: In the Bills’ first nine games, Josh Allen attempted 31 passes out of the no-huddle and didn’t throw a single touchdown. In the last three weeks, Allen has attempted a league-high 38 passing attempts out of the no-huddle, to go with a league-high 265 passing yards and three touchdowns as well as 89 rushing yards and a touchdown. The no-huddle has pulled the offense out of a rut. Daboll emphasizes that matchups are the deciding factor when determining a game plan. The Broncos came into their game against the Bills allowing 9.21 yards per play against the no-huddle, second-highest in the NFL. The Cowboys entered their game against the Bills allowing 6.63 yards per play in those situations, seventh-most in the league. Daboll took advantage of both matchups. The Ravens, the Bills’ next opponent, allow 6.28 yards per play against the no-huddle offense. That’s ninth-worst in the league. ... the Bills have snapped the ball with an average of 10.8 seconds on the play clock while running no-huddle this season, making them the second slowest no-huddle offense in the NFL.

We're screwed then... this just isn't what we do

I thought Allen would hit at least 60% as a passer this year because he was a lot more accurate as a passer even in his rookie year than people think. As far as the rest of his stats, I thought they'd be even better

If I'm the Ravens, I run Ingram the vast majority of the game. Our run defense still scares the crap outta me and Ingram is the exact type of RB we're terrible against.

Who are our speed guys on defense?

Nah. We're getting more next year. No one nationally thought the Bills or Josh Allen specifically were any good going into this year. That Thanksgiving day game was the highest rated regular season game in 3 years. Josh Allen is becoming most watch TV. Expect at least one SNF game next year.

You're right, Edmunds is faster. I just looked at their combine numbers. But I just think Milano is a MUCH better tackler. I can think of multiple plays in the last few games alone where Edmund's blew into the backfield right after the ball was handed off to the RB and Edmunds couldn't make the tackle. No one is catching Lamar in the open field. The issue seems to be his ability to shed and juke tacklers. I have more confidence in Milano in those scenarios.

Wouldn't Milano be a better spy? To me he's the better tackler and he's faster.

Have other teams been blitzing him a bunch?

On defense, they're friggin good. #4 in defensive DVOA. On offense, they're friggin good. #1 in offensive DVOA. I honestly haven't watched them enough to form an opinion. They're #3 in pass defense DVOA but #24 in rush defense DVOA. So is this a Singletary game? Are they weaker on the interior or on the edges? Are they weaker at CB or Safety? Do we continue with what we're doing and just tell Josh if he sees a path to run, do it but protect yourself? I really hope we don't do a bunch of designed QB runs. We all know Lamar is the story with the offense, but Mark Ingram is EXACTLY the type of RB we have tons of problems with. Personally I want to see Frazier just dial up TONS of pressure on both run and pass blitzes and go for broke. Put 8 up front and emphasize gap responsibilities and containment on the edges and let the secondary earn their stripes. Lamar and Ingram will undoubtedly make some large chunk plays, but maybe this forces some mistakes, too. As far as the weather gods, do we really want utterly terrible WNY weather? Doesn't that typically benefit the offense? We're more than a week away from this game and this game more than the NE game in Foxborough will be our most difficult test.

https://theathletic.com/1418886/2019/11/29/seven-observations-from-the-bills-win-josh-allen-takes-his-biggest-step-to-becoming-a-franchise-qb?source=shared-article Is Robert Foster rising up the depth chart? While Daboll and the offense continued high usage with a specific personnel package, it became clear that it was no longer a core five. Receiver Isaiah McKenzie had been right around Beasley in snap counts over the past two weeks, though the Bills significantly cut into that against Dallas. Up until the run-out-the-clock moments near the end of the game, McKenzie registered only 54 percent of the offensive snaps, which is below his time on the field in previous weeks. The reason for the switch was to get Robert Foster, last year’s second-half darling, on the field and involved in the offense more. Foster accounted for 40 percent of the team’s snaps Thursday. That was slightly surprising given the hamstring injury he suffered against Denver, but the Bills liked what they saw from Foster’s two opportunities with the ball last week. They wanted to involve him more than they have since the beginning of the year, and you have to wonder if this is only the start of things to come. We saw Foster’s involvement surge in the second half of 2018 and he became a staple of the offense. While he won’t unseat Brown or Beasley anytime soon, it’s fair to wonder if Foster will overtake McKenzie in snaps given his usage Thursday night. Foster clearly puts a strain on the defense when he’s on the field, and having him and Brown as speedy bookends is enough to give any free safety a headache. We’ll see how the Bills handle the McKenzie-Foster split against Baltimore.

https://theathletic.com/1420189/2019/11/29/you-dont-like-us-but-we-winning-inside-the-bills-victorious-locker-room-and-what-it-means-for-the-future?source=shared-article Stats that matter 112.5 Allen’s passer rating on third down. Allen was 7-for-9 for 99 yards on third down, with five passing first downs and a rushing first down. Allen’s ability to extend drives with timely throws slowly took the life out of the Cowboys defense. He’s accounted for a total of 56 first downs on third down this season to go with a passer rating of 99.6 on third down.