transplantbillsfan

Ah yes, the Meteorologist fallacy I brought up in a recent post. "My Meteorologist said it would rain today but it was sunny ALL day! He's terrible at his job and should be fired!" Sure, forget the fact that Silver has been statistically INCREDIBLY accurate since he came onto the scene in 2008. Forget the overall accuracy on the national stage of the elections of 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2018. He got 2016 wrong... NO ONE should ever give him any credence because he got that 1 election really wrong! I guess the key to being a good populist is confirmation bias. Don't believe me? Here's a direct quote from Pete Navarro just a couple years ago with regard to his job: "My function, really, as an economist is to try to provide the underlying analytics that confirm his intuition. And his intuition is always right in these matters." You can't make this %#$+ up

Except this is wrong. Americans historically have always rallied around the President in times of crisis in terms of polling. It's just what Americans do, at least initially.

Without NYC we still have 27,000 people dead in less than 3 months and more than half a million people who've gotten the disease. And those numbers are clearly actually much higher since we're doing poorly at testing, having gotten to a mere 1% of the population of our country. And you expect anyone to laud Trump? For what exactly? Below is an actual image of Trump at the beginning of this Pandemic:

Are you a doctor? An infectious disease expert? A scientist of any kind? Why is it that all the experts disagree with your careless piss-in-the-wind attitude? This pandemic is really exposing how disturbing and misguided the populist movement as a whole really is with its wild mistrust of "elites" and "experts" and "science," and the constant and grating cherry-picking populists do to demonstrate why ALL of it is bad. Just because your Meteorologist told you it would be a sunny day and it's raining doesn't mean no one should believe their weather man. Pretty clearly, we need the elites, the experts, and the scientists. They know what they're doing and have earned these titles typically through years of experience and wisdom that you simply don't have, unless you answered yes to any of the questions above. So go back to playing Go-fish or Jenga and let the experts provide guidance on how to open the Country. Or just move to Georgia. The Governor there sounds like your kinda guy. You can go back out to movies and the gym again and even get a haircut. Who cares what those experts say, right? Some of you are going to be absolutely pulling your testicle hair out in the next handful of years as the country incorporates more progressive policies, which is almost an inevitability at this point once Trump is voted out of office in November. And looks more and more likely it'll be a blue Senate, too. But no, you don't just carelessly throw lives away the way some of you want. Amazing that's been the push from Faux News and its allies in conservative media. Just a well-oiled stupid machine over there.

I may have misinterpreted the multiple reports I read. If the Nursing home deaths are counted in the total but not tracked individually, that makes a little more sense. Except that last I checked--again maybe this changed in the last couple days, so correct me if I'm wrong--only somewhere around half the states in the country are even providing data regarding Covid-19 related deaths in nursing homes. That combined with our minuscule testing numbers PER CAPITA in relation to other countries and it'd be wishful thinking to not believe the total Covid-19 related deaths in our country are significantly higher than the already frightening 39,000+ number it stands at today, less than 3 months since the first confirmed US case.

Question: Shouldn't Trump also then be apologizing for his mischaracterization about testing? We're doing very poorly in terms of testing our population per capita, yet he's constantly puffing his chest out about how many people we've tested in terms of sheer numbers. Even per capita the US is top 10 in the world in deaths as far as countries with meaningful populations go. And that's just deaths that the Federal Government is tracking. Unless something changed in the last day or 2, our total deaths don't even include Nursing Home deaths, sadly. Those are obviously in the thousands. Trump needs to stop wasting time being at these daily briefings. He needs to just let the experts stand up there and talk. He's doing himself no favors with anyone other than his base.

So since we've established that these are JUCO highlights, anyone able to find some HS highlights?

Dude. Come on. You could have made your point just as easily by saying "teachers." Instead you singled me out by name, calling me into the fray of a conversation in a forum where lines are clearly drawn, politically speaking. And you and I clearly are not on the same side of the line, politically speaking. That combined with all the misguided vitriol dished out here regarding the teaching profession--and it's hard to keep track of the numerous posters who've insulted me in my profession, my profession itself, or both--you'd understand my response was pretty reasonable considering the underlying "line drawn in the sand" connotation of your post. I don't wish loss of income or job loss especially on anyone. Whatever money you've already lost, I'm truly sorry. I'm even more sorry for those in the hospitality industry you mention above, because a lot/most of them are low income workers in perhaps one of the few jobs they're qualified for due to a lack of education, among other circumstances. I'm thankful that the profession I chose, the profession that truly has been a calling for me, also provides extreme stability for me. Me getting paid as I figure out this whole distance learning thing from home is a Godsend. I'm fine shouldering some of the burden with some form of a paycut. 7-8% is the number I fall on because the Governor claims a $1.5 billion shortfall to make up as the reason for the 20% paycut to 40,000 government workers. Considering we have $1 billion in a rainy day fund and it's pouring, if we use most of the rainy day fund (keeping at least a fraction in there) then distribute pay cuts after that... well, it's more reasonable and moderately manageable, at least for me. It won't be manageable for a lot of state workers, though, which is why I also hope our Unions collectively continue to fight, which they will. Whatever the outcome, I will deal and manage. I consider myself incredibly fortunate to be living in Hawai'i during this Pandemic. I'm able to be outside every day. I surf 5 or 6 days a week in isolated, empty spots. My wife and I walk on weekends. I hope that your situation gets better quickly

First of all, I'm flattered you're thinking of me. Second of all, you aren't paying attention with your "not one call" bullcrap. Our Governor said this week his plan is to implement a 20% paycut to all federal employees in the Aloha state starting May 1st. Now, I don't expect that's what it'll end up being. I expect something in the range more of a 5% or 10% paycut. And guess what: I'm fine with that. Not 20%. In that case you're talking about mortgages, rents, and food on the table. But 5% or even 10% for a time I accept and understand. We teachers also bore the state's burden after the Great Recession with "Furlough Fridays," which were 18 Fridays teachers were forced not to work--meaning school closures--for a cumulative 8% paycut, which is significant. Any pay cut is significant in a state with the highest standard of living in the country. Third of all, stop putting your problems on teachers. You guys over here seem to bemoan teachers and almost any government workers. I have no idea what most of you do over here, but by the sounds of it, most of you are in the private sector. That was your choice. Many of you likely chose to work in the private sector because you can make more money. And by the sounds of it, there's one or two of you who've retired pretty young, so you did. Good for you. If you just got into the private sector in the last few years, my guess is you're really hurting. And I am genuinely sorry. But the private sector is also inherently more volatile and you lack the job security you would have as... say... a teacher. I still have a job and I thank God every day that both my wife and I still do--and in case you're wondering, my wife is in the private sector. I have been anticipating discussions about a cut in pay for awhile, and in-state, it came this week. Much like our "Furlough Fridays" when I used those as an extra day to surf and dealt with the blow to my bank account, I will do the same here. I will manage. And I will enjoy my Summer since in Hawai'i state schools would finish a month earlier than on the mainland, anyway... so my Summer will be coming relatively soon. It's funny. Teaching has been my dream job since I was a Freshman in High School. I love it and I'm damn good at it. As much as you and others might want to ridicule me for being a teacher, at the very least, since it's apparently such an easy job to do, I think more of you who are struggling in the private sector not getting a paycheck right now should reconsider and switch to a very rewarding and very stable career as a public school teacher. PS: Notice I said "public school teacher." My wife, a product of a private school, has tried to persuade me to teach at a Private school for YEARS where pay is higher... by a little. I would NEVER work at a Private school here, even Punahou, which is where Obama went. No Union. No Job Security. So maybe you and your Freebird/Sweet Home Alabama lovin should just consider being a teacher rather than pi$$ing and moaning about how good you think teacher's have it--your lifetime earnings might not be as high as what you're going to make in the private sector, but you'll keep you're job if you aren't utterly incompetent Since this is my dream job, anyway, I know I at least love work!

Isn't that just indicative of the EXTREMELY unique path Josh Allen had to take, though? I've said it and said it and said it: I absolutely didn't want to pick Josh Allen in 2018 and nearly broke my phone when I threw it against the wall after we picked him. But then I spent a day or 2 just watching and researching as much as I possibly could about him. His upbringing. His farmboy work ethic. Being a multi sport athlete and not taking part in the typical 7 on 7 camps most modern Franchise QBs in the NFL have participated in. The 1000 emails he sent with all his rejections. He was overlooked not for lack of extreme talent, but solely because of an EXTREMELY unique situation. That was what ultimately got me on board with the pick. That's why I am such a Josh Allen homer now.

Question: Did Chase Claypool say he will play TE? This is from The Athletic. He's ranked as the #2 TE https://theathletic.com/1745820/2020/04/15/mcginns-nfl-draft-series-scouts-on-top-wide-receivers-and-tight-ends/ McGinn’s NFL Draft Series: Scouts on top wide receivers and tight ends TIGHT ENDS 2. CHASE CLAYPOOL, Notre Dame (6-4, 238, 4.44, 1-2): Made 33 starts at WR over four seasons. Some teams are vociferous about him playing outside in the NFL. Others see him as a TE. “I think he’s big enough to be a tight end,” said one scout. “He’s every bit as big as Travis Kelce. He’s faster than Kelce. That’s who I saw.” His combine numbers were the best by a tight end. “I just don’t see the blocker at tight end,” a second scout said. “I don’t see how he holds up. People had the same conversation with Devin Funchess. You’re talking about the Jared Cook’s of the world. That’s just a different body type.” Finished with 150 catches for 2,159 (14.4) and 19 TDs. “The big ones that don’t make it, like Jonathan Baldwin, is because they’ve got a long ways to go because of (lack) of polish,” the second scout continued. “He’s not that far away. He’s fast, aggressive, has good hands. He was a dog on special teams. If you try to make him a multi-cut route runner, it’s going to be a problem. Let him be a big, fast, vertical, take-the-lid-off, contest-catch-winning guy. Mike Evans is a vertical route runner. I’m not calling this kid Mike Evans, but there are some comparable traits.” From Abbotsford, B.C., Claypool is the first Notre Dame signee from Canada since 1994. He posted a Wonderlic score of 27.

Emperor Trump... Yep. That's what he's going for. He's going to be flabbergasted next year when he's no longer President. Why do you presume that's a source I trust when I've literally NEVER cited Newsweek here?

So donate it to a food bank or something. Republicans like to puff out their chests about how charitable they are, so be charitable. Give your money to someone or an organization that needs it. Yes. $75,000 and under gets the full $1200 check individually. Once you make over $99,000 annually, you don't get anything. Food banks could really use the $1,200 you don't need

Such an obvious thread. Yes. Yes he is. But he's amazing at ONE thing... PR and spin. You absolutely have to be in awe of that. Look at how he's ultimately forcing at least a brief delay of printed stimulus checks to the American people just to get his name on those checks. That's Donald Trump for ya. Doesn't care that it may delay money to people who need it; he just wants those people to believe that he's primarily responsible for getting them that money. And ya know what, that strategy will work for a chunk of the population because a big chunk of the population is just stupid. Cutting funding to the WHO and having them investigated--more spin to shift blame off him. Retweeting #FireFauci tweets because a scientist with credibility contradicts him time and time again in real time. Ignoring Nursing home statistics in our final daily counts to manufacture a way to keep the numbers down. This is just Donald Trump. Atrocious President. Master of spin. We just had the deadliest day as far as this virus goes. Trump is going to try desperately to spin all this so he's reelected in November. It will be a valiant effort that will fall short, though. And finally we'll turn the page on Trump and even more will come out in future months and years to cement him as one of the worst Presidents in history.

I think the NFL is actually going to have a lot of pressure to have a season, even if that means in empty stadiums. Training Camps don't even start til the very end of July... long way away, and even if Training Camp is the first time teams meet, that month + of work is ultimately the offseason work that matters. I really think there will be a season. But honestly, who knows? Today was the deadliest day in our country for the disease so it doesn't exactly look like it's slowing down.

I'm actually enjoying Westworld season 3 more than I did season 2. Turned itself into a totally different series, which is why I think I'm liking it. Only watched the first couple episodes, though. Also finally started Ozark. Only 4 episodes in but really liking it. I understand the Breaking Bad comparisons, but I like the situation with Jason Bateman's character better as he stumbles into his life of crime because it's not voluntary like it was for Walter White, which makes it a bit more tragic and almost believable at the start.

It's perspectives like these that I know are unfortunately too widely held here and also why I will simply often ignore even responding to a lot of posts.

I'm not ignoring your other post, but I will only minimally respond to it because frankly, despite what you seem to believe, I am generally using this time to step away from the Internet and TBD in general to do other more productive things. Your question to me is a trap based on a false premise... actually a fallacy commonly used here in PPP. That's why I won't engage you thoroughly. But I will respond so you at least understand why I often just don't respond to posters. Even if you still think I'm an idiot or a jerk, at least it might help you understand me a bit more. I trust journalists more than I trust random Twitter guy. I'm not saying they're never wrong, but knowing a couple journalists as you do, I view the safeguard of journalistic "sourcing" as more credible than random Twitter guy who says whatever he wants and has no guardrails. Inevitability someone here (I have a good idea on who those posters will be) will cherry pick certain stories by certified journalists from mainstream media as proof they're not to be trusted. Arguing with someone latching on to those cherry picked stories that end up being a very tiny percent of the slew of other true, well-sourced stories is pretty clearly a tried and true strategy on this forum, but in the end it really just becomes a straw man argument. The straw man fallacy actually seems to be the go-to over here. And it's the weasley way out of a discussion. And it's why I generally avoid prolonged discussion in this forum and why I am not directly answering your post, even though I just basically did, at least indirectly.

Ummmm... except Trump has ALWAYS complained, criticized and blamed. ALWAYS. Even before he was President. It's his nature. So spare everyone the asinine notion that Trump is exhausted, so he's excused.

I have a thought: Stop quoting or retweeting pundits and their thoughts. Pundits are paid to spew their thoughts on a daily basis. Rachel Maddow, Tucker Carlson, Chris Hayes, Sean Hannity... it doesn't matter. Sometimes they have news within their shows, but what the hell is the point of retweeting what you did? You guys are all about snapshot victory laps over here and it's disturbing. It's actually exactly the reason I made that bet with you. That's a victory lap I get to enjoy for 4 full years. But these momentary jabs everyone over here is prone to taking--and yes, I get sucked into the "fun," too--are just silly. You quote Chris Hayes and then a guy insulting Chris Hayes. We are 2 1/2 months into the 1st case of this Pandemic in the US and almost 15,000 people are already dead. Hayes speculated that the White House model (which scientists can't seem to figure out where they got their protections) actually over projected in order to look like "heroes" after. Hell, Trump's already basically said that without his intervention millions of lives would have been lost. That opinion by Hayes, despite your condescension over here, was fairly logical. However, it was still an OPINION and just doesn't remotely matter right now. Right now, we are in a seriously tragic moment where more than 1,000 Americans die daily due to this disease. We won't have a clue how truly deadly this was for at least months, but probably years. But as far as being productive in here, maybe stop posting tweets that are 100% opinion from Pundits and the attached criticism of it. It's just silly and proves how much of a victim of the moment you really are.

The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Associated Press... all point to a similar level of failure and ineptitude on Trump's part at the beginning of this. And yet blind homers like @billsfan1959 will point to a timeline that sidesteps the point as proof that somehow Trump has been doing a great job.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened to freeze U.S. funding to the World Health Organization, saying the international group had “missed the call” on the coronavirus pandemic. Trump also played down the release of January memos from a senior adviser that represented an early warning of a possible coronavirus pandemic, saying he had not seen them at the time. ... Trump continued on Tuesday to defend his actions in the early days of the crisis. He played down memos written by Peter Navarro, a senior White House adviser, that were made public this week. In the late January memos, the most direct warning as yet uncovered in the upper levels of the Trump administration, Navarro warned that the coronavirus crisis could cost the United States trillions of dollars and put millions of Americans at risk of illness or death. Trump said Tuesday that he was not aware of the memos back in January The two memos — one dated Jan. 29 and circulated to White House staff and the other dated Feb. 23 and addressed to Trump — warned that the coronavirus outbreak in China could ultimately kill more than half a million Americans and cost nearly $6 trillion, according to several reports. Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon told The Post Navarro felt he had no option but to write the memos as infighting between two White House camps broke out over how to handle the COVID-19 outbreak, delaying the administration’s response. ... It took more than a month for the government to impose travel restrictions after learning of the outbreak — Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow were concerned about the economic fallout of banning travelers from China, Reuters reported on Sunday. So much of Donald Trump's ineptitude as President has been this notion that "Acting ________" is a good title because people somehow do their jobs better under pressure and he could easily use his trademark "you're fired!" If it's not working out. Except that idiot doesn't realize how impossible some of these jobs of EXTREME national importance are when you're always thinking "how do I spin this to make the boss happier so I don't get fired?" or "maybe I will just keep this bad news to myself." From Mick Mulvaney to Steve Bannon to... ALL these people Trump hires who his base might cast blame on (as Trump either already has or inevitably will)... IT'S HIS GODDAMN FAULT!!!! Can't wait til November when we get this jackass out of office. I just wish it were sooner.

Appreciate the concern, but I'm one of those rare lucky people who knew his career path when he was a Freshman in High School. Never changed and never wavered. Worked hard to earn both my undergraduate then Master's degree in 5 years total. Love my job. Incredibly rewarding. I'm doing damn well. Thanks for your wish, it was just utterly unnecessary. Use it on something meaningful, like this Pandemic ending.