BullBuchanan
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Posts posted by BullBuchanan
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4 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
Why do people keep saying this? We used 63 on him. KC’s pick would be 63. I get why people wouldn’t want to do it, but it’s the same pick.
They keep saying it because he has outperformed the pick and is liklely to keep doing so for at least the next two years, so why would you take lesser value and all the associated risk? It's opportunity cost.
If you bought a lottery ticket for $5 and you won $10, would you sell me the winning ticket for the original $5 just so you could maybe get a higher return? If James Cook re-entered the draft right now and everyone knew exactly what he is, he'd probably go in the top 10 picks. -
3 hours ago, SCBills said:
I think he’s pretty similar to Karlaftis, with a higher second contract ceiling.
Karlaftis just has a Chris Jones to play off of.
I won't argue that much, except Karlaftis has the clutch gene. If you put Rousseau on the Chiefs, I don't see them putting Rousseau ahead of him. Karlaftis at the $3.8M he was making this season is phenomenal, but at $22M? It would be a disaster.
You nailed the key though - he has Chris Jones - we don't. That's everything. If you can find that guy, or a combo of players that add up to him in aggregate, sell the farm to go get him instead of paying 2/3 the contract for a guy who is merely "pretty good". -
the 2nd last pick in the 2nd? No. He cost us more than that and he's in his prime. A top 10 pick in the 2nd? I'd think about it for sure.
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4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
You seem to base all of your evaluation on Groot on the Chiefs game. If you want to do that we should probably cut most of the defense.
He was really good throughout the entirety of the season.
In terms of all edge rushers in the NFL throughout the year, according to PFF, he had the 3rd most Forced Fumbles, 10th most Stops, 19th most sacks, 18th most hurries, 2nd most QB hits, 3rd most QB pressures and 11th most batted passes all while ranking 25th among players at his position in total snaps.
That type of production is the type of production that should earn a contract in the 10th-15th pass rusher range, which is exactly what we're talking about.
And then just imagine what will happen for his production when we get someone better than what we had in 2024 on the opposite side of the line?
1. Nope.
2. Yea, he was really "good". We need great. He would have been a backup on the Eagles or Chiefs. That's not good enough if you want to beat those teams.
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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:
How can you expect anyone to read beyond your 2nd sentence when this team was just 3 points away from playing in the Super Bowl???
Silly take.
Because those 3 points may as well have been 3 touchdowns for as close to we are to overcoming them. And then that team that beat us proceeded to get dismantled like they were a wild card team playing the 1 seed. If you don't think the same thing would have happened to us, you weren't paying attention.
You're clearly one of many people who seem to think we were "just a play away". We weren't. We're not at that level, and we never have been. We're a top 4-5 team in the league right now and have been, but climbing up each rung of that ladder is like climbing from 32-14. We're already a very optimized machine so needing to add the extra juice we have to to get over the hump is way harder than you think it is. You should already know this by the results we've seen the last 5 years. -
It depends what your expectations are. I'm on record saying that the earliest we have a reasonable shot to win the SB is 2026. I think we're 4-5 impact players away. If you want a real shot this year, you'd need to trade for just not one, but 2 impact players and then find a way to draft another 2 while filling the rest of our gaps with B+ players.
That would be akin to an "all-in" move, which Beane has repeatedly come out against, so I'd put it in the long shot category. More likely they take a shot on a guy like Malcolm Koonce and/or Osa Odighizuwa and then draft some players in the first 100 picks that they hope have upside. I would like to see them take a look at Andre Cisco and then see if they're in a position at the end of the year where a great draft + 1 or 2 marquee FAs give them a shot. if they don't hit on their picks and mid-tier FA gambles this year, that will push them back to 20207 at least.
Need to hope that Kincaid rebounds, Bishop and Carter aren't busts and Coleman has meaningful value on this team. -
9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
You just aren't being realistic about your expectations. Groot was an Elite NFL DE when it comes to run Defense and a B-B+ pass rusher. He had 8 sacks, 16 TFLs, 3 Forced Fumbles, 1 Fumble Recovery and 3 Passes Defensed.
If he gets paid $22m AAV, that would translate to about 8% of the 2025 CAP. % of the CAP at signing is really what we need to look at when it comes to these contracts and lucky for us, that's easy to find:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/_/position/edge/sort/average_league_cap_pct/dir/desc
If Groot signed a contract for $22m AAV, he'd be 15th in the NFL in terms of Edge Rusher contracts at signing when it comes to % of the CAP. He'd be just behind Harold Landry and just ahead of Joey Bosa.
And I say you're settling for a roster building strategy that's proven to be unsuccessful. A DE whose specialty is stopping the run isn't worth $22M a year. That guy is your Phil Hansen, not your Bruce Smith. You want a run stopping DE? Go get a guy like Shaq Lawson for $1M a year like we did last season. The cheifs completely shut down Barkley and they got blown out. It does not matter in any way that is significant. Groot isn't a bum, but he's not a #1 DE on a championship team.
You want to win a Super Bowl in today's NFL? Build a D line that can rush 4 and can't be stopped. That's how the Giants beat Brady and it's how the Eagles annihilated Mahomes. That means letting players like Groot go and bringing in guys like Crosby/Garret and pairing them with guys like Dexter Lawrence. In this case, good is the enemy of great. -
3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
You must not pay attention to Edge Rusher numbers.
$22m is what Bradley Chubb is making right now and he's the 10th highest paid Edge rusher.
$22m would actually be a good deal for Groot. I could see us paying him as much as $25m though.
If it were up to you, we would have made Trent Edwards the highest paid player in the league.
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4 minutes ago, Brand J said:
Because you need a great QB and teams with those QBs were loading up on WRs as the league turned into an aerial assault. Now, teams are seeing the value of pairing a great RB with a great QB as defenses continuously run cover 2 to limit explosive plays. A great RB makes your great QB’s job much easier. As you referenced, KC was so keen on stopping Barkley, Hurts had little resistance through the air. I’m for replacing Cook ONLY if we get another explosive RB in his spot. I don’t think Ray Davis or Ty Johnson as lead backs would get you the same amount of explosive plays if their workload was bigger. Less explosive plays = more of a struggle to score.
I think Cook is as much a product of our staff and system as he is an elite level talent. He's gotten significantly better since his rookie season which I attribute largely to his physique and playing style - things which I put under the bucket of development. I can absolutely see Davis developing in a similar, albeit different way. You'd definitely have to make another investment in the position, but I don't see that as a huge concern.
Have him play out this year and get his replacement in 2026 if needed. -
17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:
Now people want to throw away Cook because they think, wrongly, that he's easily replaced. They argue that any 4th rd RB can so the same job. How did Singletary and Moss work out? Why were all the top 6 rushers in the NFL last year top 2 round players. Why are 6 of 8 elite RBs listed in the PFF grade 1st and 2nd rd players?
He's easily replaced in the sense that having a great RB doesn't typically have a big impact on winning Super Bowls. Given that should be our number 1 goal right now. not a lot of sense in doing that. Barkley was the 1st "elite" back since 2013 to win the SB, and he was invisible, rushing for 2.3YPC. I'm sure his mere existance had a big effect on the gameplan, which has value, but he didn't directly.
I'd love James Cook for another 4 years at 9M a year, but I'm not paying him more than Barkley, Taylor, Kamara, Jacobs, Henry, or Mixon. Let the Raiders pay him $15M a year and we can keep trying to win a chip without him.-
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5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
That's the problem - it isn't about "how good they are" compared to other players, it's "Where is the market" based on the UFA's available and that the "best" of them typically is getting near top dollar from someone. Not fair, but that's how it works...otherwise there wouldn't be 10+ QBs making more than Allen.
I understand that, but I'm rejecting the deal based on the value of the market vs the return I get for my money. I'd rather trade Rousseau or let him walk and get a comp pick vs lock up that much of my cap in him.
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4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:
This is the problem with conventional thinking about any sport. The Bills score 30-31 points a game. That equates to about 4 TDs and a FG. To produce those points, the Bills need to average about 370 yards per game or about 6300 yards per season. Why do I care where the yards come from as long as I get the yardage? Why would I pay 15 mill for a 900 yard WR if I can get a 1400 yard RB for the same price who is effective in both the running game, protecting the QB and the passing game?
There was 27 WRs last season costing their teams $15 mill or more in cap. Only one of the 27 produced 1400+ yards and only 3 produced 1250 yards. Only 4 of the 27 produced double digits in TDs. That doesn't seem like a good allocation of limited cap space.
I think it comes down to position group efficiency and the dropoff in talent at the positions. You typically only have 1 RB that gets starting level snaps, but you have 3 WRs that do. The top 3 receivers for the bills last year only combined for ~1900 yards. Jamarr Chase got 1700 by himself. They're maximizing the impact of their limited starting spots there vs a team like the Bills that had Shakiir putting up high end WR2 numbers and then had a logjam of guys putting up 300-550 yards.
As far as why you don't just lean on the RB for yards, I think it's harder these days to just run the ball with success all game when the other team knows you're going to do it. Only a couple of teams a year seem to be able to do it. -
44 minutes ago, Magox said:
Can't happen, you can't get guys like Crosby, Garrett or Parsons for that amount of money. Parsons will end up signing somewhere around $33M AAV.
That's the going rate for people of Rousseau's and Benford's quality what I suggested above. Rousseau is an above average ascending starting DE, that's what they cost. Benford's level of play has been near elite and that's what they cost. You don't get rid of your two most valuable defenders who are young and ascending because you don't want to pay the going rates.
The salary cap has exploded the past 2 years by $50M and 4 years from now it will be up somewhere between $100 - $130 M more. Inflation baby!!
Didn't you and I have some arguments regarding Spencer Brown? You said $17M a year was way too much, I said that it wasn't. Turns out that you were right that $17M was what he was worth, he really is worth closer to $20M AAV.
Where are you getting that is the going rate?
$23M would make Rousseau the 10th highest paid DE in the league, putting him just below Crosby and above Chubb. I don't think he's in that discussion as far as talent goes. Every player above him is a legitimate difference maker and there are plenty below him that are as well. It would definitely stand out to me as one of the weaker values in the top 20. Greenard who just signed last year for $19M seems like much better value.
Benford has done a very nice job, but you're going to make him the 3rd highest paid CB in the league with his injury history? He's also got a great head start on CTE. I'm not going anywhere near top 3 money.-
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9 minutes ago, Magox said:
Now we just need to get Cook at around $12m AAV, Bernard at around $10m AAV, Rousseau at around $23m AAV and Benford around $21m AAV.
Get all these deals done and that frees up close to $20m from this years cap, extend Josh to an additional 4 years $245m and that will free up another $18m
Hard pass on Rousseau and Benford at those numbers. If I'm paying a DE that money, he better be a game-changer like Watt, Crosby, Hendrickson, or even Parsons. Rousseau is a a guy you want as your #2.
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2 hours ago, streetkings01 said:
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We didn’t miss out on the super bowl because we were a “Worthy” type player away, we missed out because we were a dominant pass rush and good secondary away!
Worthy nor Coleman was the right pick…..the right pick was us trying our hardest to jump up to #22 and taking Brian Thomas!
How are you reconciling these two statements?
The right pick was probably Cooper DeJean. -
We would have been similarly embarrassed. Philly's defense would have had Josh under duress all game, with our receivers blanketed and their offense would have eaten our defense alive.
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20 minutes ago, Awwufelloff said:
I can't believe he did it, by 20 votes! What a night for Allen. This means a lot to NFL players, he deserved this so much. So excited for next year!
By 20 votes? He won by 4.
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On 2/5/2025 at 12:43 PM, Mark Vader said:
Obviously this won't happen. What kind of approach should the Bills take?
Try to draft 3-4 of them this year. That leaves 3-4 gaps to fill. If they feel like the draft is deep enough, they could keep all 3 4th round picks, but I'd like to see them try to ship the non-compensatory one to get up higher into the 4th or 3rd round. The more top 100 players we have a crack at the better, because we need impact star players, not role players.
Beane says they're not going to be spenders in FA. We're not really expected to lose any impact players with Rasul Douglas, Ty Johnson, Mack Hollins, Damar Hamlin at the top of the list. I'd look to bring back Johnson and Hollins at the right price, but neither are critical.
I would try to trade Matt Milano If you can get an impact lineman for him. probably an extreme longshot, given his age, injury history, and contract situation. Even though he's my favorite player on the team, I think his best days are behind him, and if you can get something of value for him, now's the time. Williams looked very much improved this year, so I wouldn't be at all concerned about him taking over the job for good next year.
With all that will the team be a contender in 2025? No, I don't think so. Not a "real" contender anyway. I could absolutely see them getting back to the AFCCG, but They'll need 2 super stars that can take over the game, who currently aren't on the roster, and a 2nd year of drafts and FA may get us there.-
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Are you going to trade for 3 starting defensive linemen, 2 starting safeties, 1 starting CB (at least) and first man in on the outside?, and a #1 WR?
If not, then don't bother, because that's how far away we are from "winning this thing".-
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I wonder if they should just play the Super Bowl abroad. no team should have a home field advantage for that game anyway, and what better way to get foreign markets involved than with the biggest game of the year? It would add a lot of spectacle for TV viewers, and it's not like normal people got o the Super Bowl anyway.
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16 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
Yeah, but again it's all subjective
People thought Odell Beckham was going to be the best wide receiver of his era and I knew he was going to fall off a cliff because wear and tear
Having a good three years is different than having a good 12 years
If you're drafting a wide receiver in the top 15-20 yeah he should be special lol
But you need to be able to turn second round picks third round picks with really good talent and make better at the NFL level...
It's one thing to develop a player with traits and make him consistently great.. it's another thing to just take a kid top 15
And even then that doesn't always work because Sammy Watkins was supposed to be the best draft prospect at wide receiver in 15 years and look what happened... We got the best prospect and he busted
I never would have guessed that Mike Evans would become, by far, the best WR in that class, and a likely hall of famer while OBJ would become a journeyman on a slew of 1 year deals.
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Just now, Doc Brown said:
Something tells me you're not a used car salesman.
I am not. There's something about small, fast receivers that oddly have all the pros and cons of red sportscars though.
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Tyreek Hill could be a FA if you're willing to overpay a prima donna on the downside of his career with off the field concerns.
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3 hours ago, Chugga said:
It always goes back to 13 seconds. Everything goes back to 13 seconds. Aside from wide right, 13 seconds is the closest thing the Bills have to a Super Bowl win because I guarantee you if the Bills win that game after Josh played the way he played there wasn’t an NFL team assembled that was going to stop this team.
Every year that ends in a tragic loss during Allen’s tenure will forever go back to 13 seconds. That was the Super Bowl that should have been.
Not like there were two more games to play or anything. That's of course forgetting that KC beat us, who was beaten by Cincinnati, who was beaten by the Rams.
It's a nice story we tell ourselves, but in reality we were the 5th or 6th best team that postseason.-
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Chargers release Joey Bosa
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
AJ Epenesa is straight up better and $19M cheaper. Bosa was shot by year 3.