[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

1 hour ago, Psautcsk said:

What about special teams? Are we elite or not?

In terms of kicking we're very good. 7th overall in percentage.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

1 hour ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

Passing yards per game tells you how many yards you're getting from your passing offense. Who cares if it's in the air or after the catch? It's what your passing offense QB & WR are getting per game. We are also 12th in completion % so we are again near average. That means besides attempting fewer passes we aren't completing at an Elite rate. We're 19th in passing TDs. That's below average. By every metric our passing offense is not Elite. That's half the offense. 

 

Outside the stats, the eye test shows there are issues with our passing game and receivers winning on the outside. 

 

We're the #6 scoring offense. Colts are #1 and have more rushing and passing TDs. Bills are #3 in third down conversions. We're tied with 3 other teams for the 4th fewest punts. That's good but it's not #1. Our run offense is great, but it's not #1. 

 

As far as I can see we are not #1 in the league in any measurable offensive metric. The Colts are #1 in most categories, passing, rushing, yards & scoring. What is the Bills offense #1 in?

 

"Elite" means you're the best. Not good, not great (which the Bills are). Elite. Statistically they are very good but not Elite. (If they're Elite what do we call the Colts, Unbelievable?) It's a long season & hopefully they figure some things out and get even better. But as of right now they simply are not "Elite".

 

2025 NFL offense passing stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/z5PUSQ4uLG63ZGxfC

 

2025 NFL offense scoring stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/owozcgGNjeEMY9V5f

 

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Third Down Conversion Percentage | TeamRankings.com https://share.google/POrzAKETxthRdw3Wp

 

2025 NFL special-teams punts stats by Team | NFL.com https://share.google/LuaSiST5paWLMiCNn

 

 

None of that was what I was talking about, unfortunately.

I think your insistence on looking at aggregate metrics vs production per play is a trap that doesn't have any merit. Sorry.

56 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The description of his channel straight out says it:

 

"Here to examine and challenge pieces of sports and life... fun stories and a lot of bad data"

 

Videos like the QB position is the most overrated in sports. The most important person to a football team is not the coach or QB, but the GM. And now a video that has you thinking we're a very good passing offense and ready to go to war as the contrarian.

 

Moving on from all of this, I hope you're right. But the results in the field when we needed something besides the running game says otherwise. 

Does that video exist? The video you shared doesn't make that claim.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Uh... yeah. Was I supposed to post someone else's video when referencing that he posts strawman videos for clickbait? 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree on this. If you believe we have a very successful passing offense and watched the video of him calling Mahomes and the QB position as a whole overrated and think "this guy's cooking" - there's really nothing to talk about anymore.

What part do think is the strawman?

The premise is questioning how NFL teams evaluate the quarterback position, why QB performance fluctuates, and if it's better to build an elite team with a less elite QB vs having an elite QB with a less elite team.

There's no gotcha here. It just comes off like you want to be mad about something and you're taking it out on this guy.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

What on earth are you talking about? I *literally* posted a video example above...

you posted HIS own video. You're trying to use his own content to prove he's a fraud and that his science is invalid? How?

I watched that video already. 

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Because you're using an infamous creator who is known for taking straw man stances as clickbait. And arguing specific aspects in team sports to either magnify or diminish others. 

 

Like in the video I sent, it's not that Mahomes is great, but Andy Reid. Or the Offensive Line. No - Mahomes is great and they are also great.

 

This is no different. I don't have to watch it. The idea that bc Cook is the 2nd leading rusher in the league doesn't denote we have a great passing game "or Elite offense". This is a classic McKelvie idea for a "wtf is this?! I'll click on it" video.

 

The YPA and Attempt metrics don't mean we're not doing well just bc we don't have to. We have the on field results based evidence that that's not the case. We couldn't even beat the friggin' Falcons when we needed to pass to win. We couldn't keep up with the Patriots when we needed to pass.

 

This isn't "crying" about the passing game. This is looking at someone saying "our Offense is Elite" and "our passing game is actually pretty good" and disagreeing.

There's no evidence to any of this, and this is an evidence based discussion.

 

He follows a rigorous, science-based approach to all of his content, and you're literally the only person I've ever seen try to dismiss him out of hand as a fraud. If he's so intellectually dishonest, I'd love to see your own proofs. Should be easy for you, right?

You can't disagree with something you don't even understand.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I only see where he graphed the scenario wherein defenses react rationally to corresponding changes in run/pass%?

At 5:20 he graphs expected yards per play when the offense runs and the defense uses a run defense vs pass defense and does the same for pass.

I don't know where he got the expected yardage values for the calculation, so if we want to say that's wrong, that's fine.

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Hope isn't a plan, but I appreciate your optimism.

 

Also, Henry and Barkley couldn't be more physically different than Cook.  The record book for 100+ YPG isn't littered with small RBs.

I missed where I said I was relying on hope for anything. This whole discussion is about the Bills showing us their plan already, or at least the framework for it, and whether or not it just might be deceptively effective.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

his proof at is based on the premise that defenses are 100% efficient in matching pass plays w 'pass defenses' (no data for what that entails) and vice versa...which we know is not the case as evidenced by the wind bowl vs the Patriots that one year

If you watched it, why would you say that when he talked about it explicitly in the calculation and graphed it.

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Sure it was:  Barkley has done to once in his career--he isn't even close this year.  Henry has done in once in the last 3--he won't get there this year.  

 

Also, in 2 of the 3 games where Cook was under 100 yards, the Bills lost, with only 200 yards passing on average.  So, no.

Right, but they aren't leading the league this year. Every year is its own beast. You don't go into it with the same plan.

This year James Cook is the top dog, and barring injury, he'll likely stay that way.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

misdirection question. why not ask "will he?" or "why won't he?"?

 

The odds are he will not, based on historical data--this average is 50% higher than his past 2 seasons.  Also, multiplying  every RB who has played over every season over the history of the NFL, there have been under 90 100 YPG seasons total.

I dunno, wasn't a problem for Saquon or Derrick Henry.

Of course, the simple answer is, if they're trying to stop the run, it should be easier to beat them with the pass, so do that. Again, worked just fine for the Eagles when KC over committed to stopping the run.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

 i don't know where you get that from

 

in most game conditions except when WP is approaching 100 it's optimum to pass more

 

 

 

and EPA of run plays is only +EV compared to passing when WP is 13% or lower

ie teams should be passing over 70% of the time

Well, it seems you didn't watch the video either. The argument is made there that according to game theory, you should be running 54% of the time for maximum yards per play.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

what happens to this new elite Offense when Cook stops averaging over 100 YPG?

Does he have to?

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

please

 

nobody hates running the ball well...what i do hate is the kind of 1985 'nothing puts more pressure on an opposing defense than a good running game' type thinking

 

we are ABSOLUTELY trying to run out the clock. that is literally the whole point of running the ball at the highest rate in the NFL. and what that produces is fewer possessions, the majority of which are inordinately run heavy (which is not in fact as capable of 'hitting big plays' as passing the ball has always been +ev compared to rushing on average, not even taking into account a QB who accumulates EPA and TDs at an historic rate) 

 

the concept that a james cook run puts more pressure on a defense than a josh allen pass is both historically and practically ridiculous

Except apparently the math says that rushing slightly more than passing is the maximum +EV move.

2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You're right. I didn't. Bc I've seen videos from this guy before. He uses debatebro tactics and backwards logic to argue insane points like "Quarterback is the most overrated position in sports" and that Mahomes isn't that great too seem like the smartest man in the room:

 

 

Which I assume you're falling for with comments like:

 

 

You point to YPA's and Pass Attempts v. Run and ignore what is clear on the field and in other metrics.

 

If our passing game was successful, then in games where we needed it and weren't as successful in running the ball as we've been in most games - we wouldn't have lost. All season, save for Week 1 when teams didn't know our formula and weren't aware of how woeful our WR's were at getting open, we've either ran wild with Cook or lost.

 

Last week it was the same formula. And it worked against Carolina. But we will need to pass at a Championship level to beat Championship teams. And we haven't shown the ability to beat teams when the Running game isn't all we need or need the pass to stay in the game.

Then why are you even engaging with my post? The entire premise here is to talk about how Michael's insights correlate directly with what McBeane has been telling us, and if it's possible they've cracked the code.

If you just want to cry about how we should pass the ball more/better, there are already 1000 threads for that. This isn't that thread,

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

25 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

We're 15th in passing yards per game.

 

That's not "Elite" it's in the middle of 32 teams which is average.

 

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Passing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com https://share.google/suDRiZc3evnT25wY6

 

Passing yards per game isn't a stat that tells you anything meaningful. 

You could be 1st in passing yards per game with the lowest yards per attempt in the league. That doesn't mean you're good at throwing the football. It means you throw the football a lot in spite of how bad you are at it.

In the Bills case, they're the 5th best team  in the league at throwing the football. They just happen to not throw it that much. 

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

14 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Let me know how balanced we look when either the run game is taken away or we need to pass. Your preview is Atlanta and New England, maybe the divisional round the last two years.  

 

Football is situational. The formula that you say is efficient is only efficient with a lead and when we can run. It could be made even more efficient, as it was to some extent last year, with some type of downfield passing threat to keep the box clean. Even if our condensed passing game is efficient, it isn't functional or practical in other situations. Situations that the best teams in the NFL have to excel in to be considered to be the best teams in the NFL. This team has been top 5 in DVOA since 2020. It puts up stats, but fails in having enough ways to win when the defense is rarely one of them. Allen alone, Cook, and a usually hobbled Kincaid are not going to give us a championship team. Again, Beane thinking, why we are here, why we keep doing this year after year.   

How do you figure it's only efficient with a lead? Did you even watch the video?

We've made deep runs plenty of times now and we've fallen short for the same reason every year, namely our defense wasn't up to the task (especially in 2021), and we didn't execute the couple plays a game where we needed to on offense (2023,2024). I think if we had an elite defense, which they tried to build by getting Von Miller, then we'd see them just keep airing it out like they used to. In absence of that, it's come down on Josh's shoulders needing him to be perfect, which he was until he wasn't on the final plays of 2023 and 2024.

The scheme they are running now, takes that pressure off of him, because now Cook can carry an equal or even outsized share of the load. A use of 2 and 3 tight end sets with 3 TEs capable of being dangerous int eh passing game, allow sus to take advantage of anyone that decides they want to try to shut down the run game. You stack the box, they go over the top to Knox, Hawes and Kincaid. You bring in lighter personnel to defend that? Cook buries you on the ground.

23 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I would feel better if every game was a track meet, and we tried to make the other team try to keep up with Allen 

We tried that for years, and it always failed in January. Should we keep doing it until Allen retires?

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

10 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

This is a great argument, similar to one we heard in the offseason about how we didn't need to add any weapons to the greatest offense in franchise history. What's  funny is the video you posted should clearly explain what the pitfalls of this offense are. The entire video is about the necessity for balance to maximize output. How do you think a defense responds to a team that won't throw the ball more than 5 yards downfield? The entire defense starts to condense making all other possible outcomes less successful. What happens in high leverage situations like the last drive of a divisional playoff game where we have to pass in a traditional way and can't be dependent on screens and Cook? Guys can't get open.

 

Beane already sold the snake oil. We don't need anymore.  

And the data shows we have balance.

What you're suggesting is a hypothetical future in which we don't have balance. That scenario does not exist. If opposing defenses want to stack the box against Josh Allen, it will likely result in some of the most hilarious outcomes in the history of professional football.

You do realize we still have Josh Allen, right? Just because they aren't asking him to be Daunte Culpepper dropping bombs to Randy Moss all day, doesn't mean he lacks the ability to exploit a one-dimensional defense.

I'd recommend worrying about things that are actual issues, like the state of our RB room, or our defensive playmakers, rather than something that will almost certainly never happen.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Actually the one time we did try to out-offense the Chiefs we had the game won in 2021

 

Last couple times we've played them in postseason we've tried ball control and they just grind us down

Our situational defense has been drastically inferior to theirs. We definitely won't reverse that this year, but maybe we can close the gap?

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

First of all........define "shambles".   This 2025 Bills WR corps was objectively bottom 5 in the NFL before the season and they've even disappointed by that low expectation.   It's possible that the only group that's worse are the Jets.   If being 31st is "shambles".......then yes, their WR corps is in shambles.   It sucks.  

 

Olave is currently 26th in ypg........he is certainly a WR1.   Shaheed also has an outside shot at finishing top 32.   These guys aren't Jefferson and or Chase but even one of them would raise the Bills receiving floor considerably.   Shaheed being the more likely to be dealt.......would provide a deep threat component that should complement the short game of Shakir.

Olave isn't happening. He's not for sale. If he was, how would you feel if they traded for him and 2 weeks later he was concussed again and out for the year? Would you give Beane credit for the try?

There's no legitimate talent available. You're looking at Shaheed (another injury prone player) who has never reached his potential, Meyers, or some other lesser talent. At absolute BEST, those guys take some snaps away from Coleman/Palmer, but they don't completely replace them in either 2 or 3 WR sets. There's no player available who is a clear step above what we have that we can afford.

Don't get your hopes up for next year either. If you're looking for an Olave-level player, that's at least 2 years out, if not more.

IF we make a trade, I expect it to be for a Safety, #2RB, or maybe some other spot on defense. Beane has been telling us all along that he likes who we have in our WR room and I believe him.

[Rapp out the year]

Thank you Rapp!

Sincerely,
Me and all of your teammates who you would inevitably injure.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

11 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I think the bigger issue is can this team when forced to throw to boundary WR's on one v one matchups do that consistently? 

Is that a thing that's done by anyone consistently? Does it correlate to winning games?

Whenever I've looked at pass distribution charts, deep throws to boundary WRs haven't been high-frequency areas. It's mostly where you take shots when you get 1-1 matchups, where you have broken plays, or if you have an unbelievable talent outside you may go for a couple shots there. 

These are all 5+ year old examples but everyone of them states you make your hay within 10 yards of the LOS and int he middle of the field. Once you get more than 10 yards down the field on the outside, success plummets. Is this a particular weakness of the Bills or is it a feature of the game? I can't even find any data to tell us how we're performing on the boundary compared to the rest of the league.

https://operations.nfl.com/gameday/analytics/stats-articles/where-s-the-best-spot-on-the-field-to-complete-passes-and-not-get-picked-off/
https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/evaluating-quarterback-efficiency-using-heatmap-plots-9e9a5b6342cd
https://opensourcefootball.com/posts/2020-08-22-nfl-pass-location-visualization/

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

If we stipulate the Bills have an elite offense.  How bad do you consider the defense losing to teams like the Pat's and Falcon's who together have no wins over top contenders and struggling for much of games against true bottom dwellers like the Dolphin's and Saints? 

I think the defense played their first great game last week against the panthers. They had some great situational plays against the Ravens, but they've been annihilated by injuries. Based on what I saw from Hoecht and Hairston, I can see a scenario where there's a big turnaround there in a short amount of time.

I also don't discount the Patriots and Falcons like you do. The Pats have been on fire. They're 6-1 for a reason. They're well coached with a lot of young talent. They days of us walking all over them are absolutely over. The falcons have been playing tough all year. They played the Bucs to within 3, obliterated the Vikings, beat the Commanders. They have their own issues, so they aren't what you'd conventionally call "good", but they aren't a toothless team.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I just don't see how you can look at the talent on the field from the pass catching room, the metrics of guys (not) getting open, and the metrics of (poor) separation, the results when our running game isn't unstoppable, and the simply point to some YPA metrics and think this is a "secretly elite offense".

 

Very good Running offense, sure. But that alone doesn't make an "Elite" offense. Our passing game, more specifically our WR'a, keep it from that.

I think you're also missing the point about what it means to be a "secretly elite" offense. You're hammering the team for not having an obviously visible elite passing offense. Things that the metrics you're pointing *might* be relevant to (though I'm not so sure about the correlation to WR separation and winning football games). |

What I'm trying to tell you, and I'm guessing you didn't watch the video based on your responses, is that the Bills aren't even trying to do what you're suggesting they're failing at. They are "secretly elite", because in spite of looking to some people like they're failing, they're not just succeeding, but at the top of the league. That makes it secret, because there's a chance everyone is actually fooled about how they're winning football games.

The running game has been traditionally elite, no doubt. Most people can see that. What folks aren't seeing however is just how successful the passing game has been so far. Is it perfect? No absolutely not. They've had a couple stumbles, but it's very early in the season. We've been heavily injured, and Josh hasn't been playing his best ball at times. We're still in very good shape, considering all of that, and there are a lot of reasons to think we're on the right track here if you take the data into account as well as the content int he video.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

It goes back to the same overall point. Our passing woes are not a result of simply not needing to pass. 

I guess the point is that some people on the internet think the Bills have "passing woes".

I don't. The data doesn't. Internet people do. 

11 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

Another case of stats do lie

 

Data can be manipulated to fit whatever agenda you wanna push

 

This passing game doesn't pass the eye test

"Eye tests" are about the least reliable way to measure anything. 100 people have 200 eyes and all of them lie.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm not sure that's a proven formula either.   It's just happened THAT way a few times in the last 50+ years.

 

The 2012 Ravens were 10th in scoring offense and 12th in scoring defense had like a 150 point point differential deficit to the Patriots.......but they won the AFC and then the SB after going 10-6 in the regular season.

 

I did an average last year of the ranks of SB winners in the past 25 years and it was like 7th offensively and 8th defensively.

 

Non-great teams without any "elite" side of the ball can win SB's.......if circumstances fall in their favor or they just get hot like Flacco did...... too.

 

The Bills have a punchers chance because of Josh, their running game and the potential of their defense to get pressure and create turnovers.

 

So I don't buy the "they can't win" line of thinking.........but I think it's A LOT less likely to happen without improving the quality of their receiving corps.

 

It would be a pretty big outlier because for the last 10 years the teams that win it usually have a second receiving option who ranks in the top 32 in receiving in the league.    Basically, doubling down on receiving talent has been paying dividends for a pretty long time now.

 

 

 

 

Didn't say it was a formula, just that you can win that way.

The 2012 Ravens aren't really a repeatable formula. They were just a well rounded decent team that rode an out of this world playoff run by Flacco to a SB. The comps there are probably the 9-7/10-6 Giants teams that beat Brady.

I just think the folks complaining about WR aren't being realistic. It's pretty clear to me that those folks aren't looking for a depth-type piece like Jacobi Meyers or Rasheed Shaheed. They make it sound like our WR room is in shambles, but one of those guys comes in and all of a sudden we're a SB contender? I don't buy it.

It's more like they want a top 10 type player like Chase, Nacua, jefferson, St. Brown, etc. That obviously isn't happening. IF we get even one WR they'll be somewhere between 25-50. That's a role player/depth guy. We've got a roster full of those guys already, so I don't think Beane's going to go out of his way to add another one.

One thing that MIGHT be possible is they look to upgrade the TE room since they seem like they really want to use them a lot. Maybe they finally go out and try to get Hockenson. I also wouldn't be shocked to see them try to upgrade RB2, since their entire philosophy is basically on Cook's shoulders right now and the dropoff is massive. Maybe Jordan Mason, Nick Chubb, or even Devin Singletary could be options there.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

 

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yards Per Attempt can be manipulated by the amount of attempts. YPA doesn't really mean much. It's how many attempts have been made and how many yards gained on those attempts that truly matter.

 

You ignored my question. I can't tell if you're missing my point or ignoring it.

If the Bills have a high YPA but a lower than typical yardage total, it simply means they haven't had as many attempts as other teams. You want a higher total? Throw the ball more. The bills haven't needed to throw the ball more than they have, so the total is lower. That's a good thing. Our running game has been bearing the load, but our passing game is as efficient as the best passing offenses in the league, they just don't pass as much.

If they happen to have a need to pass more, expect the yardage total to increase.

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

if only it were so simple

 

unless you think we're 30th in attempts for no reason

We're actually 28th in attempts per game. And that's going to be significantly skewed buy our blowout of the Panthers where there was no reason to pass. If we threw our per game average in that game (29) instead of just 19 passes, we would rise up to 23rd.

We've been so successful on the ground, is it really a  question why there are less opportunities to pass?

[Are McBeane secretly creating an elite offense?]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Who even says the offense has to be effective?

 

That Broncos team that won the SB a decade ago didn't have an effective offense.

 

If you want to have an historically good defense, like a top 10 all-time level, then yea, you can occasionally win a Super Bowl like that too. Those are typically pretty hard to come by though.