BullBuchanan
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Posts posted by BullBuchanan
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We could have done that last year if we wanted. Dorian Williams was playing great football last year until he got benched for a returning Milano.
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55 minutes ago, Brandon said:
We won't know the final grades for at least a couple of years, but the preliminary grade I would give is a B+.
I'm not a huge fan of effectively going all in on defense, but I can't argue with the value of the picks...Jackson, Strong and Hancock, in particular.
The message of this draft is that they had everything they wanted and needed on offense. That's the only way I can interpret taking a blocking TE and competition type picks at OT and WR that will struggle to make the bottom of the roster 200+ picks in. And now, after Carter and Bishop last year, plus the three DL FAs this year and now this draft, the defense has everything it needs as well.
No more excuses. This is the team they want.
Their defense isn't set. They still need safeties. Hopefully Bishop becomes on of those guys. If not, they'll have to prioritize getting vets next year.
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2 hours ago, K D said:
Who did we get that's a difference maker? Looks like a bunch of depth and role players. Teams that win it all have stars and pro bowlers. We have Josh and who else? Don't say it's because of where we pick. Look at our draft vs the Ravens or Eagles. We need pro bowlers to move the needle
each of the top 4 picks we made have that potential. Now they just have to execute.
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B to B+
They addressed the one starting hole on the team which was CB2. They then added 3 high upside prospects to our defensive line which should massively upgrade the unit as a whole.
My pitch all along is that the team is 4 stars away from being able to win a Super Bowl and my hope is that they'll have those pieces following next year's draft. If two of the top 4 hit, which I think they can, we'll be well on our way. Next year we need 1, maybe 2 safeties, a running back (probably), and potentially a pass catcher unless one of Palmer, Kincaid, or Coleman turns into a legitimate stud.
I was really hoping for Skattebo this year as his angry running would have been a great complement to Cook, but we'll probably need more of a #1 guy in front of Davis next season assuming Cook is gone.-
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No. This is just the beginning of Phase 3 with our defense.
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12 minutes ago, Orlando Buffalo said:
The Bills need to only pick high ceiling guys today, and I think he fufills that requirement. He likely is cut and then practice squad but in two years could be a monster
No chance he's cut. He's a 4th round pick, not a 7th.
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1 minute ago, T.E. said:
I said the 9th guy in our rotation, not the 9th DT picked in the draft.
My bad. Doesn't really change anything. Both would likely be inactive on gameday barring injury unless the WR could play special teams. Our top 4 WRs are locked in for now. Maybe we do another trade at the deadline to augment the top 3 if Coleman continues to struggle, but there's no reason to do that now. We have a luxury that we should be able to coast with an imperfect WR group during the regular season letting young guys get reps, and if an elite player comes available later you can go get him.
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8 minutes ago, T.E. said:
What's ironic about it, exactly? Who do you think will have a bigger impact for his respective team?
What's ironic is that you think a player is bad because he's 9th, while the guy you wanted was 17th.
We're not some aspirational wild card team. Neither one is/was going to be in a position to have a material impact this season. A WR drafted in the 4th would have been fighting for the 7th or even 8th most targets on the team behind Palmer, Shakir, Coleman, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook.
I'd much rather get d line talent that will be getting significant rotational reps day 1. Both the DT and the DE should get 30-40% minimum, and our CB will hopefully be a day 1 starter. Getting 3 starting caliber players out of a draft is a reasonably best-case scenario.
furthermore, we have multiple WRs locked up on relatively inexpensive long term deals. Replacing Shakir, Palmer and Coleman are not financial priorities. Jones is in the last year of his deal and Oliver is entering year 3 of 4. Replacing both of them with cheap talent on rookie deals going into next season allows us to spend money elsewhere, like buying a weapon on offense.-
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32 minutes ago, Steptide said:
Are the bills seriously comfortable at wr? I feel like they're taking a big risk trusting the guys they have
For this year, they're gonna have to be. Who else were they going to get?
The miss was not getting Metcalf. I also liked Palmer as a 3rd guy on the outside as $4m a year or so, but what do I know?
WR should be a priority next year. -
1 minute ago, T.E. said:
I was referring to how we spent a decade trying to build up the defense to stop Brady and never did. We also had no chance of beating him because we didn't have enough resources for pffense. Then the Eagles played him in the Super Bowl, and won because they could score lots of points.
We are making the same mistake with Mahomes. A McDermott defense is not going to shut him down in January. It never has. He is not going to suddenly get good at generating a pass rush.
We've tried outscoring them for 5 years and we've failed at every time. It's not an either/or decision when it comes to offense and defense. You need both.
What the eagles proved is that, with an elite defense you can take Patrick Mahomes from the best football player on the planet to merely very good. You can beat very good, if you're elite. The Eagles offense on paper is digusting, but what won them the game was their defensive line. It's also what allowed the Giants to beat the Pats twice.
We already have an elite offense. We're lacking a WR #1, but we weren't getting that in this draft without trading up to the top 10. Now we need an elite defense, or we'll keep losing to teams that have both.-
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4 minutes ago, T.E. said:
Jesus, you would think that entire first part where I talked about how we were trying to stop Brady with defense and Philly was able to beat him by outscoring him would've been enough of a clue that I wasn't talking about last year's SB that Brady didn't even play in.
Who's Brady?
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21 minutes ago, T.E. said:
Chiefs just drafted Royals. Can't wait to see how our 9th DT in the rotation shuts down that KC passing offense!
Did you watch the Super Bowl?
Ironic how you're complaining that we took the 9th best DT instead of the 17th best WR.-
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41 minutes ago, T.E. said:
Philadelphia showed that you can win Super Bowls just by outscoring great QBs.
That's literally the opposite of what they did when they won. The shootout was when they lost.
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1 minute ago, Not at the table Karlos said:
People are thinking Walker is this big run stuffer. He’s not he’s a big 3 tech. But the bills like penetrating lineman.
Yea, agreed on that. He's definitely not that. I wonder if this means that they'll try to convert Carter into a 1T or if they think he's a longshot to be a long-term impact already.
at the one we've got:
Jones
Ogunjobi (maybe spends time at the 3 too)
At the three we have:
Oliver
Hoecht (spends time at DE too)
Carter
Sanders
Walker
I like that after this draft, our last DT and last DE in rotation should either be a rookie with promising upside or a dependable veteran. There shouldn't be any weak links. With Williams as the 3rd LB, our front 7(6) seems resilient.
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5 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:
This guy doesn’t get low enough. He’s pretty much Jordan Phillips
There's nothing wrong with Jordan Phillips outside of his Personal Fouls. He's been a big time player for us. If we get a rookie version of him in the 4th, I'm happy.
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6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
Huh? Of the "high-risk" positions, all except RB are passing-game players (CB, Safety, TE, WR). And CBs are the safest of the bunch. But the fact that all the high-risk positions are in the passing game should tell you how hard it is to play well and how valuable players who do excel are. The willingness to gamble is high too because of the value of the passing game: 71 CBs and 77 WRs selected, second and third only to edge rushers (a combo of LBs and DEs). The bust rate for centers is extraordinarily low because a) you shouldn't be taking centers in the first round, and b) if you do, you're probably picking a generational player at that position.
Huh?
What's the point? I was asked why I didn't favor taking CBs in the first round, not why I didn't favor taking other positions in the first round. Not sure what I'm supposed to do with this. I want 1st round picks to be game changing players, because I'm paying a premium for them both in opportunity cost of the pick, and salary. I don't think elite CBs fall into that category due to their cost, and the nature of modern offenses.
BTW, not an indictment of the player at all. Hopefully he's a great player. Didn't watch any Kentucky games, so no opinion on him. -
4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:
They were 8th of 12th position wise in terms of hit ranked. The 4th of 12th position wise being only 10% higher. This study was also done six years ago. I'm guessing you're a never draft a WR in the 1st round guy since they were dead last in hit rate.
So, in other words, they don't have anywhere near an "average" bust rate. 10% is a massive statistical difference.
The study is six years old - so what? You think 2024 will be more kind to your assumptions as offense continues to widen the gap over defense? Did you look at the even more damning PFF data?
I'm not a fan of reaching for a WR in the first round, no. If I'm going to draft one, I want it to be my number #1 or maybe #2 rated WR. I don't want massively flawed/limited players like Coleman in round 1. There's also a big difference in that an elite WR can put points on the board every single play he's on the field where an elite CB, especially in today's game can't hope to take points off that frequently. Even the best CBs get beat, and when they don't, there are 4-5 other players that can beat the lesser quality coverage. If your elite WR is nothing more than a decoy to take away an elite corner, you can still win that way. -
Just now, Doc Brown said:
So you just proved they have an average bust rate compared to other positions. Congratulations.
I did? Funny, all the Red text showing that they were near the bottom of the hit rate on position led me to conclude otherwise. Weird.
1 minute ago, Mango said:I'm not the draft guru that others are on this board. But going through YouTube, these comments, and a bunch of prospect profiles and I the only one who thinks he reminds me of....
Leodis McKelvin
Tremendous athleticism. Can run with anybody and everybody. On the small-ish side. Needs to get stronger. Sometimes trouble tracking the ball.
I was a McKelvin fan btw. He played 9 years. Good cover corner who struggled to track the ball at times but almost never got beat. Not a world beater but a decent starter in the NFL. With the 11th pick everybody wanted a Nate Clements replacement. We got a solid starting outside corner. If McKelvin were picked 30th people would have viewed him differently. (Aside from that kickoff he fumbled)
If he didn't play for the Bills he likely would have been out of the league a lot sooner. A McKelvin comp is not high praise, IMO.
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4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:
Five Dane Jackson's? PFF had him ranked 214th of 222 CB's last year. Carolina couldn't wait to get rid of him. Also, how is it harder than any other premium position to afford them on a second deal? I'd also like to see the bust rate of a first round CB compared to other positions.
One of the riskiest positions
also this: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-what-historical-hit-rates-reveal-about-positional-success
You could have googled it. It should be common knowledge to people who watch a lot of ball. -
13 hours ago, Low Positive said:
He wasn't drafted early. It was our earliest pick, but by the time he was taken we were into the crapshoot of 2nd-3rd round grades. You have to hope for the best. I wanted a DT but all the best DTs were already gone. At least CB is a premium position. The genius Eagles took a freaking traditional LB one pick after us and they traded a 5th for the right to do that. Dallas took an OG at 12. This draft sucks.
30 is early. You can routinely get quality starting CBs in later rounds. Benford was a 6, Jackson was a 7, Douglas was a 3.
They also have supremely high bust rates, and when they don't bust, it's hard to afford to keep them on a second deal. When you draft a 1st round CB, you're often paying them a premium over a solid veteran, and you have no idea what you're getting. We had to pay Elam the same amount that Jackson made going to Carolina. Jackson is far from elite, but he's at least an NFL talent.
By the time their 3rd year comes around, you have to decide if you want to pay them premium money or let them walk. The fact that you need at least 5 competent players at the position just makes it worse. Give me 5 Dane Jacksons over 1 Sauce Gardner and 4 Kaiir Elams -
It's whatever. I hate drafting CBs early. At least he's fast?
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Just now, Aussie Joe said:
I wonder if they still like Ingram ?
He might be out the door now if they draft someone
They can still like Ingram as a rotational player. I still like Hamlin as a rotational player/backup.
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6 hours ago, Warcodered said:
If there are punters in the draft definitely wouldn't be surprised if we take a late pick on one. But meh punters most important is to have a consistent holder for Bass other than that I'll take what we can get.
I'd rather bring back the QB who holds kicks so that we can credibly fake it on occasion.
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14 hours ago, Doc Brown said:
The full Josh Allen experience in that one.
-Catches passing TD
-Two 30 plus yard runs
-Rolling right a bunch of times and making unbelievable throws to Knox, Brown, Duke Williams, and Singletary.
-Fumbling up 8
-Throwing into triple coverage to a fullback.
-Trying to leap defenders six yards from the first down marker on 3rd down.
-A blind lateral to Knox in overtime with multiple defenders on him going down.
This one is gold.
Brandon Beane on WGR
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by BullBuchanan
I hope they do that kind of thing every single year, should the situation present itself. Draft picks are wildly overvalued compared to proven talent.
A perennial playoff team should almost always be looking to load up on pieces at the deadline that they think can help them in their playoff push. At this stage of our roster development, we have no holes. We have places we can get better, places we can get deeper, and places where we can get cheaper, but if you claim the goal is to win the Super Bowl this year, next year's 90th pick doesn't help you do that.