Governor

It’s not that in Florida. Look, everyone knew a year ago that Florida would be the state that’s lagging behind the nation when this is all said and done. I thought it would happen sooner, but it’s certainly coming in the next 3 months. They also have a swollen steroid head Governor that will do whatever he can to hide the numbers. Anyone reading this…..it’s not safe to be there anymore. You need to be ready to pack the cars up and go if you value your life. Be proactive. People asked me months ago why I was being hard on Florida. Well, it’s here. This isn’t going to end well. Are you willing to play Russian roulette and put your life in the hands of DeSantis all because you’re unwilling to accept that your ideology is dead? That doesn’t sound like freedom to me. When Katrina hit N.O. People wondered why they didn’t grab a backpack and their child’s hand and start walking north up the highway. I mean, why would you sit there and die? It feels like the same thing in Florida in the coming weeks. I’d rather live.

What’s yours is mine. Do you have a nice property? I’m going to put an ugly trampoline on it.

We’ll, I’ve taken a shift in the last few days. I think the administration should push hard until it’s approved, then set the clock for 30 days. I think that’s being very reasonable. At this point, there’s millions of people sitting there waiting to be forced to get it (federal mandate) just so they can turn it around and use it as a political weapon and save face and say they were forced against their will. 30 days and you’re on your own. Let’s states(borders) and business handle from there. No federal mandate necessary.

Florida, Missouri and Texas now account for 40% of new coronavirus cases in U.S. https://news.yahoo.com/florida-missouri-and-texas-now-account-for-40-percent-of-new-us-coronavirus-cases-172032337.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvL3FEV05JSlQ1V1c_YW1wPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEWAurewjonxOXFa5ytgM5xolHELOe9F0AxD27P2DDPez3OPPfV_3nPr83ILwYiO2KCDwj4ARMosMOecTP38hT5R0VQ2torQkzdjzYFLz5NdRahdkgpCfff8W_nbViDg5T0Rjksuf6hB-GiGmXPrlyy0dbbiJNildY66znH7P1ly Florida reports highest daily COVID-19 cases since January. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/564470-florida-reports-highest-daily-covid-19-cases-since-january Florida sees 87% spike in Covid cases among children under 12. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/florida-covid-cases-latest-children-b1888854.html

We don’t appease white nationalist/Christian extremist terrorists in this country.

Should Gym Jordan, the guy who attended the meeting which planned the terror attack on the people’s house, sit on a committee investigating that terror attack?

If you know any kids that aren’t vaccinated due to having Q-parents, this site can help you. https://www.vaxteen.org/

What a mess! The GOP is flailing around with no midterm plan whatsoever. They want an “alternate” investigation to run along side the real investigation for their rubes to gobble up nightly on their “alternate reality” news networks. By including Gym Jordan, voters see they had no intention of participating in an honest investigation into what happened that day. Really bad strategy moving forward. They couldn’t misread the electorate any worse than this. Looks like Liz is going to have the last laugh here. I guess we knew that already. McCarthy was never going to make it. He’s about to crash and burn.

I used to live in Smyrna in The Vinings (if that still exists) back when that was Newt’s district. Somehow, that’s a blue district now.

I agree. I’m not seeing this red wave coming at all. The senate looks pretty safe to me and while everyone is fixated on the seats R’s can take back with gerrymandering, there’s also some seats Dems can actually take in other places. It’s going to be very close. What Trump did in Georgia was absolutely incredible. He lost BOTH of those senate seats all by himself. He won’t be finished until he destroys the entire party.

I have no idea what’s truly going on in Georgia. I freaked out when Biden pulled resources from NC. It was ready to flip last time. That could’ve had something to do with how awful Cunningham was as a candidate. I would like to hear an explanation on that some day. Keep an eye on Governor Cooper. If he ran, he would carry that state easily. Arizona I would assume will go back red unless it’s Trump. What was it you were trying to prove me wrong about again? https://scottrasmussen.com/the-polls-werent-wrong-in-2016-but-the-analysis-of-the-polls-was-horrible/

The polling was good and you lost. Not sure why that’s so difficult for you guys. We expanded the map and Trump didn’t. NC flips blue next time.

She will run but she’ll lose. If Trump runs then Biden runs. If he doesn’t, Newsom runs.

I can think of 4 or 5 that would be much better than Harris. I would even take Stacey Abrams over Harris.

No. Many states like Nevada, Illinois, Wyoming, Iowa, Wisconsin, etc. don’t do a lot of polling so you’re going off of an outdated poll. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/upshot/why-this-is-the-iowa-poll-that-everyones-waiting-for.html

What was new in 2020 was this: Lots of new fly by night pollsters starting releasing polls late showing the race tightening or Trump winning. They were hoping that their polls would get added to the RCP averages to make the race appear closer. It didn’t really work. The race never got close.

You’re confusing national polling with state polling. Some state polling was bad in 2016 and it improved in 2020. Some states are notoriously hard to poll or only poll a few times per cycle. Every state has its own quirks. Florida hasn’t mattered since Obama/McCain. They’ve become irrelevant to the process.

Gallup has it at 9 right now. I don’t trust gallop but we can get a general idea. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/04/07/gallup-survey-shows-largest-increase-democratic-party-affiliation-decade/7114860002/ Now remember, that doesn’t mean that all of those voters regularly vote. You look to “likely voter” polls for that.

If you use Voter ID from 2008, Dems should have between 6-7 point advantage. What is that number right now today? Dunno. You’d have to ask Nate Cohn. https://newrepublic.com/article/107813/no-the-polls-arent-oversampling-democrats

Basically, the problem pollsters have is that there’s a huge number of traditionally reliable Republican voters now calling themselves Independents because they’re embarrassed to call themselves Republicans. Trying to figure out exactly how many there are at any given time and how many are your normal “lean” Republicans you would normally see, how many lean Dem, isn’t easy at all. When you see the recent polls with huge over- sampling favoring Dems, that’s why it’s happening. It isn’t some pollster conspiracy to make Donald sad.

I don’t think you’re following our conversation. Kamala isn’t going to be the nomination so you guys should get that out of your heads.

You’re supposed to oversample based on Dem registration and likely voter advantages. This is a tracking poll. It tracks movement. Have you ever had 4 to a flush with 2 cards to come and hit that flush? We’ll, that’s what Trump did in 2016.

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-clinton-in-dead-heat-as-race-hits-final-two-week-stretch-ibdtipp-poll/ The difference in 2016 was that there was movement late in Trump’s direction after the Comey announcement. Polling couldn’t catch up with that movement before Election Day. Ed Rendell and others were sounding alarm bells in Pa. They saw what was happening. There wasn’t enough time to poll those states again. There was no movement in Trump’s direction vs. Biden other than the normal race tightening that occurs a week out.