Logic

Thanks man. I also think we agree more often than we don't. There are just a small handful of things we have differing opinions on, and we tend to both passionately defend our positions in lengthy diatribes to one another over the course of the offseason. But our discourse is always respectful, well reasoned, and hopefully at times expands both of our viewpoints on various issues. We never veer into personal insults or that kind of nonsense. In short, it's the exact type of spirited debate and discussion that make this forum fun. I always enjoy the back-and-forth with you. As for remaining flexible and open to new information and not having take-lock: ever since I went into full on depression/panic mode the night the Bills drafted Josh Allen because I was so sure he'd be an epic bust, I've realized: I don't know nothin about nothin. Best to remain pliable and not take anything too seriously.

He hasn't even earned anything close to top four reps, though, from what Broncos beat reporters are saying. It's something like: Sutton Patrick Reynolds Vele Mims Franklin Benjamin Allbright said Broncos fans should not be expecting Franklin to contribute this year whatsoever. Pretty damning assessment. I'll admit to being a "draft Franklin on day 2" guy. I'll also admit to being an idiot.

Given that the Chiefs added three trophies to their case over the past six years and the Bills added none, it's also sort of a Bills problem.

This is correct. HOWEVER... Sometimes, the process of getting into position for the player the GM wants causes him to miss out on a player ANOTHER team wants, and sometimes that player is at a position that was also a need for the GM that traded the pick away. For instance, part of the Bills' calculation for trading down and selecting Tre'Davious White was to stockpile draft picks to be able to acquire a quarterback the following year. But quarterback was ALSO a need for the Bills in 2017, and rather than maneuvering all around to stockpile picks for a future QB selection, they could've stood pat and DRAFTED Pat. Instead, in positioning themselves the way they wanted, they allowed an all time great player to go to another AFC team. Fast forward to this year, and Beane was once again simply positioning himself to get the player he wanted. But given that the Chiefs traded into the Bills' spot to take a player AT THE SAME POSITION, and given the sting some fans still feel from the LAST time we traded with KC on draft day, you can understand why some are a bit leery of the move. Yes, the GM's sole concern should be to do what's best for HIS team. But when a rival GM who seems to be better at roster building the past few years than our guy maneuvers into the Bills' spot and takes a player at the same position the Bills want, it should be understandable that it gives some of us a moment of pause.

Been lots of talk of the Eagles using Smith out of the slot a lot in Kellen Moore's offense this year. https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-fallout-immediate-takeaways-after-commanders-trade-wr-jahan-dotson-to-eagles Over the last three seasons, Smith has averaged 2.48 yards per route run from the slot compared to 1.65 when lined up out wide. Last season, Olamide Zaccheaus led the Eagles in wide receiver snaps from the slot (304), with Quez Watkins and Julio Jones also playing 100-plus snaps each. None of the other wide receivers in Philadelphia earned a receiving grade above 65.0 from the slot, while Smith graded at 77.7. The Eagles initially planned for DeVante Parker to be their third wide receiver, but he retired in May. Parker primarily played on the outside, which could have shifted DeVonta Smith to the slot. Now, it looks like Dotson will be the third receiver for Philadelphia, and he has spent 65% of his career snaps lined up out wide. While the Commanders experimented with him in the slot this preseason, Ainias Smith will likely lead the team in snaps from the slot this season. The Eagles hired Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator this offseason, which brings an exciting prospect for DeVonta Smith. Moore has a history of success with top wide receivers in his offenses, which could bode well for Smith's continued development and production in Philadelphia. In Moore's offense, Dallas' CeeDee Lamb typically lined up as the X receiver in the Cowboys' two-receiver sets and in the slot in three-receiver sets, which is the best role for PPR scoring. Lamb finished as the WR19 in 2021 and WR5 in 2022. Last season, when Moore was with the Los Angeles Chargers, Keenan Allen typically played as the Z in base and then the slot in three-receiver sets, and he finished at WR8. Allen was the X in base at times last season and had the X role in base in past seasons. That role, which Smith hopefully takes on, seems like a clear path to a top-10 season.

Agreed. I was team "draft Xavier Worthy in round 1 and Javon Baker in round 4", thus putting talented guys in the pipeline at both X and Z. But here we are...

Two. Josh Allen and Kyle Allen (waivers, Pittsburgh) Mitch Trubisky to IR.

I agree that he is not strictly a slot. I think the Eagles will be employing him as the Z and using Devonta Smith as the slot in Kellen Moore's offense. Or, more likely, Smith and Dotson will be interchangeable as the Z and slot. Either way...I wouldn't mind someone whose skillset mirrors Samuel's. For one thing, Samuel has turf toe, and having someone that could replace his important role in the offense would be nice. For another, if Samuel DOES stay healthy, I don't see the downside in having two diverse, interchangeable Z/slot types in the offense instead of just one. Oh well. Moot point now. Bills stand pat...again.

Jeudy and Dotson were both guys I would've made moves for. Marvin Mims -- who was a 2nd round pick just last year and seems to have fallen somewhat out of favor with Sean Payton's staff -- would be another. I have the sneaking suspicion they won't be trading for a WR, but like you, I certainly wish they would.

Yeah he fell out of favor with the new coaching staff over the Summer. Some beat writers were swearing up and down that he was the locked in WR3, and he DID have 100% route participation with Jayden Daniels in preseason, spending a decent amount of time inside. Nevertheless, they clearly didn't think too highly of him to be willing to flip him to a division rival. This should open things up for Luke McCaffrey, their third round pick, to possibly claim the slot job.

Would you have paid the price the Eagles just paid? A 3rd and two 7ths for Dotson and a 5th? Personally, I feel as though it would've been a good trade for the Bills, given the extra 2nd they have in hand next year. One could argue that perhaps his skills would be redundant, with similarities to Samuel and with Shakir seemingly having the slot locked up. Still...He's a talented guy who could benefit from a change of scenery.

Yeah, Hardy has been a revelation. If there's one thing this scouting and coaching staff seem to know how to do, it's find incredibly capable corners on day three and in UDFA. Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, Christian Benford, Alex Austin, Nick McCloud, and now Daequan Hady. Funnily enough, I saw Hardy's size and body type and thought to myself "this guy is just gonna be a returner". He didn't match the typical size and body type, and Taron Johnson is locked in as the nickel for the forseeable future. Then the kid actually started playing. He has been INCREDIBLY impressive both inside and outside, and is now -- as someone else said on this forum recently -- gonna be making this roster as a CORNER. His inside-outside versatility will make him a very valuable piece, and he has room to grow into a starting level player down the line. Another late round gem from Beane and co, once again capably coached by McDermott and his crew of DB whisperers. Speaking of DB whisperers, don't look now, but Jahleel Addae as DBs coach may have been one of the bigger underrated hires of the year for the Bills. He seems to be working wonders. We now appear to have a deep and versatile CB depth chart. Who'da thunk it?!

I thought Kaiir was a trade candidate prior to camp and the preseason, but I don't think he is any more. The coaching staff and front office have shown a lot of patience with him, and now it FINALLY seems to be paying off, as reports out of camp suggest he was routinely making plays and was rotating with Benford as a starter. It just doesn't make sense to me to invest three years of patience and development into a first round pick, and then when he's FINALLY starting to show something, to ship him off for a 5th or 6th round pick. I think the following corners all make the roster: Douglas Benford Elam Johnson Ingram Hardy If one of them DOESN'T make the final roster, I expect it to be Ingram. The other guys are all locks, IMO.

But only if Chan was coaching.

I knew I'd find you here talking about CJ Spiller. I just knew it.

If you remain silent and listen reallllly closely, you can hear it. Quiet. QUIET! Quieter still!!! Shhhhhh. LISTEN. Hear it? Yep. That's the sounds of our offense quietly getting better.

There are a few answers, all of them reasonable but incomplete. The truth is this: The board tends to be incredibly reactionary and have incredible recency bias. When the Bills just reeled off two impressive wins, people are on here talking about which hotel to book near the site of the Super Bowl. When the Bills just lost a last second game by 1 point to a great opponent, people on here are saying the coach and GM needs to be fired and we ought to get a look at the backup quarterback. This board is a steady stream of great, passionate, and intelligent conversation. But its all on a raft, floating in a sea of exaggeration, hyperbole, trolls, and duplicate threads. You can either climb on the raft and drift about, having a grand old time discussing how Spiller and Parrish were ahead of their time, or you can drown in the deep waters of stupidity. Your choice. As for why it's so negative right NOW? The last few seasons ended in rough fashion, and this was a rough offseason. Check back after we beat the Cardinals in week one, and we'll be comparing flight prices to Super Bowl city.

Can't watch at work atm. I've seen Peyton's clip, but who does Brady list and what does he say about Josh?

According to Overthecap.com, among all teams in the NFL, the Chiefs allocated the 3rd, 4th, and 3rd most cap dollars to their offense the past three years. During the same time period, the Bills allocated the 24th, 12th, and 26th most cap dollars on offense. It's a big disparity. Quite simply, the Bills consistently spend a lot more on defense than they do on offense. In terms of draft picks, they Bills have NEVER drafted a 1st round receiver. Yes, I realize they traded a 1st round pick for Stefon Diggs, but it doesn't change the fact that since 2017, not a single 1st round receiver has been selected by the Bills. That seems strange to me. They finally COULD have selected one this year, but even then, they traded down, watched three other teams take receivers, THEN picked one in the second round. Yes, they spent their top pick on an offensive skill player two years in a row, but only after a streak of using their top picks on a CB, DE, DE, and DT. If "over-investing" is what you'd call what I wanted them to do at the WR position, then fine. Sure. Let them "over-invest" in that position. Lord knows they've been over-investing on the DL for years now, with mostly mediocre to slightly above average results to show for it. As for Coleman: speaking only for myself, it was not Coleman's speed, but his lack of separation skills that worried me about him as a prospect. I'm not sure if you're familiar with Matt Harmons Reception Perception profiles, but they're a great predictive metric for WRs, and they weren't kind to Coleman. Everything from advanced analytics like YPRR and aDOT and dominator rating and breakout age, to his best single season receiving yardage production in college not topping 800 yards, to the eyeball test of watching his "all snaps" videos on YouTube across various games...all of it put up red flags for me. I, too, love his work ethic, his will to be great, his personality, and his physical traits. In terms of his actual production profile and how it portends to success as a pro, I had and still have doubts. I also agree that his best usage in the pros -- at least to start out -- would likely be similar to the way the Chiefs used Rashee Rice last year, playing him from the slot where he can get free releases rather than sticking him at X and forcing him to get off the press. I feel they're setting him up to fail somewhat, or at least not leaning into his strengths as a player. It's so much more than just his 40 time that gives me pause. But annnyyywaaayy....all of that constitutes the "re-litigating a well-discussed topic" that I mentioned earlier. We all just have opinions, as you say, and we're all ROOTING for Coleman and the Bills WR corps to succeed, even if our respective confidence levels in his and their ability to do so differ. Cheers and Go Bills 🍺

If you truly feel that surrounding Josh Allen with prime weaponry in the passing game has been a priority for this organization the past few seasons, then so be it. I disagree. I also disagree with the notion that Coleman's 40 time is the only reason people didn't like the pick, but there's really no need to re-litigate that issue at this point in time. It's all been discussed ad nauseum.

Thanks. I agree with what you say here as well. The only argument people seem to be able to offer in rebuttal is "well, this year is a reset year anyway, and NEXT year they'll be making some noise!". Which, okay, fine. But as @HappyDays pointed out, if that IS the path they've chosen to take, then it would've made all the sense in the world to get a few young receivers in our building THIS year, have them get their growing pains out of the way THIS year, and then NEXT year they'd be ready to "make some noise" along with the rest of the roster. Instead, even if the Bills draft another WR or two next year, they'll be rookies, and we'll be hearing "we can't expect them to fully contribute until 2026." At the end of the day, I realize that you can't fill every need every offseason. You have to choose where to attack roster improvement, where to concentrate your spending and draft pick allocation. Just once, I wanted them to make wide receiver the TOP priority in the offseason, even if it meant steady vets and not superstars, as you say, and a couple draft picks. We've seen what happens when they focus their attention elsewhere and "get by" at WR. It hasn't gotten the results we want. I was/am ready to see what would happen if they loaded up the WR room and were willing to "get by" at other positions, and this year was a great draft class to do it with, but they chose not to. Frustrating.