Logic

I think that if Allen has his best season -- maybe even an MVP season -- it will mean that the decision to oust Diggs was a good one. That Allen felt freed up to just throw it to whoever was open rather than have to placate an ego. That the necessity of Allen taking greater ownership of the offense and becoming more of an alpha leader led to a rise in the level of his play. That the way Beane decided to rebuild the offense was a good one, that Brady is a good playcaller. Ultimately, it will mean that my concerns were unfounded, that I was wrong, and that Beane knew what he was doing. If you have followed my posting career here at all, you'll know that I'm not the type to cling to my priors, or to root for a player or team unit to fail simply because I predicted struggles. I'd WAY rather be wrong. If the offense is gangbusters and Allen has a great season, I'll happily eat a giant plate of deep fried crow, and will admit that he was given an effective cast of players and a good playcaller. Now I have an honest question for you: If the passing offense struggles this season, slips multiple spots in the rankings in terms of scoring and yardage production, and the Bills offense is -- overall -- noticeably less effective than it's been the past few years, are you going to label it "growing pains" or excuse it away in some other fashion, or will you be willing to admit that some of us less optimistic fans were correct, and that Beane did not set Josh up optimally for success? I'm ready -- and even eager -- to eat my crow if and when the time comes to do so. Can you say the same about yourself?

Just wanted to report on having seen Dead and Co for three consecutive nights at the Sphere. First of all, let me just say, I am NOT a fan of Las Vegas. I think I would have really loved the 1950s, mob-owned, Frank and Dean and Sammy, cocktail dresses and martinis and poker table Vegas. I do NOT love the 2024 Vegas, which I found to be little more than a sprawling, stinky, expensive, Disneyland/Times Square of a place, whose only goal seems to be to get you seated in front of a slot machine, hammered drunk, after spending $200+ on a dinner for two. Now that that's out of the way... The shows themselves were amazing. I can't even really put into words how cool The Sphere is. Just an all-encompassing, immersive, at times overwhelming technological marvel. At times, the experience was so novel and so cool and so interesting that all I could do was grin like an idiot and laugh like a schoolboy. Half of the videos I took feature me laughing maniacally in the background. The band played mostly well -- particularly on the third night -- and at the moment where they weren't playing as well, I was still so caught up in the spectacle of the graphics that I didn't mind as much. All the band members wore black on night one and did a night-long tribute to Bill Walton, complete with #32 stickers on their guitars, Walton stuff up on the video screen, and more. They played a few of his favorite tunes, including a Fire on the Mountain (his favorite Dead song) encore. Very glad I was there for that. The below videos are not my own, and are just taken from YouTube from other people, in order to give you a sense of what I was seeing. If you get a chance to go see a show at the Sphere, I highly recommend it.

In a league where passing is emphasized and in which the rules are set up to encourage its success... The most important thing to do is get a quarterback. The next most important thing to do is protect him so he stays upright and healthy. The third most important thing to do is to get him some good players to throw the ball to. The Bills have indisputably achieved goal #1. They seem quite likely to have achieved goal #2. I am uncertain that they have fully achieved goal #3, but I fear they may not have. Others are optimistic that they have done so. We can argue all day about TEs vs WRs, having one or two elite options vs having a grab bag of different skillsets, etc, but at the end of the day, the proof will be in the pudding. There will once again come a moment in the playoffs where the Bills need offensive players OTHER than Josh Allen to step up. Will anyone be ready to answer the call? Tight end, running back, receiver, I personally don't really care. I just want 2024 not to be "The Solo Josh Allen Show: Remix". I'm sick of that show. Time will tell if Beane has gone about the building of the offense correctly and to sufficient effect. I am less optimistic than others, but we'll all see soon enough. **Edit: And before anyone says it: Yes, it would be REALLY nice if some defensive guys started stepping up, too. All the offensive firepower in the world won't do a thing if our defense can't learn to stop a nosebleed in the playoffs.**

Bunch of scofflaw scumbags. Wake me when a Kansas City Chief ISN'T in the news for abusing someone and/or breaking the law.

Nico Collins is, in my mind, sort of the best case scenario for what Keon Coleman could become. He's 6'4" 215 lbs and offers uncommonly good RAC for a guy his size. Sound familiar? Admittedly, Collins is faster with a 4.45 to Coleman's 4.61. Then again, Coleman is probably a bit better above-the-rim than Collins. Collins got off to a modest start in the NFL with 446 and 481 yard outputs in his first two seasons while also struggling with injuries. Last season he had a true breakout with 1297 yards and 8 TDs in 15 games. I don't know if Coleman's first couple seasons will be as modest as Collins' were, but I think it's reasonable to hope and expect that he can reach (or exceed) the production that Collins just posted in year three.

Obviously most of the world today knew Bill Walton as a great broadcaster and an all-time NBA great. I knew him more from Deadhead land. He was a close friend of the band, and claims to have seen over 1,000 Grateful Dead and Dead related shows in his lifetime. From when he was a still-active bearded redhead NBA player in the 70s until the modern day, if you were at a Dead show (particularly on the west coast), you could look out into the crowd on the floor and usually see all 6'11" of him towering over everyone, smiling and singing along, his arms outstretched in his massive condor wingspan. Imagine being behind THAT guy at a concert? Sheesh. Various words of love have been sent Bill's way by members of the Dead community the past few days. John Mayer, who plays with Dead and Co nowadays, said Bill's special talent was to reorient you so that you had the same relentless positive and optimistic outlook on life that he did. So that you always saw the light. Mayer said "I think it's pretty good advice that when times get tough, everything will be okay if you just pretend to be Bill Walton". RIP Bill. Thanks for bringing so much light and joy to so many for so long.

The amount of those yellow puffer jackets we're about to see in the stands come winter time this season is gonna be hilarious.

I already gave answers. I'm sorry you didn't like them. Let me try again. Christian Kirk posted an 1100 yard season and then was on pace for a 1200 yard season last year before getting injured. No current Bills receiver has EVER even eclipsed 900 receiving yards, let alone 1,000. Curtis Samuel's career best receiving yardage total was 15 yards better than Gabe's, but Gabe scored more TDs that year. Brian Thomas was ranked higher on every draft board everywhere than Keon Coleman. Had he been on the board when the Bills picked, they would have taken him over Keon Coleman. While we love Kincaid's potential, he has yet to post a 900 yard season, which Evan Engram just did. As for the Titans: DeAndre Hopkins has 12,000 career receiving yards and 78 TDs. Even last year, at age 31, he still had -- yep, you guessed it -- over 1,000 yards, which -- can you guess what I'm gonna say next? -- is more than any current Bills receiver has ever had. Calvin Ridley has 1,000 more receiving yards and 14 more receiving TDs than Curtis Samuel in two LESS seasons than Samuel. Tyler Boyd has played just one more season than Curtis Samuel, but has 2600 more yards and 9 more TDs. So yes. I think both the Jaguars and Titans -- based primarily on career production vs "potential" -- have better weapons than the Bills. Objectively speaking, the stats back me up. In some cases, HUGELY so. I'd be willing to be that if you were to poll most unbiased NFL fans, they'd agree. It's perfectly fine that you disagree with me, and perfectly fine that you find my opinions abysmal. I'll survive. Have a nice Memorial Day.

I'll miss you. Best of luck in future endeavors.

Yeah it seems as though Orlovsky's comment is based on a decent amount of projection. IF Coleman hits and IF Knox returns to his '21-'22 form and IF Shakir elevates his game and IF Kincaid takes a sophomore leap...then the Bills could reasonably be a top five group in the AFC. If we're going solely by proven NFL production, it's pretty hard to argue top five with a straight face.

I agree, and have mentioned a few times this offseason that I'd be fine with the "quantity approach", most effectively deployed by the Green Bay Packers last season. Until the addition of MVS and Claypool (and the realistic seeming possibility that the latter might actually have his head screwed on straight), I didn't feel that the Bills had accomplished the "quantity" goal very effectively, either. I feel better about it now. To me, though, having a deeper stable of decent to good players is not necessarily superior to having a shallower stable of very good to elite players, it's simply a different approach. Nor does it mean that one can't attempt to rank teams' respective offensive skill player stables without it meaning that one has some kind of vendetta against one's favorite team simply for not ranking them #1.

My responses in bold. It's not as if I said the Bills skill players are dog poop or anything. I said I'd rank them about sixth in the AFC, and listed who I'd rank ahead of them. YMMV.

For what it's worth (probably not much): My personal opinion is that the Bills would be JUST on the outside looking in of the "top five in the AFC" discussion. In no particular order, I'd list the Texans, Chiefs, Dolphins, Bengals, Titans, and arguably the Jaguars as having better weapons than the Bills. So I'd probably have the Bills sixth or seventh. A big jump from Kincaid and Shakir could change that, but that's where I'd have it now.

Absolutely. I'm higher on Davis than many might find reasonable for a 4th round running back. He seems to have a three-down skillset, a killer's mentality, and the experience level and age to hit the ground running right away. I don't think "oh, he may be good in a year or two". I think he's ready to be good NOW, and I think he's gonna challenge Cook for snaps more and more as the year goes on. I said before that it won't surprise me if he ultimately becomes a co-starter with Cook or winds up with the lion's share of the snaps by year's end.

More Bills positivity this morning:

I figured I'd give this its own thread, because this board could use a little hit of positivity going into the weekend. I've been as loud a critic of the Bills' offensive moves as anyone this offseason, so allow me to share a contrary opinion:

Good. Long overdue. Between the absolutely ridiculous surcharges and service fees, the "dynamic pricing" they've instituted, and the fact that they themselves are now ALSO scalpers -- not to MENTION the fact that they are the very definition of a monopoly... It is way, way past time for Ticketmaster/Live Nation to be reined in. No one who has tried to buy tickets to a concert of any renown through them in the past decade could reasonably reach any other conclusion. And yes, we all would have saved a lot of time and effort if we had listened to Pearl Jam on this issue 30 years ago.

Aside from all the little things he'll do ON the field throughout the season (special teams contributions, blocking, the rare big catch in a big moment that he'll pitch in), I think Hollins will make an even bigger impact OFF the field. The truth of the matter is that in the NFL, it's really beneficial to your team to have leaders in the locker room, to have "glue guys". Beane said that even this early into his tenure, you can just tell that Hollins is a glue guy. Setting the tone with his work ethic, his vocal leadership, his selflessness, etc. You need guys like that. So much leadership walked out the door with Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and Mitch Morse. And we can all say what we want about Diggs, and certainly he was a mixed bag, but he WAS a leader in the Bills locker room during his time here. He was constantly going up and down the sideline, getting guys hyped. By my count, as far as leadership and great locker room guys go, the Bills have brought in the following: Mack Hollins DeWayne Carter Sed Van Pran Ray Davis Hollins, obviously, is the only vet. It seems like there's a void of leadership on offense (aside from Josh Allen), so he has the chance to step up and fill a big role there. Beyond him, Carter and Van Pran were both leaders and captains in college, and I'd bet they'll be setting the tone on their respective lines in no time. Davis just seems like a grown man. Not like a rookie or a youngster, but like someone who's ready to go be a killer NOW. And really, beyond all of it, I expect Josh Allen to become THE leader on this team, starting this year. He always has been, to SOME degree, but I think he deferred to Stef in a big way and let him be the loudest alpha in the room. Now that Stef's gone, it's 100% Josh's show.

I've seen a lot of outlets -- including Bills beat reporters -- list Curtis Samuel as more of a slot player, but my impression has been that he's equal parts Y and Z. That usage percentage under Brady would seem to confirm my suspicion. I don't think the Bills signed him thinking "he'll be our slot guy". I think they really like Shakir in that role. That said, while Shakir is primarily a Y, he's shown that he can play Z at times as well. I think we'll see a lot of interchangeability between Samuel and Shakir depending on matchups and personnel groupings. Going back to Claypool, though...If, in fact, he has never played much in the slot, it makes me wonder how the Bills intend to use him. With the two guys I just mentioned getting most of the snaps at Y and Z, and them clearly liking Coleman at X, where does that leave Claypool? Is he more of a WR4/5 that backs up all three positions? I'm intrigued by the IDEA of Claypool, I'm just not sure how/where he fits in the WR room, particularly after the addition of MVS.

Nope. Looks like you're reading it correctly, and I'm just flat out wrong in my recollection of how he was used in PIttsburgh. More importantly, thank you for that link! What a tremendous database of information that is. I've been looking for something like that for a while, but was not familiar with that site. I'm gonna get great use out of that. Thanks.

Given that they help set protections, snap the ball to the quarterback, AND help keep a clean pocket, I'd say "wrongly".

In an absolutely shocking turn of events, it appears that an American law enforcement officer wildly embellished his incident report in order to justify his inappropriate and extra-judicial behavior.

I hope the Bills give Sed Van Pran some early starter looks in camp, the way they did with O'Cyrus Torrence. I said this in another thread here recently, but the best thing that could happen to the OL this season would be for SVP to take the starting center role and never look back. It would allow the least upheaval/turnover to the OL, as it would mean McGovern could stay at LG, Edwards could stay as valuable depth, and only the center position would be different than last year. As a side note, I'll say it's funny to me that a player "only being a fit at center" is a thing that dings guys enough that they fall significantly in the draft these days. I get wanting positional versatility, but center is an important position, and if a guy can be a ten year starter there -- even if he can't play a single down at guard in his career -- then it's a great pick and worth more than a 5th round draft choice. I really don't understand how this guy fell as far as he did on draft day. I know he has shorter-than-desired arms for the position and that he's not considered a good candidate to be a guard in the pros, but...is that it? How does a three-year SEC starter, two time captain, two time national champion center with pro traits fall to the 5th round? There must be some other weaknesses to his game that us laymen are not aware of. Here's hoping that this dude proves to be a steal and softens the blow of losing Mitch Morse.

The major one I want to see changed -- which has already been mentioned to some degree in this thread -- is defensive pass interference. It should result in a either a 15 yard penalty, or a spot foul if the penalty occurred less than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage, and an automatic 1st down. The idea that there should exist any possibility for, say, a 43 yard penalty is ridiculous. The fact that it has become an actual STRATEGY to heave an underthrown 50/50 ball and instruct the WR to run back toward the LOS through the defender, who has no realistic possibility of avoiding the WR, is ridiculous. Get this nonsense out of the game. 15 yards max, automatic 1st down. Simple. If they're REALLY concerned that defenders are just going to purposely tackle WRs to prevent long ball completions, then have there be an "incidental" PI that results in 15 yards (this would cover most instances of it) and an "intentional/blatant" PI that results in a full spot foul, just like it does now. This is a less-than-ideal option because it leaves too much room for referee judgement to decide the level of foul. But if that's the only counter-argument people have -- "The defender will just tackle the WR" -- then do it this way. It would still be better than what we have now.