Logic

As we get closer and closer to the draft, there seems to be less and less to talk about. We've analyzed, over-analyzed, and re-analyzed every prospect to death at this point. As such, one pre-draft discussion I always enjoy having: What are some of your bold draft predictions? Here are a few to get the ball rolling: - Andre Dillard will be the first offensive tackle drafted - Greedy Williams will NOT be the first cornerback drafted - Parris Campbell will be one of the first 3 receivers off the board - Drew Lock will be drafted before Dwayne Haskins - Neither the Oakland Raiders nor the New York Giants will use one of their 1st round picks on a quarterback

I don't believe this to be true. The best comparison for Jonah Williams, in my mind, is Zack Martin. Both were quality college tackles who were deemed not to have the size to stay at tackle in the NFL. Here are scouting reports for each: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/zack-martin?id=2543480 https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jonah-williams?id=32195749-4c13-2676-fb3e-2b3d97cbfc66 Martin was projected as an early to mid 1st rounder and, lo and behold, he was drafted 16th. He has made 5 Pro Bowls. Williams likely will ALSO be drafted in the teens. He, similarly to Martin DOES have the capacity to be a perennial Pro Bowl guard. If the word you have a problem with is "floor", then fine. Technically, any drafted player's floor is "total bust, out of the league". My PREDICTION (which I admit is as likely to be wrong as any other fan's prediction) is that his floor is Pro Bowl guard. It's not as if I pulled that out of my ass. Read just about anyone's scouting report on the guy. No one really seems to believe in him as a tackle, but just about everyone seems to believe he's OG1 in this draft and has the potential to be excellent inside.

The thing that makes me laugh about draft season is that none of us know a damn thing. We all have opinions based on maybe having watched a few college games, maybe a few Youtube highlights, maybe reading a writeup about his measurables. WE'RE ALL JUST GUESSING! So when one person laughs off another's draft prognostication (i.e. mildly educated guess) because it doesn't match THEIR mildly educated guess, it makes me laugh. We're all just guessing. None of us know. If we knew, we wouldn't just be chatting on a message board, we'd be collecting a paycheck from an NFL team. Williams' floor could be "out of the league in three years" or it could be "Pro Bowl guard". None of us know.

Really? To me it seems like there will be lots of mans to pick from.

I agree that Ziggy may not happen. I keep hearing that Gerald McCoy of the Bucs is available for trade, but no one is biting on whatever the Bucs are asking. I can't help but wonder what they want in exchange. McCoy is still a darn good player, and adding him to the roster would REALLY allow Beane some draft flexibility.

You're right. I wonder if there are health, dedication, or effort questions that we're not privy to. I mean...he's getting paid PEANUTS for an above average starting guard. I just don't get it.

We may all have guys that we prefer, but I don't see how anyone could be mad at drafting arguably the best tackle in all of college football. His ceiling is "outstanding offensive tackle" and his floor is "Pro Bowl level guard". We could do a lot worse.

I am sometimes just bowled over by the fact that certain guys get no interest on the open market. This is one of those times. What the HELL am I missing about Spain's tape from the last few years? $1.75 million? REALLY?! I just don't get it.

Pre-draft: Poor base and footwork Scattershot accuracy But boy, what an arm Pre-injury: He is who we thought Looks like another Bills bust They picked the wrong Josh Post-injury: Wait just a minute Where was THIS Allen before?! We might have something Unbelievable He just made Kiko his B I T C H Wow, what an athlete Now: Sky-high potential Can't wait to watch him improve Is it week 1 yet?

Same for me. The 3 round draft holds more interest for me than a 1-rounder with trades. Also available to help, if needed.

I mean... Clearly the schedule release matters to people because it allows them to buy game tickets and airplane tickets and make hotel reservations, which they couldn't do until game dates are known. It's quite logical to be excited about an event which allows you to plan your participation in enjoyable activities.

I mean...I sincerely doubt that a rookie guard or safety would be the difference in winning a Lombardi or not, but ok.

Fair enough. I factored that in, for sure. A large part of it for me was the absurd value of a guy like Lock falling all the way to 28th. I had every intention of filling an immediate need, but I couldn't get over the value of a guy like Lock dropping to 28. While the window is definitely wide open for the Chargers right now, the fact remains that they're a young team, they're in a new market where they're already having trouble attracting fans, and they cannot afford a prolonged period of QB purgatory after Rivers retires. And how much longer is Rivers really going to play? The commutes from San Diego to LA are going to wear on him. Plus he has around 57 children that he needs to care for. In the end, I had to weigh the short term help of a safety or guard against the long term help of a potential franchise QB and successor to Philip Rivers. Long term future won out. I have faith that the guys I already have in the building will get me back into the playoffs this year. I can find a safety and guard in rounds 2 and 3. Furthermore, I think the Chargers are weighing this in real life, as well, given that they've now had private workouts/interviews with both Drew Lock and Daniel Jones, both of whom are unlikely to be there when the Chargers pick in the 2nd round. I understand your perspective, though, and wrestled with it myself.

Absolutely. The 5th year option is HUGE for quarterbacks, especially quarterbacks that you already know won't be playing for another season or two. And ultimately, when you believe in a QB, and one with high 1st round value drops unexpectedly all the way to 28, you take him without a second thought. Can't trade around and risk losing out on him.

I was very torn about this pick for the Los Angeles Chargers. I came in wanting an offensive tackle or interior defensive lineman. With Dillard, Taylor, and Risner all off the board at OT and Oliver, Williams, Simmons, and Wilkins all off the board at DT, things got a bit more complicated. I liked Risner, in particular, figuring that if he didn't work at offensive tackle, he'd become a great interior player for us. Alas, he was picked just one pick before my Chargers were on the clock. I looked at linebacker, but I didn't like the value of the remaining players at that position. I looked at cornerback, but again the value wasn't there. I'm happy for now with Casey Hayward and Desmond King at corner. I'm going to have to address my defensive interior at some point, and I'd like a safety. Tre Boston is still on the market, though, and I plan to bring him back. The defensive line class is deep and I'm confident that I can address that need in round 2 or 3. So looking at the fact that the players at my top two needs (OT and IDL) didn't present good value, and considering I JUST spent a premium pick on Derwin James for my secondary last year, I turned my attention to something I hadn't expected: The fall of quarterbacks Daniel Jones and Drew Lock. For those that don't think these are reasonable considerations for LA: The Chargers have spent top 30 visits on Daniel Jones and Will Grier already, and Drew Lock is meeting with them in Los Angeles TODAY. I've got to replace 38-year-old Philip Rivers at some point, and with as good as my team is likely to be for the next few years, I won't be picking high enough for any blue chip QB prospects. As such, I look at the tremendous value at this point of these quarterbacks, and I have one of them higher on my board than I have any remaining players at "primary need" positions. Given that the draft is about setting my team up for long term success, and given that we've got to find a way to get fans engaged and make sure we can build a fan base here in Los Angeles, I have made my decision. With the 28th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Chargers select QB Drew Lock, Mizzou. Lock, like Josh Allen before him, has some work to do on both his drop-back and throwing mechanics. He also has tremendous, game-breaking upside. By drafting him now, I can sit him behind Philip Rivers for 1-2 seasons and allow him to learn from the best. I considered Daniel Jones, as he is more of a ready-made fit for Anthony Lynn's west coast offense. But ultimately, I bet on upside here, and that Lock's time on the bench learning from Rivers will equate to long term success for my otherwise young team, and that the move to ensure quarterback stability for years to come will equate to increased fan engagement in my new market. @Mr Wild and his Kansas City Chiefs are now on the clock.

I second this. This mock has been better thus far than many that I see done by "professionals".

I hear ya. On the other hand, he's a punter. It's not unreasonable to think that he'll be good for a decade. A decade of quality punting is worth a 7th, in my opinion.

Agreed. I, however, find joy in reading all the various wild speculations and rumors and "according to sources" and sussing out for myself what seems viable and what doesn't. It's probably totally fruitless, but it sure is fun in an otherwise boring offseason!

Ben Albright said the Bills wanted Josh Allen from day 1. He was adamant about it all offseason, even though Bills fans freaked out on him. Some journalists DO know things sometimes. To say that none of them know anything is not correct.

Bills trade down to 15 and pick up a 2nd round pick. Bills draft TJ Hockenson at 15, use their two 2nds to trade back into late 1st for a sliding Christian Wilkins. In the 3rd, they select WR Riley Ridley.

With regard to Interior D-linemen for the Iggles, DraftNetwork and some other resources have Tillery and Omenihu ranked ahead of Lawrence. Just thought it was worth mentioning. Not sure if Iggles are looking for more of a space eater or penetrator. I mean I know Cox gets good penetration. That's what Cox is for. But, ya know... If Virgil is busy and insists that we pick in his stead, I say we roll with Lawrence and keep this thing moving. Happy to wait, of course, if that's preferred.

Isn't Lawrence more of a space eater than a penetrator? Football sounds so sexual sometimes...

@Ice bowl 67 what did you think of the Ty Dunne article about McCarthy/Rodgers? Bombshell stuff!

I see a ton of mocks that have the Eagles taking a safety. With the Eagles playing a Wide 9 and with Christian Wilkins off the board, I don't think the value is there for DT. I say they either go Ferrell at Edge or Adderley at Safety.