oldmanfan

There’s no reason to not have trick or treating

This is the most ridiculous thing you’ve posted yet. And that’s saying something. Equally ridiculous.

You think people care, but sadly to me attitudes many times say the opposite.

Morbidity associated with Covid should be tracked and reported to the same extent as mortality.

The vaccines went through clinical trials like other medications, but because of the severity of the pandemic they dovetailed with the EUA. There's also the lie about them not going through animal testing when in fact they did. There have now been billions of vaccine doses given and the benefits of the vaccines far outweigh any risks. That is the bottom line. Kids have a much greater chance of dying from Covid than any side effect associated with the vaccine. Fact. They have a very small overall chance of dying from Covid, true. But when that kid is lying in the ICU trying to breathe, do you think they and their parents will then wish he or she had gotten vaccinated? You keep using the stuff about unknown side effects, and ignore the science of both previous vaccines as well as the Covid data. The history of side effects with vaccines show they are very rare, and are found within weeks of immunization. In fact, that the very slight risks with myocarditis and with the blood clots with the J&J vaccine show that, and show that the surveillance for side effects has been very robust and successful with the Covid vaccines. The bottom line is that the risk of significant side effects with the vaccines are extraordinarily small. Again fact. You say I can't guarantee anything. True. I can't guarantee that someone gets the vaccine, walks out of the clinic and gets run over by a bus for example. If you are asking for 100% guarantees about the vaccines, you are asking for the impossible. No drug or vaccine ever invented in the history of mankind has ever come with a 100% guarantee of success with absolutely no side effects. If you honestly believe that should be required, I suggest you go home. throw out every over the counter and prescription medicine you might have in your possession and live in a bubble. One of our colleagues on this thread hit the nail on the head. Getting young people to get vaccinated will be a challenge because young people feel invincible. And the other reason as I indicated in a earlier post is that this pandemic has laid bare the fact that our society is no longer a society, and no one cares about their fellow man anymore. The individual who could go out and get infected and pass it along to a parent or grandparent or neighbor doesn't care.

Your schooling did not apparently include math. It is known that the Covid vaccines, especially the mRNA types, have an increased risk of myocarditis associated with them. The Israeli data as well as the data in the report you cite support that. Now what is the actual risk in terms of percentage of cases and mortality? In the article you cite the risk is 4 per million or about 0.14% of all adverse event reported to the VAERS system. In kids, the article you cite suggest that there have been just south of 3.5 million vaccinations, and 559 myocarditis cases, of which there have been 6 deaths. Which are tragic to be sure. But if ones then does the math, it turns out that the mortality rate from myocarditis secondary to vaccination is about 4-7 deaths per million individuals, or around 0.0005%. The mortiality rate of Covid in younger individuals as I pointed out above is about 0.005% from Covid itself, and does not account for longer term morbidity associated with the virus. As I have said numerous times here, medicine is about benefit vs. risk. The numbers here suggest that there is a benefit to the vaccine, in that you have a 10 fold higher chance of dying from Covid than myocarditis in the younger age group. Below is the CDC review and recommendations: To assess the benefit-risk balance of mRNA vaccines in adolescents and young adults, ACIP reviewed an individual-level assessment that compared the benefits (i.e., COVID-19 infections and severe disease prevented) to the risks (number of cases of myocarditis) of vaccination, using methods similar to those described previously.††† Specifically, the benefits per million second doses administered (i.e., the benefits of being fully vaccinated in accordance with the FDA EUA) were assessed, including 1) COVID-19 cases prevented based on rates the week of May 29, 2021§§§; 2) COVID-19 hospitalizations prevented based on rates the week of May 22, 2021¶¶¶; and 3) COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths prevented based on the proportion of hospitalized patients who were admitted to the ICU or died.**** The risks were assessed as the number of myocarditis patients reported to VAERS that occurred within 7 days of receipt of a second dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine per million second doses administered through the week of June 11, 2021.†††† The benefit-risk assessment was stratified by age group and sex. The analysis assumed 95% vaccine effectiveness§§§§ of 2 doses of a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in preventing COVID-19 cases and hospitalization and assessed outcomes for a 120-day period. The 120-day period was selected because 1) no alternative vaccine options currently exist for persons aged <18 years or are expected to be available during this period, and 2) inputs regarding community transmission have high uncertainty beyond this period, particularly in the context of circulating variants.¶¶¶¶ The benefits (prevention of COVID-19 disease and associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths) outweighed the risks (expected myocarditis cases after vaccination) in all populations for which vaccination has been recommended. However, the balance of benefits and risks varied by age and sex because cases of myocarditis were primarily identified among males aged <30 years, and the risks of poor outcomes related to COVID-19 increase with age. Per million second doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine administered to males aged 12–29 years, 11,000 COVID-19 cases, 560 hospitalizations, 138 ICU admissions, and six deaths due to COVID-19 could be prevented, compared with 39–47 expected myocarditis cases after COVID-19 vaccination (Table 2). Among males aged ≥30 years, 15,300 COVID-19 cases, 4,598 hospitalizations, 1,242 ICU admissions, and 700 deaths could be prevented, compared with three to four expected myocarditis cases after COVID-19 vaccination. This analysis did not include the potential benefit of preventing post-COVID-19 conditions, such as prolonged symptoms and MIS-C (6,7).

Good points all, especially the examples at the end. Clearly the data in younger individuals is much more comforting inbb by that they are at much less risk of death. My larger concern in younger groups who contract the disease and the resulting potential morbidity. There was just a study this week suggesting Covid infection might link to increased risk of diabetes. We don’t know long term what will happen. Of course some say the same about the vaccine, but given the nature of the vaccine and historical data on side effects it just is not an issue. Side effects from vaccines are rare, and show up within weeks. And the myocarditis and blood clot issues with the J & J are examples where they were found quickly. It comes down to benefit vs. risk and the data are clear. But convincing the younger group is hard as you indicate.

It is not my field of research but I have been reading the relevant papers since the pandemic started. I know the answer probably but I’ll ask anyway: are you a scientist?

Yes. Forty years in research. And that is how science works. You make observations, you do your research, you publish. Others do their research, publish their findings that may differ from yours in some ways. Your data and conclusions are critiqued as are others. And consensus develops. it is scary for the future of our country how many people like you have no clue what science is and how it works. And even worse, don’t care to know.

No, in other words how science works.

You realize the risks of things like blood clots from the vaccine are way less than morbidity and mortality from Covid? The only other time in history I can think of where we had either a national crisis or war or something like that, and the country didn’t pull together, was Vietnam. And the Civil War, but that was obviously a unique case.

You honestly believe a cold is comparable to a major issue from Covid. You honestly think that. There’s really nothing to be said about that. Then take the risk and if you get it have the decency to die in your own bed and not waste resources that could be used to save someone else.

You’re right. In my healthcare system alone I probably know a thousand or more doctors, nurses, allied health care professionals that all recognize that vaccination is the responsible thing to do for themselves and their patients. And thus know you’re crazy.

I can assure you the scientific consensus supports vaccination

Well this is the issue, isn’t it? Is it about the individual or about the society? A global pandemic hits and people ask what’s in it for me, rather than how can I help my neighbor. Your last paragraph speaks volumes. The mortality rate among vaccinated is at least 10 fold lower than unvaccinated, hospitalization rates are much higher with the unvaccinated, yet you talk about death and suffering in vaccinated. The Modena thing, I can’t find any numbers on with respect to actual risk of myocarditis, only that it’s very rare, and if it’s like the Israeli data it’s maybe 7 cases in a million and most all resolve. And Sweden didn’t tell young people not to get vaccinated but to choose a different vaccine. But somehow that’s construed as worse that getting Covid when the data says otherwise. People say the CDC should get better spokespeople and so on. But it won’t matter because we now live in a society that is no longer a society, where the guy next you doesn’t give a damn about you, and where actual scientific knowledge is thrown on the alter of social media-hyped insanity. And again, thanks for being an organ donor.

I know hundreds personally that think they’ and you are crazy and since 90% or more of health care workers are vaccinated across the country they apparently agree.

Your last sentence is a flat out lie. The total population of individuals 15-30 in the US is about 80 million, and according to the CDC there have been 4000 deaths from Covid in that age group. So that’s about 0.005 %. Data is known for the only significant complication associated with the vaccine that appears to affect the younger population, myocarditis. The incidence of that post-vaccination was 0.00017 percent and of those a handful of them resulted in death with most resolving spontaneously. So there is at least a 50 fold greater risk of dying from Covid in that age group vs. the one known complication in that age group. There are mild side effects such as muscle soreness and stuff, but if you’re going to include those in your chances of a son having issues above what Covid would cause then you’re a hopeless case. Plus I’m only talking about mortality in that age group and not morbidities, for which we’re only scratching the surface of currently.

They’ve done so because mild infections that don’t lead to hospitalization aren’t what kills people. We all know or should know the delta variant is more infectious, but I agree they need to explain these things much better. I would have presented all data on infections through deaths from the beginning to today.

No. It is about saving lives, always has been, always will be.

Then go get Covid and die if you’re willing to give your life. And when you’re gasping for breath and declare like many have when in their death bed that you should have gotten the vaccine, it will be too late. I would be 99% sure this anesthesiologist and the other guy got their childhood vaccines, got their yearly flu vaccines as that is required by many health care organizations. So enough about your freedom.

I agree research is important, so long as you have to ability to discern the research, understand what is statistically relevant and such. Sounds like you do; a lot of folks don't.

And the risks from the vaccine are way lower. That is the point. And you're ignoring the fact that to fight a global pandemic the more people of all ages vaccinated the lower the number of hosts for the virus to replicate.

Medicine is about benefit vs. risk. The math indicates that even ion younger people the risk of getting Covid far outweighs any risk with the vaccine. See my comment about benefit and risk; the risk of getting Covid are still much higher in the younger population than the risk associated with the vaccine.

Second opinions are always valuable. We encourage our patients to do so. But patients also will blindly come to us with stuff thy see on an an Internet website, insisting that we do it for them, when in reality it has nothing to do with their particular situation and could in fact do more harm than good. I work in reproductive medicine, been directing infertility labs for 40 years, have to regularly do continuing education to keep my board certification as does the physician (with 30 years experience) that I work with. Yet patients some times trust what someone says on Facebook more than what we tell them. We are seeing the same stuff with the Covid pandemic. You have epidemiologists and virologists and public health officials with a lifetime of training and expertise, yet folks would rather dismiss their expertise in favor of some conspiracy fueled nonsense on Facebook. I am dealing with this now with a group on Facebook insisting that pregnant women should not get vaccinated because it will kill their baby and such, when the recommendations from every leading women's health organization are that women get vaccinated in pregnancy, because Covid infections in pregnancy are more dangerous to the mother and the baby, leads to premature labor and a host of other issues.

Sweden and a couple other Nordic countries have temporarily suspended use of the Moderna vaccine in the under 30 group due to a slight risk (several per million) in myocarditis in that population. What you fail to note is they are recommending the Pfizer vaccine for that group. As for the Swedish health minister, he chose to buck most of the world's public health individuals and go a different route on requiring masks, quarantines, and such when the pandemic started. But the infection and mortality rate in Sweden was much higher than neighboring countries, which then caused Sweden to tighten their policies. You can look it up, it's all out there. Or you can choose to cherrypick like you've done with the vaccine recommendation in the under 30 group and ignore the whoel story. Your choice. How do you explain the deaths of those without unhealthy behaviors. They're out there, you know.