HappyDays
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I'll skip over the Minnesota game - and Watkins's great catch - and go right to Detroit because it makes my point for me.Kyle could pull games out of the fire late too like the Minnesota and Detroit games.
With :04 on the clock in Detroit, we were all tied up at 14 points. Dan Carpenter managed to kick a 58 game-winning field goal.
Compare to the Miami game last year. All tied up at 31. It's OT and Carpenter has a 48 yarder... which he misses.
Let's not forget Orton had a pick-six in that game so it's his fault that it was even a tie game, our defense was playing out of its mind.
It's ludicrous to say "well at least Orton pulled out the win." This is what advanced stats and analytics are for. You can frame the game as "Orton pulled out a nail biter at the end" if you only look at the score chart but looking at the stats shows the truth.
Tyrod wildly outplayed Orton if you're comparing those two games. Blaming him for the Miami loss is like blaming Brees for the Saints' awful record the past few years.
And me personally I want a QB who plays at his best in the 1st quarter, not the 4th. I want to pull away and put the other team in a bad situation where it has to play in our favor. Not get to a below-50% chance at the end of the game because the offense hasn't been good enough the rest of the time. Nailbiters like that are fun to watch but they aren't consistent measures of success. More likely than not a team winning a lot of close games at the end is going to regress the following year. That's about the last thing I care about in my QB. Just get good production throughout the whole game. Most QBs don't fluctuate all that much quarter to quarter when you look at their averages. It's a standard that we've invented for Tyrod.
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K Ortons stats in the 12 games he played with Watkins and Woods are 64.2% comp. 6.75 YPA 18 TDs 10 int., while not as good yet are not that far off and in only 12 games.
A YPA of 8.25 would put you at 2nd in the league in 2016. A YPA of 6.75 would put you at 25th in the league in 2016.
Not that far off though!
What does "less games" have to do with it? YPA is comparative no matter how many games you've played. If you want to include the other stats like passer rating that would be cool too.
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This whole healthcare thing is much more serious than I knew. The republicans want to throw 700 Billion people off their plans.
https://pjmedia.com/video/maxine-waters-says-700-billion-people-are-about-to-lose-their-healthcare/
Haha watch the video. This is embarrassing for you. Eating propaganda right up.
She said 700 billion as in DOLLARS. Not people.
Can you people field one attack against Democrats that isn't based in straight up propaganda? It really isn't that hard. I don't like Maxine Walters but why stop to the level of lying about what she said? It weakens your own position.
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Except for missing a wide open Goowdin in the EZ for the win on the play before the Carp miss and 2 plays before the 10 men on the field 50 yard Ajaya run.
That's gotta end if he's gonna be THE MAN. He's GOTTA hit in those situations.
There are 2 QBs in the entire NFL I would feel 50/50 about a last drive, down by a score type of game - Brady and Rodgers. Everyone else is below 50%, not just in my opinion but statistically. So why should Tyrod have to meet a standard that no one else does?
If that's your expectation for a QB worth keeping around, then keep dreaming. Those QBs aren't coming out anymore.
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not racist at all there
No, he means Scaramuccia literally shares a name with a clown character from classic Italian comedy plays:
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I disagree.
If we are specifically talking about passing the ball, which I think we are in the last page, Tyrod's passer QBR passing is 22nd last year and 18th the year before. He's top 10 in total QBR which includes running. Derek Carr was 16th in total QBR simply because he doesn't scramble/run....he's 9th in pass. Do you think Tyrod was overall a better QB than Derek Carr last year?
And yes, it still can be "cheated" if you make too many safe throws which is what Anthony Lynn stated last year...
If there is a guy wide open on a post route that could go for 20+ but Taylor doesn't see him and runs for 8 yards....that's not looked at as a negative on QBR. Yes 8 yards is good but a 20+ is much better. QBR doesn't factor that in.
Passing yards isn't the end all be all but it does measure at least how much you're actually moving the ball through the air. We don't move it very well or haven't in the last 2 years.
I don't look at QBR, and I don't care about it. I'm just talking about passer rating and passing DVOA (both of which do not include scrambles). I wouldn't look up just "passing QBR," that's not a well regarded stat at all.
If you look at passer ratings over the last 10 years it is remarkably consistent how well it matches up with performance. Same goes for DVOA. If you think those stats can be cheated over a 29 game sample size we'll agree to disagree on that.
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You apparently don't understand how passer rating is calculated. A blind QB could go 0/100 and his passer rating still wouldn't be 0.0.
And Cian Fahey recently tried to make the case that Kaepernick is a better QB than Flacco, so you have to take him with a grain of salt.
Okay I messed that one up, that's what I get for not checking my work. My point still stands, passer rating (and the other primary stats) will clearly be negatively affected by a QB that doesn't see his open receivers, or hesitates the ball. I mean this is just common sense to me, I don't understand what there is to prove.
As for Fahey - did you actually read his article? I'm not even gonna post it here because that will start a whole unrelated debate, but he made a good case. Did you watch every pass Flacco and Kaepernick made over the past 2 seasons because he did.
My point isn't about Fahey in particular anyways, just that saying "oh well Benoit is an expert analyst" is silly. Benoit recently put out his list of the 400 best players in football right now. He had Aaron Rodgers as #6 overall and here's what he said:
https://www.si.com/nfl/mmqb-400-nfl-top-players
"Rodgers is always one of the toughest players to reconcile. He's quite possibly the most talented passer in the history of football, and yet no coach in his right mind would ever tell a young quarterback to study this guy. Rodgers' footwork is flawed (or nonexistent, however you want to label a thrower who doesn't set his feet), his field vision can be perplexing and, consequently, he often holds the ball too long. And yet, there probably isn't a quarterback defenses fear more."
I mean... really? That's what he sees from Aaron Rodgers? He also ranked Andrew Luck as the 5th best QB - does that sound right to you? Better than Drew Brees? Hmm. How about Eli Manning ranked 8th - ahead of Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton... He even ranked Prescott 17th, behind Wentz who he puts at 16th...
Yeah Benoit has some weird opinions about QBs.
Fahey also said that Vernon Adams was the best QB prospect coming out of the draft 2 years ago.
Yes, everyone has misses but Adams went undrafted and went to mini camp with both the Seahawks and Redskins, didn't make either roster....that's a really, really bad miss.
He's now in the CFL and I believe has looked okay up there.
Was his miss of Vernon Adams any worse than the reality of Goff and Wentz going #1 and #2 overall? Or all the GMs and analysts that missed Prescott? Is it so crazy to think that Vernon Adams IS a better prospect than at least Goff? I mean Goff was really awful last year. I don't immediately call somebody crazy just because they have a wildly different opinion from the common one, because in football the common opinion is wrong more often than not when it comes to QBs.
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Yes you certainly can cheat "passer rating".
The Charlie Batch article is proof of it.
168 yards and two INTS is not the greatest QB performance of all time.
We have been at the bottom of the league two years in a row for a reason....
In a 1-game sample size, sure. Tyrod Taylor had a 100.1 passer rating in the Steelers game last year and I don't think that's a fair representation of how he played. But the more attempts you add in, the less these "cheating" effects will have an impact. You can't cheat passer rating and DVOA on a 15 game sample size, let alone a 29 game sample size.
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Benoit doesn't mean "missing" them with throws. He means not seeing them. "Missing" them in the sense of missing that there is a guy streaking open as Tyrod scrambles out of bounds for 2 yards. Not trying to throw to them and being off target.
I know what he means and those stats should still show that. If a QB is not seeing his receivers get open, and it's a real detriment, of course his stats will be worse! You can't cheat passer rating. If a QB was absolutely perfect at seeing open receivers and throwing them the ball he would have a perfect passer rating. If a QB was literally blind he would have a 0.0 passer rating. Tyrod is somewhere in the middle. You can't take one part of his game out of the stats, they're all connected. Maybe he IS missing open receivers on certain plays which brings his overall rating down. But it's not bringing it down all that much, or else he's making up for it with his low turnover numbers. One way or another his passer rating comes away looking decently above average in 2015 and slightly below average in 2016, and DVOA looks about the same.
Benoit can see whatever he wants. There are analysts like Cain Fahey that have polar opposite opinions while watching the same film. It's useless to debate which analyst is more credible, you can find someone to support whatever opinion of Tyrod you might have.
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"Issue with Tyrod Taylor are the throws he doesnt attempt. Leaves too many open receivers on the field. No stat can show this."
Benoit is wrong. Of course there's a stat that shows this, in fact several. If a QB is really constantly missing open receivers on the field then his passer rating, YPA, DVOA, etc. will be low. This is the NFL, there is not much room for error. You can't miss open receivers as much as people think Tyrod did and end up top 10 in passer rating like he did in 2015. He ended 18th in 2016. Which means he was slightly below average at delivering the ball to his receivers in 2016.
His hesitancy is also a positive in one way - keeping turnovers low has high correlation to making the playoffs, compared to something like passing yards which has lower correlation. Someone can be too hesitant and Tyrod is certainly at least somewhat too hesitant, but it's also possible to be not hesitant enough like Blake Bortles. I would love a perfect middle ground but personally I'll take slightly too hesitant over slightly not-hesitant-enough every time. Many football games are 1-score games so I'd rather my QB's mistake lead to a punt than a turnover.
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@Teeflebees -- thanks; I had not read that nugget from Frazier. Perhaps everyone is reading too much into the first few days of camp.
What's the point of training camp week 1 if not to make sweeping conclusions about the team?
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Ok ive seen enough from Holmes. I know it's just training camp but you don't acquire hands over the course of a couple months, and he had issues dropping catches in Oakland. Please get Boldin in here. Or hope one of the UDFAs works out.
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NEW STUDY DOCUMENTS VOTER FRAUD IN 2016 ELECTION
A new study by the Government Accountability Institute suggests the answer. It shows that thousands of votes in the 2016 election were illegal duplicate votes from people who registered and voted in more than one state.
No it doesn't. The (non-peer reviewed, unpublished) study itself doesn't make that strong a claim. It says they "identified 8,471 potential cases of illegal duplicate voting across 21 states." And they did by finding every case in those states where 2 supposedly different voters have the same "name, birthdate, and first 5 digits of their social security number."
Even if we grant that all 8,471 found cases are real duplicate voters, considering they looked at 75 million total voters I would say this is nothing. Certainly not enough to impose burdensome voter requirements that would disenfranchise up to 11% of potential voters (the percentage of voting-age Americans that do not have photo IDs). The closest result this past election was Michigan which Trump won by about 11,000 votes. That's just 1 state and the total number of possible duplicate votes for 21 states is less than that. Gee I'm thinking when the authors wrote this report they were hoping to find more.
Of course by no means should we grant that every found "duplicate vote" was actually a fraudulent duplicate vote. The study itself mentions that birth dates get a lot of false matches because people born before certain years that are entered into certain databases get accidentally flipped to something like 01/01/00. Matching names, well that's an easy one. John Smith, Tom Collins, George Johnson... imagine how many possible duplicate combinations there are of any number of common first and last names. But what about the first 5 digits of the social security number? Well about 20 million Americans have multiple full social security numbers and more than half of those are due to bad data entry instead of identity fraud:
http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/odds-someone-else-has-your-ssn-one-7-6C10406347
The first 5 digits are the least specific part of the SS number so that's where you'll find the most false positive matches.
So it's impossible to know exactly how many of those 8,000 "duplicate voters" were just false positives. But how many elderly John Smiths in the same geographic region have the same incorrect birthdate in the local registry? The first 3 digits of their SS number would be the same, the next 2 digits are a random group number that gets cycled through.
This study proves nothing. Of course the authors know this or they would try to get it submitted for peer review. If this is really the best a group affiliated with Steve Bannon can do it's pretty sad.
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it's hard to quantify X positive plays outweighing X negative plays and viceversa.
Football Outsiders quantified it.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/quarterbacks-and-pressure-2016
They ran the data on how offenses produced when their QBs were under pressure, and found the Bills offense was 2nd best in the league in those situations. That includes all throws under pressure, sacks, and scrambles. Tyrod's positive plays in these situations do NOT outweigh the negative - our total DVOA is still negative - but they makes up for the negative plays more than any QB who isn't Aaron Rodgers.
And Tyrod faced more pressure than anyone in the league other than Jared Goff, out of 34 qualifying QBs. The best thing the offense can do to improve in 2017 is having Tyrod face less pressure. Part of that will be him getting rid of the ball faster too. But I remember too many plays last year where a DE plowed right through Mills and Tyrod didn't even have a chance.
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Very happy to hear about the run defense. We had three 200 yard rushers last year. That's a big swing in the win/loss column.
These reports are very awesome, thanks.
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fat pig. beat him with a sack of oranges and choke him out.
Well then
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I'd love to know how you came to this conclusion.
In 2012 he averaged 194.9 YPG on 24.6 Attempts per game. His play was accompanied by the #2 DVOA Defense, and the #1 DVOA Rush Offense
In 2013 he averaged 209.8 YPG on 25.4 Attempts per game. His play was accompanied by the #1 DVOA Defense, and the #7 DVOA Rush Offense
In 2014 he averaged 217.2 YPG on 28.3 Attempts per game. His play was accompanied by the #1 DVOA Defense, and the #1 DVOA Rush Offense
In our case:
In 2015 TT averaged 216.8 YPG on 27.1 Attempts per game. His play was accompanied by the #24 DVOA Defense, and the #2 DVOA Rush Offense
In 2016 TT averaged 201.5 YPG on 29.1 Attempts per game. His play was accompanied by the #26 DVOA Defense, and the #1 DVOA Rush Offense
This is what I mean. Tyrod in 2015 was very similar to Russell Wilson's production when he won his Super Bowl and lost his other one. And we've only seen two seasons of Tyrod. Is it so ludicrous to think he could improve his game a little? After just 2 years starting? There isnt really enough history to draw on. People say "well no one's done it, excluding these 3 or 4 all time great QBs..." but it's a small sample size to begin with. You have QBs like Matt Schaub, or RGIII, who play at a Pro Bowl level briefly before regressing to awful. You have QBs like Carson Palmer who played the best years of his career in 2014 and 2015 after years of mediocrity. Peyton Manning had arguably the best years of his career in 2013 and 2014 but won his 2nd Super Bowl after his mechanics fell apart. None of this stuff was predictable or likely based on any historical data. What do we say about QBs like Matt Stafford? Or Sam Bradford? Are their careers already over?
I'm not sure on Tyrod, not even close. I wouldn't understand anyone who says they are sure on him being the franchise QB. There's just so much uncertainty at the position, now more than ever, so I equally don't understand anyone who says they are sure, or even think it's more likely than not, that he's hit his ceiling. There's no data to quantify the likelihood of a QB who sat on the bench for 4 years, then ran an offense run by Rex Ryan and a bunch of rush game experts, improving or not improving in a brand new offense with a different defense and several different players backing him up. The number of variables are astronomical! I have no clue how it's all going to look but I'm sure as hell excited and not really all that interested in what percentage of throws went to X part of the field and how many QBs managed to achieve X at Y points in their career. It's all so mind numbing and it ultimately doesn't matter.
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Well sure, I've always thought having a top 12 QB is a good baseline for a team with serious Super Bowl aspirations (you get the occasional 2015-16 Broncos but that's very rare). I guess where we disagree is I absolutely think Tyrod could play at a top 12 level. I think he did just that in 2015 but the attempts weren't high. 2015 Bills offense + Seattle defense is a Super Bowl contender.Me, I figure it's about 10% of Super Bowl winners who didn't have QBs playing top ten or twelve ball. And you don't want to follow a model that wins that kind of percentage.
And on the flip side how many Super Bowl winners are not top 12 defenses? I would wager about the same, 10%. Actually I found this link immediately after typing that:
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/2zltuy/offensive_and_defensive_ranks_for_superbowl/
From 2000-2014, if you rank offenses and defenses by points scored/points allowed, there were 4 Super Bowl winners with an offense out of the top 12, and 4 Super Bowl winners with a defense out of the top 12. Exactly even. If you include 2015 and 2016 the Broncos would bring it to 5 Super Bowl winners with a worse than top 12 offense.
So in total since 2000 you're technically slightly better off with a top 12 defense than a top 12 offense, if Super Bowl is your only goal.
Does this change your opinion at all?
EDIT: To add more to that analysis - five #1 defenses in points allowed have won a Super Bowl since 2000. Only one #1 offense in points scored has won a Super Bowl in the same time frame.
But it's an offensive league? Man I think everyone might just have it wrong. And if you took out the Patriots... man oh man.
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But Thurman all your argument is getting at is that the Bills would be better with Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers at QB. And of course that's true. When you say "elite passing games win championships" you have to remember there are only like 4 elite passing games in the entire NFL, and they're all led by QBs from the last generation of players. I don't necessarily disagree that that statement is true - although I think it's taken a hit the last few years - but it certainly shouldn't be the only goal for a team looking to win a championship. It is a plain fact that there are multiple ways to build a championship caliber team. Right now the Bills are closer to being an elite rushing and defensive team than they are to getting the next Aaron Rodgers in the prime of his career. So why not try and build with what we have instead of waiting for the stars to align just so?
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I used the byes because that represents the 4 teams that had the best records throughout the regular season. 2 threw the ball well and 2 didn't.
Wouldn't this always be the best way to do it? 16 game regular seasons vs 3-4 games in the playoffs. I'll take the final regular season rankings as a good barometer of what gets you to the playoffs.
But even just looking at recent Super Bowl winners the theory falls apart. Elite defense has made a resurgence. Brady himself is 5-2 in Super Bowls with an average YPA of just 6.7 in those games. But he can still win because he always has good weapons, good defense, and great coaching backing him up. Coaching is easily a more important factor than quarterbacking, or by all rights Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees and Peyton Manning should have more combined Super Bowl wins than Tom Brady.
I mean is it really so impossible for people to think that a change in coaching could make the passing game better, even assuming everything else stays the same? Our offense has been designed by rush game coordinators and RB coaches over the past two seasons. I think that that point isn't mentioned enough when talking about why our rush game was so far ahead of the pass game.
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You know what's funny is if the skinny repeal had passed, states still could have passed their own coverage mandates. Which means red states would have ended up footing the bill for blue state marketplaces. Off of a Republican bill. Hilarious!
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Glad to hear about the fast pace, sounds like a real football training camp. Thanks for the reports.
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Overreaction post: Call Boldin, tell him the offer just went up $1 million.
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✔@SalSports[/font][/color]
4]Sean McDermott certainly has his defense thinking takeaway every play. Hands are constantly slapping/punching at the ball until the very end
This I like to see. It's all about the details and that's McDermott's strength.
The Deep State War Heats Up :ph34r:
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
Update on the Seth Rich nonsense story:
http://www.npr.org/2017/08/01/540783715/lawsuit-alleges-fox-news-and-trump-supporter-created-fake-news-story
Rod Wheeler is now suing Fox News for "putting words in his mouth" and dragging out the Seth Rich story as a distraction from the Russia story.
Hahaha! Really juicy stuff in that article. So the real conspiracy all along was to push out a crap story. Hey who in this thread was saying that at the beginning? Hmm. And looks like the White House was involved.