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HappyDays

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  1. another one bites the dust. they said the same thing about Watkins when he first hurt his foot. "it's just a pain tolerance issue and he can play through it and will be week to week."

    This is where we will find out the value Matthews has that Sammy doesn't. He will be fine and play through the pain, based on everything I've heard about his character that's the type of guy he is.

     

    I'm still surprised we even got Matthews, a 3rd alone for Darby would have probably done it for me.

  2. AGAIN, WHY WAS SAMMY GONE AT THE END OF THE YEAR?

     

    WHERE DID THIS INCREDIBLY INACCURATE ASSUMPTION COME FROM?

     

    Man. Some Bills fans are so incredibly pathetic. Doing ANYTHING to justify their support for the inept organization.

    Scott you know they're not just saving money for no reason. There is some logic behind what they're doing, this is not the Ralph years like you seem to think. Will it work out, who knows, but you're ignoring the logic behind it completely. They don't believe elite receivers are necessary for championships and/or Sammy's attitude bothered them and/or they didn't feel it was realistic to pay what he will want when on the field he hasn't lived up to it. So they got a pick for him because he doesn't fit into their future plans. It makes sense, we just have to see how the draft picks go.

  3. Just to restate what I said in the training canp thread, I was at practice today and Peterman was the best of the 3 QBs. I would go so far as to say it wasn't really close. Not that that really means anything because it's just one practice but it's what I saw. He threaded a few beautiful passes, 3 in particular stand out in my memory and they were all different passes to different parts of the field.

  4. I was at practice today. Peterman to me looked like the best of the 3 QBs. Obviously you can't read too much into one practice but that's how it looked today. He honestly looked really really good, he was throwing balls that Tyrod would not attempt and completing them, and that's coming from someone that likes Tyrod a lot. He's getting better every day and earned the right to play with the 2s. Keep an eye on him. A couple people around me saw the same thing I did.

  5. You also said that he was never paid like an elite receiver despite being the 2nd highest paid receiver.

    Total value means nothing to me, the average salary is what matters. Looking at that list of average salaries he's right where I would put him, which is below all the receivers I pegged as elite. OBJ will of course be there soon. And I actually expect Sammy to be there too, although I don't think his production will match it.

  6. Demaryius Thomas had 105 catches and over 1,300 yards in their Super Bowl year. You wouldn't call that elite? 7th in both catches AND yards with a broken down Manning and Osweiler as his QBs. You wouldn't saying that $43.5M in guarantees is being paid like an elite receiver?!? At $70M total contract value there is exactly 1 receiver making more (Julio).

     

    An average of $12M a year would make him the 7th highest paid receiver in the league. https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver/

    I guess it depends on how you define elite. Julio Jones, AJ Green, OBJ, Antonio Brown. In no particular order those are the elite receivers. Then I would put people like Thomas, Mike Evans, Doug Baldwin (criminally underrated IMO). Sammy wants to be paid like the first tier and he probably will be.

    Did he just say DT wasn't an elite wr? He was a top 10 wr, at times top 5, before last year.

     

    What is going on with this board? Have the Bills' mediocrity just killed fans' ability to know elite talent?

    Top 10 isn't elite in a league of 32 teams.

  7. What does what I said have to do with the Sammy trade and seeing it in black and white? Im sorry I don't follow that analysis at all. And I don't like the Sammy trade because you don't dump young players in a rebuild, IMO you dump vet players who won't be around when the team actually does turn around.

     

    I'm not sure if you are aware, but a lot of players have a very small probability of succeeding. You've seen 7 games of Goff and made your decision. The Rams haven't and probably won't make their decision on Goff in the next 2 seasons so losing a 2nd next year for a player that will help Goff isn't a massive deal. They want to surround there player they invested in with talent. Like the Raiders did, like the Bucs did, like the Titans have done, like the Eagles have. You know teams do attempt help their young QBs?

     

    And who says they aren't sure about Goff? He's played 7 games. You aren't sure about Goff, that's your opinion. You have no idea what the current FO of the Rams think of Goff.

     

    You know what else isn't smart? Making decisions on NFL players 7 games into their career.

    It is possible to not give up on your QB without selling out on the future in the even that he fails. We've been asking for the Bills to make moves like this for years. Plan ahead, recoup something instead of letting someone walk for nothing. Don't sell out to give yourself a slightly better chance of the wildcard (which is what the Rams are essentially doing).

  8. After spending 6 picks to get Goff I really don't think the Rams would be going QB next year regardless. I don't care how bad Goff is. .

    I get it, but that's the definition of the sunk cost fallacy. It isn't sensible. We played the same game with EJ and it cost us.

    Yea, I mean you should obviously give up on a QB you drafted 1st overall after 7 starts.

    I didn't say give up. See this is why you don't like the Sammy trade, it's all black and white to you. Smart teams need to be realistic about the present AND the future. I'm not suggesting the Rams tank because of Goff's rookie season. But being realistic he has a very small probability of succeeding from this point on. Trading what is likely to be a high 2nd round pick isn't smart when you aren't sure about the QB. Especially when the position you're trading for is dependent on having a competent QB, and that player is in a contract year.

  9. It's a sunken cost though. They are either going to pay Matthews $10M or Watkins $12M.

     

    In terms of elite receivers Julio last year and Demaryius Thomas the year before.

    Where are you getting $12 mil? From what I see online franchise tag for a receiver is $15 mil and that's if we decide we want to franchise him instead of just extending him. For a player with injury concerns who has never lived up to his potential. I understand your view but I can't agree with it.

     

    Demaryius Thomas is not an elite receiver and has never been paid like one. He's on the borderline though and I think that's exactly what the Bills are going for.

  10. Man I just don't see it that way at all. The Rams spent an insane amount of draft capital for Goff. Two first, two seconds, two thirds. They've got Kupp, Woods, and Austin as the starting 3. Not exactly the strongest trio. You took a big risk bringing in 30 year old HC who is supposed to be some offensive guru. You add the highest ceiling WR this year for a 2nd round pick. I get it. And yes, it is Whaley-light. But WAY light. We did it to find out about EJ, a middle of the first round guy - Rams are doing it for a guy they mortgaged the future on. If I'm the Rams, I'm doing absolutely everything to figure out if Goff is the guy.

    This is the sunk cost fallacy, and it's part of the reason Whaley ended up getting fired. I respect the view, I am sure the Rams staff still believes in Goff - they pretty much have to. But a truly rational and objective third party would look at Goff's awful play last year and conclude the Rams should start thinking about moving on. They need to think about what happens if Goff blows this year, and what they will need to replace him in 2018. A high 2nd rounder is tremendous lost value for them but I am sure the Rams think they will be good so they don't see it that way. No guarantee Sammy signs long-term which would make this a historically bad trade.

  11. For those that like the trade, flip it and think about how you would feel. Lets say we have the receivers we have now. The Rams are the ones who drafted Sammy. You wake up to find we traded a second round pick and acquired Watkins. Are you pissed or happy?

    If my QB was Jared Goff I would be pissed. Trading a high 2nd round pick in a QB heavy draft, for a receiver in a contract year with an injury history. That's pretty much indefensible if you ask me. It's a Whaley-lite move. Say what you want about the trade from the Bills side, I think it is far worse objectively from the Rams side.

  12. Good Buffalo Rumblings article about his debut:

     

    https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/8/13/16137168/buffalo-bills-analysis-nathan-peterman-preseason-debut-anticipation-arm-strength

     

    He definitely showed promise. Let's see how he looks in the rest of preseason.

    What that I said are you disagreeing with?

    I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with trying to win now and trying to win next year. They're not ranking but they're also not renting assets for a single season when they dan recoup something if they think ahead. I am sure if they thought they were a Super Bowl team this year they would have kept Sammy, but being realistic they can lose him without changing the direction of the team this season. I don't think McBeane sees value in elite receivers and looking at recent Super Bowls they have a point. Julio is the only elite receiver that has been to a Super Bowl lately. It's not the right position to spend multiple picks and a lot of money on.

    Personally, I don't think a second & third draft pick is worth the box they've put themselves in - much less the value of the traded players - but we'll see.

    They inherited a box and they're trying to get out of it. Whaley left us in a bad cap situation. The fans want the team to extend every player but it isn't realistic. If they looked ahead and didn't see a place for Sammy's salary, it makes sense to get what you can now. Super Bowl isn't realistic this year so why rent him for a year? The only reason you do that is if you're sure you want to extend him and that obviously was not going to be the plan.

  13. Amazing how many fans twist and turn in attempt to convince themselves that the latest WTF moment is actually a good thing for the team. I'm as critical of Watkins as anyone else had ever been but only a fool believes this was OBD being held hostage by a player with low "signability". This is the NFL the owners and GMs have all the leverage, throw around a few extra guaranteed dollars and players start singing tunes of praise.

     

    It's a slap in the face to fans. "Run deep" "All in"... the next slogan should be a little more direct..."you're drunk and stupid just get in here and buy some hot dogs"

    Do you still want to make the Mike Glennon bet? I'm in.
  14. ...and that is my whole issue with this plan. They got worse for 2017 (they didn't even deny that in the presser) but didn't get bad enough to move to the top of the draft. Those bad teams are going to be taking a QB so your draft capital is irrelevant. We are "half-pregnant" to steal a term from that Wrecks.

     

    If the goal is a top QB, go and get him!! You aren't doing that from pick 8. The Jets, 49ers, Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Skins and Jags all may be picking before you and all have the same idea. You have to be worse than those teams. TT and Shady still keep this team competitive.

     

    So if your goal was to compete now, you keep Watkins and Darby and compete. If your goal was to build for the future than finish the year down and bottom out. Don't win 6 games.

    We will just agree to disagree. Frankly I don't think it's possible to say this was a good or bad move until we see how they use the picks and otherwise spend the salary cap next year. I don't even care what Sammy does. If Goff wakes up and they become a dynamic duo that doesn't mean the trade was bad, sometimes players fit better after a fresh start (like Hughes). If we spend the picks wel and our cap situation looks good then this was a successful trade.

  15. ever take note that he was also throwing to 3rd and 4th stringers? good play is good play. if he were bad, people would find the negative. if he played well then "ohh it was again 3rd and 4th..."

     

    again, you can't have it both ways. good play is good play. why would any one expect a rookie fresh to the league to perform lights out against starters? it has to start somewhere.

    Yeah that whole line of thinking doesn't make sense to me. Playing with 2s and 3s is why he only scored 1 TD instead of 2. In preseason I don't look at how good the rest of the players are, I just watch the QB and see if he's making smart decisions and good throws. The actual result is pretty much meaningless. Peterman showed a lot to like and also some things he needs to work on. It's so early.

    That's what I've been saying since the trade. I'm with a joesixpack on this. Don't dip your toe in the water; do a cannonball.

    If they were tanking this would make sense, but they aren't. They are trying to win now and win tomorrow, that's about what you should expect from a new regime that doesn't know what it has yet. They are NOT going to do the Whaley model of selling out the future for moderate results now. They're building a Super Bowl team, not a one-off wildcard. But they're also not going to tank the season because maybe Tyrod takes the next step, they want to see what he can do with a bunch of solid but non-elite guys around him.

  16. This is backwards thinking but strangely I agree. Actually I think it tells us what we already knew, that McBeane isn't sold on Tyrod and want to see what he can do. So they built up a strong core of receivers, without any elite talent, and the running game will still be successful. With this core I don't think there are any excuses for Tyrod this year barring a series of big injuries. We'll see if he's worth the future or not. IMO our receiving core as a whole is better than last year's. I really couldn't be happier with how they handled the WR position.

  17. Taylor has now lost every WR he gained confidence throwing to less then 4 weeks before the season begins so this is cumulative on a QB thats being asked to throw with confidence.

     

     

    with all due respect Shaw can we afford the extra loss and still reach the playoffs?

    This is how the deal could end up looking really bad. If the Bills just miss the playoffs and our passing offense is just okay, and Sammy stays healthy all year, there will be real questions about the Bills punting to next year when they could have won NOW.

     

    But I also think that scenario is incredibly unlikely.

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