[NFL draft rumors 2024]

It's that time for the annual draft rumors thread.

 

Most of the rumors I post are from Charlie Campbell. Every year a few of his rumors come to fruition and he's one of the most reliable mock drafters in the industry - two years ago he correctly mocked all of the top 10 picks which is almost impossible to do. So his information is legitimate.

 

Any legitimate looking rumors posted in the thread I will add to this original post.

 

Added 4/25:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-nfl-draft-week-rumors-thursday.php

 

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For months, I have had the Jets taking Georgia tight end Brock Bowers with the 10th-overall pick, and that outcome sounds like is a real possibility for the Jets. However in speaking to sources with the team, it sounds like drafting Bowers at No. 10 is actually Plan C. Jets general manager Joe Douglas badly wants to trade down in the first round. Douglas wants to acquire a second-round pick, and if the Jets trade down, it sounds like their top target would be LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The Jets want to get a second-round pick to add depth to their offensive line, or possibly take another wide receiver.

 

If the Jets are forced to stick at pick No. 10, they would prefer to draft Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze, who the decision-makers like more than Bowers. The Jets feel they need another wideout because Mike Williams is coming off an injury, plus they want another playmaker to attack defenses. They feel they would be in serious trouble if Garrett Wilson were to go down with an injury, and in a critical year, they would prefer to not be lacking depth at a critical position. That being said, the Jets do not expect Odunze to make it to the 10th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

If Odunze is off the board and the Jets are unable to trade down, Bowers is likely to be their pick. It sounds like the Jets are comfortable with his medical, and they feel he could be an excellent weapon for Aaron Rodgers. They like the tight ends they have, so they do not feel they are desperate at the position. Hence, the Jets prefer Odunze if both would be available. It will be fascinating to see if the Jets can pull off Plan A with a trade down, manage to exeucte Plan B by selecting Odunze, or are forced into Plan C and take Bowers.

 

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Some team sources think Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner could slide some in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Some franchises had some medical issues come back on Turner, which could lead him to going lower than the consensus has been during the pre-draft process.

 

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Sources said the New York Giants are unlikely to take a quarterback in the early rounds 2024 NFL Draft. That would be different if the Giants were in position to land one of the top three: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye. All three are expected to be gone after the opening three selections. It sounds like the Giants do not value J.J. McCarthy that highly. Michael Penix Jr. would be a potential pick if he got to the Giants’ second-round pick, but Penix is not expected to make it close to pick No. 47 on Friday night. Sources said the Giants are very unlikely to take other possible second-day quarterbacks like Bo Nix or Spencer Rattler. It sounds like the Giants plan to fill other positions over taking Nix or Rattler on Day 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

Added 4/24:

 

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The Bills will basically scour the Earth for receiver help this draft. Word is that they love Odunze and loosely know what it would take to acquire him. Do I expect Buffalo to trade up for him? No, that's a steep climb into the top 10. But that's a window into the legwork that Buffalo is doing on the WR position.

 

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While the Cardinals at No. 4 can effectively serve as the draft's pivot point for a trade, teams I've spoken to believe the Chargers are eager to trade back at No. 5, too. "The Chargers have made that clear -- they want to move back," an NFL executive said. "They probably want an [offensive] tackle."

 

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I've been told the Giants and Vikings are the two teams that have been most active in discussions with the Patriots about the No. 3 pick, and that if Washington takes Daniels at No. 2, the Giants would be very interested in trading up to No. 3 for Maye. I've also been told in recent days that the Giants like Penix and might even be willing to take him as high as No. 6. There's a lot of chatter flying around, but what is clear is that the Giants have done significant work on the quarterbacks and are very open, if not desperate, to come out of Thursday night with one of them.

 

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When I ask teams to predict which player will be the fourth receiver taken, one name that comes up fairly often is Texas' Xavier Worthy. Elite speed goes high. LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. is in that conversation, too. He's bracing to go somewhere in the teens or early-to-mid 20s. Thomas was part of the combine medical recheck due to a shoulder issue from college, but teams I've spoken to say that's not a major red flag -- just something they would have to manage in Year 1. He's extremely talented.

 

 

https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-nfl-draft-week-rumors-wednesday.php

 

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As we reported here yesterday in the Hot Press, there is buzz from sources that the Raiders could easily take an offensive tackle at pick No. 13 and then look to trade back into the first round for Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. However, that strategy runs the risk of another team taking Penix and/or trading up in front of Las Vegas to get him. Thus, the Raiders would be taking a risk with such a plan. The question then becomes: do the Raiders like Penix enough to take him as the 13th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft?

 

That decision will be made by owner Mark Davis, general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Antonio Pierce. From his time as the Chargers’ general manager, Telesco is notorious for being tight-lipped and not seeking the opinion of his staff on players, ideas for roster improvement, or general feedback on the team. However, I have heard from sources that Telesco is said to be enamored with Penix. But those sources did not know if he liked Penix enough to value him as a top-16 pick. They thought the Raiders were more comfortable with taking another position at No. 13 and then moving up for Penix. However with the 2024 NFL Draft under 48 hours away all, rumors have to be taken with some consideration of doubt and smokescreen. There is no doubt that it will be fascinating to see what Las Vegas does on Thursday night.

 

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Over the course of the draft process, there have been more frequent reports about some teams grading out LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers higher than Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. That definitely is the case; I know sources with multiple teams that said their franchises have Nabers over Harrison.

 

One AFC director of player personnel told WalterFootball.com:

 

"Nabers’ tape is more impressive than Harrison’s …. We have a blue – elite – grade on Nabers with Harrison in gold. We think Harrison could get to blue as a pro, but right now, Nabers is the only receiver we have in blue."

 

While Nabers has some teams rating him ahead of Harrison, one thing going for Harrison is there are teams that have some character concerns with Nabers. Harrison did not come up with character concerns. Sources from multiple teams with top-10 picks said they had character marks for Nabers. That being said, they said the character was not bad enough to cause them to pass on him based on the questions or remove him from their draft board. Thus, Nabers looks like a near lock for the top six of the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

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Another wide receiver who has been hurt by character and makeup concerns is Texas’ Adonai Mitchell. NFL teams found character issues with Mitchell at Texas and from his early years at Georgia. Another factor that has hurt Mitchell is franchises feeling he does a poor job of managing his Type-1 diabetes. Mitchell has a first-round skill set, but if he slides to very late in the first round or to the second round, it will be because of the character issues and concerns with how he manages his diabetes.

 

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Other prospects have had major character issues that have really hurt them with NFL teams. Some NFL sources said their teams had dropped Ohio State defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr., Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton and Texas defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat off their draft boards because of character. All three have early-round skill sets, but each could slide in the 2024 NFL Draft because of character problems.

 

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Every year, there are some prospects that benefit from a lot of media hype and others who don’t receive the attention they deserve. WalterFootball.com surveyed team sources as to which players were being overrated and overhyped, as well as which players they considered underrated

 

Overrated

Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia

Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington

Graham Barton, OL, Duke

 

Underrated

Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

Kris Jenkins, DT, Michigan

Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, C, Georgia

 

 

Added 4/23:

 

 

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Contrary to a vast amount of projection since March 15 — when the Minnesota Vikings dealt for the Houston Texans’ No. 23 overall pick — there is a growing consensus among NFL teams that McCarthy is not the primary target in a potential trade-up for the Vikings. Instead, it’s believed Minnesota’s top target is Maye. He has a connection with quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, who coached Maye in high school.

 

There’s also a twist in all of this. A very well-connected league source told Yahoo Sports they firmly believe that if the Patriots take Maye, the Vikings are comfortable standing down in trade talks and using one of their two first-round picks — either No. 11 or No. 23 — to select Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. It’s worth noting here that Nix had a private workout for the Vikings earlier this month.

 

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The closer we get to the draft and the more I hear the assessments on the running back class, the more I think there’s a shot that the bulk of the class comes off the board in the third round. I wrote a more expansive piece about the running backs last week, but I have some new data after my last dive into calls. While there has been some consideration about a surprise “first” running back off the board, I’m more confident now that it will either be Texas’ Jonathon Brooks or Florida State’s Trey Benson. That’s not exactly a revelation with both being in play at the top of the running back stack, but it now feels like they're more of a tier unto themselves, with the next tier being a mixture of Michigan’s Blake Corum, Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen and Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright.

 

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Unless Georgia’s Ladd McConkey or South Carolina’s Xavier Legette crashes the party, I think the first-round wide receiver group will be capped at five minimum and six maximum. That consists of Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., Washington’s Rome Odunze and Texas’ Xavier Worthy. A player teetering is Texas’ Adonai Mitchell, who has some more deeply split opinions than the other five.

 

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The offensive tackle run in the first round is going to be wild. There’s a chance that seven tackles go in the first 32 picks: Notre Dame’s Joe Alt, Penn State’s Olu Fashanu, Alabama’s JC Latham, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, Washington’s Troy Fautanu, Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton and Georgia’s Amarius Mims. Some teams also see BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia as a potential late first-round pick as well. The three interesting players from this group to keep an eye on are Fashanu, Latham and Mims. There are split opinions on all three. I wouldn’t be stunned if Fashanu and Latham weren’t the second and third tackles off the board behind Alt (which is the slot they’re often mocked to), or if Mims potentially slips out of the first and into the top of the second round. Bottom line: Tackle order is going to be a little more chaotic than people might think.

 

 

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Yesterday, we reported here in the Hot Press how some sources with teams in the top 10 said Minnesota is definitely trading up for a quarterback. Another team that sources say is aggressively trying to figure out a trade-up in the first round is the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo front office has been calling teams and gauging trades to be prepared to move up on Thursday night. Sources say the Bills are targeting a wide receiver, and the most likely targets are LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. and Texas’ Xavier Worthy. Both are possibilities for Buffalo, but it sounds like the preference is toward Thomas. After trading veteran Stefon Diggs, it sounds like Buffalo is going to be aggressive about finding Josh Allen’s next No. 1 receiver.

 

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For months now, the consensus has been that the Washington Commanders would take LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second-overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. There have been some projections of the Commanders taking North Carolina’s Drake Maye or Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy in the first round, but overall, Daniels has been the most common projection. From speaking to multiple sources with the Commanders, it sounds like the consensus in the building leans toward Daniels but that things are clear not across the board. There have been some Washington evaluators with a preference for McCarthy and some with a preference for Maye.

 

Interestingly, new general manager Adam Peters has sought a wide range of opinions from within the franchise. There are general managers in the NFL who shut out scouts, but Peters has been interested in hearing the opinion throughout the front office, including from staff members who were there under former head coach Ron Rivera and former general manager Bruce Allen. Peters is the one who will make the final decision on which prospect to take at No. 2 overall, and he has been performing his due diligence by exploring the thoughts and perspectives from staff throughout his organization.

 

 

Added 4/22:

 

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Both of LSU’s star receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, have issues with their left shoulders. The risk here is considered relatively minimal—in both cases, there’s a chance the player may have to have the shoulder surgically repaired after the 2024 season. Bryan Bresee, the Saints’ first-round pick last year, had a similar situation with his shoulder coming into the draft last year.

 

 

 

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Many weeks ago, I reported that the Washington Commanders had turned down trade offers at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine for the No. 2-overall pick. The Commanders turned down those offers because they are targeting a new franchise quarterback. In following up with some team sources, they said the Patriots also turned down trade offers for the No. 3-overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. The Patriots have stated they are open for business, but they have turned down offers. That makes it sound like New England is waiting to see if it can get an absurd offer, but more likely, the team is sticking at with the third pick to select a quarterback.

 

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Among teams with top-10 picks, it is nearly a foregone conclusion that the Minnesota Vikings are likely to trade up. Team sources said the Vikings are not sitting at pick No. 11 and are trying hard to get to the fourth pick. Other teams believe that the parameters of a trade are in place between the Cardinals and Vikings. However, the only way they think Vikings may not trade into a top-five pick for a quarterback is if another team beats them to it.

 

Depending on how the quarterbacks come off the board in the top three, the Giants at No. 6 might jump to the fourth pick to get a quarterback they want if the right player slides there. For the Cardinals, that option is intriguing because they would probably get the Giants’ 2025 first-round pick and be in position to still come away with an elite receiver, like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers. The Broncos are another option of a team that could jump to the fourth pick of the 2024 NFL, because they are desperate for a young quarterback after cutting Russell Wilson.

 

Sources from teams picking in the top 10 said the Vikings trade with the Texans to land the 23rd pick of the draft was done to give the Vikings the draft capital to get in position for a trade upward. The Vikings will offer picks No. 11 and 23, as well as possibly their first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, to get to the fourth pick this year. Sources at other teams think the Vikings are almost a certainty to move up and will not be waiting at No. 11 with hopes that a quarterback will fall to their pick. It will be fascinating to see which trade, or trades, become a reality on Thursday night.

 

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Three years ago, the 49ers traded into a top-three pick to be in position to draft Trey Lance, and they did that trade with Miami many weeks before the 2021 NFL Draft. There was some thought that Arizona could do its trade early as well to have more time to plan at the lower picks. Sources, however, said the Cardinals are waiting until they are on the clock because they think that will only help to drive the price up. Arizona general manager Monti Ossenfort thinks time pressure could prompt a team like the Vikings or Broncos to panic and help to max out the level of return that is coming to the Cardinals.

 

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The pre-draft interview process for LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels has been somewhat challenging. Daniels has handled himself well, but teams have questioned some of what is going on around him – specifically with family and how that will impact the locker room. Daniels’ mother was known to be especially close with former Arizona State and current Las Vegas Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce when Daniels was playing for Pierce with the Sun Devils. She also was said to be extremely close to former teammates Malik Nabers and Kayshon Boutte. Teams wondered if those kind of issues would be a problem and a distraction for Daniels in the NFL, but to his credit, he does not seem to care at all about that and has maintained his focus on football. Over the past three seasons, Daniels gave proof that coaches’ or teammates’ relationships with his mother would not impact his play or conduct in the locker room. Still, it was an odd situation that teams looked into during the draft process.

 

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UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu received some fantastic and potentially life changing news in that a lot of teams doctors medically cleared him. Latu had a neck injury at Washington that forced him to briefly retire before he came back with the Bruins and produced two outstanding seasons of rushing the quarterback in the Pac-12. Some NFL team sources were expecting their doctors to flunk Latu, but many passed Latu to keep him alive on draft boards. As a result, Latu has a shot at cracking the top 10.

 

“Latu is the most natural pass rusher in this draft,” said an AFC director of player personnel. “Our doctors passed him, but we can be strict with medical concerns, so I don’t know that we would take him, but someone else will.”

 

Latu has more size, speed and production than the other potential first-round edge rushers: Alabama’s Dallas Turner, Florida State’s Jared Verse and Penn State’s Chop Robinson. Because medical evaluations are different for each team, there is a wide range of where Latu could come off the board. However, his chances of going on Thursday night, and hopes of going high, have improved greatly over the past few weeks since teams received the positive medical evaluations from their doctors.

 

Added 4/21

 

https://wapo.st/3W9A7BM

 

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The proximity of the Giants’ selection (sixth overall) to Arizona’s fourth pick has many giving New York the edge in completing that trade.

 

“They aren’t playing with Daniel Jones, I can tell you that much,” a second GM said of the Giants’ incumbent. “I hear it’s McCarthy or Maye” for New York.

 

Added 4/19:

 

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ESPN draft expert @Jordan_Reid thinks the Commanders will trade into the first round to draft an offensive tackle:

 

"I think this is the worst kept secret in the draft right now -- is the Commanders trading up from 36 or 40 to get an offensive tackle. It just makes so much sense for them to trade up and take advantage of this deep OL class. I just don't see Adam Peters having so many picks and just waiting to 36 or 40 for one of those guys to fall to him."

 

Added 4/18:

 

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In the month of April, there has been a lot of buzz about the Las Vegas Raiders targeting Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in the 2024 NFL Draft. With new general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Antonio Pierce taking over, Las Vegas could start its re-build with a new franchise quarterback after a disastrous run by former head coach Josh McDaniels. Multiple team sources told WalterFootball.com that Penix is definitely in the running to be taken by the Raiders early in the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

Sources said Penix could be in play for Las Vegas with its first-round pick, No. 13 overall. However, the Raiders could also take a non-quarterback in the first round and look to move up from their second-round pick for Penix. Las Vegas has needs at cornerback and offensive tackle, so the franchise could look to select a player at one of those positions and then move back up for Penix. The Raiders like a lot of the offensive linemen who could be available at No. 13. That group includes Alabama right tackle J.C. Latham, Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu, Oregon State right tackle Taliese Fuaga and Washington offensive tackle Troy Fautanu. Las Vegas also really likes Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. Right now, it sounds as if the more likely plan is to acquire Penix rather than taking Mitchell or one of those tackles at with the 13th choice of the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

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Added 4/11:

 

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The Chicago Bears are locked in on USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1-overall pick. After them, there has been some mystery on which quarterbacks are the preferred players for the Washington Commanders at No. 2 and the New England Patriots at No. 3. Some in the media have said the Commanders are high on either Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy or North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye. Some sources believe Washington is more inclined to take LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. In speaking to sources with the Patriots, Daniels is the quarterback their organization wants the most.

 

While New England wants Daniels the most, the team is high on both McCarthy and Maye. The Patriots feel both are legit “top of the first round”-caliber prospects, but Daniels’ playmaking ability has a big appeal to the Patriots, so he is the one they covet the most. If Washington takes Daniels, it sounds like Maye could be the slight leader over McCarthy, but it’s very close. During the course of the meetings with the coaches over these final weeks leading up to the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s very possible McCarthy overtakes Maye, but New England might stick with Maye over McCarthy through the time of making the pick. Sources said Maye did very well on his top-30 visit to New England last week, and McCarthy has interviewed well throughout the process also.

 

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Sources with the New York Jets told WalterFootball.com that the franchise’s inclination is to take a playmaker with the 10th-overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, either in the form of Georgia tight end Brock Bowers or in Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze.

 

There was a lot of debate about whether the Jets would take an offensive linemen to protect Aaron Rodgers or get him a receiving talent. After adding veteran tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses in free agency, the Jets are more inclined to select a receiver with the 10th pick rather than take a player who would be a backup offensive tackle.

 

While the Jets signed veteran wide receiver Mike Williams after he was released by the Chargers, Williams is not fully healthy coming off an ACL injury. They could still use more playmakers for Rodgers to go with Williams and Garrett Wilson. Both Bowers and Odunze are viewed as having the potential to contribute immediately. The Jets love Bowers’ mismatch ability, and they feel Odunze is a safe player with very good character to mesh with their veterans. The Jets have LSU’s Malik Nabers and Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. rated ahead of Odunze, but they like Odunze a lot as well. Right now, it sounds like Bowers and Odunze are the top-two favorites for the team’s first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

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A couple of weeks ago at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, a survey of team sources had UCLA’s Laiatu Latu as the consensus second-rated pass rusher for the 2024 NFL Draft, behind only Alabama’s Dallas Turner. Most teams said based on the film and skill set, they had rated Latu ahead of Florida State’s Jared Verse and thought Latu was worthy of going as a top-20 pick based on the film. However, they all noted there were medical concerns around Latu that could cause him to slide lower and see Verse selected before him. In following up with some team sources, they said the medical concerns are an issue that has left Latu’s draft range very fluid. Multiple team sources said they think it’s possible that Latu will slip to Round 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft because of the medical concerns.

 

With the Washington Huskies, a neck injury that cost Latu the 2020 and 2021 seasons was enough that the program encouraged him to retire. Latu entered the transfer portal instead, and ended up landing at UCLA, where he received medical clearance. He went on to have two excellent seasons with the Bruins, recording 10.5 sacks in 2022 and 13 sacks in 2023. Latu also recorded 49 tackles, two interceptions, two passes batted and two forced fumbles in 2023. He went on to have excellent performances at the Senior Bowl and at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine.

 

Team sources noted that on tape Latu did a nice job of compensating to use his shoulder and chest while tackling to help protect his neck and head. However, doctors can kill a player’s draft status with teams and get them removed from draft boards. Sources said that if Latu starts sliding, it could cause other teams that did not rule him out medically to be concerned that other teams did do that. Those sources shared they think that Latu has the potential of sliding to the second round, just like other recent draft prospects with medical concerns such as Myles Jack, Jawann Taylor, Jaylon Smith and Da’Quan Bowers.

 

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Over the last handful of years, the Buffalo Bills had one of the better safety tandems in the NFL with veterans Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. They were very reliable and steady veterans who anchored the back end of the secondary. However, things could be changing with Hyde hitting free agency and Poyer being a potential cap casualty. With those veterans potentially being done in Buffalo, sources with the team said safety is on the organization’s radar for the 2024 NFL Draft.

 

The 2024 NFL Draft is not strong at the safety position, but the Bills could land some intriguing talents on the second team. The Bills are high on Miami safety Kamren Kinchens. Kinchens needs to run fast and do well in the field drills in order to have a shot at being a second-round pick, but Buffalo really likes Kinchens. Kinchens generated tremendous ball production with 12 interceptions over the past two seasons. The Bills also are looking hard at Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin and Georgia’s Javon Bullard. Nubin is a big strong safety type, but he had some problems with missed tackles last season. Bullard is a hybrid safety/nickel corner similar to Detroit’s Brian Branch.

 

 

[Which player is the draft community too low on?]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

I would go with Javon Baker and Jacob Cowing at WR. Both are top 10 WRs in this class IMO.

 

I've heard from my source that Baker doesn't interview well and may struggle to learn an NFL playbook.

[The Bills need worse recievers]

4 hours ago, Billl said:

 

 

 

 

So your opinion is that if the Bills entered the 2024 season as is, our passing offense would look better than last year?

[Bills top 30 visits]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

However, I don't think they would go that way at #28.... that isn't what this is about IMO. All of Baltimore, San Fran and KC have been strongly liked with Morgan. If there is a team early on day 2 who like him maybe the Bills are trying to set themselves up as the spot to get to.

 

That was my thought in trading back with Washington, if they see him as a LT they would need to jump up to our spot to make sure they get him. Beane getting info on him to sell Washington on the pick? That would be an interesting bit of maneuvering.

[Bills top 30 visits]

I know @GunnerBill loves him. I would be surprised if we went OT in the 1st round but I guess I wouldn't hate it, at least it would be an investment on the correct side of the ball.

[2024 WR Draft Class]

 

[Best Buffalo Bills tweets on X]

4 hours ago, Blackbeard said:

the guy was nothing short of amazing during his tenure here.

 

The last couple of years he was a major problem child. Not all of the information is public. Aaron Kromer's daughter tweeted out "Good riddance" in response to the initial trade news which should give you an idea of the sort of reputation he had behind the scenes. As a player on the field he was amazing (until the last half of last season), but off the field he was a nuisance. Personally I'm glad that he's gone, knowing some of the things that I know.

 

[T'Vondre Sweat arrested for DWI]

Update, and it isn't a good one:

 

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First, and most importantly, Sweat’s blood-alcohol concentration was measured at 0.105 percent. That’s more than 25 percent over the legal limit.

 

As previously noted, it takes a considerable amount of alcohol to get a 366-pound man to 0.105 percent BAC.

 

The BAC was measured at 6:08 a.m. The officer arrived on the scene of a two-car accident at 4:41 a.m. It’s possible, and perhaps likely, that Sweat’s BAC was higher at the time of the incident, and that it dropped in the ensuing 87 minutes.

 

Honestly I won't be surprised if he drops to like the 5th round, or even out of the draft entirely. He supposedly has questions of work ethic pop up on his tape, and now this during the most important offseason of his life.

 

[Does Josh Allen still work as hard in the offseason?]

18 minutes ago, Process said:

Can we close this thread now?

 

It's really embarrassing that some people think Allen doesn't work out with his WRs in the offseason because he doesn't hire a production company to show up and film it. Every single starting QB works out with their guys at some point in the offseason.

[Bills top 30 visits]

A private workout and a top 30 visit. That tells me we're very interested, perhaps as a 2nd round target. Based on his frame and combine I don't think he'll be a 1st round pick anymore.

[2024 WR Draft Class]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I like Coleman, but I don’t think he’s a great fit with Josh.  Josh with his rocket arm is better suited with the separators.

 

I've seen a lot of people say this, I just don't agree. Allen likes finding a matchup he likes pre-snap and going after it. Last year in obvious man coverage situations he was locking in on Diggs first most of the time. If he trusts Coleman to create leverage at the catch point he'll do the same thing with him. And with a prospect like Coleman you don't need super precise throws because he has a wide catch radius and is as good as anyone in the class at high pointing the ball.

 

Allen hasn't ever had a WR with this skill set. Personally I think he would thrive with Coleman. Every gunslinger needs their guy that goes up and gets the ball. The closest Allen had to that was Kelvin Benjamin and, well...

[2024 WR Draft Class]

I'll post Keon Coleman's write up too because I like him and this write up confirms what I've seen:

 

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STRENGTHS: Physically impressive athlete … outstanding body control, hip flexibility and leaping skills to sky the ball and make plays above the rim … didn’t record first drop of 2023 until the ACC title game (had an outstanding gauntlet drill at the NFL combine) … routinely makes 50/50 grabs, and his highlight reel includes several one-handed catches … maintains his focus to track/finish while wearing defenders like a backpack … consistently draws pass interference calls, especially in the red zone … catch-and-go receiver with the limber frame that allows for half of his body to make the catch while the other half gets a head start working upfield … quick at the line and at the top of his route … improved nuance as a route runner, introducing head bobs or jab steps to get corners leaning at the break point … knows how to use his body to shield defenders on slants … able to physically dominate as a blocker and will take cornerbacks completely out of plays … wasn’t expected to return punts at Florida State, but he filled the need and was productive (joined Peter Warrick as the only FSU players with 100-plus receiving yards and 100-plus punt return yards in the same game) … averaged 12.0 yards per punt return in 2023 (25/300/0) … “loves to work,” according to head coach Mike Norvell (NFL scout: “His drive since he was a kid was to max out his ability and cash in for his family. … That singular focus and talent? Yeah, I’ll bet on that.”) … teammates speak highly of the way he carries himself (Trey Benson: “He has so much energy. … I’ve never seen him down.”) … led team in receiving at two different schools.

 

WEAKNESSES: Not a burner, and his speed is mediocre by NFL standards … can be more efficient beating the jam and stacking corners … routes require additional polish and deception … doesn’t consistently separate on film, leading to a high-trafficked catch points (his 30 contested targets ranked second most in the FBS in 2023) … guilty of extending both hands and pushing off defenders downfield (flagged twice for offensive pass interference in 2023) … played through a partial muscle tear in his hip/groin area throughout the 2022 season at Michigan State (an injury contributed to his decision to give up basketball); missed one game as a junior and parts of several others because of nagging injuries (November 2023).

 

SUMMARY: A one-year starter at Florida State, Coleman lined up inside and outside (motion-heavy) in head coach Mike Norvell’s up-tempo scheme. After putting himself on the NFL radar as a two-sport athlete at Michigan State, he transferred to Tallahassee in 2023 and led the Seminoles in receiving — and the nation in acrobatic “He did what?!” catches. Thanks to his basketball background, Coleman “big brothers” cornerbacks up and down the fi eld using size, strength and athleticism. But what really separates him as a pass catcher is his dominance with the ball in the air. Not only can he overpower defenders at the catch point, but he also makes leaping acrobatic stabs appear routine with his natural body control and extraordinary catch radius. Overall, Coleman must develop more nuance to his route running, but his big-man twitch, physicality and ball-winning adjustment skills allow him to be a difference maker. With continued refinement, he has the talent to be an NFL starter (similar in ways to Courtland Sutton). GRADE: 2nd Round (No. 37 overall)

 

The note about drawing DPIs is interesting because it's not the sort of thing that shows up in normal cut-ups. But it is an underrated trait that becomes probably even more valuable in the NFL.

 

Coleman seems like the type of prospect the Bills would love. High upside physical traits, young, puts his body on the line for his team even on run plays, described as having very good work ethic and high football character.

 

[2024 WR Draft Class]

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Was just reading this! Interesting how low he has Legette at.

 

Legette is an interesting prospect because the people that love him really love him, and the ones that don't have him at the end of day two. He and Coleman are the most polarizing WRs for sure.

 

Here is Brugler's write up on Legette:

 

Quote

STRENGTHS: Well-built athlete with speed … galloping, long strides outpace everyone else on the field (his 1.78-second “flying 20” tied Brian Thomas Jr. for the fastest at the combine) … dangerous catch-and-run weapon on bubbles, slants and crossers … explodes out of his release to get vertical and behind coverage (led all Power 5 receivers with five receptions of 50-plus yards in 2023) … can sell deep route before dropping his weight and giving the quarterback a clear window at the sticks … strong hands and can climb the ladder to pull throws down (dropped only 2.1 percent of his targets in 2023) … really competitive and likes to get after it as a blocker … averaged 26.4 yards as a kick returner (29/767/1), including a 100-yard touchdown in 2022 … an impactful gunner on punt coverages in 2023 and genuinely enjoys playing on special teams … established a reputation for his reliability and toughness in the Gamecocks’ program (NFL scout: “The coaches say he became their best practice player. And he never misses a practice.”) … had a career year in 2023, becoming just the second player in school history to surpass 1,200 receiving yards in a season (joining Alshon Jeffery in 2010).

 

WEAKNESSES: Choppy footwork when attempting to gear down and snap 90-degree breaks, leading him to round his routes … has a slight hitch when attempting to work around press and needs to develop his releases … inconsistent results with crowded catch points … had a tough time in the gauntlet at the combine … will occasionally break tackles with his speed/power mix, but he doesn’t have the elusiveness to shake defenders in small areas … will get himself in trouble trying to go east-west with the ball in his hands … missed two games after suffering multiple “cuts and bruises” in a motorcycle accident (September 2021) … only one season of high-level production (never finished better than seventh on the team in receiving before 2023).

 

SUMMARY: A four-year starter at South Carolina, Legette was an inside/outside receiver in offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains’ scheme (64.6 percent wide, 34.0 percent slot in 2023). A quarterback out of necessity as a senior in high school, he was raw when he joined the Gamecocks and didn’t break out until his fifth season (he and Malik Nabers were the only two SEC players to average more than 100 yards receiving per game in 2023). Legette is at his best on runway routes (verticals, posts, crossers) or sweeps and end-arounds that get his long-striding acceleration going. He doesn’t consistently shake tight man coverage, but he will use his size to play strong through contact. Overall, Legette needs to continue developing his route proficiency and tempo, but his film gives off DK Metcalf vibes, and he has the explosive speed and physicality to be a matchup weapon. He should be an immediate contributor on special teams before competing for starting reps outside.

 

GRADE: 3rd Round (No. 76 overall)

 

[2024 WR Draft Class]

Dane Brugler published The Beast today. If you have one reason to sign up for the Athletic for a month, this is it:

 

Here are his WR rankings:

 

[How should we address WR?]

18 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I also think it is not necessarily accurate to compare his last 11 games and extrapolate that to this upcoming season. First off Shakir was not the leading receiver on the team in that time period he was just the most efficient. Shakir only had 27 targets in the last 11 games. That was 4th most on the team in that time period. Diggs had 94 targets, Kincaid 72 and even Gabe Davis had 51 in that same game span compared to Shakir's 27. 

 

WRs are ranked by yards, not by targets. Shakir WAS the #1 pass catcher on the team by that metric over the last 11 games. He bested #2 and #3 by over 300 yards each. And don't make the mistake of assuming his yards per target will stay the same as his total targets go up. His skill set lends itself to low volume high efficiency usage. Don't mess with a good thing like we did with Gabe Davis after he excelled as the WR4 in 2020.

 

18 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

If you draft a WR at pick 28 and at pick 60 how many targets are each of those players getting?

 

A lot! Do you realize we currently have zero starting caliber WRs on the roster that can play outside full time? Shakir should be in the slot 75% of the time, Samuel should be at best a 50/50 split, and the other WRs on the roster aren't even worth mentioning. We have a QB who excels at throwing outside the numbers to the intermediate area of the field better than any other QB in the league, and I repeat we have zero true outside WRs on the roster.

 

We can't afford to screw this up. Diggs and Davis both could be planted outside. We no longer have either on the roster. So we need TWO replacements, not one. And both replacements have to be good enough to start. If we wait until the end of the 4th to find the second guy, I guess we'll have to sign OBJ or something like that just to have a functional outside passing offense. But I would rather just invest high in young players and start making up the massive under-investment we've made at that position since 2020.

 

[2024 WR Draft Class]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

 

I'm good with trading up in the 2nd for McConkey, after taking another WR before him. I personally have no interest in taking a WR in the 1st round whose signature trait is route running. You can find great route runners throughout the draft. I want a physical stud, the type that you never find outside the top 50. We had the best route runner in the NFL for 3.5 seasons. It got us elite regular season production, followed by playoff matchups where DBs were allowed to bully him and erase his route running from the game. In this next cycle of Allen's career I want his #1 WR to be the bully. Let the route runner be the complement, not the engine.

[2024 WR Draft Class]

10 hours ago, DCOrange said:

He's obviously nowhere near as jacked as DK was, but skillset/usage wise, Thomas is very similar to DK right now IMO.

 

Interesting you say that because Legette is the Metcalf comp for me in this draft. Size and speed and ability to go up and get the ball. Not a fluid route runner, but so much a physical stud that it doesn't matter.

 

BTJ is a tough comp. Best I can come up with is a bigger Will Fuller.

[How should we address WR?]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Shakir 100

 

More than doubling Shakir's targets from last year is not a solution. I can't even imagine a scenario where this would be true. Even if you just look at the last 11 games of the season (when he was the leading receiver on the team) he paced for 62 targets over a 17 season.

 

You're actually making the pro-"draft two WRs high" argument here. You've proven that a world where the Bills don't draft two WRs high is a world where Shakir has to get a ridiculously high number of targets just to even have a functional passing offense. That world can't exist.

 

[Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir]

Here you go @Alphadawg7. Today's Locked on Bills episode was entirely about Shakir.

 

 

He notes that out of every WR who ever measured 29" or shorter arms, the only ones to have meaningful careers were Hunter Renfrow, Isaiah McKenzie, and Braxton Berrios. Shakir would be the first to ever make it as even a 50% outside WR with that arm length.

[Which player is the draft community too low on?]

24 minutes ago, HaldimandBills said:

I heard the biggest knock on him to the Bills was that he wasn't smooth and elusive and would struggle creating his own separation in the NFL?

 

I think he creates separation at the catch point - using his size to lean into the CB at his route break and create an available target. There isn't going to be a ton of wide open separation at the NFL level. It's more about creating leverage to give your QB a throwing window. I think Coleman can do that just fine.

[Which player is the draft community too low on?]

I'm sticking with Keon Coleman. Every draft analyst I follow keeps posting his contested catch percentage and that's the end of the conversation for them. Personally I would bet on his size, strength, and competitiveness. He is not even 21 years old yet so he has room to grow into his skill set. When it all comes together I think he could be a true WR1. He won't separate with quicks but he'll bully defenders through the route, at the catch point, and with the ball in his hands.

[TSW Mock Draft 2.0 - Completed]

Chiefs

Dolphins

Bengals

[Why does Beane get a pass?]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Talk about easy to please. 
 

He’s learned from his mistakes because he signed…. one WR after losing 2 starters to FA’s and trades?

 

When Samuel is our starting boundary WR Week 1 and can’t get off the press, he will have learned from his mistakes?

 

When someone gets banged up and Mack Hollins is running routes in the playoffs, he will have learned from his mistakes?

 

I failed my social studies test because I didn’t study at all, but I opened the textbook once after that. I’m learning from my mistakes!

 

I'm not gonna go out of my way vehemently defending him. His failure to invest in WR and leave us in a desperate situation is worth criticizing. But I'm defending him under the assumption he is going to make a real investment at two starting WRs, whether in the draft or one of the remaining free agents or by trade. If he does, that will be two offseasons in a row where he finally made serious investments in pass catching weapons (although I am still totally confused about his failure to sign Hopkins last year). That tells me he has learned something even if it doesn't excuse past mistakes.

 

Also it's pretty undeniable that the Bills had a championship caliber roster at least once over the past 4 seasons. 2021 for sure, probably 2022 if not for a series of mishaps that befell the roster.

[Josh Allen Snapped at Diggs - Per Tim Graham]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We have no idea what Diggs said to him. Could have been a dumb comment, could have simply been "wtf was THAT bro?"

 

If I had ever seen him show a shred of accountability I would buy that. Instead he turns around after a possible game losing drop against the Chiefs making a "this close" gesture and nonchalantly jogging back to the huddle. There's really no excusing his behavior. Two separate teams now, ended the same way both times.

[Josh Allen Snapped at Diggs - Per Tim Graham]

2 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Sorry Josh didnt want to hear that his dumb decisions and 3 ints cost us an easy Jets win.

 

Coming up to him in the locker room and making a stupid comment when he's already down on himself accomplishes what exactly? That's not leadership or teamwork. That's an emotional player letting his emotions get the best of him, as usual.