GoBills808

Wouldn't have even made it to AFCCG without Allen going nuclear vs the Colts

Kelce is the greatest TE of all time You're not going to get similar results w Knox no matter how many plays you steal

Room temp IQ Mixon in his feelings again

Could not possibly agree w this more👍👍

People cannot wait for Allen to fail. It's unlike anything I've ever seen watching the league

big wrong josher

That's not how it works

Yes a simple way of seeing where sharp$ is going is to look at the difference between the amount of bets placed and handle For example if 50% of bets but 80% of handle are on Bengals+5.5 it's likely sharps are on Bengals spread

lol ok

how so

As is the 'bumbling' narrative but I suppose we choose what we want to regurgitate

Correct imo Bills had two TEs lined up over that blitz and Allen's progression started to the other side of the field Have to think one of them missed their assignment to stay in and block

It's the difference between how a team performs in a given situation and what their expected points would otherwise be. EPA stands for expected points added, so it's a measure of how your offense or defense performs above average. The methodology is here https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/opre.19.2.541 As far as QB EPA (or offensive, defensive, etc you can adjust the filters) the 4th down bot has a good page you can play around with here https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/

To answer your last question first- it seems like yes tbh In this offense Allen's reads are deep to shallow. So when he sees cover 1 and the safety come down on the shallow cross the rule is hit the deep go.

Hasn't every player whose contract is up earned the right to be a free agent

That plus the benefit of potential DPI I get that it's not everyone's cup of tea

I said this earlier but the lower percentage/higher variance deep throws, the resultant low comp% and the potential INTs, the general high risk high reward ethos...these are features of the offense not bugs.

I will freely admit to finding it hard to criticize this team rn👍

You won't find me saying it was a great game from Allen All I'm saying if the expectation is 70% for 400 and 4/0 (which is his line minus the picks and drops) we should probably examine why that is and if it's very realistic

2nd in yards 2nd in points it's a you problem

It's not struggling. It's learning as a fan to accept higher variance outcomes because of the scheme. If that hasn't been made abundantly clear over the course of this season there's not much more to say.

The point is the struggles are imaginary

34 points

Played fine Little unlucky w drops INTs fumbles etc Would not change a thing about his approach

Allen also finished second in league EPA