GoBills808

Not exactly or even necessarily Maybe the Pegulas are happy w a stable, relatively successful franchise and don't need a Super Bowl victory for validation as has been claimed by several posters.

You must have missed the guy who keeps demanding a peer review, audit, and double blind study And the reason for being on the same team is because folks don't care if McDermott wins a Super Bowl for another team, we are Bills fans not Sean McDermott fans I assume

It has nothing to do w the owner's decisions It's (arguably) relevant to a prediction about McDermott's chances re: winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo

I know, it's how we support our arguments Like I could go through McDermott's win% and ask how many other coaches lucked into one of the weakest divisions sans Brady or were saddled w bad owners or a bad GM or no QB or whatever...but that's reductive. As valid as your line of questioning but just noise imo. There are easy criticisms of every method we can use to judge...the merits of your argument have to rest in your competence in explaining yourself, not how many holes you think you're poking in the other guy's logic.

For coaches I think it's almost impossible to be great w out a good QB. The league is too dependent on pass offenses. I believe we are seeing that w BB as you say although I would attribute a lot more of his success to Brady than others. Reid I think has credible case as GOAT HC as it stands imo BUT I think a great QB can elevate a coach more than the reverse is true, and that's why the one is always more important than the other

I don't care about his family values, and I think it's great he has cultivated a strong locker room. I always thought he'd make a great college or HS coach. I'd love for my son to play for him. I don't love him as the HC of the Bills. So I won't be checking *****. The goal in the NFL is to win Super Bowls and I don't think he can hack it.

'nobody's more objective than me!' 😂😂

I dispute this Allen is significantly more responsible for the Bills success than McDermott similarly McDermott will be fired before Allen because he's more replaceable, not because he's singularly responsible for victory or defeat

Of course I'm biased against McDermott, I think he's a fraud and at least I can admit it. You go around accusing people of being biased' as if you ask for citations and peer reviews on opinions you happen to agree with. You are not some arbiter of objectivity.

'Sean McDermott is unlikely to ever win a Super Bowl because no HC/QB combo ever has after their first five seasons together'...you need an independent statistics department review to make that analysis 'Sean McDermott is a great head coach because he has a high win%...applause

It is less likely that Allen's success is due to former defensive coordinator Sean McDermott's coaching than it is McDermott's 'best coach this century' title is due to Allen imo

I guess I see it as a valid comparison. w weather we look at all different climates, elevations, latitudes etc and you still get pretty reliable data from the past to make determinations about what might occur in the future. In the NFL we have different teams from different eras with different HC/QB combos, different locker rooms and different ownership but all with the same 5 year threshold for winning a Super Bowl...that would be enough for me to make a determination and feel fairly confident

Your contention is that in this particular data set, the 5 year threshold for winning the Super Bowl is an independent variable? You are saying there are no external factors on a football team/HC QB relationship/lockerroom politics/overall NFL landscape that might influence this 5 year threshold?

Why isn't it a good comparison? We are talking about sets of data points modelling outcomes, they're alike in that regard

I mean yes but that's what predictive models do, analyze past data and trends to assess likelihood of future outcomes Like we might double our expected annual rainfall next year but I'm not going to bet my crop on it

It's not that complicated I think No team that has ever started the same HC/QB combo for more than 5 years w no SB has seen them go on to win a championship

Have you read this from 538 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-coaches-and-qbs-should-divorce-after-five-years-of-not-winning/

I mean it doesn't do us any good to say well, it took Reid 21 years because that was with another team. If McDermott wins a Super Bowl after 15 years w a different franchise that would be meaningless for the Bills

The point is it happens almost immediately after they get their guy at QB You should look at it from the team's perspective imo and not the coach's

We do it w RB a lot Injuries or effectiveness following a 370+carry season, 1800+ carries overall...lots of data on RBs

it's going to be ok deep breaths

NFL offenses w highest net YPA 2022 Chiefs Dolphins Eagles Niners Lions Bills These are all very good offenses, best in the league for the most part. Offenses w lowest net YPA 2022 are all the bad ones: Bears Cards Colts Texans Rams Yes, throwing the ball downfield is a recipe for success.

There's always room for improvement? Lol it's not a difficult concept

Longevity

Urlacher was very good defending the pass played safety in college