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GoBills808

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Everything posted by GoBills808

  1. i could see a few more w out trying too hard like a weird NFC matchup w Commanders dline going crazy or Dak throwing for 500yards or something or even a Texans revenge matchup but yes realistically best case scenario we only have to play 1 of the 2 en route to SB
  2. yet more proof AI is only as useful as the person inputting the parameters yes, winning the turnover battle correlates w winning games. so do many, many other statistics. do us all a favor and look at past posts on the topic, i've been talking about this since 2019 then look in amazement at 3 out of the last 4 SB winning QBs being top5 in INTs that season
  3. Who cares what people say if we win the super bowl😂😂
  4. want chiefs to lose chiefs missing playoffs is the play
  5. lol they wear 100k chains during games too just pure flow
  6. thanks imo if you're offering evidence to the contrary, or have some kind of semirational or nuanced take on a subject, yes by all means throw it out there. im talking about the people whose only contribution is to immediately disregard the opposing view. thats a bad environment for discussion
  7. my thesis (then and now) was the turnover issue was not as important as folks made it out overall im just saying people can look at the same thing and come to different conclusions and that's ok
  8. you're not the messageboard police personally i see something good, i comment on it. i see something bad, i comment on it and then wade thru 50 pollyannas w the same tired 'the team is so great stop complaining' nonsense
  9. likely the same things people were complaining about during Dorsey offense when we also had good metrics
  10. way too risky i still cant believe the bills released video evidence of him throwing a boomerang
  11. trust me the unrelenting sanctimony of the we're positive crew is just as tiresome
  12. there's actually data from last season that suggests it actually isn't that difficult (completing deep throws vs modern shell type defenses), teams just aren't doing it ... The average depth of throw against two-high coverages was 7.8 yards in 2020. It has dropped all the way to just 6.6 yards in 2024. Offenses threw the ball an average of 1.9 yards short of the first-down marker against two-high in 2020. This year, they are throwing an average of 3.2 yards short of the sticks against the same coverages. In 2020, 11.6% of passes against two-high traveled at least 20 yards in the air. This season, that number is all the way down to just 9% of passes. These aren't the overall numbers. They are JUST against two-high. Teams are getting worse at attacking these coverages because they are surrendering to what the defense wants them to do. Completion percentages against two-high are slightly up. Drop rates on those throws are down. The rates of off-target throws are down. "Take what the defense gives you" is a common theory of offense, and teams are taking that to heart -- but it's not working in their favor. And here's the other thing: teams that do throw deep against two-high safety looks are seeing more success than ever before. On throws of 15-plus air yards against two-high so far this season, NFL teams have a 50% success rate. Quarterbacks have a 19.9% off-target throw rate, 8.1% touchdown rate, 5.1% interception rate and 35.3% explosive-play rate, while receivers have dropped just 2.9% of their throws. Teams are gaining an average of 13.3 yards per attempt and 0.65 EPA per dropback. All of those numbers are the best of any season since at least 2019...
  13. yup imo folks got too self conscious listening to nfl media regurgitate 'allens turnover problem' ad nauseum
  14. i guess i'm not even that excited by the 1seed wildcard round has basically been a bye for us 😂😂
  15. first off I'm pretty sure that's Hawes and not Kincaid second- imo it's lazy analysis to say that 'Josh read the play pre-snap' in one sentence and 'there is no guarantee he is as open' in the next. third i certainly never asked for this kind of offense. i definitely anticipated it but I thought and still do think it isn't the best use of allen: and i never particularly cared about allen's turnovers as they were offset by the TDs
  16. swayze bozeman is a great name
  17. look it was only triple coverage
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