[What schemes/concepts would you like to see carry over into this season?]

I remember us using a different dime package a few years ago against mahomes.  Rather than taking an LB off for a DB and only having one; we took a DL off and left Milano, Edmunds, Taron on the field.  I would like to see more of this as LB seems to be a strength of the defense.  It would probably be a edge that comes off if were not getting good heat with them anyway.

[Fox Sports profile on Keon Coleman]

 at 0:23 seconds he gains great separation even though hes slowing down.  Thats a TD if the throw leads him at all.  This is madness to say routine separation and I shouldve never engaged with some one that doesnt have good faith discussion.  This is for the play that starts at exactly 0:10 seconds on the all routes film not the next play that starts at 0:15.  Wow you really wanted to discuss the 0:15 play.  That run is ordinary to you?  Burden is on you to prove it.  How many times did LSU give up a play like that if their defensive scheme was so bad that they gave up such an ordinary TD.  

[Fox Sports profile on Keon Coleman]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

You didn't point them out.  

 

Which ones, specifically.  One play at at time.  Other than the few that I agreed with, which other ones do you consider to be "out of the ordinary?"  

 

Let's assess them together.  

 

 

I provided further exact time stamps to look at to try to assess them with you.  I mentioned i hadnt had a chance to look at that video even though I intended too.  I likely dont have the time to get stills of every play that I listed.  Did you look at the specific time stamps of 7:11, 0:14, 18:56 to show you examples of when he was getting out of the ordinary separation?  I was trying to understand why you thought those plays that are out of the ordinary separation imo are considered routine to you.  Again i would note that you need to not just look at separation when the ball gets to the receiver and need to look at separation at the time of ball release.  Did you look for all -22 as i suggested?  broadcast view really limits what you can see (7:11 and 18:56 have all 22 angles). 

 

Seems like you dont want to engage as I seemingly put more work into your exercise than you did and then you didnt want to reengage (3 line response when i gave examples and wanted to go one by one after already giving you a good bit of my time).  If you wanna be miserable about Keon as a prospect because you didnt look fully enough; then go be you.  I tried to engage in good faith.  My bad and shouldve realized based on your past behavior on the board (really just wanted to watch that video). 

[Fox Sports profile on Keon Coleman]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Thanks!

 

OK, so we start with the LSU game, which was a great game for him overall and from a statistical perspective.   It was also 20% of his season's production more or less in terms of TDs, yards, and catches.  

 

0:08 separation at release (poor throw)

Agree on the poor throw.  As to the route, it's a pretty standard route that just about every WR in the NFL can execute with a properly thrown pass.  

 

What I looked for while watching that video, are traits that will distinguish him in the NFL, not what may distinguish him at the collegiate level.  

 

0:16 Run after catch

Agree, and I'll add, a beautiful YAC on a beautifully thrown ball.  That's one of the few plays that I had as having been noteworthy.  

 

3:04 separation at release (poor throw)

I have this as a drop.  The ball was right between his hands against two DBs smaller that he is.  But here's the thing, all we've heard is about how great he is on "contested catches," well, that was one and it wasn't impressive.  One could excuse it, but that's not being impressive.  The opponent is Southern Miss which boasted the 128th (out of 133) ranked D.  The DBs were a red-shirt sophomore that has hardly played, and a red-shirt junior that has 1 INT in 23 games played.  Happy to discuss.  

 

4:38 run after catch

Agree, one of his best few plays.  Same defenders however, and a whole lot of green after the DB with hardly any experience whiffs on the tackle.  Great hurdle.  It's not going to be nearly that easy here.  

5:40 created separation at stem (drop)

We'll disagree a little here.  You say separation, but had he caught it, it would have been what, a 7, 8 yard gain, the DBs dropped back and only made slight contact a yard or two from where would have caught it, so not quite sure that "separation" applies here.  Otherwise, the DB on him was Andrew Mukuba, a third year Jr. that has 1 INT, 1 Sack, and 16 PDs in 35 games played.  

6:02 separation

again here, tough to call this separation.  It was botched coverage to start, same DB, and it was also a broken play as you can hear the announcer, uncovered he simply came back.  Good play, but nothing other than routine.  

6:15 heads up uncover

Pure botched coverage.  Look again.  Absolutely no one on him at any point during that play after Mickens completely whiffs while going into the backfield.  Otherwise, a very routine 7-yard TD pass.  Credit play-design on that one.  

 

7:04 turned safety around (poor throw)

Yeah, that's a non-play.  Good coverage by the DB, a S it appears to be.  

 

Again, we're looking for reasons to get excited though, not excuses as to why he didn't do more.  

7:40 game winner contested

A phenominal play.  Again, one of the few notable ones.  

9:20 one handed contested

Agreed, another phenominal catch.  I think we've gotten the three notable ones now.  

At 4:38, this one, and the one prior.  

10:53 separation

I have to question separation here.  It was clearly a juke of some sort where he lost the CB, Isaiah Johnson on Syracuse.  It's not a play that he's likely to make in the NFL.  Johnson went undrafted as a Sr. and NFL.com has him projected as a bottom of roster or practice squad type.  So to any extent that he did "separate," that's whom it was against.  NFL.com says this about Johnson in his draft profile;  a fundamental lack of coverage fluidity and deep speed will be hard to cover up as a pro.  In short, he's far from NFL caliber competition.  

12:30 run after catch

Again, Syracuse, and a classic bubble screen.  Up 27-3 in the 4th, this is far more a simply clinic on poor tackling than it is for Coleman on what, a 12-yard gain.  This isn't the type of play that's going to work well for him in the NFL given his lack of speed.  

12:40 cooks zone coverage

Not seeing that here against Duke.  Wrong time stamp perhaps?  

13:15 cooks zone coverage

Again, more blown coverage, the announcer points that out how Al Blades, the DB tasked with covering Coleman, does not cover him.  Good route, good catch, but nothing spectacular, a routine route & catch in the NFL every weekend.  BTW, Blades, that CB/DB, was 6 years in the NCAAs, managed a mere 4 INTs (none in the past three seasons) and 24 PDs in 56 NCAA games played.  He went undrafted and was picked up by the Jets as an Undrafted FA.  He doesn't even have a draft profile at NFL.com or PFF.  

13:45 contested catch

A good catch going down on a clothesline pass into heavy coverage by Travis.  

14:50 yards after catch

YAC are notable when they're in traffic.  After Carson whiffs on Coleman at the LoS however, it's pretty much all but green to the EZ.  Any JAG WR in the NFL makes that play after the catch.  

15:17 one handed contested TD

That was a very good catch.  I'm not sure what they mean by contested, but not sure that's it.  Either way, for the few of those, there are three or four in the video where he doesn't catch it.  

18:10 And the foul TD

A little bit of a pushoff on his end as well.  Very good catch big WR v. a freshman CB.  That seems like a pretty standard catch though, nothing that's going to separate him in the NFL.  It depends a lot more on the QB than the WR.  

18:42 separation at release (wrong shoulder throw)

Not sure how you see any separation at release, it's not in the video.  It appears that he shakes him at the last minute, but having been a non-catch on an overthrow, not sure how this says much one way or the other.  

21:08 separation and run after catch

I'm not sure how you define separation.  Separation is being able to separate from a dedicated defender.  He did not do that on this play or some of the others you cite separation on.  He found (finds) a soft spot in a zone.  He makes the catch 9 yards from the LoS after hooking back, then turns and runs.  Not one defender is in the area to make a play, again, in a what's obviously a zone.  They close the gap and make the tackle.  But separation it is not.  

 

Happy to discuss further if you like.   

 

But I count (I think) four catches of any gravity/magnitude here and anything that should be considered anything but routine.  That's it.  The rest of the video is largely unimpressive stuff, which includes many similar situations in which he fails to deliver.  

 

 

You’re gonna need to show me safeties and off coverage players getting turned around that much for me to believe that is just routine. I was pretty surprised how much trouble he created in that regard.  You need to pause when the throw is being made more too. Look at 7:11 and tell me that’s not very open and then where does the ball land (comically in the wrong spot). That is not good coverage by S. Same thing at 0:14 (there is all 22 of this play if you really need to see how open he is).  18:56 he’s being held gets few yards of separation that he has to give up cause the ball was thrown to the inside for some reason (wrong shoulder).  Also think you gotta stop watching broadcast angle only cause it seems to be limiting how you evaluate. 
 

Additionally what you call ordinary catches are him creating separation at the catch point. He hasn’t learned all the nuances of route running but making space to make a play on the ball translates from bball and he’s very good at it.  So you say push off (lol penalty was on the defender) or routine when he just made it look easy cause he has good ability to get separation at the catch point.   
 

If I get time, I can do stills but I came away from your exercise feeling better than I did going into it. I saw many out of the ordinary plays. 

[What are your expectations for the draft picks?]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Bishop - I want to believe, but he won't play until he understands what's going on out there.   Bishop, like Bernard two years ago, comes with a reputation for being a coach-on-the-field-type player, and Bernard couldn't sniff the field his rookie season.  I have high hopes, but I think he'll have to work his way into the role over the course of the season. 

 

Agree with much of what you wrote, but would note that Bernard had to beat out Tremaine Edmunds and Bishop has to be out Rapp (or Edwards).  I think Bishop has a much easier task than Bernard did.  

[Fox Sports profile on Keon Coleman]

55 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yes, I am.  My sensibilities do not allow me to envision Coleman as doing much beyond #3 production in the NFL.  It wasn't a preexisting bias I came into the analysis with.  I've now spent about 20 (or more) hours reviewing his play, cataloging each and every pass attempt/target/reception into a database, and have analyzed that extensively.  I came that determination while doing that.  BTW, did you realize that a third of his receptions were caught behind the Line of Scrimmage?  

 

But I'll tell you what, I'll make the very same offer that I've made with several people here, that only one person has taken me up on yet, and as a result expressed equal concerns.  

 

Watch this video of his every pass last season at FSU, and do several things:  

 

Provide the time stamp of every play that makes you see something beyond incredibly ordinary in him;  

Provide any video evidence that suggests that he'll be more than just another WR incapable of being a #1 or #2 as this forum seems to define it;  

Explain why you believe that he'll be better than Davis;  

Lastly, explain why his style of plays lends itself to any particular success in the NFL.  

 

We all know the narratives, particularly in Bills Land, but the reality is somewhat different, particularly on his "contested catches" schtick, which PFF points out in an excellently written piece, here's the link;  https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect 

 

Here's the link to the video, let me know if you're game, I'd love to go through it with you.  This time of year there's not much else to do.  LOL  

 

 

 

We've had quite a few WRs come through here whose production here during Josh's time was less than it was elsewhere.  In fact, every season people say the same thing.  Last season it was Harty and Sherfield, how'd that work out?  

 

Watch that video and say whether or not you think Josh being his QB is going to make a pronounced difference.  As well, I'd be ecstatic to go thru it with you here game by game if you like.  Again, it's the boring time of the year.   

 

 

Had been meaning to look at this so thanks for adding here.  Heres my quick list of beyond ordinary plays with a bit of why.  I also don't highlight a few plays that were big chunk plays that were created by his physicality.  Kids still learning the game as has been noted but I see him turn DBs around quite a bit already (wish we had all routes and not just broadcast views for most of these games). 

 

I did know that a lot of his work was in the screen game and am maybe a bit less excited for what he offers based on the video.  However, I am more excited for him as a vertical threat after the video.  Not sure FSU utilized him in a way to best showcase his talents. 

 

0:08 separation at release (poor throw)
0:16 Run after catch
3:04 separation at release (poor throw)
4:38 run after catch
5:40 created separation at stem (drop)
6:02 separation
6:15 heads up uncover
7:04 turned safety around (poor throw)
7:40 game winner contested
9:20 one handed contested
10:53 separation
12:30 run after catch
12:40 cooks zone coverage
13:15 cooks zone coverage
13:45 contested catch
14:50 yards after catch
15:17 one handed contested TD
18:10 And the foul TD
18:42 separation at release (wrong shoulder throw)
21:08 separation and run after catch

 

[What are your expectations for the draft picks?]

50 minutes ago, Billl said:

What is the second round average you’re referring to?  Last year, 40 WRs had 750 yards receiving.  750 plus would put him as a high end number 2 WR. 

 

Coleman was the first WR taken in the second round and the 8th overall. Last year, the first WR taken in the second had 43 catches, 418 yards, and 0 TDs. The 8th WR taken had 22, 377, and 1.   Penciling Coleman in for 750+ is extremely optimistic. 

750 was me eyeballing how much the average was for Round 1 and Round 2 and then multiplying by 2 (figured the total numbers, not per game was easier to work with). 

 

It is optimistic but I think the number of available targets justifies the expectation.  First WR in Round 2 went to the panthers which has a very anemic offense.  8th WR overall went to the crowded Broncos WR room (7th in targets).  The point of this exercise was to look a bit more broadly to get a better understanding of what to expect.  You highlight two precise examples when others should also be considered (7th WR off the board, last WR of Round 1 had 900+ yards, 2nd WR of Round 2 had 750+ yards).  I think adding in these 3 pretty relevant data points indicate its not "extremely optimistic."  All 3 of those players went to good passing offenses and got 90+ targets.  Do you think Coleman's opportunity is closer to Mims & Mingo or closer to Rice, Reed, Addison?   

[What are your expectations for the draft picks?]

Coleman I think be close to the 1st round average and so should comfortably be over the 2nd round average (I think he has 750 yards plus).

I think Bishop starts pretty quickly if not out of the gate.  I think he beats this projection as he gets a few sacks from playing close to the line so much.  I don't think McD has held back 7 rookies out if he thinks they can play (Benford, White, Edmunds, Taron).  Milano and Levi are the only rookies I can think he "held" back and both were super sleepers (Elam is the only other rookie starter, but that was more of an injury need iirc). 

Carter is tough to beat 0.2 splash per game but probably can beat 0.1 (average without 2023) cause he seems to have a knack for swatting passes (did this metric include TFL @appoo?)

Davis will fall short of 500 yards so I think will be below this metric, but would exceed the TD metric if you calculated.  I don't think hell get touches that set up for a lot of yards.  Also I think Ty Johnson will start as the primary back up to cook so Davis may suffer from only have situational use early.  

 

[Should the Bills add an Edge after 6/1?]

15 hours ago, DJB said:

I disagree. We had zero pass rush last year and we did almost nothing to improve it. 
 

Douglas was our best corner once he arrived and Benford is solid. We lack depth but to me DE is a much more concerning question mark. 

4th in the league in sacks!  You may not like what we have done but please couch your takes in reality.  And if you say “but that wasn’t from the edge” you’re just arguing against yourself cause that shows we don’t need edge. I would like more confidence in the room too but wow this was a silly take. 

[Bills visit with Olympic Gold Medalist Gable Steveson]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

If 265 is his wrestling weight, I'd guess a couple good sandwiches would get him to 290.

Even 265 is pretty big nowadays for edge. Average weight for that position is coming down 

[Early 53-Man Roster Predictions]

1 hour ago, TBBills Fan said:

Interesting question for sure.  I would say it would be foolish not to open a roster spot if he has the goods as a long snapper

Meh I think it’s foolish too pursue. Practice rules make it hard for him to do both long snapper and backup center. Same reason back up QBs don’t hold much now. LS, P, K just go to another field and rep it a million times. I get the desire but this ain’t madden. 

[Marquez Valdes-Scantling meeting with the Bills (UPDATE: Signed)]

1 minute ago, wppete said:

Much improved WR room. 

No.  Big concerns at the top (as mentioned above), but better at the bottom yes.  No clue how that translates to production cause Diggs was part of the reason why the bottom had opportunity. 

[Marquez Valdes-Scantling meeting with the Bills (UPDATE: Signed)]

1 minute ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Bills made a conscious decision to not prioritize WR this offseason. We'll see if it works.

Coleman does not = Diggs

MVS does not = Davis

Samuel is the only upgrade, over Harty

Hollins = Sherfield

 

They're definitely going for the committee approach. But I'm worried the threat of the explosive play, big chunk (15+ yds) is pretty much absent, meaning D's will stack the box making it harder to run and do much with the short passing game.  It will be interesting to see how it pans out. 

I have it as

Coleman > Davis (currently)

Samuel << Diggs

Hollins > Sherfield (not sure why you say equal when Hollins has produced as receiver)

Shakir > Harty (that replacement happened last year)

 

stacking the box may not work with a good screen game that Shakir, Coleman, and Samuel have all demonstrated and ability towards.  I also think teams have enough respect for Allen and his yolo style that they will not stack the box too much.

[Marquez Valdes-Scantling meeting with the Bills (UPDATE: Signed)]

37 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The performance of the WRs in the corps is what concerns me. It is also what determines their numbering. I like Samuel and Shakir, but they are both WR3s in a good WR corps. We will see what Coleman can become. I’ll leave that as TBD. Beyond that I just see WR4s and below. 

I share your concern about the top end of our WR room, but thought WAS had a good WR corp last year with McLaurin, Samuel, Dotson (their QB play was so bad) and he was WR2 there.  He was there most successful WR and had the best catch %.

[Rd 5, Pick 168: Edge Javon Solomon, Troy]

On 5/11/2024 at 9:21 PM, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Groot-Oliver-Carter

 

Solomon - Bernard - Milano - Von 

 

On an obvious passing down I love it 

Why would take taron Johnson off the field on obvious passing downs?

[Shakir starter or complement piece?]

19 hours ago, Bills Bud said:

I don’t think he is going to be as good and consistent as people think. He only had a few decent games, and now teams have tape on him so it’s only going to get tougher.

Considering he didn’t get more than 6 targets in any game having a few 100 yard games is pretty good. Would also note he had a big clutch factor with big time TDs. If DCs wanna throw more coverage his way then yes they will do well against him while losing against other WRs. I think it’s gonna be hard to game plan against us cause we have pretty good man separators in Kincaid Samuel shakir that can all also work against zone. I think 800 yards on 50% more targets. So slightly less efficient but still very efficient. Do you think it’ll be less than that?

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

As good a group of pass catchers as we had this January (maybe better) and we were a few defensive injuries and a struggling kicker away from beating the Chiefs.  A team that speads the ball around is harder to stop.  I'm with you on protecting Allen a little bit.  I would like to see a decent short yardage back (someone over 220lbs) with some vision to make goal line less about Josh smashing it in.

Expanding on this I think 2020 was Josh’s best year and while we had the emergence of diggs we also spread the ball around a lot. I think we tied the record for number of players with a receiving TD. I’m very excited if that can be replicated 

3 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Brady is counting on an intermediate passing game that is more efficient, and a solid rushing attack.  

 

We will see if it works, but the plan isn't confusing.  Just might not be what you want to see.

 

Coleman/Shakir/Samuel will be our main WR targets, plain and simple.  Some combo of Hollins/Shorter/Hamler/Claypool will get some outside snaps and likely less than 40-45 targets.  Our downfield passing game is a concern of mine too.

 

But, once Brady took over they're focus down the stretch LY was short/intermediate passing.  Occasional "scramble" play hitting Gabe deep.  Coleman can fill that role at minimum.

 

We are counting on YAC from guys like Samuel/Shakir, Coleman to an extent.  Coleman to be our 50/50 downfield guy, but also someone who wins underneath/intermediate with his quick release and strength at break of route.  Kincaid will be used in a variety of ways, his role expanded at end of year.  Add in Cook/Davis and Knox as a safety valve.

 

This is just a completely group of players.  We have more diversity than LY, IMO, in terms of getting everyone involved at least at the 1st two levels of passing attack.

Would add that Coleman in the screen game, which Brady called twice as often as Dorsey, is gonna be a big piece. Dude can block and get up field quick. 

[strength of schedule released for 2024]

Known but good info.  Where is the SoS in the article?

[Evaluating Beane vs other past and present GM's?]

Great exercise, and is tricky.  Some of these things are tough cause they are intertwined or may not the responsibility of the current GM.  For example is the Marcel Dareus dead cap a negative on Beane when it was Whaley that signed him (this is less of a problem for Beane cause of the sample size but could be an issue for other GMs that youre comparing Beane too). 

 

Pro Bowls are a bit tricky cause they are so perception based.  Starts also gets weird cause a GM in a rebuild will get a boost by starting late draft picks that arent really good. 

 

I do really like the idea of % non-rookies that see the end of their contract (if signed by current GM).  Rather than starts per draft pick you could also do rookies that see end of contract (though you may need to normalize by round somehow).  I think team success is pretty good metric.  Ultimately, the job is a resource allocation position and you are on the right path in thinking about resources (draft and FA), but the metrics are a bit tricky.  

 

I really like this discussion youve started.  

[Steelers decline 5th year option for Najee Harris]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Agree he’s their 2nd best RB. The only surprising thing is that the 5th year option would have only been $6.7M. I understand why a team wouldn’t want to pay that for their second best RB, but with the big increase in RB compensation this off-season it might’ve been worth doing. Especially since he is still their starter and their 3rd RB is Cordarrelle Patterson. 

Appreciate that number as I was looking for it.  That wouldve made him 12th highest paid (AAV) at the position.  Therein lies much of the problem.  You have to be top 10 at your position for the 5th year to be worth.  That seems to be for most positions with QB, Edge, and WR being the only spots you can really get much of a discount.  Combined with the hard cap number and it has lost a lot of its appeal.   

[Steelers decline 5th year option for Najee Harris]

What does the 5th year option for him cost?  Probably a ton for an above average RB. 

[Still a giant hole at saftey?]

On 4/28/2024 at 9:27 AM, GunnerBill said:

So I also see Cole as more of a Poyer replacement than a Hyde replacement. I don't love his timing as a centre fielder whereas his instincts and timing are much better when he is in closer in the box or covering closer to the line. But I do buy the "he is the most athletic safety on the team" argument.

 

Personally I think Edwards will start as the deep safety with Cole primarily in the box. But let's see how it shakes out.

 

I think thats the interesting part to this pick.  Multiple peeps have said his tape lining up in the box is better (and he lined up there more), but his testing says hes athletic enough to be single high.  My question is do you think McD, Babich, and Danna can teach that?  Feels like yes and if so then wow this is gonna be a heck of a chess piece.  I agree until he learns we live with Edwards doing an ok job when were wanna go single high.  Lastly I think of this as a Kelce eraser in some ways.  Would love to have that

[Rd 5, Pick 168: Edge Javon Solomon, Troy]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:57 PM, mrags said:

Yeah and they’ve lost in every game that matters in the playoffs too. I’ll defer to it trusting McD and his process. As they used to say…Show me the baby 

Lol which games in the playoffs don't matter?  Silly take.  The game in the playoffs that you lose is always the one that matters the most.  

[Coleman = Benjamin, Davis = Moss - Beane players]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

That's simply not true. We see guys win deep every Sunday who are strong and get the jump ball. By all accounts, Coleman is already a good route runner and there's no doubt he's an explosive athlete. We'll see.

I think the basketball background has to help with body positioning and high pointing through traffic. Wasn’t who I wanted but excited to see what he can do

[Who Is Your First Round Shock Pick?]

Im with @TheyCallMeAndy and C.  So Ill say Zach Frazier

 

Screams McD (4x wrestling state champ, Dad played in college).  iOL could easily be the play if you wanna keep McGovern at LG (though Collins signing makes me skeptical).

[Bills top 30 visits]

On 4/22/2024 at 3:00 PM, Mat68 said:

I dont see him as anything but the second 3 tech on the roster.  Tough to draft a guy at 60 to be a back up.  Oliver coming off a career year and new extension isnt going anywhere.  His game doesnt really fit as a 1 tech.    

Yes it maybe a back up role but back up 3 tech will get a lot of snaps.  They will likely play ~50% of the snaps.  Do we have another position where a player @ 60 could get that many snaps (let alone impactful snaps)?  Safety, WR, iOL are the only ones I can think of.  Safety and iOL they would have to beat a vet for the job which shouldnt be an expectation, and I would argue 70% of snaps at WR is less impactful than 50% snaps at DT because every DT snap matters and not every WR snap matters. 

 

In terms of Ed's contract, I like the idea of him and a rookie ending their contracts at similar times so we can presumably have his replacement ready to go when his extension is at an end.   I dont think that would be a tough pill to stomach.  I would be pumped for obvious passing downs to have Rousseau, Fiske, Ed, AJ.  Thats a young group that I think could get after it (especially up the middle).