maryland-bills-fan

RB who get the veteran minimum are NOT what we need. If the guy was a cheap good bargain, he would not be available. If just a veteran, we are NOT going to beat other teams with their discards. There is no way we are going to get a top 20 guy- we don't have the money. As to the draft, you are going to spend the money for your draft picks regardless of what position. Pick 30 is ~$15 million, which you are going to spend one way or the other. The second round is 8 to 11 million The third round 75-92 is about $4.5 million (Singletary Moss terrirtory) https://heavy.com/sports/2019/04/nfl-draft-pick-salaries-contracts-signing-bonuses/ So far we have spent about $9 million on RB's and still don't have someone who scared the opponent, who can break open a game, or who can beat a linebacker as a receiver. Look up the stat's on how many running plays run per team. The numbers vary between 34% and 55%. The median value is 44%. The Bills are "2th" (@38%) but if you take out Allens runs,,, they are at 27%. Looks like they don't see the need to run or know their RB;s can't. { https://heavy.com/sports/2019/04/nfl-draft-pick-salaries-contracts-signing-bonuses/ } . We should run with RB's about 40% of the time. Some how we have people thinking that the guy who is carrying the ball 40% of the time is only worth a 3rd round pick?

That is how we got Moss and Singletary. Remember that Moss was the 10th running back taken last year. Do you think they might have been scrapping the bottom of the barrel by that time? I don't think the yards per carry means that much when you only run the RB's 27% of the time. When you outside running game is a jet sweep. When you run that seldom, any run has a huge surprise factor. The defenses are then set up to defend the pass and not the run and not either.

Well I didn't know that other teams didn't split up their RB carries between different players. Thanks for the new information that the rest of the world doesn't know about. Oh and ever if you count up all the carries that Moss and Singletary got , they are 27% of the Bills plays. The next highest team is #33 where there were 33% rushing plays. Do either of them scare the other teams? Do other teams scheme how to stop those two. ... Just saying. Well, scheme that exploits speedy RB's are NOT part of our play selection. I imagine there are ways of getting a running game off of dead zero, even with a o-line that is geared for pass blocking.

Yes.

OK, I don't think we should cut Singletary NOW. I'm don't know when the time to cut him is that will save the team cap money or salary money. I certainly hope that next year, the most we might be having him at is a 3rd or 4th round running back. There will be a lot of much better running backs dropped from other teams because of the reduced cap, and that surplus will depress the market, so we can buy cheap. If dropping him now saves money, do it. If we can wait, well no reason to do it now. Singletary has no value for a trade for a draft pick. He has poor performance. He is NOT going to be a starter on any other team. He has a low ceiling. Teams would be much better off claiming a veteran free agent with a low salary and better performance. Alternately, they would be as well off taking a low round or undrafted RB as on speculation. On another aspect, we are not inside the Bill's coaching strategy sessions. Some posters have suggested that Moss/Singletary would be gangbusters if they only sere permitted to run the ball a lot more. I think they don't run with the ball more because the coaches know it would be effective.

Well Singletary's record of performance is #44th rushing yardage in the NFL. There are 32 teams.

Yes. I was a Bills fan when the electric company was turning on the juice. We don't need a twice a decade player. Just one of the top 2-5 from a typical year.

OK. I think we can all understand what the Bills should do by considering our gut feel at the following time. When Singletary catches a short swing pass. Do you feel a sudden jolt of excitement that he might take the ball all the way to the house? If you don't, and know that is NOT going to happen, then we need a different running back.

Moss was the 44th leading rusher in the nfl last year. Look at all the rookies who had limited playing time and finished ahead of him.

And a high pick in the first round might solve the QB problem. Also note that there are about 5 first round QB's going to be taken. That means 5 veteran NFL QB's and maybe some aging starts might be lined up at the soup kitchen and wanting a job,

OK, here is another thing that the Bills should be anticipating. Allen and our passing game was great for most of this year. But the following type of move: countermove always happens. We put out a very accurate passer and 2 great receivers and 1-2 good receivers. What happened in the KC game is that KC basically doubled up on our best two, AND put good quality DB on the other two. 6 good DB and 5 in the box. Plus, they put on a heavy pass rush, with 4 or 5 rushing and no gap control. They shut down our offence. Right now, most people agree that we should build our team around what is needed to beat KC, who are the biggest barrier to getting to the SB. BUT do not forget that for Miami, the Pats and Jests, we are their first obstacle preventing them from getting to the playoffs and also, we play them twice a year. Expect them to build their teams to take us on. I will be interested to see how they draft DB's in 2021. Miami has 4 picks in the first round and can easily change that into 5 + by dealing their #3 pick. With that expectation, we have to get "ahead of the curve" and their plans as well. We are too one dimensional and they can work on stopping that.

My plan is to pay the draft capital to get a much better running back. That was my plan before the last draft as well. In general, we need to use a pick in the top 50 to get an adequate running back. This year there seems to be maybe 3 players who could fall into being worthy. (Last year was rich in RB's. There was Taylor, Gibson (a surprise), Dobbins, Swift, Hilare, Dillon and (borderline)Akens available. We took a guy last year who was 44th in rushing yards and who just beat out Bryan Hill. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/rushing.htm I am NOT a professional NFL scout and NFL analysis so I can just guess where those top 3 players might be drafted and what is a fair draft cost (pick #) for them. I do think that many teams are happy with the players they took in the first 2 rounds and early 3rd last year, so there might be less competition for drafting them. We pick at #30, several "mock draft experts" have the top two (Entienne and Harris going in the top 25), but more have them going in the early 2nd round. I would not trade up for them. My idea is that a good strategy would be to trade down from our #30 and up from our #62 to get those to picks within the top 50 players. (I have a magic wand that does this). We should than be able to get one of Entiente, Harris or Gainewell with that higher pick in the 2nd round. https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreports.php Etienne is very fast, like #10 from KC. He could be used as a quick hitter through the line in passing downs with a potential for a breakaway run (slows the pass rush), somebody with the speed to get around the corner (keeps DB's and linebackers honest and containing), and, by lining up wide, a mismatch with a linebacker or heavy safety. Harris is a fast power back and can get to the outside better than our Moss/Singletary. He also can power for the 5-9 yards between the tackles rather than the 2-4 yards we often have been getting this year. He is smart and a good enough receiver for the short screen & dump off passing game. (We lacked this from the TE/RB). A good point for the Bills is that he is big and agile enough to probably develop into a good pass blocker or chip-and-then catch guy. Gainwell is fast and shifty will a lot of good opinions on him. He is an underclassmen without a lot of film and played in an average college football conference. His floor is much higher than Moss or Singletary. As to revamping the offensive line? We don't have the draft picks, trade chips or cap space to do very many things. We do have a group that pass blocks well and Josh Allen. It would be a BAD idea to (never the less) try to turn this bunch into a bunch of bulldozers to change to a smashmouth style.

You should learn a bit from history. You need a balance. Do your really think that they have been playing football for 150 years and now you have the ultimate answers? Look how KC handled the Bills in the AFC game. Other teams will do the same. They have the blueprint just like they did and started to counter the Seattle run/pass QB. The counter to the Bills all-pass offense is to punish the WR (ours were all gimpy by the playoffs), get 3 good CB's for man coverage, play one LB, and do a hard pass rush with a DB blitzer coming from odd directions a lot of the time. The Bills will see this, especially from their divisional opponents. If you think that they are stupid and will not draft the people and play the scheme to make this not work.... well, what can I say that is kind. .... We need to get a balanced attack. .. The quickest route to this is a fast, good RB to make them play 1 or 2 run-defense type linebackers and a RB who is also a threat in the running game and as a mis-match against a LB, when he works as a wide reciever.

And they were 3rd round picks that nobody else drafted. You get what you pay for. 10 running backs were selected before Moss. Most of them were drafted as backups. So we went to war with a 2nd level backup as our RB weapon. Do you really think that a slow running back with little burst can dominate in the nfl?

You made me think of something that could be wrong with the Bill's draft selection methods. Ford: WOW , a first rounder who slipped to the second round. What a deal !! What VALUE Epensea WOW, a first rounder who slipped to the second round. What a deal !! What VALUE Moss: WOW, a second rounder who slipped to the third round. What a deal !! What VALUE OK lets ignore that the rest of the NFL are all stupid and passed on these guys multiple times. Let's ignore that 10 other teams looking for a RB or a backup RB passed on Moss. Is there a problem here? What internet draft prediction site are they using?

".....they ought to really push to bring back Daryl Williams. In a perfect world, they'd bring back Feliciano, also, but if it's a choice let's lock down Williams. Bates seemed to play capably when they gave him a chance in the NE, SEA, and 2nd MIA games. He's signed for another year. Boettger is a RFA and should be able to be brought back fairly cheaply."................... .................. NO. Sooner or later you gotta pay for what you want. .... If you are shopping for a fast used car, you should NOT keep looking in the back lot where they keep the old corvairs.

My opinion is that our two running backs look a lot better than they would be if we ran more. Imagine the what the other team's defense says when we hand the ball off to our RB. "WTF ?!!!!! They're RUNNING the ball? Really!!! (then there is a 3 second pause while they try to comprehend that fact before they start chasing the ball" . I don't think you would do better if they carried more.

I see some people really like the idea of taking flyers on a bunch of 3-5rd picks and hope to find a great/adequate RB there. Yes, you can get value if you try long enough. It might take 7 years, but you will real value, even ignoring the lost draft value for the failures. Draft one now in the 2nd round and your hit rate goes up 4X and you get to use him while the Bills are on the upswing. Pay the price, balance the offence and take the fliers on backup linemen. MY QUESTION. Would we have been better playing KC with Dobbins or Espensa? From the 2020 draft: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playerpage/2804420/j-k-dobbins

We pick at 30 and 62 and 94. 30 may not be too high. Last year there were about 5-7 RB worthy of pick in the top 50. This year there are probably 3. I don't know how the Bills and most of the teams rank the running backs this year, but last year a bunch were taken, many teams were already set and there may not be as much of rush on them. If the Bills think that 30 is too high AND the RB will still be around (or there is a plan B guy), then they can trade down from 30 to a pick in the early 2nd round. Actually, RB aside, I would like to see a trade down from 30 combined with a trade up from 62 to get two picks in the to 50.

It is hard to stockpile picks when you are drafting this low. We miss out on the first 15. We get one pick in the top 50. We get only 3 picks total on the first day. ... ... We do not have any big chips to trade off and this year, with the reduced caps, everyone is going to be shedding expensive FA's and looking for cheap rookie contracts.

Nich Chubb was from 2018: Rd 2, Pk 35 (CLE)

Espensa the defensive end. So far this year he looks like a jag. He could be better than average overall but is not a big QB rush threat.

There were 10 RB taken before Moss in the last draft. 7 of them, in my opinion, would have been a big improvement over Moss/motor. Enough to give us a balanced offense. We ran 40% of the time last year which includes all of Allen's "runs". att. yards long avg Singletary 156 684 51 4.4 Moss 112 487 31 4.3 Allen 102 421 24 4.1 There were a few other rushers listed, some might be backwards passes o scramles/sacks. Anyway without Allen included, we did runs to those two RBs about 27 % of the time. The lowest % rushing (including their QB) is 35% Jacksonville. The highest is the Ravens at 57%. ... .My point is that we are way under the league practice in using the running game. https://fftoday.com/stats/20_run_pass_ratios.html https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020.htm https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-play-pct

We might run the ball a bit and allow our WR to flatten the DB's and NOT take the almost unprotected hits they take after a catch.

How does one change the title? Maybe,,, Miami has a strong draft position to rebuild quickly