PlayoffsPlease

I guess Nix and Whaley did things in the wrong order then. Instead of sacrificing picks for potentially elite WR's and drafting third round graded QBs in the first round, you trade those picks for additional picks in the following years drafts, so that you can position yourself to get that QB. I can't recall a GM setting the stage to explain away future failures quite so transparently.

Another not insignificant factor is the division you play in. Some years 8-8 or even 7-9 teams get in from weak divisions. In a smallish sample size that can distort things.

Probably higher if the QB is 11th, and probably a lot lower if they are 32nd. And top 3 is a challenge too, but if they get there they have a shot.

I think Bills fans generally believe the team has an excellent chance to have a top 3 defense this year. I also think fan consensus is that the Bills are unlikely to have a top 10 QB this year. For this study, I begin with the 2001 season. I define top 10 QBs as the the top 10 highest passer ratings each season. And I am defining top 3 defenses based on yards per played allowed. There is no perfect one stat for QB or for team defense, but those are what I chose as being fairly good. Since the 2001 season there have been 25 teams who had a top 3 defense and did not have a top 10 QB 8 of those teams (32%) missed the playoffs. 4 of those teams (16%) lost a wild card game 3 of those teams (12%) lost a divisional playoff game 7 of those teams (28%) lost a conference championship game 2 of those teams (8%) lost the super bowl 1 of those teams (4%) won the super bowl Clearly there is a difference between having the 11th best QB and the 32nd best QB. But based on the arbitrary 10th ranked cut off, this century, if you have a top 3 defense you have 40% chance of advancing to the championship game, a 32% chance of finishing out of the playoffs, and a 28% chance of finishing somewhere in between.

Fact: it is not 2010

You missed my point. EJ doesn't have nearly the physical skills of Kaep, And playing more games isn't going to change that. Field vision, eye hand coordination and the ability to have a quick release are all physical skills too. EJ doesn't hasn't exhibited excellence at any of those either. Other than "prototypical size" EJ really hasn't demonstrated anything to suggest he can rise to level of mid-tier NFL QB.

Any chance that Wilson being the NFL's 16th leading rusher last year with a 7 yard per carry total of 849 yards, possibly opens up space for Lynch. I am nearly certain that defenses do a lot more to game plan for Wilson than they do for Lynch.

Lets compare EJ to a QB most posters here think is mediocre at best, Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has a dramatically stronger arm. Kaepernick has a dramatically stronger track record in college and the pros of running with the football. Kaepernick has shown better field generalship at this point in their careers. They seem to have similar accuracy problems I just can't see any reason to every expect EJ to play as well as him, let alone better. You can do a similar comparison with other mid-tier QBs and EJ comes up short their as well. Surprises happen, but at this point EJ really stepping up to be a mid-level NFL QB will be a surprise.

If the team loses because the QBs suck, it will be because the QBs suck, not because the oline or McCoy or the defense couldn't pick up the slack for sucky QB play. If the QBs are good, the team will win. So the linchpin is the QB.

Thank you for saving me the trouble spell that out.

Maybe he just became eligible for the free upgrade. Money might be tight in the Brady household.

Football isn't the marines. "conduct detrimental" probably means different things to different people. If the high school principal called your house and said your son had just crashed his car into the school, and they had discovered he had illegal synthetic marijuana with him, you probably would be more upset than if the principal callled you up and said they the coach of last weeks football opponent had accused your son of letting air of the football. Part of virtually every NFL football game is purposeful cheating. Intentional late hits, trying to hold players without getting caught, purposeful pass interference on plays that would result in a TD if not for the interference. Some of these are not spur of the moment decisions by players. They are techniques and strategies taught. And their is specific penalties spelled out for them. These penalties are the same in the Super Bowl as in a preseason game. And they are the same for 12-0 teams as for 0-12 teams. In short all teams game plan to "cheat". As far as I know, no player has ever been suspended for "conduct detrimental" after making an illegal play that changed the outcome of a game. There was a precedent for penalizing teams in the NFL for not having the balls properly inflated. It had been previously enforced with the Vikings and Jaguars. It was a $25k fine. No lost draft picks no suspensions. Its quite possible the Patriots decided this penalty was worth risking, just like teams decide holding instead of allowing a sack is worthwhile. I think fans would be upset if on occasion a blatant hold was such a game changer that the refs decided to make it a 30 yard penalty and loss of down instead of a 10 yard penalty and repeating the down. The NFLPA/Patriots beef seems to be primarily a version of the arbitrariness of the rule making process and the rule making itself. I actually agree with them on that. Brady's beef seems to be his insistence he didn't do anything wrong. I don't actually understand his reasons for making that assertion. In the long run, the NFL diminishes its brand if people think the rules are just being made up along the way.

Wilson's passer rating in games when the seahawks were trailing last year was 95. When winning it was 98. Both are great numbers. He was also the 16th leading rusher in the league last year. He is the only QB in the league who can set up his own runs with his passing game. Teams need to respect a guy whose passer rating is in the mid 90's. And they have to respect the run of a guy who averages 7 yards a run for 849 yards over a season. One way to describe an elite QB, is that the QB is the main player defenses have to worry about each week. Even with the seahawks way below average receiving corp, Wilson is the seahawk defenses have to plan for the most each week. Wilson is the key difference between the Bills and the Seahawks the last two years. If Wilson had been on the Bills with the same coaching he has in Seattle, the Bills definitely go a lot farther than they did.

I have felt since the beginning of this is that the appropriate punishment is to allow every team to inflate/deflate their own teams balls to any level they want when facing the patriots this season. Then all of fans that have never played a down in the NFL can see how big of a deal it really is. Based on the resounding chorus of "f'n cheaters" I see thrown around, presumably the patriots would go 0-16 in 2015, and the world would know they snookered the world for the last 15 years, and they were never good. If on the other hand it turns out to have less of an impact on games than having linemen who are skilled at holding without getting caught, or having corners who know how to get away with illegal contact, or head coaches that know how to run a pick play without getting called, then we will all know the entire thing is a tempest in a teapot.

The appeal will NOT be based on the facts of whether or not the balls were deflated at Brady's or anyone elses direction. The NFLPA has already laid out what the appeal will likely be based on: ■ The NFL had no policy that applied to players; ■ The NFL provided no notice of any such policy or potential discipline to players; ■ The NFL resorted to a nebulous standard of “general awareness” to predicate a legally unjustified punishment; ■ The NFL had no procedures in place until two days ago to test air pressure in footballs; and ■ The NFL violated the plain meaning of the collective bargaining agreement. If that is a basis for a lawsuit, Brady's text messages won't be relevant. And therefore its unlikely a supboena would be granted for those records.

Really hard to imagine finishing last generates an A from Sabre fans.

Russ has recently held the job of getting 1/32 of the NFL TV Money without lifting a finger, and selling 7 games in Buffalo, and 1 game in Toronto. He was a miserably failure in Toronto. In Buffalo, a combination of threatening fans with the team moving, the leagues lowest ticket prices, and the NFL black out rule allowed him to sell probably the same number of tickets anyone else following that strategy would have. The challenge to sell 41 games of NHL is a much bigger challenge. It will be interesting to see how he does.

I think it is pretty clear McCoy is try to fill the "legend of" void, left behind by Kiko.

If Wilson were an unrestricted free agent this year, some team would make him the highest paid player in the NFL. There is almost no doubt about that. The problem is that he is not a restricted free agent and that diminishes his financial value. It makes little or no financial sense for the Seahawks to pay him as if he were an unrestricted free agent today. They have a remaining year under his rookie contract, and can franchise him for one season. If the only choice is to pay him more than any player in the NFL, they could also franchise him a second time (unusual, but maybe a better deal than paying him more than anyone else). So the Seahawks basicly have three years of Wilson locked up at a total rate well below being the highest paid QB in the NFL, and with almost no guaranteed money. Three years is a long time in the NFL for a running QB.

This.

I agree with this except for one significant point. Flacco and Manning are not consistent across seasons, but they have both demonstrated 8 or 9 games streaks of extremely high level performance. Cutler really hasn't done that. One off great games wont get you through the playoffs.

I consider getting benched for a retiree who was not even in training camp a failure.

You mean like Brandon Spikes agent? My point is that they will strike a deal. Because it would be insane not too. The Seahawks would be wrong with that evaluation. Put EJ Manuel at the helm in Seattle, and the fans can hope for 10-6 and a wildcard birth just like the Bills fans have too.

Wilson's agent is highly negligent if he lets Wilson play for 1.5 million this season. The different between 1.5 million and 20 x 4 seasons is so much larger than the difference between 20 million and 25 million for 4 seasons. A smart deal for all involved would be for for a 5 year deal paying Wilson 20 million a year for 5 years, with 60 million guaranteed, and giving Wilson and giving Wilson the option to walk after 1 year, unless the team agrees to make him the highest paid QB over the next four seasons based on all contracts in place for the 2015 season. If Wilson has a down year, then the deal is fair for both, and if the Wilson has another excellent season then Seahawks have a choice to pay up, or let him walk. In either case Wilson is set for life. Even if he deserves to be the highest paid player right now, his agent is just stupid to ignore the financial importance of the 1.5 million steal/deal the Seahawks have for 1 season.