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BillsShredder83

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    Offseason Primer Position Group: OL

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    On 3/4/2021 at 10:15 AM, MAJBobby said:

    Sorry for being a bit late, had a ton of travel for work.  Will try and get the rest of the offense finished up before UFA starts

     

    Offensive Line – I was just OK with the OL play.  While they were actually pretty good for most of the season pass blocking their run blocking really suffered all year, and really fell off the cliff when we lost Ford to INJ.  I have a feeling a lot of people are not going to like what I write about this group, but I think I see how the Bills want to build the OL, and that is pass blocking as the priority, over run blocking.  Obviously, they would like that OL that is good at both, but if they seem to lean to the pass blocking more if there is a flawed player at the position.  I will continue to look at the OL in the future under that context, Pass Blocking is the Priority over the Mauler.  IMO this was the lowest performing group in the offense, particularly because their inability to run block really forced one sided offense, which was fine when our WRs were all healthy, when they were not (KC game) it became evident their struggles.

     

    Bills UFAs:

     

    Ty Nsekhe, 36 yrs, OT, 2020 AAV: 5M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – He has been depth since he is come here and has provided pretty good depth and seemed to play good enough when he has had to play.  However, with the cap crunch and the age factor with him I think it is time to move on and look to get younger in this position I think they have that youth on the roster already and I will get into that later, but I think Nsekhe is gone, unless we are talking Vet minimum here.

     

    Daryl Williams, 29 yrs, RT, 2020 AAV: 2.25M, SPOTRAC Market Value: 7.8M – He had a couple games with where he struggled really late in the season and playoffs mostly, rushers with speed he has some issues with, however I think that Market Value is about right on him.  So, If I can get him back on a 3-year extension in the range of a 6-8M AAV I am good with bringing him back.  We start getting over that 8M and I think I am willing to let him walk.  As one of the better linemen this year I would look at bringing him back, but I would want the contract protected as well, with an easy out after the year, like Spain I think there is that chance he can go that route of Spain as well gets a contact and then starts regressing, forcing to move on.  That is what scares me about him, and even as one of the better linemen this season there is nothing with Williams that tells me that he cannot be upgraded, so I would also want to protect against that, may be a player that Bills let hit the market and see what happens with that, I don’t think there is a must need with Williams of not letting him hit the market first.

     

    Jon Feliciano, 29 yrs, OG, 2020 AAV: 3.625M, SPOTRAC Market Value: 8.3M – Another I think could very well walk, I do not think he is worth the market value of 8.3M AAV, also I don’t think he really is that great.  He was known for his nastiness and power yet got abused in both the run game and pass game against power.  The Chiefs game he really struggled, and if that is who we are measuring against we need to get better here, not pay good cap space to tread water.  The issue I am having saying out right let him walk is Morse Situation, with another concussion Bills may be forced to bring him back this year so they have a BU Center as well, protecting themselves in the future if they do not get a Rookie to start grooming for Morse.  I would be fine either way letting him walk or re-signing (depending on the terms) But I think he is actually worth closer to 5-7M AAV. 

     

    Brian Winters, OG, 30 yrs, 2020 AAV 3.0M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – Provided depth, albeit not that great of depth imo.  With declining play and youth on the roster I think Winters walks.  I would let him walk.  Had a shot with Ford INJ and Spain release to secure a new contact instead lost that job to Ike Boettger (who I thought played fine) so moving on.

     

    Ike Boettger, OG, 27 yrs, 2020 AAV 570K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A (RFA) - I would likely qualify Ike at 2nd round value RFA tender this year or re-sign Boettger to a 3-year deal in the 2M AAV range.  I think he has shown he can start in a pinch, I would not sign him as a starter, and that is how I think I am able to keep his AAV down.  Gives him a nice raise and some security.  At 2-3M AAV we have a nice depth OG, however I also understand with him wanted to move on, but as depth I would keep him.  This provides security if you let Feliciano walk (or move him to Center). 

     

    On Contract OL:

     

    Mitch Morse, 29 yrs, Cap Hit 10.34M, Savings 4.8M:  In my opinion any talk of release here is strictly health related with the concussions.  He is a very good pass blocking pivot and is athletic to be able to move, getting to second level and pulling, however at the POA he is a little light and struggles against power.  However not the biggest issue, not an issue at all on the OL except for the health issues.  I personally would keep him this year because I don’t think I am getting his caliber of play within the 4.8M of savings we would get from a release.  However, this is where I let Feliciano walk, draft Morse’s future replacement, and let him play next to Morse as an OG.  However, Bills do have to start planning for life after Mitch Morse, and I think that planning should start this year.  I know people are looking at this as a cap savings cut but would make a hole you have to fill.  So let’s say you like Feliciano here, that’s fine as well, I think it is a downgrade, but then you would want to get Feliciano under contract for about 7M a year, that is his AAV in 2020 and the Savings from Morse. 

     

    Dion Dawkins, 27 yrs, Cap Hit: 11.395M:  Dawkins was our most consistent and best OL this season.  He once again showed people he is one of the better LTs in this league.  Could this position be better?  Maybe and then sliding Dawkins to RT, but I don’t think that is a need.  I know there are a lot of people I have talked to that say he isn’t good and that is shown because when Josh Scrambled, he breaks out away from him, meaning Dawkins isn’t blocking, that is a wrong assumption, Josh just has a natural tendency to break right when he needs too.  Most of the pressure this year am from the interior and the RT side.  He is not going anywhere anytime soon unless they get a better LT and slide him to the right side.  My opinion if you want that to happen just go get me a top end RT and not force the position change.  He does struggle with run blocking, which to me is weird he has the power to be effective there, but a lot of times Run Blocking is more of a mindset than anything, and I just do not think he has that mindset, Was better in the beginning of the season with Ford next to him, than later in the season.

     

    Cody Ford, 25 yrs, Cap Hit: 2.047M, Savings: 307K – The enigma of the OL group, he is probably the most polarizing.  I think he played very well at LG until injury.  It was like they finally found the position that will put him in the best chance for success.  His is athletically challenged on the edge but inside the phone booth much better, then has the power to hold up inside as well.  Putting him in between two established players of Dawkins and Morse unlocked his ability IMO.  It was ashamed he went down with INJ, because he would have been talked about as one of our better lineman IMO.  He is a very effective run blocker and is an above AVG pass blocker inside at OG.  IMO he is slotted right in to start at LG again next year and this position IMO looks solid, with depth needing to be addressed a bit.

     

    Ryan Bates, 24 yrs, OG/OT/C, Cap Hit: 850K, Savings: 850K – This would be an easy cool savings of close to 1M is he was released.  However, you will not find a depth OT, OG, C for 850K.  His value is ability to play every position on the OL.  I would have expected him to play more than he did this year, but we were pretty healthy on the OL with the exception of Ford and a couple nicks here and there.  But just that depth of all 5-position filled under 1M dollars is too valuable to move on from.  When ever he did play since he has been here, he has not looked that he cannot play.  I am maybe a bit of a Bates truther, but find me another team that can fill 5 positions of depth under 1M dollars.

     

    Jordan Devey, 33 yrs, OG, Cap Hit: 860K, Savings: 860K – Camp Fodder, I don’t expect anything from him.  Will be cut and pocket the 860K savings after draft or camp.

     

    Trey Adams, 25 yrs, OT, Cap Hit: 780K, Savings: 780K – I think he will be given the first shot at the swing OT spot.  I liked him coming out of Washington last year and was happy when Bills signed him as a UDFA.  He was an elite OL in college and then INJ took their tool and cause the major draft slip, without his INJ he likely doesn’t leave the first round let alone all the way to a UDFA.  His combine was horrible as well.  But he was kept around all year on the PS, when Bills routinely moved people on and off the PS.  This camp season is going to be huge for him, because I fully expect some more youth coming into the OL this offseason.

     

    Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5)

     

    I would rather stay away from buying OL in the UFA market, as they get pretty pricey however there are also some bargains to be found, and with a constricted cap year I could see some 1 year deals given out to vets similar to Spain and Williams, and make them play to their next contract either with us or elsewhere.

     

    Interior (OG/C):

     

    Joe Thurney, 29, OG (Likely 12M AAV)

    Brandon Scherff, 30, OG (likely 10M AAV)

    Nick Martin, 28, C (Likely 7M AAV)

    DJ Fluker, 30, OG (1M AAV)

    Kelechi Osemele, 32, OG (Likely 1-2M AAV)

     

    OTs

     

    Taylor Moton, RT, 27 (Likely 12M AAV) – Let Williams walk, get younger and better with another RT from Carolina.

    Germain Ifedi, RT, 27 (Likely 1.5M)

    Kendall Lamm, RT, 29 (Likely 3M) Marcus Williams, 25 (9.4 AAV) – Long term replacement for Hyde

    Cam Robinson, OT, 26 (Likely 12M AAV)

     

    Ok to the point of what I would do.

     

    I would probably be more dramatic than most, and even the Bills, but this group needs to be upgraded specially on the right side.  So, what I am doing is letting everyone but Ike Beottger walks.  My Priority signing would be Taylor Moton and then depth with a Osemele and Fluker on 1-year deals.  I go into the draft and find my long term replacement at C, and initial OG in the league until ready to move on from Morse.  If I can pull that off the OL looks a little like this going into camp.

     

    LT - Dawkins / Bates

    LG - Ford / Osemele / Bates

    C - Morse / Rookie / Bates

    RG - Rookie / Fluker / Bates

    RT - Moton / Adams / Bates

     

    Next Writeup: WR/TE

     

    Past Writeups:

     

    Full Overview: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230905-buffalo-bills-offseason-primer-state-of-the-bills/

     

    Defensive Line:  https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230921-offseason-primer-position-group-dl/

     

    Linebackers: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230960-offseason-primer-position-group-lb/

     

    Secondary: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230969-offseason-primer-position-group-secondary/

     

    Thanks for writing this, posts like this are what makes the board great!  Headed back to hit your other positional primers now

     

    Sometimes i want that immediate gratification of a possible K Toney or a package to go up and get Pitts!  That said Im all about drafting big uglies early on.  Morse s injuries make me very nervous, id still like atleast one high end guard, and its starting to feel more and more like RT is going to be a new hole to plug up.

    • Thank you (+1) 1

    Criminal investigation against Von Miller has been dropped

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by BillsShredder83

    On 3/6/2021 at 3:00 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

    I know this time of year is slow but we really need an around the NFL section for the boards 

    Is it really that irrelevant on a Bills message board?  Bills are in the market for pass rush, and hes the biggest pass rusher to hit FA in how long? 10 years??????  Dudes over the hill but still its reasonable to think hes got plenty in the tank to have an impact wherever he goes

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    The one free agent i want us to get: Okwara

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    I was reading on him and although his sacks have dropped a few times, he seemed to be high up the list on pressure %s. I wanna say it was top3. The sacks nice but at the end of the day the pressure is enough with this teams secondary.  I do worry a bit, few people thought he was lazy, but tough to tell how credible the people saying that were. I trust McBeanes judgment to weed him out if that's a concern

    Washington [Edit:] released Alex Smith (still wants to play)

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    On 3/1/2021 at 10:46 AM, Seoulofstone said:

    I know this guy has a lot of fans and it's a great comeback story if that's your thing. But I just don't get why a guy who had such a significant injury, who has made that much money, and who has a young family could think that playing on is a sensible decision.

     

    He's not going to win a superbowl because he isn't good enough. I know that he has a great reputation as a mentor, but really? His comments seem really driven by ego and self-centered. I just don't get it. Most of all I hope he doesn't get badly hurt because he can't walk away.

    Smith is a standup dude, Washington is known to be a scum organization top down. He's not playing after 10 concussions so it's not like he's putting his family at risk. He's passionate about what he does, and might regret retiring before he was ready. I'm scratching my head as to why you or anyone else would think he's in the wrong here

    Dak wants deal right behind Mahomes..my question is based on what??

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

    Are really still doing win totals for qbs? Because it’s pretty dumb. 

    I mean i get that its not the be all end all... but bottom line if the formula isnt working, you dont think its time to move on?  it hasnt worked on the contract hes on, is the team roster going to get better or worse if they tie him up with a fat contract?  hes had plenty of years to show he can put the team on his back and win, and he hasnt

    • Disagree 1

    Dak wants deal right behind Mahomes..my question is based on what??

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Frat-Train said:

    He won me a fantasy championship a few years back and I like sleep number mattresses...   Gotta be worth a few shekels.

     

     

    But yea, no way I’m paying “Mahomes money” for Dak.  But I think Jerry should because draft yachts...

    Unrelated but seriously do you have a sleep number?  He makes the damn thing look so comfy lol ive looked online a few times

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    Gabe Jackson to be released

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    For people wanting to move Feliciano to center and save $ from Morse.... what do you think he could fetch in a trade? He's expensive and his brain is one hit from applesauce, but he's a good player. I'm guessing maybe a 4th or 5th? 

    I guess that pick isn't swaying my opinion on what to do with him, but if you decide too expensive then the picks make it hurt less

    Eagles submit rules change to onside kick

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Doc said:

    I'd say go back to the old onside kick rules.

    They initially changed the rule "to protect" players from the extra collisions i believe.  Even if they wanted to, i dont think they can go back now.  Seems like thatd open them up to all sorts of scrutiny/ lawsuits down the road for deciding safety isnt important again.  I wish they could go back though, there was no reason to make it a lower % recovery than it already was

    Bills submit rule proposal change on interviews

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Jobot said:

     

    Might have missed that, but was that the reason stated?

    When I read the headline, my first thought goes the distraction aspect, and hadn't thought of the 'fairness to get hired' piece.

    I mean even if they did think it was a distraction, they arent going to ay it in the media.  Its likely a combo of, "get good coordinators a fair shot", but also they felt like yes, it didnt allow them to put in 20hr days like alot of these coaches

    Bills submit rule proposal change on interviews

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    2 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

    I remember when I (and others) brought up the notion that it appeared the Offense in particular was struggling once the playoffs were happening and that it could be tied to Daboll trying to balance interviews with game planning / preparation. Several (if not more, I can't recall) were verbally stripped down to the posts essentially saying, "You don't understand how professionals handle themselves", to "That's ridiculous, if they can't get motivated for the playoffs they're not good coaches". Yet, ignored the human element which is intrinsic to all of us: we can only multi-task so many things and presume our focus and performance will remain unimpeded. It can't. 

     

    In the playoffs especially, it takes all of your energy, all of your focus, all of your creativity, and all of your mental acumen to achieve the intended result. AND, you need that from EVERYONE. I like the change and hope they implement it immediately because if the Bills have another banner year, we'll be back to this issue in January 2022.

     

    I'm not going to disagree, because "owning it" is exactly what needs to happen. But we would be naïve if we were to assume that there isn't a natural impact on a coach trying to give the opportunity to his subordinates to encourage a healthy culture while also asking them to make their own choices to stay focused on the task at hand. That said, if you remove that option, then the coach doesn't have to make that choice and everyone stays focused until such time as the two week break or later, when they can be formally courted for a promotion. JMO

    Agreed, we need to own it and acknowledge it.  I think people saying they can do more than one thing here, are doing a disservice to the effort that goes into a playoff run.  This is creme of the crop at the highesst level.  All post season rosters are talented enough to get hot and win it all (NFCE as the exception). 

     

    The biggest difference maker at the post season level is coaching.  If you think a coach can prepare for an intensive interview and still coach these games, you are under estimating the work these other coaches put in.  I do think a game could come down to the staff that put in more hours than the other, even by only a few hours.  These other teams spend their entire day planning and sleeping minimal hours.  You cant outwork another staff AND INTERVIEW, just not enough hours in the day.

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    Brady on "The Late Late Show with James Corden"

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, Gugny said:

     

    While I can understand how many feel this way about him, I've never had a problem with Brady and actually think he's a pretty funny dude.

    You know seeing him relax and smile this year (over in the NFC) I find myself liking the dude.  Some of its not crushing my Bills, but to see him enjoying himself late in his career is refreshing, after leaving the black hole of joy.  Someday he's gunna be retired, and ill be able to tell my kids I saw him play. Spent so much time hating the dude that I never really considered that really. So yeah, I'm not going to nut hug the guy, but yeah cool, try and enjoy his last run with TB!

    • Like (+1) 1

    Texas Joseph Ossai highlights.

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Tough to say too much from that small tape, but i like what i saw.  He is projected in the 1st?  DEs feel alot like QBs in the draft process to me.  Almost have to take a gamble on a guy with 1 or 2 years production and hope it translates. Theres not alot of 10sack guys coming out in the draft, so alot of question marks.  If Beane feels comfortable taking a DE in the first ill be thrilled, as I dont see him over reaching to fill a position of need.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Texas Joseph Ossai highlights.

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Is he LB or DE? He was lined up hand in the dirt alot.  Also, my God highlight reels do all these fun graphics and audio, how hard could it possibly be to highlight the player presnap so I know exactly where Im looking at? Dude lined up at LB, and at L and RDE.  Worst part of watching film, especially on DL

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