Offseason Primer Position Group: LB

[MAJBobby]

Linebacker – To me this is kind of an enigma unit at this point.  Yes, there was times they struggled this year and there were times that they were good.  While all their struggles can not be explained away (especially playing in space, guessing, wrong run fits) you can pin a good amount of their struggles as a group on the DL.  The DL makes or breaks how effective a defense is, and there is a reason that LBers and DL are referenced as the Front 7.  Because they are very dependent on eachother, the games they had bad days in the run game are the same days that the DL really struggled setting edges and stacking blocks.  Now that that is said I by no means will write off all their struggles on the DL.  The thing with this group is scheme, we are in Nickle, we run with 2LBers more than anyone in the league, so when looking at this group you must have 2 starters, a Spot LBer and then depth that complements the 2 starters.  While I think we are OK at this point by no means did this past year settle me in on comfortable with this position group.

 

Bills UFAs:

Matt Milano, 26, WLB, 2020 AAV: 665K, SPOTRAC Market Value: 13.8M – Before I start breaking Milano down I will start with he SPOTRAC Market Value, looking at the COMPs they used they are giving him an edge designation (pass rush) as opposed to just a WLB designation.  So I am sure the agent will try to use that rush skills to get maximum value, but I think there is wiggle room on this valuation because I really don’t think he plays like a true edge.  I guess I could be ok with a 10M AAV contract (though I personally would let him walk at anything over 8 AAV, because WLB is the easiest position to play out of the LBers).  He has a reputation of Injuries, which he does get nicked up a lot, and a lot of soft tissue injuries with him.  Best attribute for a football player is Availability, and that has been an issue with him, But when he is on the field he does make a difference. 2020: in 10 games, 3.5 Sacks, 45 tackles, (only 4 for loss) 9 QB Hits with 3 PD and 1 Pick.  If you run that out for a full 16 (something he has yet to do in his career, best availability year was 15 games in 2019) he does have a career year in all those stats projected out.  But this is a decision player the Bills must think about, He is a home-grown player (something Bills have had issues keeping in the past) however he is also out of the Core positions of a football team.  They locked their first home grown elite player in already with Tre White, will Milano be the second I am not sure strictly based on the positional value and you cannot sign everyone to a second contract. 

 

Del’Shawn Phillips 25, WLB, 2020 AAV: 695K, SPOTRAC Market Value:  N/A – Not much to go off him in Bills uniform anyway, but If they chose to let Milano walk this could be the first one to try and win that position, I would expect that if Milano walks Phillips could get a very team friendly long term deal to try and lock down that WLB spot.  Coming out of draft he was compared to Nigel Brahdam, and his play in pass coverage in college likely makes him more of a SLB or spot play for Bills, does have good hands and physical traits, his play in college though I saw something I really don’t like with LBers and that is getting lost while trying to move through the wash.  I Think a good cheap player though that could be a boom player and if that is the case Bills have a chance to lock him up on a very team friendly deal. I also think another guy will be given the chance to take Milano’s spot first if he is allowed to walk and will talk about him a little later.

Andre Smith 25, ILB, 2020 AAV: 695K, SPOTRAC Market Value:  N/A (RFA) – He will be back, likely given the Original Round Tender, I guess they could not tender him and sign him at a lower value as well, but either way I think he will be back if nothing more than just his reputation on Special Teams and will be cheap.

 

On Contract LBers:

Tremaine Edmunds, 22 yrs, Cap Hit 4.028M: The decision that is looking with Tremaine is work an extension this offseason or just pick up the 5th year option.  Two ways of looking at this IMO, Bills could work the extension now, and get the 22-year-old Mike under contract long term, which COULD turn out to be a value contract in the coming years, or they can wait and just pick up the 5th year option.  I am not sure which route I would go, I think just pick the option up and go into 2021, but I can see the other side of the coin locking up now and moving on.  His stats are roughly where he has been since coming into the league: 119 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 QB hits, 4 TFL, 3 PD.  This year he didn’t have any picks (3 on his career).  But now the question is this who he is or is there still room for the 22-year-old to grow?  I know he is a polarizing player.  I think he is a damn good LBer, he has had in struggles in space this year, but at the same time he has been really good in games as well.  To me it screams consistency issues, those can obviously be worked out.  He is a Core player of this team with the way the defense plays and he is a really good one, when DL is doing their jobs and stacking blocks where he can roam free you can always count on a stuff or minimal gain, where he has issues with when OL are getting into his body, he tries to use his speed to get around blocks, for him that causes dropping depth which opens lanes, I do think he needs to play a bit more physical and play through blocks and not try to run around them.  That is always an issue at LBer with players that have the god given traits Tremaine.  See when I played that same position in College I never had those traits I was a “grinder” so I was all about taking on blockers.  I think that instinct of his to give ground to run around a block can be coached out.  I have seen less and less of it this year compared to his first couple years.

 

AJ Klein, 30 yrs, Cap Hit 6.4M, Savings 2.4M: AJ the tail of two LBers.  Early in the year I wanted him CUT there was just nothing he did right, when he was in the right spot he was there late, I decided he was done and not close to the LBer he used to be in Carolina.  Then like a switch he found his role and feet and boom became a good LBer when he was playing the game Bills wanted him to play.  So why are LBers late to the spot that they need to be at.  There is a couple reason, 1. Doesn’t get the scheme, that was not the problem with Klein he knows the scheme and got to the spot.  2. Physical traits are diminishing, I think that was his problem, he tried to play he still had his speed he used to have at WLB, and he doesn’t have that anymore, once he figured that out, he went on his first read, instead of hanging a half second to let the play develop more, before getting to his spot.  A lot of people will call this “guessing” and in a sense it is (as you become vulnerable to misdirection) but it is something you have to do when you don’t have the physical traits anymore.  When it works people say man that LBer has some nice instincts, when it doesn’t work, they say that LBer is guessing.  Here is the thing with him as well, this yar was one of his best years arguably the best in his career numbers wise, 75 tackles, 5 TFL, 9 QB Hits, 5 Sacks, 2 FF and 4 PD.  I think those numbers work with the cap hit, now that he found his role, I expect him to stay, I also hope he is teaching Tremaine to “guess” and not rely on his physical traits. 

 

Tyrel Dodson, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 782K, Savings 780K: Didn’t look out of place in the games he got time, ended with 22 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 PD and 1 Sack in his limited time.  I think he will be given the first shot at the WLB is Milano walks.  Thing that gets me about him for his athletic ability he is more a straight line.

LBer and not a sideline-to-sideline guy, not good playing scrape technique and gets lost in the wash.  However, if he doesn’t have to move laterally too much, he is good.  Add into that he is stiff in coverage he screams more of a SLB than a WLB IMO.  But then again that is looking at him with limited snaps, so there is a caveat there that he may have different skills and ability than I have seen so far. I don’t think he is going anywhere though.

 

Tyler Matakevich, 29 yrs, Cap Hit 3.7M, Savings 3.35M:  This could be a cut, offers nothing to the LBer Core and was lost when he got meaningful snaps, BUT is a Special Teams STUD.  So that is the decision do you want to keep him for ST vs Limited ability at the LBer spot.  23 Tackles, 2 PD from him.  Mainly when I look at this position group, though listed as a LBer he is more a ST only player logging roughly 78% of all special teams snaps for the year.

 

Darron Lee, 26 (PS) – I am sure they will end up signing him to a futures deal, and I figured I better talk about him as a former 1st round pick.  If you look at his scouting report from College, you will see a legit skill set to fit the WLB of this type of defense.  So, if Bills let Milano walk, he will get a shot at that spot for him, I think he played out of position with the Jets and that hurt his development and why he is now sitting on a team PS.  Total stats from Chiefs and Bills last year, 32 tackles, also played ST in the two gams he was up in Buffalo in week 10 and 12.  He has all the skills, traits you want in a WLB.  Just be on the look out for Bills to sign Lee to more than a futures deal (meaning a nice team friendly long-term deal) and let Milano walk.  IMO he will be the one that wins that WLB if Milano walks.

 

Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5)

I am not sure they do anything here except for Depth.  If Milano walks, they will look in house to fill that spot IMO.  And their depth is decent maybe a Depth Backer and that is the UFAs I will look at, is depth type player.

 

LBer:

Haason Reddick, OLB, 27 – probably going to get paid

BJ Goodson, ILB, 28

Kamalei Correa, ILB, 27

Nick Vigil, OLB, 28

Vince Biegel, OLB, 28

 

Ok to the point of what I would do.

I could be talked into Milano re-signing if it is 9.5AAV or under, other than that I am letting him walk.  With his projected AAV I am letting him walk.  Could look at re-signing Phillips as that depth LBer I talked about should be no more than 1.5M AAV.  I also look at someone like Goodson likely 2.25M AAV.  But I don’t think that there is a need for a UFA LBer (seeing we play nickel a majority of the game).  So I think maybe this is a position addressed in the draft at some point, and also with what is currently on the roster.  Without signing Milano or ANY other Depth LBer this is what our Depth Chart would look like IMO. 

 

Sam – Klein / Phillips

Mike – Edmunds / Goodson / Rookie

Will – Lee / Dodson

 

Next Writeup: DBs

 

Past Writeups:

Full Overview:  https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230905-buffalo-bills-offseason-primer-state-of-the-bills/page/3/?tab=comments#comment-7042742

Defensive Line:  https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230921-offseason-primer-position-group-dl/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-7043409

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by MAJBobby

[Victory Formation]

I’ll take Edmunds back at the right price.. Kid has all the potential in the world but he is struggling mentally. I would not pay premium money for him. Nor would I pay premium money for Milano. If Edmunds is willing to take a team friendly deal I’d love to have him back. If not, let him walk and pick up some compensatory picks.

[DJB]

Good writeup. 

 

I think most can see the physical traits that Edmunds has. But we also see that he plays too hesitant and not nearly ferocious or physical enough for the MLB position. 

 

I've always thought his best spot was WLB, but with the cover issues and sometimes lack of instinct in that part of the game im not so sure now. 

 

Either way Edmunds issues are mostly between the ears and hopefully he figures it out. Otherwise he's a tools with no toolbox type player unfortunately. 

 

Milano is a much more instinctual and intelligent LB than Edmunds, but he doesn't possess the same athleticism nor health.

 

Big decision to make at LB for the Bills. 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by DJB

[NewEra]

Good stuff 👍🏻
 

I feel what we do here with have a massive impact on our D going forward. This defense is predicated on good LB play.  Milano would be worth the 13+ mill price tag imo.....IF we could count on him being somewhat healthy.  His injury history will likely lead to his exit. 

 

Would be interesting if we could turn Lee or Dodson into another Milano. They both seem to have the skill set for it. Do they have the work ethic and brain power to make it happen?  No clue.

 

Micah Parsons would be amazing.  If he slips in the draft, I wouldn’t mind trading up for him.  He’s that good. Won’t happen though.  
 

Dylan Moses, Chazz Surratt and Nick Bolton also fit the mold.  All might have to be taken with our 1st rd pick or in a trade down.  I don’t think any of them will be there with our 2nd rd pick. 
 

what other draft prospects are you guys looking at? 

[DJB]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Good stuff 👍🏻
 

I feel what we do here with have a massive impact on our D going forward. This defense is predicated on good LB play.  Milano would be worth the 13+ mill price tag imo.....IF we could count on him being somewhat healthy.  His injury history will likely lead to his exit. 

 

Would be interesting if we could turn Lee or Dodson into another Milano. They both seem to have the skill set for it. Do they have the work ethic and brain power to make it happen?  No clue.

 

Micah Parsons would be amazing.  If he slips in the draft, I wouldn’t mind trading up for him.  He’s that good. Won’t happen though.  
 

Dylan Moses, Chazz Surratt and Nick Bolton also fit the mold.  All might have to be taken with our 1st rd pick or in a trade down.  I don’t think any of them will be there with our 2nd rd pick. 
 

what other draft prospects are you guys looking at? 

 

Parsons is perfect but to me he is a top 5 - 10 prospect in the draft. 

 

Super stud. 

 

We need Kuechly to unretire and demand a trade to the Bills lol

Edited January 26, 2021 by DJB

[JOSH HUFF]

Milano is the best LB we have period!

[947]

I'd like to see the following:

1- Let Milano walk (if he wants >$8M)

2- Pick-up Edmunds option

3- Sign a MLB

4- Insert Edmunds into Milano's role

D- Keep Klein, Dodson, & D Phillips around as depth

Edited January 26, 2021 by 947

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Good stuff 👍🏻
 

I feel what we do here with have a massive impact on our D going forward. This defense is predicated on good LB play.  Milano would be worth the 13+ mill price tag imo.....IF we could count on him being somewhat healthy.  His injury history will likely lead to his exit. 

 

Would be interesting if we could turn Lee or Dodson into another Milano. They both seem to have the skill set for it. Do they have the work ethic and brain power to make it happen?  No clue.

 

Micah Parsons would be amazing.  If he slips in the draft, I wouldn’t mind trading up for him.  He’s that good. Won’t happen though.  
 

Dylan Moses, Chazz Surratt and Nick Bolton also fit the mold.  All might have to be taken with our 1st rd pick or in a trade down.  I don’t think any of them will be there with our 2nd rd pick. 
 

what other draft prospects are you guys looking at? 

Love the guys you mentioned there. Parsons will be gone in the top ten unless a freak injury or arrest happens I think, but the other guys are great fits too. I've seen Surratt play more often than Moses or Bolton and been impressed by his speed and tackling (I think his ceiling is really high too since he was UNC's former QB and only switched to LB in 2019). 

 

Another guy I'll add who I may be even more excited about though is Zaven Collins from Tulsa. He's 6'4" and 260 lbs who has the speed and athleticism of a much smaller guy. He won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, which is awarded to the nation’s best defensive player in 2020 and he's a ballhawk that made a ton of impact plays. Imagine his size and reach lined up next to Edmunds. I think our pick at #30 or a slight trade down is a realistic bet for him.

 

The main question behind all of our moves/picks this offseason needs to be 'does this guy help us get closer to beating KC?' and I think a guy like Collins does as a possible cover man for Kelce and as a pass rusher. 

 

 

 

 

[MAJBobby]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Good stuff 👍🏻
 

I feel what we do here with have a massive impact on our D going forward. This defense is predicated on good LB play.  Milano would be worth the 13+ mill price tag imo.....IF we could count on him being somewhat healthy.  His injury history will likely lead to his exit. 

 

Would be interesting if we could turn Lee or Dodson into another Milano. They both seem to have the skill set for it. Do they have the work ethic and brain power to make it happen?  No clue.

 

Micah Parsons would be amazing.  If he slips in the draft, I wouldn’t mind trading up for him.  He’s that good. Won’t happen though.  
 

Dylan Moses, Chazz Surratt and Nick Bolton also fit the mold.  All might have to be taken with our 1st rd pick or in a trade down.  I don’t think any of them will be there with our 2nd rd pick. 
 

what other draft prospects are you guys looking at? 

Waiting on the Senior Bowl, but there are a couple interesting Draft Prospects later  

 

But intrigued by

JaCoby Stevens, LSU - A SS Convert in the NFL. (have him as a 4th)

DeAngelo Malone WKU - Small school, but explosive athlete (have him as a 3rd)

Pete Werner OLB/ILB OSU.

Grant Stuard, OLB Houston - Senior Bowl will be big for him (5th grade)

 

[y2zipper]

I would keep Milano for the 8 to 10 million a year but I would have to let him walk if he's going to try to get paid like an elite pass pressure because he's not.

 

...and I think doing the longer term value extension for Edmunds is a no-brainer largely because of the age curve. He's a baby, but the issues on buffalo's defense are not at linebacker.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, y2zipper said:

I would keep Milano for the 8 to 10 million a year but I would have to let him walk if he's going to try to get paid like an elite pass pressure because he's not.

 

...and I think doing the longer term value extension for Edmunds is a no-brainer largely because of the age curve. He's a baby, but the issues on buffalo's defense are not at linebacker.

 

This is where I am at.  If they approach him this offseason about say a long term extension at 9M AAV today I think you do it, because you are taking the risk with the consistency of his play locking him now.  Best de-risk is just pick the 5th year option up and have him play 2021 for an extension, though if he gets his head right and the consistency comes it could become more expensive to do it then than now.  So essentially doing it now, the team can get some value for accepting Risk.  Do it later you are transferring that Risk but could cost more in the long run.

[SCBills]

With having a QB we actually have to pay for the first time in the modern era, difficult decisions need to be made. 

 

The first of which is not paying big money to two linebackers.  

 

Edmunds is likely who they will build around.  I wouldn't even make an attempt to re-sign Milano. 

 

Unless the coaching staff feels scheme was the primary fault of our defense against KC, we saw them both healthy and it was an abject failure.  

[Beast]

Nothing to substantiate this, other than Milano went to BC and Bill Bilechick loves smart LBers, but my gut feeling is that the Patriots will be a strong suitor for Milano's services.

[JGMcD2]

@MAJBobbyI hate that the season is over, but this series you do is outstanding. 
 

I genuinely look forward to reading your breakdown. It’s very well thought out and insightful. 
 

Amazing contribution. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by JGMcD2

[BuffaloRebound]

I like Milano but there’s no way I’m paying a LB who isn’t a pass rusher or who can’t blanket TE’s more than $10m per year.  Same goes for Edmunds.  

[MAJBobby]

11 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

@MAJBobbyI hate that the season is over, but this series you do is outstanding. 
 

I genuinely look forward to reading your breakdown. It’s very well thought out and insightful. 
 

Amazing contribution. 

Appreciate it, I look forward to doing them and then reading all the comments helps me go back and look at something maybe I missed while looking at play of players.  I am glad people enjoy them as a setup for the offseason when forming their own plans.  I hate that the season is over too and I hope that next year I am doing this Mid Feb, after the Super Bowl win.  

 

This offseason is really interesting to me because we are finally in an offseason as a good team, that will have some hard financial and player decisions coming up because once that QB is paid you cannot pay everyone.

17 minutes ago, Beast said:

Nothing to substantiate this, other than Milano went to BC and Bill Bilechick loves smart LBers, but my gut feeling is that the Patriots will be a strong suitor for Milano's services.

I fully anticipate that as well.  

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Love the guys you mentioned there. Parsons will be gone in the top ten unless a freak injury or arrest happens I think, but the other guys are great fits too. I've seen Surratt play more often than Moses or Bolton and been impressed by his speed and tackling (I think his ceiling is really high too since he was UNC's former QB and only switched to LB in 2019). 

 

Another guy I'll add who I may be even more excited about though is Zaven Collins from Tulsa. He's 6'4" and 260 lbs who has the speed and athleticism of a much smaller guy. He won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, which is awarded to the nation’s best defensive player in 2020 and he's a ballhawk that made a ton of impact plays. Imagine his size and reach lined up next to Edmunds. I think our pick at #30 or a slight trade down is a realistic bet for him.

 

The main question behind all of our moves/picks this offseason needs to be 'does this guy help us get closer to beating KC?' and I think a guy like Collins does as a possible cover man for Kelce and as a pass rusher. 

 

 

 

 

This is my guy!!

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

 

Parsons is perfect but to me he is a top 5 - 10 prospect in the draft. 

 

Super stud. 

 

We need Kuechly to unretire and demand a trade to the Bills lol

Agreed.  Only way to get him is to trade up. Not gonna happen

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Love the guys you mentioned there. Parsons will be gone in the top ten unless a freak injury or arrest happens I think, but the other guys are great fits too. I've seen Surratt play more often than Moses or Bolton and been impressed by his speed and tackling (I think his ceiling is really high too since he was UNC's former QB and only switched to LB in 2019). 

 

Another guy I'll add who I may be even more excited about though is Zaven Collins from Tulsa. He's 6'4" and 260 lbs who has the speed and athleticism of a much smaller guy. He won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, which is awarded to the nation’s best defensive player in 2020 and he's a ballhawk that made a ton of impact plays. Imagine his size and reach lined up next to Edmunds. I think our pick at #30 or a slight trade down is a realistic bet for him.

 

The main question behind all of our moves/picks this offseason needs to be 'does this guy help us get closer to beating KC?' and I think a guy like Collins does as a possible cover man for Kelce and as a pass rusher. 

 

 

 

 

Awesome!! I’ve seen him mocked late 1st when I saw his measurements.....I figured he’d be a 3-4 rush LB.   He’s impressive.  Think he can play inside?  Would love to move Edmunds outside.  As of now, I wouldn’t want to resign Edmunds long term if he remains inside.  Not worth the 17mill+ he might get imo.

[Rc2catch]

I’m ok with letting Milano walk. I like the guy I just think at this stage some guys can’t get paid here. 
I wanted Buffalo to pickup lawsons 5th year only for the extra cost controlled season. I think he would of done well this year for us. 
I feel the same for Edmunds. I can agree with a lot of fans that he plays pretty soft for a linebacker. I think he needs to be here long term though. I don’t think we’ve seen him play his best football yet. We need a legit 4 man pass rush and I think we will see a huge uptick in Edmunds play against the pass at least. I leave the rookie talk to those with more knowledge but I like keeping Edmunds around and Klein and working some youth around them.