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Everything posted by jeffismagic
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Andre Holmes - Advanced Statistics
jeffismagic replied to KevinMassare's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
We need Tempo to close the deal. -
10: R1P10 QB MITCH TRUBISKY NORTH CAROLINA 44: R2P12 LB JARRAD DAVIS FLORIDA 75: R3P11 WR JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER USC 156: R5P12 CB CORN ELDER MIAMI I tried to draft Trubisky, Mahomes, and Kelly but KC screwed me over. 171: R5P27 QB CHAD KELLY MISSISSIPPI 195: R6P11 WR AMBA ETTA-TAWO SYRACUSE
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Bills What If: Brady Didn't End Up With The Patriots
jeffismagic replied to corta765's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Butterfly effect creates larger changes as we move away from the initial event. In the end, I see Donald Trump buying the Bills and making them Great Again. Hillary gets elected in this parallel world but is so excited upon winning that she has a heart attack and Martin O'Malley becomes the president. No one knows who he is and SNL shuts down. -
I'll post this again as it might have dropped off for some. Here is where I isolate the running threat at QB in a Greg Roman offense and the variables explained. Ok, so we have heard over and over how TT is responsible for our great running game. Bandit tried to quantify that by using 2015 games where EJ started. He shows that games where TT started the running game was better by .5 yard. Now that is a sample size of 2, very small. I didn't want to use the 2016 finale as that game the team had quit. So I found a perfect opportunity to test the Elite QB runner helps the running backs theory. The 2012 San Francisco 49ers. Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. Colin Kaepernick as a more dangerous runner than TT. Alex Smith as the other QB who was mobile but not a scary running threat. As it happens, we have a decent sample size for each as Alex started the year and Kap finished it off. I decided to use Frank Gore the feature back's numbers under each to keep random noise lower. First 8 games where Alex Smith started: Frank Gore 199 carries, 656 yards. 5.51 yards per carry The next game Alex and Colin shared a lot of snaps, so I discounted it. Final 7 game where Kaepernick started: Frank Gore 118 carries, 461 yards. 3.91 yards per carry So here is a Greg Roman offense, similar to the Bills, where we have a large sample size of half a season for effects of running threat for QB. Yet the running QB had much worse yards per carry for Frank Gore! http://www.pro-footb...ms/sfo/2012.htm
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He already has EJ's replacement coming. Get ready for Kizer time!!!
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Don't tell me you're thinking EJ might...no!
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Well, at least the Bills fanbase can move on now.
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What about Roman's offense in 2012? What did you think about that year where Colin Kaepernick started as well as Alex Smith. Under your theory shouldn't the YPC be higher under Kaepernick? That's not really that relevant. There were 3 games to use. The 2016 game the team quit. In the 2015 games where EJ started, Shady ran for over 5 a carry in one game and under 4 in another. 2 games is not a real sample size.
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It will be interesting to see if he can be a competent backup with good coaching. Maybe he can be the next Todd Collins.
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Ok, so we have heard over and over how TT is responsible for our great running game. Bandit tried to quantify that by using 2015 games where EJ started. He shows that games where TT started the running game was better by .5 yard. Now that is a sample size of 2, very small. I didn't want to use the 2016 finale as that game the team had quit. So I found a perfect opportunity to test the Elite QB runner helps other running backs theory. The 2012 San Francisco 49ers. Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. Colin Kaepernick as a more dangerous runner than TT. Alex Smith as the other QB who was mobile but not a scary running threat. As it happens, we have a decent sample size for each as Alex started the year and Kap finished it off. I decided to use Frank Gore the feature back's numbers under each to keep random noise lower. First 8 games where Alex Smith started: Frank Gore 199 carries, 656 yards. 5.51 yards per carry The next game Alex and Colin shared a lot of snaps, so I discounted it. Final 7 game where Kaepernick started: Frank Gore 118 carries, 461 yards. 3.91 yards per carry So here is a Greg Roman offense, similar to the Bills, where we have a large sample size of half a season for effects of running threat for QB. Yet the running QB had much worse yards per carry for Frank Gore! http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/2012.htm