GunnerBill
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Posts posted by GunnerBill
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4 minutes ago, Chaos said:
My observation was on the rare occassion Allen actually forced a ball to Diggs, it was because Josh so no one open, and played as if he thought Diggs was his best option. I would be curious to see videos or photos of plays where Allen obviously passed up an open reciever to throw to a covered Diggs.
While the tape definitely showed Diggs struggled to get open deep down the stretch in the short and intermediate areas he was still our most open receiver and by a fair amount. I didn't see a ton of evidence of Josh forcing it him.
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16 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
10 is the absolute best case scenario
9 or less is more likely. If Rodgers stays healthy, that team wins the division, and the Bills are on the outside looking in
I just don't trust Aaron Rodgers' motivation. I do think the Jets are the threat to the Bills in the division but I think Aaron is already retired in his head. If the Jets get off to a hot start they are a threat. But when adversity hits I think he will check out very quickly.
I have the Bills winning 10 or 11. That could be enough for the division. It will likely be enough for the playoffs. I think the Jets could be a playoff team. I don't think Miami will be because I think their defense is gonna suck and while they will put up points against bad teams they will stall against good teams as per usual.
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2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
I'm ashamed to admit my first thought was the same. When he's got his arms up while seated on a bench in the weight rack. Looking in shape but not possessing the arm length of a 6' man.
It was while he was explaining why he trains without gloves on for me. And once I saw them I couldn't unsee them. It was like "why has this grown man borrowed his arms off a 14 year old boy?"
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I just watched it. Look Shakir is a good dude and I appreciate how hard he is working to be better..... but all through his workout I was just thinking "man how short are that dude's arms?" He must have someone tie his laces for him.
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1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:
I see him on the PS for the year or poachedHe won't get through a year on the PS. I am pretty sure on that. If they want to keep him they need to find a way to get him on the roster. Even if he makes it the the PS at cutdowns he wont last there for the year.
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I think it means a 10 or 11 win season and a year where they go with more young guys over vets on those close roster decisions (whether that is about the 53 or about who starts on gameday).
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I don't think MIN would have taken Penix from the intel I heard but they were sufficiently comfortable with Penix to not be willing to pay a steep price for McCarthy. In the end of course they did trade up for McCarthy. The Jets did the old one pick double bluff.
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12 hours ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:
I’m a big Ohio State fan so I had my eye on McCarthy all year. He has good character and athleticism.Do you feel that he has the arm talent to make it in the NFL? Maybe he just didn’t get to throw it enough in that offense, but I just don’t see the evidence of an NFL caliber passer. Especially when compared with some of the other top guys.
Oh good we need more Ohio State fans around here...... 🤣
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4 hours ago, Pete said:
we should receive a 4th and a 5th for Gabe and Floyd, if the NFL does not mother***** us again. I heard on WGR that the FA period where comp picks are calculated, ended last night. No signings going forward count against comp pick formula
1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7 LFG Beane and Buffalo!
We'd only have one 5th and two 6s but no 7th. Our original 5 belongs to the Eagles, via Houston as part of the Diggs trade. Our 7th was swapped for NYG's 6th in the Boogie trade. So if the comp formula does work out for us then I make it:
one 1st
two 2nds
one 3rd
three 4ths
one 5th
two 6ths
10 picks total.
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4 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:
It was a deep tackle class this year … I would have liked to have seen them take a more experienced guy than the two projects they took at the end … neither will be ready in 12 months for a starter role…
Grable is still a work in progress but he is pretty experienced. He has 43 college starts at left tackle. Okay they were at Jacksonville State and UCF but I think he could be in the mix for a starting role in 2025 if they can keep him and develop him. My bigger question is how he translates to the right side.
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37 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:
Not throwing a tantrum, don't really care. But "a handful of fans" "don't understand the system"? Really? The Bills Front Office thought they were getting a 3rd, so did all the pundits/experts & every fan (never heard anyone say different beforehand). If you watched Beane's comments on it, he said he was surprised and pissed about it (as he should have been). He said they checked w/ the league multiple times & were told they were on track for a 3rd. He said it changed some things bc he was relying on having that 3rd rounder when he traded away his 3rd for Rasul Douglas. He also mentioned it again post first round when he said he was glad they could recoup the 3rd in the trade back in the 1st w/ KC. I'm not advocating changing their philosophy. I don't need to, Beane's a smart guy he adapts & isn't going to be taken by surprise again. I'm pointing out the comp pick spots aren't 100% predictable & therefore 100% reliable when planning, that's just a fact.
The bolded is true. but that is NOT what you originally said, is it? You said "comp picks are fake"
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11 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:
Sort of random observation but today there has been a big shift in OTC data. Mack Hollins, who was previously way below the threshold, is now listed exactly as cutoff player at 670 (I am not sure, but he was listed as something like 710th or so before).
This results in Bills losing 5th round pick for Floyd, and leave us with 4th round for Gabe Davis only.
I know that after Tremaine debacle these unofficial sources need to be taken with a grain of salt, but I still find it interesting.
Hopefully once all is said and done Hollins will fall under the line and we'll get 4th and 5th.
https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks
Hmm. It's not showing that now for me. Possibly a glitch yesterday? He is close though because Edwards does count at $2.8m, so Hollins at $2.6m is only just the wrong side of the line.
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7 minutes ago, section122 said:
After having to start klein last year i think it was clear lb was a need.
I know many people wanted to double up at wr but when you go down the line of kincaid, coleman, shakir, samuel, cook, and knox, you are talking about someone fighting to be the 6th target at best.
Lastly the Bills have a 5th round dart throw at wr on the roster already in shorter. I don't know that they wanted another late round developmental guy.
Not to me it wasn't. If any single team in the NFL is down 3 or 4 guys at a position they are starting someone like an AJ Klein. It sucks that we had a cluster injury at a position but we did. Thats like saying the 49ers needed a QB because if what happened in the NFCCG in 2022.
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37 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:
Thanks for your thoughts Gunner, appreciated as always.
It seems pretty obvious that you didn’t like Ulofoshio pick, you were unusually vocal about it in other threads 😊
Two things.
1. As for WRs, you are the one who says Bills have 100 or so players on their board. So maybe Thrash just wasn’t on their board at all and Washington was rated way lower than Ulofoshio. Then they made the right choice. I don’t want them to take flyer on WR just for the sake of taking flyer (or actually I do want, but not at all costs).
2. I have no idea about the player, but if they think he could for example play Matakevich’s role in ST, and be as good as him, that alone makes him a good pick. We need to fill these roles with cheap rookies and not pay $3M a year for ST players and depth pieces at DL. And if he also becomes solid backup LB, even better.
I wanted 2 WRs from this draft just as anybody else. It seems that they felt differently, and apparently it wasn’t their priority. Maybe they really see something in Shorter or Shavers or Hamler we don’t know. I am ready to give them benefit of doubt. Last summer we all thought we are doomed at LB and look how it all changed thanks to Bernard.
And apart from not drafting 2 WRs I really like how they filled the holes. I’d prefer more BPA oriented approach, but at least Beane is really good to match value and need.
You are right they may not have been on their board. But Beane did say they "had a couple of chances to take a receiver" and decided "other positions were greater needs." I don't know which picks those were. But fair to make some assumptions.
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I think Kincaid could lead them in receptions. I don't see it in yards though.
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Jacksonville was the prefect place for him. He is a total JAG.
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6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
Gotta look at them targets. If Diggs has 110 targets is he an elite wr? I think this year people get that answer. Samuel has never played in a high powered passing attack. Samuel’s traits lend very well with Allen. Last half of the year Shakir had more yards similar number of catches as Diggs on half the targets. I dont see another player getting over 150 targets in the offense going forward. I dont see Diggs getting that target share in Houston either.
In his prime? Yes. Possibly not at this stage. But he was elite his last year in MIN on 94 targets. He was at his peak the best route runner in football.
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Just now, LeGOATski said:
Seems generous for Knox. He was barely a part of the passing game last year. 186 total yards in 12 games.
He tore wrist ligaments in game 2 and was never fully right thereafter.
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Just now, Virgil said:
But is that only because they keep restructuring every year into bonus money?
They keep moving money around the deals. It isn't quite as straightforward as simple restructures as the OTC post explains. But they keep making sure their guys are getting cash in their pockets because that is what the players care about much more so than AAV once the deal is signed. OTC predicts 2027 for a new Josh Allen deal. I might go a year earlier.... 2026 is the sweet spot IMO.
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43 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:
Gunner I like most of what you post. But don’t sugar coat it. Diggs was pretty bad the second half of last season. He could not get open down the field. He was dropping passes and looked disinterested.
I think he is pretty much done. A lot of guys have their day. But he isn’t balling out til he is 35 like a Larry Fitzgerald Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez. He was excellent for awhile, but not nearly in that pantheon.
The Bills did great to dump him on Houston for a 2nd round pick.
I am not sugar coating it. I am just not yet ready to say he is done. Maybe he was disinterested. Maybe he was nicked up. He'd definitely fallen out with Josh. He might be done. Or he might rebound in different circumstances. Neither of those would surprise me.
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37 minutes ago, Virgil said:
I see what you're saying, but you also need to take care of your own. Josh is now severely underpaid on the market and I think they need to give him a new deal after this season. He is easily the face of the franchise and we are nothing without him. He's barely been in the top 10 for his position and making 13 mil less per year that the top guys. As fans and the owners, we should not want him to have that deal.
See my reply to @HappyDays and the OTC link he provided. Josh is "making" top 3 or 4 money each year. AAV is AAV. It matters when you sign the deal and your agent can tweet out "best paid QB ever" etc. But year on year what matters is the money the Bills are actually paying him. While that money keeps being top 3 or 4 every year the less incentive there is for him to seek an extension.
Just now, Virgil said:Yes, Pat and Josh being 8th and 9th on this list should be adjusted after this season.
They are 8th and 9th in AAV. They are both top 3 in cash paid in 2024.
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5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I'm not sure about. The restructure was more complicated than what we're used to:
https://overthecap.com/inside-josh-allens-restructured-contract-with-the-bills
I don't quite understand all the particulars, but we didn't just reduce his cap hit this year while increasing cap hits in each successive year of his contract like most restructures. We instead did it in a way that lowered his cap hit both this year and in 2025, and OTC thinks it sets the stage for an extension in 2027.
There is still money they could kick. They don't want to kick it. And the reasons why are pretty well explained in that article. They want to allow themselves flex to keep moving money around to keep the cash number Josh gets each year up there in value who will stop him hankering after a new deal with a higher overall AAV. Because while the AAV matters the day you sign the deal it doesn't matter after that. What matters is what you are getting cash terms year on year and I made this point earlier in the offseason when people started talking about needing to extend him. Josh may now be way down the list on AAV but he remains top 3 or 4 each year on cash based on the moves the Bills keep making with his deal.
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28 minutes ago, uticaclub said:
I don't think you can restructure twice in one offseason
I actually don't know the answer to that. In theory I can't see why you couldn't but there may be a rule against it.
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Samuel. I reckon if he stays healthy he ends up around 1,000 maybe just short of it. I have something like:
Samuel 925
Kincaid 850
Shakir 800
Coleman 650 (but leads us in touchdowns)
Knox 400
Cook 350
That gets you to 3,975. Then you have you bits and pieces guys contributing another 300-500 between them.... running back 2, Morris, Hollins whoever else is a depth receiver.
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Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I don't think there is going to be one guy on this offense that defenses key in on every week like they did on Stef. Certainly not early in the year anyway. In a sense that might give us a little bit of an advantage early on in the season if Josh genuinely can spread the ball around. I expect at some point teams will revert to a "don't let Samuel win deep and force Kincaid to break off his routes short rather than threaten the seam." But it will take some time for defenses to workout how this offense is going to run and if we can hit the ground ready to roll in week 1 that might even be in our favour.