[What's the point of this team's philosophy?]

In fairness if you are going to build a bombs away offense you need Josh's deep ball to improve massively on where it was for most of 2023.

 

I do agree though, we are an offense at the moment that is kind of forced to play small ball by our personnel. 

[New Bills WR. Former Lion Quintez Cephus]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Thank you!! That’s been my issue. It is certainly a bigger issue for me because of my concerns with Coleman but it’s a bigger point. If you have Josh Allen, my belief is that you will win BECAUSE of him not WITH him. You need to do everything you can to build up his playmakers. You need to give him guys that can make plays on their own, besides for him. Give Josh someone that is going to catch a 6 yard slant and take it 65 yards. Instead, the philosophy is Josh will side step 2 rushers, roll right, make another guy miss, toss it 45 yards down the field, to some guy that make shake free 9 seconds into the play, in hopes of scoring. I think it’s a mistake.
 

Defensively, you need pass rush, LBs that can cover and smart DBs that don’t give up big plays. Defensively, the scheme is what you should win with. Offensively, you should win with the talent. The Bills have not adopted that philosophy. They’ve spent prime assets and big FA dollars on the defense. The irony is that the defense has largely been the same whether Dane Jackson, Levi Wallace and Christian Benford are back there as opposed to 1st rounders in Tre and Elam. They gave Von a zillion dollars and the pass rush is the same. They used a 2nd on Basham and are better off with Kinsgley Jonathan, etc…

 

They have spent too much on their Dline. That is what it comes down to. In terms of dollars and draft capital. Beane has made 21 picks on the first two days of the draft in his reign. The breakdown is:

 

QB - 1

RB - 3

TE - 2

WR - 1

OL - 3

DL - 6

LB - 3

DB - 2

 

There are only two numbers that stand out as egregious there to me - it is 1 receiver and 6 DL. Everything else in terms of resource allocation feels within the normal bounds of expectation for someone trying to build and maintain a strong roster over 7 seasons (probably 1 RB too many as well, but again not egregious). And then you add to it: Star, Jefferson, Butler, Addison, Trent Murphy, Daquan, Settle, Jordan Phillips, Ford, Austin Johnson..... and that is only the higher profile guys. Which other position has had so many reasonable established FA vets thrown at it in his time as GM? And people will say "ah that's McDermott's fault it is the rotation.... and I buy that to a point but I crunched the numbers after last season, will dig them out again, and other than KC (where 3 guys played 70%) the top 7 or 8 teams in the league were all broadly in line with the Bills on Dline rotations. The difference is they were almost all using one or two really low investment guys as part of it. We consistently have high picks and high dollars invested up there. And you don't need to take the tea leaves in any event. Just listen to Beane speak. He has said countless times he "makes no apologies" for investing there. It is just how he believes in building. 

 

[Your favorite moment / game of the old core of players]

The Saturday night game in Denver on route to our first division title. Just absolutely smoked them. It was a "you do not deserve to be on this field with us" performance that I in my fandom had never seen from the Bills before. 

[Fact vs Fiction: "Keon Coleman is not a separator"]

6 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

The age of these WRs is so much more relevant then people think.  
 

Pearsall turned 23.  In September of 2023.  He’s going to be 24.  
 

Legette is going to be 24 in January.  
 

In the last 5-10 years - Smith in Philly only one of note I can find at WR - drafted at 22 or older during their senior season - how many become a star in the NFL?  
 

Someone please find me one other then Smith that I missed.  Happy to be wrong.   
 

 

The rule of thumb with age is the younger the breakout season age - that’s a greater predictor of NFL success.  
 

Coleman had 800 yards and 60 catches at 19 years old at Michigan State.  
 

If Coleman played at FSU this year at age 21 you can bet he’d be a top 10 draft pick in 2025.  
 

And obviously where they end up matters.  
 

 

 

McClaurin is the other guy who was older when drafted that stands out. I take the point on the age thing. I just think it is correlation not causation. 

2 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

I bet you'd never guess what T.O. ran at the combine... 

 

And he was a 3rd round pick.... even way back then. The poster's point was even if Coleman had gone back to FSU and put up 1200 yards and 9 touchdowns running a 4.6 in the 40 he wouldn't have been a top 10 pick. He is right on that. Doesn't mean you can't be a good player. But 4.6 WRs are not getting drafted in the top 10. 

[Definition of a #1 receiver]

9 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I keep reading how we have to go find a true #1 WR.  That begs the question:  what is a #1 WR?  A guy that makes X catches a year?  Demands double teams?  What?

 

I ask because the team we keep trying to beat, the team who has won several Lombardis in recent years, doesn’t seem to have a #1 WR.  So how do they win?  They have a #1 TE.  Does that count?  Is so than can Kincaid count as ours?

 

To me you know you have a true number 1 when he is the guy that the other team is focussed on trying to take away. I always go back to the Vikings actually when Diggs and Thielen were there together and Thielen invariably had more production and long before he was a Bill I had arguments on this forum that Stefon Diggs was the #1 there (around the time they both got paid) because when you watched the games he was the guy teams were gameplanning to take away. They were happy to let Cousins have Thielen and move the chains they didn't want him to have Diggs and hurt people. 

 

Kelce has definitely been a #1 for KC. Gronk was a #1 for New England. You can win Superbowls without one though. But I think the collection of attributes you do have better be strong. The Flacco Ravens always spring to mind. They had Torrey Smith as a vertical burner and Anquan Bolden as a big contested catch possession receiver (and a good tight end whose name now escapes me). Smith and Bolden were both #2s but they had such complimentary skillsets that the combination was sufficient. That's what the "draft two, big guy and speedster" advocates in the run up to the draft were on about. If they had taken (for example) Coleman AND Frankin (say in the spot they took Carter) they still wouldn't have a #1 but they'd have two guys with complimentary skillsets. 

 

My issue with where we are is less that we don't have a #1. It is that second only to the Chargers we have the least proven WR corps in the entire league. 

[New Bills WR. Former Lion Quintez Cephus]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I disagree. This is prior to this draft so it moved some but:

 

 

Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense.

 

That’s not good enough. When you have a HOF QB, you should prioritize his weapons, not hope that he elevates role players. 

 

To this day in terms of draft value points spent on wide receiver in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft Sean McDermott (one year running the draft) has spent more than Brandon Beane (seven years running the draft). We have a Carolina drafter doing Carolina drafting. 

7 hours ago, Niagara Dude said:

All about Mcdermott,  worse draft and offseason in years

 

It's all about Beane.

[Beane on WR "We worked out a guy today we are going to end up signing"]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Chiefs have Kelce and Reid

We have Kincaid and Brady

 

Only in one of those situations is it acceptable to have league worst wideouts and expect good things

 

I wasn't making the argument that it is the same to be clear. But I do think in the interests of balance worth pointing out. I think the key for them was they had their best defense of the Reid era last year. We probably have a defense that is worse than before as well. 

 

And I definitely have not argued the Bills receiving corps is acceptable. I have been arguing for the last two years it wasn't when we had Diggs and Gabe. It definitely isn't now when it is Curtis Samuel and a rookie.

[Beane on WR "We worked out a guy today we are going to end up signing"]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I legit can't think of one of the top of my head

 

Maybe chargers?

 

I think they are the only one with less proven production at the NFL level than the Bills. Chargers 32. Bills 31. New England 30. 

 

What I will say is the Chiefs would have been 32 on this list for me last year and we saw how that worked out. I know they have an all timer at tight end but their most proven NFL receiver going into last year was MVS. 

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

As to the bolded, I would ask you, what is Beane's vision of the offense?  Does anyone truly know?  We do know that what he's said was different last year than it was this year.  

 

 

I don't think his vision has been coherent. 

[Still a giant hole at saftey?]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Well if that's true then why did Kincaid say that Bishop usually got the better of him in Coverage in practice?

 

According to you he would be getting smoked one on one?

 

I think you should actually go watch film of the player and stop reading media representations. Your assessment is WAY off with Bishop. He is super athletic and runs a 4.45 40, and can pretty much do it all

 

He is GREAT covering slots and tight end near the line. It is his the thing that stands out on his tape IMO. I do think that is slightly different to the question about him as a centre fielder. He has the physical attributes to do it. His tape isn't as good there though for me. That isn't me saying he sucks at it or anything to be clear. But personally I think as a rookie he is better served in the Poyer role than the Hyde one.

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

36 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Who knows.  None of us are privy to their personal discussions.  

 

Keep in mind, Beane is only here because of McD, you know that.  

 

I'll lean to the side that says if we had a Ben Johnson here, our drafts would look considerably different.  

 

 

 

Oh he is only here because McD hand picked him. No doubt. But Beane running the draft would always look like this IMO. Unless he had a Head Coach who had personnel control over him. 

 

Indeed in terms of draft value via the JJ chart McDermott spent more day 1 and 2 capital in his 1 draft in charge than Beane has in his 7. 

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

That's a bit of a reach Gunner.  While what you say may be true, even you have admitted that McD influences Beane's choices.  McD is pure D, zero O.  Even he's essentially admitted as much.  

 

The identity of this team is clearly D-First apart from Allen.  As you pointed out in a post after this, only 1 WR on days 1 & 2, and it's a guy that leans more like Davis than any other productive WR we've had.  

 

There is no strategy in building the O.  Consider, we threw Singletary and Moss overboard with the statements that we wanted to get faster on offense and highlighted Cook.  Then we turn around and draft all but a Moss clone in round 4 this season.  None of our offensive strategy makes much sense and there certainly is zero consistency from season to season, either in coaching or in methodology as to what our Offense is supposed to look like, ... other than for letting Allen be personally responsible for 75%+ of the production.  

 

That's at the heart of the pro/anti-McD debate.  On the anti side are those that think we should be focusing on offense like McBeane have focused on the defense.  That makes the most sense to anyone that knows football besides McD apologists.  It should be a no-brainer, when you have a generational talented QB like Allen, you do everything possible to build around that QB.  We've not done that.  In fact, we've done everything to build around McD's defense, often ignoring major needs on the Offense.  

 

I realize that you won't agree, that's because you're on the pro side, so that's understandable, just sayin' otherwise.  

 

We can argue and bicker, but not one of us has the ability to alter what happens.  LOL  

 

Go Bills!!  

 

 

 

I do agree thar we haven't prioritised offensive assets - wide receiver in particular even nearly enough. But I am 100% confident that would have been the case wherever Brandon Beane was the GM and whoever his Head Coach was. So long as Beane has personnel control he will prioritise defensive line, linebackers and running backs. It is Carolina 101.

[In hindsight, should we have traded for Diontae Johnson?]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Bump

 

I was a firm no when you asked before. I'm still a no. But a softer one. I just am not a big Diontae Johnson guy and never have been. Sloppy route runner with bad hands and a questionable attitude.

[Beane on WR "We worked out a guy today we are going to end up signing"]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s fair. None are very good. 

 

Nope. LAC is the worst "proven" group. But they have 3 new wildcards to throw at it. Ours is probably second least proven and we added one dart but a second tier one. New England is probably slightly more proven (never been a big Juju guy but do like Kendrick Bourne and that duo more proven than Samuel and Shakir) they have two low second high third tier new darts in Polk and Baker. It is much of a muchness.

[Beane on WR "We worked out a guy today we are going to end up signing"]

33 minutes ago, LEBills said:

yea Chark is the best guy left out there. Add him and one more vet that has actually produced in the league (OBJ, Boyd, Renfrow, etc) and I’ll feel better about WR for this year. I do not want Justin Shorter or Mack Hollins as next man up 

 

For what our need is I agree. Chark is the best fit. I actually wanted him last year.

12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Some guy on Twitter yesterday listed Washington, Carolina and New England. Carolina has Thielen, Legette and Dionte Johnson. That’s 3 guys all better than our best (plus Mingo). The Pats have Juju, Bourne, Douglas, Baker and KJ Osborn (who people here wanted). That’s not good but better. McLaurin is miles ahead of anyone we have. Even if the other guys are a bit of a wash, Washington is better because of McLaurin. It’s a harsh reality and people (especially homers) don’t want to hear it. The Bills WR room is bad and doesn’t have the diverse skillsets needed. They don’t have a vertical threat, they don’t have a great separator, and they don’t have anyone that has proven they can handle large volume (despite having 300ish targets from last year gone). 

Maybe not insurmountable but we are asking a guy like Shakir to have 2.5-3x as many targets, with significantly more defensive attention (and limited space to work with). That’s a big ask. 
 

Coleman is a guy, to quote Buddy Nix, “that’s open when he’s not.” That doesn’t feel like a high volume skill set. If he gets what Davis got, that would be a lot. You’re still looking for another 130 or so targets from the WRs. 
 

Call Samuel 90 for the sake of this. That leaves 40ish for the other scrubs (roughly what the scrubs got last year). 
 

It’s a big ask for guys that haven’t seen the attention that they’ll see now. The Bills have quality role players playing leading roles. 

 

I have us New England and LAC as the worst 3. I don't think ours is worse than theirs necessarily but it isn't better.

[What 2nd tier WR will be most productive?]

I think McConkey catches. I went Worthy yards thinking big plays but Legette and Coleman make some sense to me there as well. TDs I think Coleman.

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s why firing McD and keeping Beane won’t change roster building strategy, imo.

 

Agree unless they hired like a Shanahan or a McVay or someone who would have the authority to have final personnel say and use Beane as a glorified chief scout (although if you are doing that you'd be better getting someone else IMO).

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

7 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

If that’s what he believes in, then he’s gone against his own beliefs in the last two drafts. 

 

I mean its still one receiver in 7 years first two days.

[New Bills WR. Former Lion Quintez Cephus]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

I knew he sounded familiar this is the guy coming off the year long gambling suspension

 

 

 

Beane gambles on a gambler. Interesting.

[New Bills WR. Former Lion Quintez Cephus]

6 minutes ago, DJB said:

This fixes everything

 

edit no it doesn't

 

Cephus ran a 4.73 so he’s slower than Coleman .

 

For F sakes 

 

If you run sub 4.45 Beane tells you to ***** off to Miami. 

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Beane would rather sign a JAG fifth rounder from 2020 over drafting a fifth round WR in the great WR 2024 draft. 
 

Honestly, make it make sense. 

 

Gotta have another linebacker FC. A team that only plays 2 should be at least 6 deep at that spot at all times. He learned that from Gettleman.

[Still a giant hole at saftey?]

So I also see Cole as more of a Poyer replacement than a Hyde replacement. I don't love his timing as a centre fielder whereas his instincts and timing are much better when he is in closer in the box or covering closer to the line. But I do buy the "he is the most athletic safety on the team" argument.

 

Personally I think Edwards will start as the deep safety with Cole primarily in the box. But let's see how it shakes out.

 

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:

. 
    An idea/question: If Beane were to bring in a different HC with a different outlook, Does Beane keep drafting these “ high character “ guys or do we go in a different direction . I’m guessing the latter.

 

I am 100 and I mean 100% sure it would be the former. I have done the pick by pick anaylsis of the Panthers drafts during Beane's decade in senior front office positions. 3 receivers in the first two days in 10 years. Over a dozen DL in the same period. It is who he is. It is how he learned. It is what he believes in.

[This may be Beans best draft ever. I loved every pick]

3 hours ago, mrags said:

This. I remember when I used to fall for their crap too. Now it’s just the same old crap every year. While I do like some of the picks in this draft, I can’t help but feel like we are definitely rebuilding. Just sucks we’re dealing with this in the middle of having the best player that will ever wear a bills uniform. Such a waste 

 

While I definitely fall more on your side about this draft.... every team that has an elite QB for 10-15 years has to have at leadt one reset in that time. Because other position players don't age as well as Quarterbacks. New England had reload years with Brady. They still won their division and made the playoffs because the AFC East was a disaster zone. New Orleans had three 7-9 years in a row in the middle of Brees. Green Bay missed the playoffs twice mid-Rodgers. It is inevitable.

 

Personally I expect the Bills to make the playoffs this year. But I don't think it is a Superbowl window year. Though as I said last night 2022 was supposed to be that for the Chiefs and their rookies all balled out and they won the Superbowl anyway. 

[Beane on WR "We worked out a guy today we are going to end up signing"]

5 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Just based off production, give me Tyler Boyd: 1000+ yards in 2018 & 2019, 800+ yards in 2020 & 2021, 762 in 2022, and 667 in 2023. Seems a solid floor to me even if he is not the typical burner that would really balance out our WR room.

 

He is another guy best in the slot though. We need a guy who is at his best outside.

[Beane: "This team is in transition"]

6 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

   But Why Miller? There is no way McD didn’t have a large part to play in that choice. 
   The old We took a shot excuse. They should have surrounded Josh with more talent but the pissed the money away on an aging vet edge.

 

Of course McD had a part to play but Brandon Beane's constant focus on the DL isn't because of Sean McDermott. It is because of Dave Gettleman and Marty Hurney. 

 

Seriously, people should go and look at the guys Beane learned his trade under. It isn't McDermott's influence that he drafts loads of DL and LBs and RBs and almost no WRs. That is who Carolina were when he was in that front office moving through the ranks. 

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

"reloading" is "rebuilding" with a PR spin on it. It doesn't have to mean that you tear everything down to the floorboards, but they most certainly jettisoned most of the the core of the team this year. The rest of the old core will be dumped last year. The only players who might survive will be Dawkins, Allen, Oliver and possibly Milano.

 

I disagree on that. To me the difference is a reload is about moving on older expensive players. A rebuild you are giving away prime age players for assets - what the Commanders did last trade deadline was a tear down for a rebuild. Sell any asset on the roster build picks. Miami when they first ditched Gase and hired Flo did the same. They are rebuilds. That is the distinction IMO.