GunnerBill
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Posts posted by GunnerBill
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7 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Good stuff as always from you.
I think we'll keep 6 WR's this year. We kept 5 last season, but that was an anomaly based on wanting to keep 12 DL's (which was an anomaly in and of itself as the number is usually 10). Every other year under this regime they've kept 6 and multiple years they've kept 7. I think we sign another veteran WR post 6/1 and then it ends up being a camp battle for the last spot with Justin Shorter having the edge, all things equal.
Agreed on the DL. I think we'll keep 5 DE's and 5 DT's. Everyone you listed is safe IMO. Leaves one DT spot that I think goes to DeShawn Williams and one DE spot which will be a battle between Casey Toohill and Kingsley Jonathan. I believe Toohill takes it as his experience and production is better than Jonathan's and I think they view Jonathan as a Brandin Bryant type that lives on the PS until there's an injury and if they lose him, they don't really sweat it. Like a Bryant or Ankou, he seems to always find his way back. Linebackers - they could keep 6. But I lean towards them keeping 5, with either Nicholas Morrow or Baylon Spector being the odd man out. The number is usually 5, 6 seems a little high, given we only employ 2 LB's on the field.
When it comes to OL, the number is usually 9. I don't see us keeping 5 OT's. I think it really comes down to either Grable impresses and takes to it quicker than expected - or he's cut and Collins is here. I don't think they're particularly concerned that someone's going to sign the 204th pick in the Draft to their 53 otherwise. I don't see us keeping 9-10 of our 10 Draft Picks. I think it will be 8, which is already a really high number for us (Grable and Clayton being out unless they are undeniable). Hardy, although taken after Grable, has an edge because there's a wide open spot for backup Nickel and KR/PR. I see Dawkins, Brown, Van Demark, and then either Collins or Grable (with Gouraige and Doyle Wild Cards) at OT. And for interior, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Van Pran, and then almost definitely Anderson - but he'll battle with the likes of Clapp, Clayton, and Bills.
I see no route to Spector being cut. He is a core STer and they have lost guys in that room AND he played well when called upon at LB last year. Morrow is a bit more of a chance but I suspect he makes it.
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19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Beane already said he will be an X WR here, not a big slot. I think what some of you are missing on this pick is you have in your mind what you think they should do rather than focusing on what the kind of offense they are actually building. Everyone loves speed, even our FO. But, there is a very strong theme Beane has made very clear...he wants players with an edge, players who bring more swagger and toughness to the table. He isn't trying to build a track team out there, he is giving Allen options at various phases of the field, guys who can make that extra play or two that we have failed to make in the post season that has kept us from advancing.
They said Jefferson was a big slot too. They said Mike Evans wasn't fast enough to be on the outside. And I know that you felt DeAndre Hopkins was the best WR in football for a long time, yet Coleman's pro day 40 was faster than any 40 Hopkins ran. Even his slower 40 at the combine wasn't much slower than Hopkins and still faster than a lot of other WR1's that have had great careers in the NFL, and even HOF careers.
So I think everyones tendency to label him a big slot is selling him short. One thing being over looked is how Florida St used him too and what they asked him to do. He is going to get a whole other level of coaching on technique to take advantage of all that athleticism where he can win and separate in the NFL like all the other greats who ran similar or worse 40's than him.
I am not fixated on speed. My concerns on Coleman came way before the 40 time. And I said right after the Combine that I thought he could run faster than that. It is about separation for me, especially vertically, and while straight line speed is a factor in that it isn't the only one. Explosion and release package at the line both need work and his understanding of how to use leverage needs work. Can some of it be coached up - yes. But this is exactly my point. I think it needs coaching up and you are not gonna get him there by week 1 of year 1 IMO.
So comparing 40 times isn't the point here for me. All of the scouting report I prepared above on Coleman was pre-Combine. He was literally the 3rd guy in the entire class that I got through way back in January.
I still disagree on contest catches too. I think he needs to be a lot better there.
Can he become a dominant outside receiver in time? Possibly. Is that going to be where he is most able to have success early in the NFL? Not for me.
4 minutes ago, Chaos said:Josh doesn't struggle with decision making.
He did in 2023 I am afraid (compared to his own previous standard not compared to joe average NFL QB). His decision making regressed compared to the three previous seasons.
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The way I see it QB, RB and TE are set. I think Coleman, Shakir, Samuel and Hollins are probably in at receiver. One or two spots left to shoot for. Back of the OL room is a battle. If they want to keep Grable I think he might have to go on the 53.
On defense back end of the DL is a competition. I reckon the top 4 DTs - Ed, Daquan, Johnson and Carter are set. I think at edge Groot, AJE, Von are set and Solomon is probably in to protect their investment (unless he looks way out of his depth then watch for the old Brandon Beane redhsirt IR special). That leaves 1 or 2 spots there for the rest. Linebackers I agree they will keep 6 and they are pretty set. I think Hardy is a lock at corner though. He was drafted to be a backup corner and their primary returner. He is in. Lewis will make it but as the 4th safety behind Bishop, Rapp and Edwards. Hamlin will be cut.
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2 hours ago, PBF81 said:
Well, again, we'll see, but there are several false narratives surrounding Brady that will come to light this fall to at least some extent.
Otherwise, I decided to watch an every target video of Coleman this a.m. It's only a 22 minute video but took me a couple of hours to go through. Even by my low standards I'm not impressed, in fact, if anything it lessened, not heightened my expectations there. I see the hype even less after viewing it. And while drops are measured differently, I counted at least 15 dropped passes or at least passes that he should have caught but did not. We can go thru them if you like, game by game. Watch the passes against BC, what, three, four drops? Louisvile a few too.
The other thing that I noticed with him, that much like Watkins, he had a lot of bubble screens and gadget plays, which typically aren't effective in the NFL. So that's also worrisome. Otherwise, most of his catches were on shorter throws where he was wide-opened or screened, per above, and a bunch of very short crossing routes. I saw precious few catches that he made in coverage. His LSU game seems to stand out, but after that, it's difficult to find much that's impressive in his other 41 catches in his 536 yards in 11 other games otherwise. In fact, I see absolutely nothing that tells me that if he were to line up to go deep that any DC in the league would worry about putting more than one DB on him.
I can see his appeal on "highlight" videos, which would be short for this past season, like that one play where he hurdled the defender, but again, on a pass where he was open on deep coverage on 3rd-and-14, against Southern Miss, a Sunbelt team with one of the worst Ds in the NCAAs btw. But those are few. Then the second TD catch in the Clemson game. On the first he was WIDE open. That second catch against Syracuse was spectacular. The TD against Syracuse was against CB Isaiah Johnson, a senior, who went undrafted and according to NFL.com's draft profile would be on the bottom of a roster or a practice squad. So beating him wasn't particularly impressive. He won't see that coverage in the NFL with even a hint of regularity. One great route vs. Duke for about 30 yards. And another nice catch for a bunch vs. Duke. His TD catch vs. Wake Forest was nice, not spectacular, but nice, but WF had a horrid D too. His second TD against Wake was on Caelen Carson, drafted late in the 5th round.
So while watching that, I can see how while viewing just the above catches, one could come away thinking that he's some kind of steal and an Andre Johnson lite, but while watching the other 90% of his play, it makes me wonder why anyone sees anything in him at all worthy of a day 1 or even day 2 pick at all. He reminds me of Knox in terms of receiving skills and highlights. Just enough huge plays here or there to make you think there's more in there when there isn't.
About the biggest kick in the nads to Allen that we could give him would be using Coleman as he was used at FSU. Getting Watkins vibes here in fact, except that Watkins did in fact have speed.
Either way, the schtick is that he's got great hands and makes all these contested catches. Is that what you see while watching the video? I'd be interested in your take. Again, since there's not much else to do 'til the schedule release, I'd be happy to go thru game by game and itemize each target.
Sadly I agree with a lot of this. My scouting report on Coleman was basically (this is almost word for word my original notes on him).
1. Elite size and fast enough without top end speed - seems to move faster with the ball than when running routes.
2. Does not separate, espeically vertically. Lacks explosion in his get off which often results in him giving up leverage early in the down when outside.
3. Hands are okay but doesn't win enough contested catches for a guy with his size (my point there basically not a lot of "drops" in the true sense of the word but a lot of balls he could make a play on and reel in that he doesn't manage to)
4. Better uses his leverage and size when deployed from the slot and gets a free release. That allows him to dictate to the DB better.
5. YAC monster, surprisingly fluid when ball carrying for a guy his size and tough to bring down in the open field.
6. Excellent and willing run blocker.
7. Very young probably not yet fully developed physically. NFL coaching and conditioning could help his explosion which might give him a better chance in time outside.
Ideal usage: big slot receiver, some outside use in redzone and goalline. Developmental prospect as an outside receiver between the 20s.
Late 2nd round grade. (He ended up #50 overall on my board FWIW)
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If the Bills had a true #1 (still had the Diggs of two years ago for example) and were bringing Coleman in as a potential upgrade to Gabe I'd completely have got it. He has some similar traits and good reason to think his ceiling is higher. But if they bring this kid in stick him outside and expect him to be your #1 outside receiver early I fear you are setting him and your team up to be disappointed.
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2 hours ago, Chaos said:
Josh is not the limiting factor on spreading the ball around. Multiple different people having the ability to get open is the limiting factor on spreading it around. If just throws for 4300 yards again this season and all of those yards to only 1 guy, I would be fine with that.
I think is a factor he isn't the factor. This kind of offense where you don't have a single guy who you can rely on to always be open puts an extra premium on decision making. We have to get better than 2023 Josh to give that a shot of working. If it doesn't it won't really be Josh's fault. It will be Beane's fault for giving him the talent he has given him either because the guys couldn't get open or because if Josh again struggles at times with a decision maker it will prove why giving him those elite talented weapons to make those decisions easier matters.
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2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
True, but it could also take a while for ourselves to figure it out with the advantage tilting not to our opponents in the early going.
Unlike you and others I'm far from convinced that Brady's what we need.
We will see.
The schedule can't come out soon enough. LOL
It might take us a while. It is depending on us hitting the ground running. I'm not convinced Brady is the answer. I do think he will be better than Dorsey who I was not a fan of for this team and I do think he was one of the better available options. But ultimately the proof will be in the pudding.
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1 minute ago, PBF81 said:
It'll be interesting, out entire offense is going to be interesting.
The skill position lineup seems to be a lot closer to what it was in 2019 than what it was before Diggs arrived.
Shakir didn't draw double coverage last year. Will any of our WRs command double coverage.
I don't think there is going to be one guy on this offense that defenses key in on every week like they did on Stef. Certainly not early in the year anyway. In a sense that might give us a little bit of an advantage early on in the season if Josh genuinely can spread the ball around. I expect at some point teams will revert to a "don't let Samuel win deep and force Kincaid to break off his routes short rather than threaten the seam." But it will take some time for defenses to workout how this offense is going to run and if we can hit the ground ready to roll in week 1 that might even be in our favour.
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4 minutes ago, Chaos said:
My observation was on the rare occassion Allen actually forced a ball to Diggs, it was because Josh so no one open, and played as if he thought Diggs was his best option. I would be curious to see videos or photos of plays where Allen obviously passed up an open reciever to throw to a covered Diggs.
While the tape definitely showed Diggs struggled to get open deep down the stretch in the short and intermediate areas he was still our most open receiver and by a fair amount. I didn't see a ton of evidence of Josh forcing it him.
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16 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
10 is the absolute best case scenario
9 or less is more likely. If Rodgers stays healthy, that team wins the division, and the Bills are on the outside looking in
I just don't trust Aaron Rodgers' motivation. I do think the Jets are the threat to the Bills in the division but I think Aaron is already retired in his head. If the Jets get off to a hot start they are a threat. But when adversity hits I think he will check out very quickly.
I have the Bills winning 10 or 11. That could be enough for the division. It will likely be enough for the playoffs. I think the Jets could be a playoff team. I don't think Miami will be because I think their defense is gonna suck and while they will put up points against bad teams they will stall against good teams as per usual.
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2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
I'm ashamed to admit my first thought was the same. When he's got his arms up while seated on a bench in the weight rack. Looking in shape but not possessing the arm length of a 6' man.
It was while he was explaining why he trains without gloves on for me. And once I saw them I couldn't unsee them. It was like "why has this grown man borrowed his arms off a 14 year old boy?"
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I just watched it. Look Shakir is a good dude and I appreciate how hard he is working to be better..... but all through his workout I was just thinking "man how short are that dude's arms?" He must have someone tie his laces for him.
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1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:
I see him on the PS for the year or poachedHe won't get through a year on the PS. I am pretty sure on that. If they want to keep him they need to find a way to get him on the roster. Even if he makes it the the PS at cutdowns he wont last there for the year.
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I think it means a 10 or 11 win season and a year where they go with more young guys over vets on those close roster decisions (whether that is about the 53 or about who starts on gameday).
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I don't think MIN would have taken Penix from the intel I heard but they were sufficiently comfortable with Penix to not be willing to pay a steep price for McCarthy. In the end of course they did trade up for McCarthy. The Jets did the old one pick double bluff.
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12 hours ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:
I’m a big Ohio State fan so I had my eye on McCarthy all year. He has good character and athleticism.Do you feel that he has the arm talent to make it in the NFL? Maybe he just didn’t get to throw it enough in that offense, but I just don’t see the evidence of an NFL caliber passer. Especially when compared with some of the other top guys.
Oh good we need more Ohio State fans around here...... 🤣
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4 hours ago, Pete said:
we should receive a 4th and a 5th for Gabe and Floyd, if the NFL does not mother***** us again. I heard on WGR that the FA period where comp picks are calculated, ended last night. No signings going forward count against comp pick formula
1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7 LFG Beane and Buffalo!
We'd only have one 5th and two 6s but no 7th. Our original 5 belongs to the Eagles, via Houston as part of the Diggs trade. Our 7th was swapped for NYG's 6th in the Boogie trade. So if the comp formula does work out for us then I make it:
one 1st
two 2nds
one 3rd
three 4ths
one 5th
two 6ths
10 picks total.
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4 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:
It was a deep tackle class this year … I would have liked to have seen them take a more experienced guy than the two projects they took at the end … neither will be ready in 12 months for a starter role…
Grable is still a work in progress but he is pretty experienced. He has 43 college starts at left tackle. Okay they were at Jacksonville State and UCF but I think he could be in the mix for a starting role in 2025 if they can keep him and develop him. My bigger question is how he translates to the right side.
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37 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:
Not throwing a tantrum, don't really care. But "a handful of fans" "don't understand the system"? Really? The Bills Front Office thought they were getting a 3rd, so did all the pundits/experts & every fan (never heard anyone say different beforehand). If you watched Beane's comments on it, he said he was surprised and pissed about it (as he should have been). He said they checked w/ the league multiple times & were told they were on track for a 3rd. He said it changed some things bc he was relying on having that 3rd rounder when he traded away his 3rd for Rasul Douglas. He also mentioned it again post first round when he said he was glad they could recoup the 3rd in the trade back in the 1st w/ KC. I'm not advocating changing their philosophy. I don't need to, Beane's a smart guy he adapts & isn't going to be taken by surprise again. I'm pointing out the comp pick spots aren't 100% predictable & therefore 100% reliable when planning, that's just a fact.
The bolded is true. but that is NOT what you originally said, is it? You said "comp picks are fake"
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11 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:
Sort of random observation but today there has been a big shift in OTC data. Mack Hollins, who was previously way below the threshold, is now listed exactly as cutoff player at 670 (I am not sure, but he was listed as something like 710th or so before).
This results in Bills losing 5th round pick for Floyd, and leave us with 4th round for Gabe Davis only.
I know that after Tremaine debacle these unofficial sources need to be taken with a grain of salt, but I still find it interesting.
Hopefully once all is said and done Hollins will fall under the line and we'll get 4th and 5th.
https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks
Hmm. It's not showing that now for me. Possibly a glitch yesterday? He is close though because Edwards does count at $2.8m, so Hollins at $2.6m is only just the wrong side of the line.
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7 minutes ago, section122 said:
After having to start klein last year i think it was clear lb was a need.
I know many people wanted to double up at wr but when you go down the line of kincaid, coleman, shakir, samuel, cook, and knox, you are talking about someone fighting to be the 6th target at best.
Lastly the Bills have a 5th round dart throw at wr on the roster already in shorter. I don't know that they wanted another late round developmental guy.
Not to me it wasn't. If any single team in the NFL is down 3 or 4 guys at a position they are starting someone like an AJ Klein. It sucks that we had a cluster injury at a position but we did. Thats like saying the 49ers needed a QB because if what happened in the NFCCG in 2022.
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37 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:
Thanks for your thoughts Gunner, appreciated as always.
It seems pretty obvious that you didn’t like Ulofoshio pick, you were unusually vocal about it in other threads 😊
Two things.
1. As for WRs, you are the one who says Bills have 100 or so players on their board. So maybe Thrash just wasn’t on their board at all and Washington was rated way lower than Ulofoshio. Then they made the right choice. I don’t want them to take flyer on WR just for the sake of taking flyer (or actually I do want, but not at all costs).
2. I have no idea about the player, but if they think he could for example play Matakevich’s role in ST, and be as good as him, that alone makes him a good pick. We need to fill these roles with cheap rookies and not pay $3M a year for ST players and depth pieces at DL. And if he also becomes solid backup LB, even better.
I wanted 2 WRs from this draft just as anybody else. It seems that they felt differently, and apparently it wasn’t their priority. Maybe they really see something in Shorter or Shavers or Hamler we don’t know. I am ready to give them benefit of doubt. Last summer we all thought we are doomed at LB and look how it all changed thanks to Bernard.
And apart from not drafting 2 WRs I really like how they filled the holes. I’d prefer more BPA oriented approach, but at least Beane is really good to match value and need.
You are right they may not have been on their board. But Beane did say they "had a couple of chances to take a receiver" and decided "other positions were greater needs." I don't know which picks those were. But fair to make some assumptions.
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I think Kincaid could lead them in receptions. I don't see it in yards though.
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Jacksonville was the prefect place for him. He is a total JAG.
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6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
Gotta look at them targets. If Diggs has 110 targets is he an elite wr? I think this year people get that answer. Samuel has never played in a high powered passing attack. Samuel’s traits lend very well with Allen. Last half of the year Shakir had more yards similar number of catches as Diggs on half the targets. I dont see another player getting over 150 targets in the offense going forward. I dont see Diggs getting that target share in Houston either.
In his prime? Yes. Possibly not at this stage. But he was elite his last year in MIN on 94 targets. He was at his peak the best route runner in football.
Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I still think on the Michigan State tape there are balls he fails to make a play on because he is in the wrong position having given up leverage outside and so what looks like it is a contested catch shouldn't have been.