GunnerBill
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Posts posted by GunnerBill
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I did explain why this and the Araiza case are different, even though I think Araiza got a bit of a raw deal, about 8 pages ago. For some reason the mods deleted it.
But essentially, case where criminal investigation is live vs one where it is concluded without charge and case where the player was open and honest with the Bills vs one where the player misled the team somewhat.
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25 minutes ago, balln said:
Never know what beane and the bills ACTUALLY knew or discovered. I imagine the player and agent likely sugar coated it. Unless they talked to the girl (no way anyone from nfl or bills did) or had access to her statements she gave to police or campus officials (I doubt it) then I think it’s highly probable t what the bills knew and today’s lawsuit with details are not the same.
I bet there’s some surprise today at OBD / Beane with these details. just most likely scenario
The good thing Beane did was sort of pin it on the league -“ well if it was an issue then the nfl wouldn’t have him at the combine or at the draft.” Good move
From people I heard from Hairston was actually very open and front footed about it with teams pre-draft. That doesn't mean he didn't do anything wrong but I think teams felt like they did at least have his full side of the story.
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1 minute ago, FireChans said:
I cannot disagree more.
Their defense got a MASSIVE upgrade going from Del Rio to Phillips. Their defensive DVOA was like the best by a SB winner in a decade (slightly better than the 13 Seahawks even) despite being middle of the road the year previous. They were first in yards and points per drive, after being 13th in points per drive the year previous.
The offense took a significant step back because Peyton lost his arm seemingly overnight but that wasn't schematic.
In 2014, they allowed 24 points to a flawed Indy team that eventually got stomped in the AFCCG, 4 points less than their season average.
In 2015, the Broncos defense was holding teams to 10-20 points below their season averages, despite their offense being completely anemic. They didn't have over 200 yards passing or 100 yards rushing more than ONCE in the entire postseason.
If they kept Fox and Del Rio, they win 8ish games and then everyone is fired and Peyton retires very sad.
My take is less that they'd have won the Superbowl had they kept Fox and more that they really shouldn't have won it with Kubiak. They were not a Superbowl standard winning team. Not even close IMO. The best team doesn't always win. I don't think the Broncos were a top 5 team the year they won the title. Sometimes you just get the breaks. Luck plays a major part. It is what it is - the history books will say the coaching change worked. I am sure that is the real truth of it.
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8 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Well this may be an unfair question because its so long after the fact, but did you think John Fox "deserved" to be fired in Denver after 2014?
Nope. I wouldn't have fired him. I also think the difference it made is overblown. The 2013 and 2014 Broncos were better per DVOA than the 2015 Broncos that won a Superbowl. They changed coach, got worse, but got a couple of breaks in the post season and won the title.
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8 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
Why are you assuming that coaches like Nate Hackett and Adam Gase would have the same winning percentage as McDermott?
Again this "what would McDermott be with QBX" or "what would Allen by with HCY" are hypotheticals. It also depends heavily who are you replacing them with. Is it McDermott with a 5th-12th type QB? Or a 13th to 20th type QB? Or a bridge at best guy? Is the mythical head coach replacement for McDermott a proven NFL HC? Is it a hotshot coordinator or is it a guy who you seriously consider the basic competence of - see Hackett etc.
I just don't know that it is a very fruitful line of argument. Quarterback matters more than Head Coach. We all know and accept that as a truism of the NFL and the Bills will always have a chance to be good with Josh Allen. But the Saints had four losing seasons in five years during the peak of a future first ballot HoF QB and a likely future HoF HC. The NFL is just way to complex and way to nuanced to ever boil down to 1+1 always = 2.
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9 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Do you think our odds of winning a Superbowl are worse?
I think like your first sentence - they are unlikely to change a ton IMO. We would remain in the same stratosphere of championship contenderness (made up word).
Though to be clear my argument for keeping McDermott has never been a "better the devil you know" argument. I think that is bad reason to retain a coach. Equally I think "look at this shiny thing over here I could have" is a bad reason to fire a coach. My view across all coaches and all sports is you fire a coach based on their performance when you believe he deserves to be fired not based on who is or isn't available to potentially replace them.
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46 minutes ago, FireChans said:
So in conclusion, I think the odds of firing McD and AT LEAST being in the same stratosphere as we are today is VERY VERY high. I think the odds we win a SB are better than they are now. I think the odds of firing McD and going back to the drought is effectively 0.
I agree with the first sentence and the third sentence. I don't agree with the middle one.
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7 minutes ago, uticaclub said:
I never stated "what might have happened." Instead, I simply excluded the games that McDermott coached against 7-seed teams that Marty did not coach and win against, which could inflate a playoff record. When the argument is that McDermott is far superior to Schottenheimer, I will present information that counters that claim. You could have argued, "Well, we would have had a bye instead of playing a 7-seed," which would lead to a different discussion. However, you seem intent on dismissing anything that contradicts your narrative and telling others how to use a message board, even when they are being respectful.
No I'm not. I'm saying creating stawman "what ifs" does nothing to further the discussion either way. Whether they are including things that didn't happen or excluding things that did. The record is the record.
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1 minute ago, FireChans said:
Galaxy brain take is that BB converted the 2019-2021 Pats as a power running quick game offense, which was ahead of the curve based on what we saw in 2024.
I don't buy that. That team was so undermanned from a pure talent perspective. It wasn't just schematic or style. It was talent. Bill had failed to keep up with identifying the right guys to play in the 2020s NFL. He actually coached them up pretty good still. The Mac Jones year was in his top 5 coaching jobs as Pats HC imo.
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3 minutes ago, uticaclub said:
So what did I say that was didn't actually happen? Were the road records incorrect? Was McDermott's record against non 7 seeds incorrect? If you come up with stats and I come with other stats, you can't discredit me because it goes against your narrative.
Nope. You were talking about what might have happened if he hadn't played 7 seeds in the wildcard rounds. But he did. That's what happened.
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6 minutes ago, SoTier said:
I think the catch for most NFL teams with Belichick is that he would want control of personnel, and NE's slow decline when he was in charge of personnel proved that he's not very good at the long-term building and managing of a championship roster. He is a master strategist, a genius at adjusting to unexpected situations, and a motivator, but he's not a particularly good gm type. He didn't build the great rosters that the Patriots fielded early on in NE's domination alone; he had a couple of GMs who did a lot of the leg work on selecting players, managing the cap etc. For that reason, I wouldn't want him as the Bills HC.
He did build the roster for the 2nd dynasty though.... and that was a good roster. Their drafting late 00s early 10s was good and that is when he built the core of the team that won the 3 Superbowls vs Seattle, Atlanta and LA. The drafting fell off in about 2013/2014... which does suggest the league had passed him by a bit. I think the rule changes really started to accentuate the physical talent over the football smarts again and Bill didn't really keep up with that. He still wanted to draft guys who work hard, understand their assignment and do their job and then coach them to within an inch of their lives.
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2 minutes ago, uticaclub said:
Isn’t a point of the message board to discuss hypothetical scenarios with other people that have a similar interest in the team? What are we suppose to discuss?
Stuff that you know, actually happened. Or stuff that might happen in the future. Not create narratives about stuff that we know didn't happen in the past so that we can rewrite history to support out own personal biases.
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1 hour ago, Gregg said:
I know it's not happening as McDermott isn't getting fired anytime soon.
Even if he were the Bills are not hiring Belichick.
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39 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:
The closest ( albeit not perfect) comp we have to Josh is Cam.
I reject this entirely.
6 minutes ago, uticaclub said:If the higher seed was always better the Super Bowl would just 1 seed vs 1 seed. Were the 6th seed Steelers better than the 3rd seed Ravens?
Marty was 1-6 on the road in the playoffs, Sean is 0-5. When is McDermott going to pull of his playoff upset?
This is ridiculous. Arguing about what McDermott's record would be if he had played games that never took place is utter madness as an argument for firing him.
We all need to stop the "what if something that hasn't happened or didn't happen had happened" game. And I say that on both sides of the argument. That advances nothing any further.
There is a legitimate disagreement about how the record of what has happened in reality should be viewed. That's fine. You are entitled to your view even if I disagree with its conclusion. But all this hypothetical web weaving is stupid.
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14 minutes ago, Gregg said:
I have said this before but if the Bills fired McDermott, then I would hope Terry would call Bill. Bill knows how to manage the game much better than Sean. You don't get to 9 Super Bowls by accident. He is a much better DC than Sean. What has been the Bills biggest problem in the playoffs. DEFENSE. Some may say it was Brady as the main reason they won. The Pats defense stepped up bigtime in many playoffs' games including the Super Bowls. Holding the Rams to 3 points. Making adjustments to shutout the Falcons after they built a big lead that allowed Brady and the offense to come back. The INT at the goal line to beat the Seahawks. Allen is a lot closer to Brady than Mac Jones. So....
Bill + Josh = Lombardi. IMHO. Bill does have an opt out in his contract with UNC to come back to the NFL.
That isn't happening. There is zero chance.
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50 minutes ago, Gregg said:
I wanted him gone after 13 seconds but I knew that wasn't going to happen as they had a great year despite that painful loss. I thought his seat would get hot after the blowout loss to the Bengals in the playoffs, but it didn't. At this point it would take a horrible season something like 7-10, 6-11 and maybe Terry thinks about making a change. Otherwise, I don't see him getting fired if the team keeps making the playoffs.
I think the seat is warmer than it was but I don't think he is under any immediate threat.
I can respect wanting him fired for 13 seconds. It was a huge failure. I don't put the Bengals loss on him it was squarely on the players and I even then I cut them some slack. They started slow and with everything that year they had no mental reserves to respond. They all looked vacant and lifeless. To put that on coaching you almost need to believe McDermott told them to play like that. The Bills have been beaten by more than 1 score twice in like 3 and a half years and that was one of them. It was an anomoly.
But if, like me, you are willing to give one mulligan for 13 seconds then he doesn't get a second one. Missing the playoffs unless Josh is hurt is a second huge failure and he'd have to go. Likewise losing a playoff game to a non-elite QB. Likewise any playoff defeat whatsoever that has a 13 second like blunder.
As for where Pegula is... the regime might survive a winning season where they miss the playoffs at 9-8. Possibly. If they have a losing season they are toast. They might survive a narrow playoff loss to a non-elite QB on the road. At home? Riskier. Another blunder like 13 seconds I think Terry fires McDermott. In that situation and only that situation do I think there is a chance the coach goes and the GM stays.
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2 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Take it another step further.
If Miami and Jacksonville don’t implode week 18 in 2023, the Bills miss the playoffs. With Josh Allen at QB.
No one is forgetting the TT year. the point is that McD’s claim to fame is sneaking into the playoffs once with a crappy QB. Which is exactly what Stefanski has done.
not surprising though. Bills fans have an unhealthy attachment to that event. There was a hefty number who didn’t want to trade TT because “he broke the drought” and “who knows if the next QB is better, he could be worse!”100% of them are still posting the exact same noise about McDermott.
I'd have fired him if they missed the playoffs in 2023 and I said as much after the Denver loss. Missing the playoffs with Josh Allen is fireable.
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2 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:
Jonnu makes more sense after seeing this today
https://x.com/TomPelissero/status/1940066374740799849?t=ArZhRrCWlhNkK1WlXlihzg&s=19
It doesn't to me. McDaniel underused and then let Gesicki go because he couldn't block which is a requirement of a tight end in the Shanny offense. They spend a year with nothing at the spot then find their way to Smith who is a nice scheme fit - a true two way tight end - who has a career year. Then they trade him and bring in a retired converted wide receiver who can't block.
Baffling.
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23 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:
Let me be clear. I respect your football knowledge quite a bit and admire your posts. You also seem like a nice person. That said, just because you say something "multiple times" does not necessarily make what you say factual. If that was the case, everybody could say something again and again and be 100% correct just by virtue of doing so.
We will never agree on this topic, nor is there any real way of finding out the truth. It's all cool.
I am not defending Beane at all! I am putting the blame on McDermott for continuing the Bills tradition of too much focus on defensive backs, despite other bigger needs. This started with the trade of the Mahomes pick to the Chiefs and extends all the way to this season, when instead of providing Josh more weapons, he drafted another first round corner.
There is a way of finding the truth. Speak to people who have been in the building. Which I have done.
4 minutes ago, Logic said:Some days I look at the job Beane has done as GM and think: the Bills have been one of the top three to five teams in football for five years straight now, he MUST be doing a good job. You don't have as much consistent success as the Bills have had in this league under Beane's tenure without some good roster building.
Other days I look at the job Beane has done as GM and think: Not enough difference makers drafted. Too many singles and doubles, not enough home runs. Bills never seem to be the most talented roster in the playoffs.
Some days I think Beane deserves a large share of blame for the Bills' playoff failures. Other days I think the coaching is more to blame. There's nuance and there are layers. At the end of the day, I'm not sure Beane is a good enough GM to get the Bills over the hump, but I also don't have much faith in a BETTER GM walking through the door at One Bills Drive if Beane were fired tomorrow.
As to whether or not Monson's assertion is accurate and Beane is sensitive: I really don't care. PFF's analytics department is great. Their editorial department stinks. The credibility of the former lends undue credence to the credibility of the latter. Guys like Monson speak with the authority and arrogance of someone who is really in the know, but most of them are nothing more than math majors -- at best. So right off the bat, I'm tempted to doubt anything that the Sam Monsons of the world think.Sam Monson is no longer at PFF. He is at 33rd team now.
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4 minutes ago, buffblue said:
I don't think Watson is even a franchise QB. So he can't be the worst according to what the OP asked
The reason I exclude Watson is I don't think anyone, including the Cleveland top brass thinks he is a franchise QB anymore.
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33 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:
Yeah, so I guess that in 2022 when the Bills gave up a 4th round pick to move up two spots for Kaiir Elam, this trade too was orchestrated by Beane. After all, the fact that McDermott was a defensive back in college and a former assistant secondary coach played no part in this glorious trade, or the one which handed the Chiefs Mahomes and numerous Super Bowl wins. He was olly too willing to let Beane, a communications major in college, put his player expertise to work.
Gotcha.
I will however concede the fact that Beane being a communications major does help him at his job. He is able to clearly ask McDermott, "who should we draft," and clearly respond, "yes sir."
Yes, the trade up for Elam was orchestrated by Beane. But nobody is saying McDermott played no part. The relationship is just not as you portray it. And for some reason despite being told this multiple times you continue to insist on it.
And did you not read what I said about the Mahomes trade? That trade was orchestrated by McDermott. He ran the Bills 2017 draft - he was de-facto GM at that point. He relinquished that when his guy was brought in to fulfil that role.
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8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Concern, I understand.
But we aren't the offense we had last year. We're already better at WR, and Kincaid being healthy could very well be another major step upwards. It's possible Josh could keep having problems working together with him as he did last year, but I'd guess it's not the way to bet.
Remains to be seen. I am not sold yet that we are better at receiver. Maybe we are. Maybe we are worse. Maybe we are the same talent wise but different enough in style that we find more explosive pass plays. I hope you are right, because if that is true it might make for an easier Cook decision next summer (on the basis he doesn't sign a deal this summer).
8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:And while we didn't create many explosives last year, we did keep drives going without explosive plays, really well.
Again, I would love to get Cook back. But I understand totally that they seem to have a value that they're willing to give, and that they don't want to go beyond it. I myself simply wouldn't give $15M per year.
We did keep drives going well. But that is a hard play to live drive in and drive out for 17 games plus playoffs. And even in terms of turning what was really 4 or 5 yards into 9 or 10 Cook is among the best in the NFL over the past two years. He was also THE best in the entire league last year at yards lost in tackles for loss - he was tackled for a loss just 21 times (second fewest among qualifying backs behind Jahmyr Gibbs) and those 21 losses cost us just 37 yards - the lowest in the NFL among qualifying backs. It isn't JUST that Cook can break a big one. He is critical part of their everyone eats small ball offense too.
As to the contract, I agree the Bills and Cook are obviously apart on the overall value of the package right now. We don't know that is just AAV, it might be, but my strong suspicion is it is as much about length and guarantees. There are $15m per year deals I'd do, given his value currently to this offense. But he'd have to be willing to leave some team flexibility on the table in terms of guarantees and contract length for me to get there. I'm a don't pay running backs guy. But he is clearly the second best offensive weapon on the team behind Josh Allen right now and unless this O can prove to me it is built different in 2025 then my instinct is you have to try and find a way to retain what he brings without tying yourself to an expensive running back contract for the longer term.
8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:Oh, and I'd disagree with calling Singletary a plodder. He wasn't. He also wasn't nearly the breakaway threat Cook is. But he was terrific at making the first guy miss and turning 2 yard gains into five yarders. You look at his 4.7 YPC, with an OL that wasn't as good as the one we've got now, and it's not reasonable to call him a plodder. Not nearly the long threat Cook is but a good solid back.
His 4.7 average is bumped up somewhat by 5.1 ypc as a rookie when he did not, for the most part, start and we have seen sometimes being just a change of pace guy inflates those numbers. He is a plodding backup level talent. Cook is way better at making the first guy miss and way better at getting 5 or 6 yards out of 2 yard holes. Because his vision is on a different planet to Singletary's. Singletary has had three starting jobs in the NFL now. The Bills let him walk after his rookie deal and replaced him with Cook, the Texans and the Giants ended up benching him for rookies. He is who he is. A plodding backup.
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17 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:
If this is the case (which I certainly do not doubt), why would anyone be willing to believe that he has the final, or even an equal say to McDermott wrt the draft? I really wish I could understand this.
So who takes the blame for trading away Mahomes for peanuts and drafting a corner?
On the former - because that is how it works. Beane isn't a scout but he is the General Manager. He takes the views of his personnel staff, he takes the views of the coaches and he factors all that in to how they build the board and then the selections he makes. Howie Roseman didn't come up the scouting route either. Not all General Managers do. Indeed some of the best modern day GMs don't there is a lot more to it than that.
On trading away the pick used for Mahomes - Sean McDermott takes the blame for that. He ran the 2017 draft. He didn't draft him away for peanuts though. It was pretty much BANG on the Jimmy Johnson chart value and the Bills actually won the trade (to the value of a 4th round pick) by the Rich Hill chart. You can think they could have got more if you want. Maybe they could. But they didn't give it away for peanuts.
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8 hours ago, NoSaint said:
they might not like you muchProbably read his posts.... 🙃
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Brandon Beane "might be the most sensitive GM in the entire NFL"?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Tre was better than good. He was elite for 3 years in Buffalo. And he has only been away a year. 2 teams but one year.
That said no question in a redraft TJ Watt goes higher. Elite pass rusher > elite corner.