BLeonard

If the Bengals win, they would overtake the Bills if the Bills were to lose to the Patriots based on the SOV tiebreaker. The Bills would also lose the opportunity to have a neutral site game if they met the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, even if the Bengals lost and the Bills held onto the 2 seed. Even with a Chiefs win today, the Bills have plenty to play for tomorrow.

Correct. They haven't said anything about the seeds changing and they've made it clear that Cincinnati is the North Champions regardless, so I'm gonna assume that Baltimore would still be the 6 seed and have to go on the road.

Because, if the Chiefs lose and the Bills win, the Chiefs would be 13-4, while the Bills would be 13-3. Because the Bills won the H2H tiebreaker, even if you count the Bengals game as a loss, the Bills still would have finished ahead of the Chiefs. The neutral site scenarios are only for potential games that could have had a different host had the Bills/Bengals game been completed.

Well, it won't be Indianapolis: https://fox59.com/indiana-news/indianapolis-turns-down-nfls-request-to-host-afc-championship-game/

If JAX, CLE and NYJ all win, New England still gets in even if the Bills beat them. If the Bills lose and Cincy wins, the Bengals host the Patriots and the Bills host the Ravens in the Wild Card round.

Especially with the craziness this year. I've already gotten a few texts among the lines of "You're bringing the paper Sunday, right?" "The paper" being the scenarios charted out, which gets folded into a piece of origami to hide the scenarios of teams that lose throughout the day.

Cincinnati would host in that scenario. They would hold the SOV tiebreaker. Bills would be the #3 seed and host Baltimore. Cincy would be the #2 and host New England. Neutral fields I've heard about are Atlanta or Indianapolis. Detroit is getting new turf, so that's out, as they've already started the process.

Probably the easiest way, lol However, I usually get tasked with explaining the scenarios to most everyone in the Bills Backers group at the bar I go to, so I kinda prepare in advance. As of now, there are 128 seeding scenarios left. By the time the Bills kick off, it'll be down to 32, so much easier to navigate then, lol

If the Chargers win, yes.

Coin flip has zero to do with the Bills. Only between Baltimore and Cincinnati if the Ravens win Sunday and they'd meet in the first round of the playoffs.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist or anything, but I will say this: Kansas City losing and the Bills winning this weekend makes a good chunk of their issues regarding seeding a moot point. Yep. If the Bills get the 1 seed, they will have homefield throughout, regardless of who they play.

From what I've read, the top potential sites are Indianapolis and Atlanta. Detroit is replacing their turf after the season and since they know the Lions won't be at home for the playoffs, they've already started, so Detroit is out: https://www.si.com/nfl/lions/news/lions-move-up-field-turf-replacement

Correct. Long story short, if the Bills win, they will only play outside of Orchard Park if they face the Chiefs in the AFC Championship and that'll be a neutral site game.

Found this elsewhere and figured it'd be worth posting, so the question of who gets what seed under X result can be consolidated into one, easy to read spot.

Read the bolded. The Bills and Bengals will have each played 16 games. Thus, the participating teams will have played an equal number of games.

Nope. The game was cancelled, so it in effect does not exist. As a result, the Bills would finish 13-3, while the Bengals would be 12-4. You have to look at it as if the Bills and Bengals weren't scheduled to meet at all this season. There is no tiebreaker because there is no tie. The Bills have the better record, so they host.

Long story short here is, as long as the Bills win Sunday, they will not go on the road, unless they play KC and even that would be at a neutral location. IF KC loses Saturday and the Bills win, the Bills could host KC in the AFC Championship in Buffalo.

The only way it would be at a neutral site is if the Bills make it as the road team. Regardless of what else happens, if the Bills win Sunday, they will not go on the road, except if they play the Chiefs and that would be at a neutral site.

So, long story short for the Bills: KC loss + Bills win = Bills #1 Seed - Bye and HFA KC win + Bills win OR CIN loss = Bills #2 Seed - Potential Wild Card Round matchups are JAX, NE, MIA, PIT Bills lose + Bengals win = Bills #3 Seed - Hosting BLT in the Wild Card Round Of the remaining teams in the playoff hunt, the Bills cannot play the Titans or Chargers in the Wild Card Round.

I don't see why the Bills wouldn't get the #1 outright if the Chiefs lose and the Bills win. They'd be a game up in the loss column, plus they'd have the tiebreaker on KC.

Crazy how one play can completely change a season, huh? Last year, the QB sneak against Tennessee cost the Bills the #1 seed and now this one play could end up doing the same.

I don't think a forfeit is happening, regardless. Even announcing it as a tie messes with winning percentage. I'm guessing it's ruled a no contest.

I mean, they looked ok last week without him. Not saying they WILL beat KC, but Houston took the Chiefs to OT and the Colts beat them, so it's not like it's impossible.

If KC loses to the Raiders and the Bills beat NE, they'd be a game ahead of KC in the loss column, along with having the tiebreaker. I don't see how the Bills wouldn't be awarded the #1 seed, along with the bye and HFA if that were to happen.

If the Bills lose to NE and the Bengals beat Baltimore, the Bengals would be the #2 and play New England. Bills would host the Ravens.