BillsFan130
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Posts posted by BillsFan130
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1 minute ago, Bob in STL said:
What we know today is that a win is better than a tie, and a tie is better than a loss. A tie is undesirable but until all the games are played you cannot say that a tie in this game will hurt you. Seems like it would force you to win out the next three, which may be the case anyway.
Another thing, the two questions were asked separately (i.e later) and context is not provided. The only playoff scenario he needs to worry about is his team winning every game and they won the Colts game.
A tie would have crushed them. You honestly think the bills are going to go to New England and win? Tie that game yesterday and lose to the Pats and your season is done
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2 minutes ago, teef said:
oh. didn't see that.
Its all good. I deleted it seconds before you responded so nothing you could have done
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3 minutes ago, dneveu said:
I think the goal was to try and get a turnover. They may have thought Indy was going to go more through the air at that point...? Who knows.
I don't agree with the call, just throwing some ideas as to what may have gone into it. I think calling timeout and NOT going for it was more unforgivable IMO.
I think out of all the conservative coaches we've had in the drought, this was one of the worst sequences. Not only does he punt there, but he burns a timeout beforehand, where timeouts in that situation are extremely valuable.
Even dick jauron would have been disgusted with that sequence
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Just now, teef said:
when he made the comment, i just figured he was referring to him being more concerned about the bills winning their games and not worrying about what every other team has to do. you guys are trying far too hard with that one.
I know I mis understood it which Is why I deleted my post
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Just now, joesixpack said:
What formula did you use to come up with that percentage?75% of statistics are made up.
None. Its my own opinion based on the game and how effectively shady was running.
I personally think if the bills give the ball to shady on that 4th and 1, 3 out of 4 times he would make it
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
It isn't a 50% chance for the Bills. We were 2 for 10 on the year before yesterday, and 0 for 2 yesterday. I don't know what the percentage is for our 4th and shorts alone but from memory it isn't good.
Against the Colts and the way shady was running that game, I would have put the odds at 75 percent to make it if they did a read option with Webb under the gun.
Pretty much do the same play that got you the 3 yards on the 3rd and 4 before the punt
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8 hours ago, Just Jack said:
The Pats* have not rested starters since Bill became coach
Didn't they rest starters in 2014 when the bills beat them the last game of the year?
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18 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:
Sure, you can criticize the decision all you want. I am talking about the over the top comments calling for his firing and the nitpicking of every call and every use of a time out. As if there is only possible decision with nothing else to factor in but what we know by watching the TV and reading the newspaper.
The guy ended up making he right call. He may be lucky and he may be stupid, I don't think he is either. I think he is a bright and prepared. He is a young coach, going through a learning process. I think he knows the mentality of the team and ability of the players better than any of the fans or writers do. This is not poker and the odds are not so easy as a game with a set number of cards. Your dealing with people, and fatigue, and injury, and severe weather, and real opponents ... not luck of the draw.
I heard I guy on the post game show blame McDermott for losing the LB that New England picked up off of our practice squad. That is the extent of the craziness.
I'm not calling for his firing but I definitely don't think it was the correct call to punt
6 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
You have to be totally aware of the situation as an NFL HC.
Wow he actually said no to that? That right there tells me he thought a tie wouldn't have been bad, which is why he punted...
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1 minute ago, benderbender said:
Touche** haha
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1 minute ago, Gugny said:
Are you saying Vince Young is dumb?
Hahaha. Tushay
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4 minutes ago, Gugny said:
Dude. I'm not Vince Young. I get it.
This horse has been beaten to death, reincarnated, then beaten to death again.
By your original message it didn't seem like you got it, which is why I was trying to explain to you what I meant. Never once did I call or imply that you're dumb
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1 minute ago, dubs said:
This is quite literally a meaningless analogy. Odds in poker are pretty well known because there's a single deck of 52 cards. Odds in this situation are completely unknown. Anything that I've seen that uses odds has a totally flawed methodology because of the extreme circumstances. Even the odds that MAJBobby used showed a 2% decrease, and that's not even an appropriate model for this situation.
Once again you are missing the point. Just because I win that hand does not mean it was the correct decision. And just because the Bills won the game cause the punt, doesn't mean it was the right decision. Odds are pocket aces are going to beat pocket twos. Odds are by punting there, the game ends in a tie or a loss. Things happen of course
Just now, Gugny said:I can assure you, buddy, I've not missed a damn thing.
Apparently so. Read my message above
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Just now, Gugny said:
Well if you're playing poker and you're keeping cards in your pocket, that's cheating. That gets you shot in the face where I come from. You heard?
You are completely missing my point buddy
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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:
Depends how much snow affected your hand.
Good lord.....
Just now, joesixpack said:
Again, with these people it has nothing to do with the call. It has EVERYTHING to do with a deep seated dislike for McDermott, likely because of unpopular personnel choices.If I was a fan of the Pats and Bill Belichick made that call I would have been pissed. Nothing to do with the hatred for the guy. I just strongly disagree with his decision to punt
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Just now, oldmanfan said:
See, this is where you go off the rails. No one is kissing his behind. No one is saying you can't be critical. But what I would say is when folks say they can understand the call, and those who don't reuse to accept things like the weather having an influence (not you but others) it just gets ridiculous.
You would agree I suspect that there are those here that look for any excuse to rag on the coach. Even after a win, as has happened several times this year. It just gets over the top.
Wasn't going off the rails at all. Read his previous comment. I was replying to him. I was never talking about you as I got no problem with what you're saying even though I disagree with you
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Just now, Gugny said:
Insinuating that he did not give the team the best chance to win the game .. the day after they won said game ... doesn't compute with me.
Ok. Like I said in previous examples. If I play poker and I have pocket 2's pre flop, vs. pocket aces. We go all in before the flop. But I win the hand and beat pocket aces. Does that mean I was in the right odds to win?
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3 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:
Fans and Sports writer have it easy. We have the always safe option of the second guess.
Suppose the Bills go for it on that fourth and one situation, and like the previous two fourth downs they fail. The Colts are now about 25-30 yards away from a long FG but with the wind at their backs and veteran clutch kicker ready to try again. The Bills are likely a bit demoralized as the defense trots out there hoping for a stop to save the tie. After giving up a very long drive in the fourth quarter I do not like our chances in this scenario at all. We will never know, and it is pointless to argue, but it is likely that the Colts would have had a shot at winning the game.
The punt gives your defense a better chance to succeed but the punt is correct the decision only if your defense holds and you get the ball back in time to win. Both happened and we won. Yet many experts fans, most of whom never played or coached, cannot accept this. They insist on railing on the coach.
I love to second guess ... I think that McD should have punted on the 2 fourth downs in regulation and played for the field position when there was more time to do so. I also think he should have gone for 2 points after our first TD. I also think he should have not punted in OT. I would be wrong and he would be correct. I accept that outcome, we won the game and I am happy. I fully realize that I belong on the sofa watching the game with a beer in hand. Why can't most of you do the same?
Calling for his firing is just plain ridiculous. Listen to the sports writers and sportscasters is not productive.
Great win Coach! Now get us ready for next week!
So just because we aren't NFL coaches, we are not aloud to criticize a coach about a decision? Just supposed to kiss his arse no matter what decision he makes?
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2 minutes ago, Gugny said:
Can't play the if game.
What if Tolbert hadn't fumbled. That would have set up putting the game on ice.
What if Peterman didn't get hurt and we weren't left with Webb III (or was it Taylor II)?
Had he gone for it and come up short, there would be 17 threads calling for McD's head saying, "how the !@#$ do you go for it with a 3rd string QB in that weather?!?!?"
You know it as well as I do.
Not me. Even when he went for it on 4th and 6 and didn't get it I applauded him.
Every decision isn't going to workout. But at least give your team the best chance to win. And I don't think he did that by punting it
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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:
They get it at their 40. Even if they don't make a yard, their punter kicks it say 40 yards and now we are on our 20 yard line. And have to go at least 70 yards with likely no time outs (because I assume we use our two to save time), and because passing is so difficult it would be difficult to pass and get guys out of bounds to stop the clock.
As I said before I would have run on fourth down. But you and others seem to want to ignore the field conditions, when that was the single biggest aspect of the game yesterday. The thinking had to accommodate that.
The most amazing play I've seen in a long time was the pass to Thompson. Incredible.
No I'm actually factoring in the field conditions. They are essentially 15 to 20 yards away from winning the game and I thought that would be their only chance to score given those conditions you're referring to.
I did not want the bills to start in their own territory because of the awful field conditions and knowing we have a 3rd string QB.
Hey it worked out because of a couple lucky plays . But does not mean it was the right call
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6 minutes ago, Gugny said:
Bills fans get angry of the most stupid ****.
Jesus Harold Christ.
- Kneeling during a song.
- A player getting hit out of bounds.
- And a punt.
This is what has pissed off Bills fans the most in 2017. Crazy.
I don't care about the first two but that punt you are referring to was almost the reason the Bills are out of the playoffs today.
Out of curiosity, if Brissett hits Hilton for that wide open pass on the last drive, are you singing the same tune today? Cause that would have ended the bills season
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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:
As I said earlier I initially did not like the decision, and as I also said I would have gone for it. But upon reflection I can understand his call for these reasons:
1. You can try and ignore the conditions all you want but the conditions were the dominant part of the game yesterday.
2. The two most important players on the field yesterday were McCoy and Gore, but the SECOND most important were the punters.
3. So let's go through the scenario given the first two things. If you go for it and don't make it, you are essentially playing at best for a tie at that point. Because the Colts then get the ball around midfield, and even if you hold them on downs you have only two timeouts to slow things down. They then punt, and pin you back in your part of the filed.
4. Now you have the ball, you're around 80 yards or so from the end zone, or say 70 yards away from being able to kick what would normally be a chip shot FG but would be anything but that given the conditions. No way you're likely scoring and thus the best hope is a tie. And that ignores them actually scoring and winning outright.
5. By pinning them in their end, you essentially reverse the above. Schmidt was having a good day. You pin them down there, you bring safety potentially into play as a way to score. You get a turnover game is over because you're right there to score. Or of course you get the ball after they punt, and you're closer than yopu would have been other wise to score.
As I said, I would have gone for it. But I don't think is was as easy a decision as some want to make it out to be. And it's all because of the weather conditions. gnoring that is simply not being realistic. McD said he wanted to get the field position, and as it turned out that was a smart call.
I think it was a no brainer to go for it. Like absolute lay-up type of decision that should have been made.
Why is it automatically a tie if they don't get it? Colts start at their 40 yard line. Mcd by punting was obviously banking on getting the ball back, so the difference would have been what, maybe 15-20 yards of field position? They would have probably started at their 10-15 yard line instead of their 25-35. Big deal. Giving the ball away to the Colts to potentially save 15-20 yards of field position on a 4th and 1 call makes absolute no sense to me. And like I said, there was absolutely no guarantee the Bills were getting the ball back. We are very lucky Brissett decided to throw a ball 4 yards behind a WIDE open Ty Hilton
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1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:
You can't argue...... You make 100% sense and still people will explain how you are wrong. Heck the post below explained that there was a good chance at a turnover, which Indy did not have one in the game......
I know. Like if anyone actually answers number 2 in the scenario I listed above, I really have no words to say to that. Its mind boggling
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Good points. Good to focus on both teams of course though. Ravens always seem to play down to their opponents. I can see them losing a game which would put them at 9-7
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13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
I just went to this Number Fire site. I can't find a thing about the game yesterday, odds, etc.
So direct me to their analysis if you would. Because without it your answer is meaningless. And I will bet it does not take into account all the variables.
Here is the scenario and you tell me what is more likely. Odds aside and results aside.
1. The Bills need 1 yard to convert the 4th and 1 on the Colts 40. If they get 1 yard, they need another 15-20 yards to kick a 37-42 yard field goal for basically the win. Or even say 25 more yards to make it an easier field goal try.
2. The Bills punt. Need to force Indi to punt without them picking up 2 first downs. If they get 2 or more first downs, the game ends in a tie or even a loss if Indi continues to march. And then assuming they stop them, they would start at their own 25-35 with their 3rd string quarterback, with awful weather conditions, and have to go about 50 yards with 2:30 and 0 timeouts...
You are actually saying number 2 gave the Bills a better chance to win yesterday?
Results aside, and odds aside. Because that was roughly the scenario Mcd was given when wondering if he should punt or go for it.
The 2017 Draft: 1st round Re-do
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