BillsFan130
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Posts posted by BillsFan130
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4 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:
He almost always trades up like 2-3 spots for absolutely no reason. Remember when he traded up for Elam because we just had to have him? That was fun. I'd expect a trade to 22-25 just because
It hasn't worked out so far, but he said Elam was their only first round grade left so he wanted to secure him.
I don't have an issue with that logic, just Elam hasn't worked out yet unfortunately.
If Kincaid becomes a pro bowl tight end for 10 years, no one is going to care about Beane trading a 4th round pick to get him
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13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I understand!
My point is that it shows Beane is willing to trade back if the circumstances are right. He said he had a great trade-back he really liked on tap if it hadn't worked out to get Dalton Kincaid.
Clearly he has a track record of trading up in the 1st round - I spelled it all out here. TL;DR in the last 5 years, he's traded up 2x, stood pat 2x, and swapped for a player (Diggs) once.Fair points.
i guess until I see it, I won't put too much realistic thought into it.
But you raise fair points
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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:
In 2022, Beane did trade back twice, from 57 to 60 and then 60 to 63, before drafting James Cook
So it's not as though he's never traded back.
I'm talking about In the first round
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1 hour ago, Saint Doug said:
There’s no way Beane trades back. That’s not his MO. What will happen is he’ll trade up a few spots and say that the guy taken was the only guy left with a 1st round grade by them.
Exactly this^. I listen to joe marinos podcast and a lot of his talks are about BB trading back.
Just seems to be a waste of time talking about it a lot, as history has shown time after time he is probably going to trade up a few spots to get one of his first round graded players.
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I still don't see Beane trading back. If anything I think he trades up as he has shown to do that a lot in the past.
Good post, enjoyed reading this
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1 hour ago, FireChans said:
We are a couple days away from “it was voluntary, Josh didn’t do anything wrong by skipping a bit.”
If a story like This^ came out about Josh, you would absolutely lose your shi*
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Just now, HardyBoy said:
What's Von Miller's salary vs dead cap is cut? That was always going to be a three year deal basically right?
I'm assuming most of the incentives they built into his reworked deal were the not likely to be achieved since he had such a down year... so that will eat into the 2025 cap a bit if he does hopefully hit all of them, but still I think any cap numbers for 2025 should be probably talked about as if Miller is cut before the new league year starts...Knox too maybe, but my hope is he had a down year because of the wrist
I think if they cut him, they save around 5 mil next year.
i could be wrong, but Im pretty sure I heard that somewhere
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6 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:
The cap does not seem to be the only factor that went into parting ways with Diggs imhoYou're right as there were definitely multiple factors.
But at the same time I think it's a great opportunity to reset the cap a bit starting next year
2 minutes ago, Kmart128 said:Because he won't put us in Cap Hell. He is way cheaper than Diggs was and with a new deal could come much cheaper in the long run
He's not going to be cheaper than Diggs.
He will get around 23-25 a year, plus got to give up big assets to get him.
Draft one in the 1st round and you have cost control for 5 years
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2 hours ago, Toyo321 said:
These are all Felony charges and and they are not going to reduce all 5 to misdemeanor counts, if he is convicted of any of the felony charges he's going to jail.
But when is the trial really going to be though, in a few years?
He will get a suspension but I would bet a lot of money he comes back at some point in 2024 -
2 hours ago, Sharky7337 said:
Matt Milano.
The all pro best LB on the roster, whos replacement was already drafted. Would it be crazy for them to trade him now on an attempt to move up? Possibly.
But he has had some availability issues over the years. And the negative is him coming off a knee injury, but otherwise this would be a perfect sell high moment.
If a team was willing, it would be perhaps the best way to move up without sacrificing a boatload of future picks
Discuss
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2 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:
Neither. It's the TdF for me.
Ain't no such thing. Stanley Cup Playoffs, ***** is that?
If you don't watch hockey playoffs sir, you are missing out. Especially the 1st round- Absolutely wild
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Move up to low 20s and get Thomas if he's still there.
If he's not, maybe trade up a couple spots to get your guy so teams like KC don't leap frog you -
1 minute ago, FireChans said:
There we go, at least you finally addressed it. Only took me dunking on you to get you back in the game.
QB’s can absolutely fluctuate up and down over their career. Totally agree.
I also agree that it would probably be fair to say Mahomes had a slightly worse year in 2023 compared to the rest of his career.
I would argue a QB could have a down year for many reasons. Coaching change. Loss of talent. Just not up to their usual standards for a million reasons. I don’t think any of that means they are a worse QB. There are a lot of mental elements to the game that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet.
I think there’s a good chance Josh is a better QB next year in regards to his mastery of the game despite slumping in production compared to his career.
That’s it.
Ok - It sounds like your argument is, Mahomes wasn't as good statically, but it wasn't his fault.
I am not even denying that a lot of that isn't true as he clearly didn't have the talent now compared to his mvp seasons
But it's also a hard argument to say "he's better" when nothing shows that.
Anyways we will agree to disagree. Have a good night man -
5 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Ding ding ding.
tell him what he’s won, Johnny!
You just got Papa Doc’d. Puppeteered.
What in gods name are you talking about? 😂
You are arguing that Brady had a bad year in 2019 and got way better in 2020?
1. He went to a COMPLETELY different passing system with completely different players and a different TEAM. The variability is of course going to be massive as it's comparing apples to oranges. Perkins offence to Air raid.
2. Great QBs can have down years. Great players in any sports can have down years. Not "every year in linear".
Are you that naive that you're saying it's impossible for Mahomes to have a slightly down year compared to his usual MVP self? Even though stats and advanced stats show that it was the case?
Horrible comparison with the Tom Brady situation by the way. But nice try -
3 minutes ago, FireChans said:
We have seen lesser QB’s beat greater QB’s with more talent around them.
Nick Foles beat Brady in the SB. He doesn’t beat Brady, imo, without a nasty Eagles team around him (even the defense made a game ending play after getting dog walked for most of the game).
Two things can be true.
You can beat a dynasty every once in a while. They aren’t invincible, they are just the closest thing to it in football.
When Mahomes is 15-1 in the playoffs against QB’s not named Brady, it’s not a uniquely Bills problem, which is why folks say “we just keep losing to the best of the best,” because that’s mostly true.
Brady stood in the way of a ton of very good QB’s having more success. Ben, Rivers, Brees, Ryan. It doesn’t mean they have no chance. It didn’t mean Brady never loses. Mahomes is the same way.
Right now, the Bills, Ravens, Bengals, Texans and maybe the Jags are the only other teams with a chance vs the Chiefs. But I guarantee 15 years from now, Mahomes will have a winning playoff record vs all of them combined. Just like Brady does with all of his contemporaries.
This is obvious, I think.
This is very sad lol.
Are you going to keep running from the Brady comment, or just wave the white flag because you know it kills your “argument” in its crib?
Oh wait, no you’ll come back with “that’s irrelevant, we are not talking about Brady, you’re changing the subject.”
Some folks are just too easy lol
What is your Brady argument?
And what does that have anything to do with Mahomes in the point we are discussing?
We are talking about Mahomes. Not Brady..
Your argument is Mahomes is getting better. Yet nothing backs up what you're saying.
So how does Tom Brady factor into any of that?^
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6 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Your whole picture is counting stats. I don’t think those tell the whole story.
I will say it for a third time. If you believe that Tom Brady got almost twice as good at age 43 because his counting numbers were almost twice as good as the season prior, that’s your prerogative. I just think you’re completely wrong.
I gave you actual stats. Advanced stats. Nothing you are saying supports your argument that Mahomes is getting better.
You are obviously in the camp that Mahomes can't do any wrong no matter what the numbers say because right now your argument is "trust me bro" with nothing to back up what you're claiming.
So there's really no point arguing anymore .
8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:Imagine if we had Chris Jones and Travis Kelce over the past five years. Hell even just one of them and I am extremely confident we would have at least one Super Bowl win.
By the way some of these people will go in other threads saying that Beane hasn't done a good enough job finding elite players. But why does that matter if Mahomes is the main reason Allen hasn't won a Super Bowl? So deep down they know the real reason. It's just easier to boil it down to something simple.
I wish we can pin this post lol. Very well said
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1 minute ago, FireChans said:
I just posted advanced stats that showed he was the most accurate of his career in 2023. You just don’t like them lol
You're cherry picking a stat or two instead of factoring in the whole picture . I posted a stat that he was graded higher in 2018 compared to 2023.
1 minute ago, HappyDays said:You'll find in this discussion that certain people have to pretend elite players and elite coaches don't matter. To me it's simple - If Allen and Mahomes play equally in a matchup, the Bills will lose every single time. Because in that scenario the people around Mahomes are far and away better than the people around Allen and that will be the difference. For us to get past Mahomes we either need to get a couple of elite players or we need a new coaching staff, or we have to just hope Mahomes happens to play below his standard. Under our current circumstances there's no realistic scenario where Mahomes plays well and we beat the Chiefs.
100 percent. I can't stand the "Mahomes is the best cause he wins SB argument". It's so lazy
If people say Mahomes is better than Josh, that's fair of course. But to use the SB argument is extremely lazy
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1 minute ago, 90sBills said:
Wait. You’re saying his stats are bad now? You’re saying the best qb in the league has regressed since his debut when during that time has led his team to 4 Superbowls and winning 3 of them? Oh man I wish Allen could regress in such a fashion for the Bills. Let’s agree to disagree and move on because it’s getting to absurd territory.Ahh using the "Mahomes is getting better cause his team is winning SBs argument".
It was only a matter of time before someone used that lazy argument.
I didn't know Mahomes and Josh played individual sports. I thought football was a 53 man team game, but what do I know.
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8 minutes ago, FireChans said:
It's not PFF. It's PFR.
Like I said, if you are going to say Mahomes is worse because his numbers are worse, was Tom Brady regressing in 2019 and then suddenly got way better in 2020?
It's just not a valid argument to me.
If Josh's numbers take a sizable hit this season because he's throwing to plumbers and mailmen, I will not necessarily say he's regressing. It sounds like you will though.
But there's just nothing to support your argument that Mahomes is getting better.
Actual stats. Advanced stats. Nothing.
3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
If you watch their games you’d see that Kadarius Toney alone was responsible for a few of those. Just strictly looking at stats to determine if a qb has improved is foolhardy. Especially a qb that has taken his team to back-to-back Superbowls.All great QBs have great stats buddy lol. It would be foolish not to factor in stats.
Mahomes actual stats are way worse. And his advanced stats are worse since 2018.
So I really don't know what you wanna argue- If you want straw at things like "Toney caused an INT or two " compared to all data im saying here, that's a poor hill to die on and you have your mind made up so not much saying more
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4 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
That’s what I meant with my post. Mahomes’ improvements has been in those mental areas of being a qb. Like that boneheaded play he made in the ‘21 AFCCG before the half. That was him not recognizing game situations. He learned from that.His stats that first year was unbelievable. But defenses have adjusted to his game and took those away. Not to mention he lost a lot of the receivers on the end of those plays. He struggled briefly against the adjustments and now have figured how to beat those defenses.
He had more turnovers last year compared to the previous great ones.
So I am not sure that would fit the "he's taking what the defence is giving him" narrative. -
2 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
Mahomes is much better at taking what defenses give him. Recognizing how defenses are playing him and getting the ball to the right receiver against those defenses. He’s also much better at knowing game situations and what it takes to win as opposed to stats accumulation. That’s a large reason why KC is winning SB’s. It’s a team game but the QB holds the biggest key. Your team is not winning multiple SB’s if your QB is not operating at this mental level of the game.I'm not denying Mahomes isn't great, that's not what I'm saying.
But I am saying Mahomes isn't "better" now than a few years ago when he was winning MVPs and even SBs
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20 minutes ago, FireChans said:
The evidence is on the field.
I have no way of demonstrating that besides telling you to watch Mahomes close his eyes and chuck it to Tyreek 10 yards behind the defenders 5 years ago vs watch Mahomes run the offense today.
Stats have to be invoked to a certain degree? How much is the degree? If Josh’s production drops 25%, is that enough to say he’s a worse QB?
Here’s some stats for you, if you’re so inclined.
Mahomes bad throw % in 2023 was the best of his career. His on target throw % was the highest of his career. He had the highest rate of drops by his receiving group of his career.
Josh’s on target throw % in 2023 was worse than 2020. His bad throw % was the best of his career.
Mahomes bad throw % and on target % were both better than Josh’s in 2023 and 2020.
If that's PFF I'm sorry I can't put much stock into those. If you're a PFF guy, they have Josh as the number 1 QB. (if those stats are PfF)
Here are actual stats that aren't over analyzed by nerds 👇Mahomes 2018
52 TDS, 12 picks, 5300 total yards, 114 rating
2023- 4572, 27 TDS, 14 picks, 92 rating
Josh 2020- 5000 yards, 45 TDs, 10 INTs, 107 rating
2023- 44 TDS, 4900 yards, 44 TDS, 18 INTs, 92 rating
again I get it, it's not all stats. But it's like come on man...
Mahomes stats are wayyy worse where Josh's took a slight dip.
Stats don't tell the whole story, but they need to be factored in. Especially when there are massive dips in each category.
PFF also had a higher overall grade on Mahomes in 2018 compared to 2023, so if you want to go the "advanced stats " route, your argument wouldn't hold up there
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25 minutes ago, FireChans said:
So if Josh’s production takes a dip this year because he has no WR’s to throw to, he’s a worse QB?
I don’t agree with that.
No , please read my original message where I said it's not all stats. But stats do have to be involved to a certain degree
But 50 plus TdS to 27 last year and you say he's improved?
Thats almost a 50 percent drop off. Not too mention less yards and more turnovers.
I think you have to bring something more to the table opposed to just "he plays better in the system" which is a pretty subjective argument
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14 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Imo, he has gotten much better at playing within the system.
When Mahomes first came on the scene, he was able to play outside of structure and make teams pay for giving him big plays down field.
Around 2021, teams basically forced him to play in the system. They switched to majority deep shell coverage, and made him be patient (not dissimilar to what they have done with Josh).
Mahomes initially struggled, culminating in getting CRUSHED by the Titans in October.
Then, of course, they get rid of Hill, Kelce gets old and he has to pick his spots much more carefully. And he has.
I definitely agree with most of that, but I'm not sure how you can say he's improved overall.
I am not saying he got worse as he set the bar ridiculously high.
But improved from His MVP seasons? No way IMO.
He had 27 TDs last season. Teams play Josh the same they play Mahomes for the most part and Josh had 44
Joe Marino's Bills specific draft board: Horizontal & Vertical
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
It was a tough listen on only audio as it was hard to follow along, but probably way better on youtube.
Thanks for sharing