machine gun kelly
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Posts posted by machine gun kelly
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8 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Greg Tompsett is making the podcast rounds in the bye week this week and talking cap.
Gave a pretty detailed plan on Cover1 and showed how the Bills could get themselves to about $72M UNDER the cap. Or $56M under without anything too crazy.
Worth watching, or at least clicking around through, for anyone concerned with our cap situation next year.
He was also on Locked On Bills to discuss our Free Agents and re-signing options
As a little preview, the detailed plan to get to $72M...
No Brainers - Cap Saved
Restructure Josh - $23M
Restructure Diggs - $13M
Restructure Ed - $3M
Release Hines - $5M
Release Harty - $4M
Total - $48M
Being $29M OVER cap right now, these moves alone put us $19M UNDER.
Tompsett's Preferred/Likely Moves - Cap Savings
Extend Dawkins - $7M
Extend Douglas - $6M
Extend Johnson - $5M
Release Siran Neal - $3M
Release Sam Martin - $1M
Restructure McGovern - $3M
With these moves added to the above, the Bills would be $44M UNDER
Painful but Possible - Cap Savings
Release Poyer - $5.5M
Release Tre - $6M
Bills now $56M UNDER
Prefer Not - Cap Savings
Restructure Milano - $2.5M
Restructure Knox - $6M
Trade Elam - $165k
Release Bates - $1.5M
Release Morse - $5.5M
Bills now $72M UNDER
I type all that to once again reiterate, the cap is a myth.
Dawk, I like your breakdown, and not sure if they considered the cap increase next year. The last estimate I read awhile back stated it will go up approximately $30 mil. -
This is a surprise why?
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On 11/28/2023 at 12:05 AM, Johnnieo64 said:
Totally agree. He is spot on. And by the way. What the hell is Marcus spears saying about Josh?😡 Did he not watch the game? Idiot. Orlovsky had just said how great Josh played, which he did. And then Spears goes off on Josh. WTF??? And did you catch Orlovskys look while spears was talking. Like Really!!!! That’s why I do not watch ESPN anymore except for SVP.
Johnnie, agreed on all points, and I only add, Matchup is a solid show breakdown concepts and matchups. It’s not the hot take crap that is disgusting on ESPN and others. -
21 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Belichick is past his time. He has no idea how to coach this generation of players.
He was able to pull off his hardass "Patriot Way" because of old school Gen Xer Tom Brady. And they were able to keep that going for 20+ years.
The problem is he never had to adapt over the years. Not to new Millennial players. And by the time Tom left, the rookies coming in are all Gen Z.
He's two generations behind and these Zoomers could not be more outside his box.
Exactly, he coaches as if it’s the early 1990’s. Have a running game, play good defense, never truly relate to his players. I’d take a break from being a Bills fan of that happened. -
8 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
OP nicely written. Let's also not forget he has not missed many games so he has played many more games/snaps than others in the last 5 years. Also some of the worst INT guys suck and simply don't play that long and get benched.
I'm too tired to look it up but Josh has fumbled the ball a ton as well. Again he has more dropbacks and carries than probably any other QB during that time. But still numerically he is turning the ball over quite a bit. He cleaned up the fumbling quite a bit but it still has hurt him from time to time like Minn last year, Dolphins playoff game, and Jets this year.
He has the longest consecutive games streak in the NFL and it’s not even close. He also has a lot of TD’s so proportionally he’ll have some pics.
Lastly, this guy single handedly has gotten us out of trouble more times than I can count.
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3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes. The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability. And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.
If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.
It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true. Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc. But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions? No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.
There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt. So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?
Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:
Aaron Rodgers 1.4%
Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%
Tom Brady = 1.8%
Drew Brees = 2.3%
Josh Allen = 2.4%
Matt Stafford = 2.4%
Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%
Joe Montana = 2.6%
Steve Young = 2.6%
Phillip Rivers = 2.6%
Peyton Manning = 2.7%
Cam Newton = 2.7%
Dan Marino = 3.0%
Troy Aikman = 3.0%
John Elway = 3.1%
Kurt Warner = 3.1%
Randall Cunningham = 3.1%
Brett Favre = 3.3%
Warren Moon = 3.4%
Jim Kelly = 3.7%
Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's. And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.
Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great. For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.
Tom Brady: 3.2 to 1
Josh Allen: 2.9 to 1
Drew Brees: 2.4 to 1
Peyton Manning: 2.2 to 1
Brett Farve: 1.55 to 1
It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves. In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.
NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much. What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals. But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.
So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's? For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo.
Alpha as always thank you for a thoughtful analysis. My only caution for myself and others not to compare to Montana, Kelly, Marino and the older guys as the rules were different all of them threw more pics.Where you’re argument holds
water For me are the current or recently retired guys (last 4-5 years) as that is apples to apples.
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23 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:
The problem is the defense can't hold up late in games because we have a lot of older players that look absolutely gassed at the end of games. So we play soft defense and get taken to the wood shed far too often.
That being said, Josh Allen when at his best is the most dominant player in the NFL. So a 5-0 run is possible. We need Joe Brady to be scheming up some bigtime offense that suits Josh, and the Bills secondary especially our safeties really need to tighten things up. Hyde and Poyer's fall off in play this year has really been surprising.
Paup, to me part of that beyond your points (all good ones) is they have been on the field for way too much time. The problem is the seam offense and I finally started to believe Brady was getting more creative as well as Josh.
McD on the other hand I’ve lost faith. Too many bad decisions so I’m late to the party with McD can’t take us any farther. I’m getting there now. He was what this team needed 2017-2022. I can’t look the other way anymore when some of his decisions are maddening.
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4 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:
And this is why this site is busy and people are so mad.
Next game pretty much will tell us all.
And yes even a loss and we'll all look next to Dallas.😉
72, I only care about the Chiefs. Then I’ll only care about the Cowgirls. We win those two convincingly and McDermott stays out of the freakin way, then I’ll start to have some hope as we were the better team against Philly.-
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I’m not sure the question as both have been valuable this year. Von is still trying to get back to form.
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On 11/16/2023 at 4:05 PM, 34-78-83 said:
Do you think that Brady will reduce the number of option routes built into pass plays in the current Bills scheme in order to reduce the amount of thinking necessary (by both WR and QB) and to somewhat alleviate how much "perfect execution" will be required to have successful outcomes?
Reducing option routes, having more motion, keeping Davis doing what he does best in deep routes, 3x1 sets, Allen with some timely designed runs, and the person doing motion should be Harty or Isabella given their speed. Go routes is where they can shine. Using Cook more as a passing outside option overloading a side.
I know what we need to do. It’s just they need to execute and that’s the tough part the position coaches have to implement with their players.
Lastly, have fun. At the end of the day it’s a game. Enjoy it while they have the god given talent to do it.
Thats my contribution OP, and I prefer these types of threads, than the fire everyone and witch about players, coaches, and Mgmt. It does nothing. And for the record, I’ve been frustrated with a number of areas, but choose not to witch.
As far as today, the Eagles are exposed at LB, and Safeties so the middle of the field is where to design plays. My hope is Kinkaid is used heavily over the middle around 8-11 yards out.
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On 11/21/2023 at 12:49 PM, RobbRiddick said:
Yep, I agree. Best running back I ever saw and, along with Favre, the most entertaining player in my mind.
You must not be old enough to see OJ. The crazy part to OJ is every offense to stop him, yet he averaged 143 yards per game in 1973. That is the greatest avg yardage for a season of all time. Now I’m not old enough to remember that year, but I’ve watched the games after the fact. Granted he turned into a piece of human garbage later in life, but he’s up there with Barry. I used to always go to the Bucs/Lions games in the 90’s because of him. He was electric!-
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28-27 Bills and goes to the last second.
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4 hours ago, MarkKelso'sHelmet said:
My thoughts exactly. I used to like him . . . before I realized he's just another attention [fill in the blank]
I did as well Kelly back in his first few years starting in the league,until he just became weird.
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I don’t know if it means anything, but he’s had that brace since his return, and was scheduled to be removed Gameday tomorrow. We’ll see if that actually does anything.
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I’d love to jump on the hype train, but this is a misleading stat as that is looking at two 13-3 seasons, etc. it’s true Josh has done well, but I need to see him and the team for that matter against, Philly, KC, and Dallas. We win those 3, and I’m a believer again. That’s a big ask.
The good news is phillys secondary is vulnerable, KC’s offense has flaws and Dallas, well you just don’t know what you get week to week considering AZ beat them (kind of like us losing to the Cheats).
we win these 3, and I’m confident we can win the rest.
How about we build confidence with each week?
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2 hours ago, bills742 said:
There’s your answer Deadstroke
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On 11/20/2023 at 6:27 PM, Alphadawg7 said:
I find most people's take on draft night are rooted in 2 silly things...the stupid over valuing of what "draft number" they were taken at and what limited amount of names they know vs the many ones they don't know.
This past draft, I argued in a number of threads (I think I even started my own about it) that the Lions had maybe the best draft in the NFL when everyone was giving them the lowest grade...and why did they get a low grade, because they took a "RB" at 12 in Gibbs. So stupid...they landed the 2nd best RB prospect, the best LB prospect, the best S prospect, and the 2nd best TE prospect all in the first 2 rounds. I told everyone it does not matter where a player is drafted once the pads go on, it matters what that players brings to their team. And so far, the Lions draft class is paying off huge for them and a massive reason they are 8-2 including that RB pick everyone hated the draft slot of.
While draft convo is always fun, really grading anyones draft before players have played a single down is pretty pointless and useless. That is why it usually takes 3 seasons to really know how a draft really graded out.
Dawg,As always nice post, but for me it’s difficult to evaluate the draft without looking at free agency and trades. It’s turning out as of late Beane had a massive injection in talent in Joseph and Douglas, and if you want to go back awhile, Diggs. You’re listed draft picks are definitely hits, but a few took awhile like AJE.
Thanks for the work you put in on this thread. Enjoy your Black Friday. I know I don’t want anything to do with shopping.
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There are two problems.
1. He has an expensive contract for an often injured guy the last couple of years.
2. It’s a risk with those injuries.
Hed have to be willing to renegotiate his contract, and this year is a wash.
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On 10/12/2022 at 10:16 AM, 4merper4mer said:
Shirley this can’t be serious.
Classic skit. -
22 minutes ago, Toledo Bill said:
Rodgers and Saleh deserve each other,
both attention whores.
Exactly Bill. Rodgers, don’t go away mad, just freakin go away! -
Just getting on here as I was engulfed in family today. It was a blast as badly as these two games were today. I’m hopeful for a better nightcap with Seattle/SF.
As far this early game, I was a bit surprised GB played pretty well, amd Love as erratic as he was earlier in the season, he had a decent game today. I thought Detroit was going to commandingly beat the Packs.
The Cowgirls game was pretty much unwatchable. They stayed in it for awhile, but then just destroyed the abysmal Redskins (sorry I just can’t call them Commanders). Just pick any new name after this year.
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He’s not happy unless he’s in the news at least once every week or two. He’s so melodrama.
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Unless they implode, the Pegulas are not firing McD. Get used to it. I’m not commenting on what I want, just what I expect so I’m hopeful they turn this around.
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10 hours ago, HIT BY SPIKES said:
Oh Oh Oh...
BIG DADDY with Adam Sandler
DING, DING, DING, winner chicken dinner.
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Kincaid Chasing Bills History
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
We’ve had some decent TE’s and it’s early, but Kinkaid has shined. We still desperately need a WR to compliment Diggs. Diggs is 30 so we need to probably draft one a year for the next two years. A top TE with a couple of WR weapons and we have a solid RB in Cook. Murray and Fournette are fine fillers, but we could benefit from a bruiser in the future.