While Baltimore, Philly, KC, and Houston are tougher matchups, and I'd probably put Tampa Bay and Cincy together in that next tier. 10 wins is saying they basically lose 5 out of those 6 games, and another 2 of the ones below. The only thing that'd give me pause is the fact that they play Balt, Philly, KC, TB, and Cincy all in buffalo.
NYJx2
MIAx2
NEx2
NO
@Atl
@Car
@Pitt
@Cleveland
Considering Buffalo was a perfect 10-0 at home in 2024, I have some doubts about them going 5-4 in the last season at Highmark. The last regular season loss in Buffalo was Denver in 2023, before that was Minnesota.
2023 home record 7-1 (1 lost home game to London), 2022 Home record 7-1, 2021 Home Record 6-3, 2020 Home Record 7-1. They're 35-6 at home since 2020.