mjt328

Definitely not a positive sign for us drafting Kuechly, but I still wouldn't cross him off as a possiblity. I also agree that cornerback is a bigger need than linebacker, but I think Kuechly will be the best player available at #10. The comment that stands out to me is Riley Reiff. Our front office hasn't made a positive comment about him once during this draft process, without also mentioning his shortcomings. If we go tackle in the first, it's much more likely to be Jonathan Martin or Cordy Glenn. Nix seems to be very tight-lipped about Michael Floyd - and this is the second or third time I've noticed it. He hasn't been that way about any other player. It's also baffling (based on our needs and draft position) that Floyd was not in for a player visit. I think it's a smokescreen. It's interesting that Nix thinks there is a "no brainer" pick at #10, but he isn't sure that he will be there. Based on mock drafts all around the country, the only players that Buffalo has been seriously linked to, that also may be gone before our pick are Michael Floyd and Stephon Gilmore. Think about it.

I'm all for drafting Alshon Jeffery if he's there in the second round. If we wait until the third round, I like Marvin McNutt.

With today's NFL rules, I could care less about how hard a safety can hit. It's just going to get us a 15 yard penalty anyway. I care about how good he is in coverage and how good he is at wrapping up and bringing down the ball carrier. I'm not sure Barron is exceptional at either.

I also like Michael Floyd. Here is the problem with taking him at #10 though: 1) Our own GM stated that he doesn't think we have a capable starter at left tackle right now. We need a starter for opening day. 2) Left tackle is the hardest position to find on the offensive line, and probably the second hardest position to fill in all of football (after quarterback). Scanning the current NFl depth charts, you will see that more than half (53 percent) of starting left tackles in the league were taken in the first round. A whopping 75 percent were taken before the start of the third round. That's a small window. 3) This particular draft is considered very thin at offensive tackle, but very deep at wide receiver. If we pass on Floyd, we still could likely get a potentially starter like Alshon Jeffery, Marvin McNutt, Juron Criner, Rueben Randle or Mohamed Sanu in the second round. If we pass on Reiff, we are left with almost no options on the left side. Most of the remaining prospects like Zebrie Sanders, Bobbie Massie, Jeff Allen and Mitchell Schwartz are big projects that are better fits as right tackles. I'm with you. I don't think Riley Reiff or Jonathan Martin are spectacular prospects, and probably grade out more as solid starters. But with Demetrius Bell gone, I think we've backed ourselves into a corner.

You are nitpicking here. > I said that Marcel Dareus would be a "very good player" (direct quote). He's shaping up to be EXACTLY that. The reason I brought up statistics way back then, was because some people on this board were expecting him to be the next Bruce Smith. I wanted to point out that he was never going to be a player that racked up big sack numbers. By the way, Dareus played 3-4 defensive end most of last year (not DT), just like Bruce Smith. And his "excellent" 5.5 sacks was good enough for him to tied for 59th in the NFL. > I said that AJ Green would develop into a "regular Pro Bowler" (direct quote). His stats (65 catches, 1057 yards, 7 tds) were good - especially for a rookie, but not exceptional. Most of the time, those numbers would fall short of making the Pro Bowl. I guess the voters happened to like him this year. I still don't see him reaching his potential until about season three. So honestly, how can you say I was wrong about him? > My thoughts on Von Miller (saying he would only be "alright") were more of a reflection on him going into a 4-3 defense than on his talents as a player. That was stated in the original post. Why? Because Miller's talents were clearly in rushing the passer. And in most 4-3 defenses, the linebackers are responsible for stopping the run and dropping into coverage. I never said he was going to suck or be a bust. But since I didn't give a full explanation, you can go ahead and say I was wrong. > Cam Newton was ABSOLUTELY a bad call on my part. He was always going to be a high-risk, high-reward player. His mechanics were awful, he never progressed through his reads and he always looked to run first. Most of the time, those kinds of players have bust written all over them. I would have never expected Newton to develop so much in his rookie year. And I completely stand behind that comment about Mark Sanchez. I never called him a "big game quarterback" or suggested that he was some kind of stud. I simply pointed out that he seemed to play better in big games - specifically the playoffs. Which was absolutely true.

Wow. This page has gone about 4 pages longer since I checked it. I think I lost track of the conversation. To answer your question, I think Nix is a great judge of talent and YES, definitely a better scout than me. My problem with the original post was that I felt he was "suggesting" (maybe I took it wrong) that fans have no business ever criticizing Nix or his draft selections, because they don't know what they are talking about. Fans should just accept and trust whoever the front office selects, no matter what they think about his play. And I don't agree with that. I believe there are many knowledgable fans out there - including many on this board, who have proven they have a great eye for talent. It's not all done in RETROSPECT. And it's not all done with a draft magazine or because of an ESPN analyst. For instance, there were many on this board that were upset ON DRAFT DAY when Nix took Terrell Troup instead of Terrence Cody or Rob Gronkowski. Both would have been significantly better selections.

OK... > Spiller has NOT lived up to being a top 10 pick in any way. He is going into this THIRD season and is still a backup. So I was right about that. > Fitz hasn't done anything. Look at the Bills record with him at quarterback. Look at his stats. I was right about that. > Not sure the quote I made about Sanchez, but I don't think I ever called him a big game QB. Maybe I talked about how he came up big in big games (the Jets made it to the championship game his first two seasons). Can't really comment unless I know what I said. > Newton had dreadful mechanics in college. He was a risky pick that looks like it's going to work out. I'll admit that I was wrong about him. > Miller was tremendous in college. I made the mistake of over-analyzing how his size would limit his effectiveness, especially in Denver's scheme. > Dareus has been exactly what I said. Very good, but it doesn't show on the stat sheet. 5.5 sacks. I was right there. > Green has not reached his potential yet, but I believe I called him a future Pro Bowler. I was right about him. > Peterson looks EXACTLY like what I called. Good, but not great. He made more impact in 2010 as a returner. With the exception of Cam Newton and to a certain extent, Von Miller, I fail to see your point.

Who cares if the media does most of the work? I don't need to do all those things behind the scenes in order to form an educated opinion about a player's talent. All I care about is determining whether players like Ryan Tannehill, Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon are worth the hype they are getting. Try doing these two things in your spare time: 1) Watch some games in college 2) Watch some actual game film (not highlights) of top prospects on websites like www.draftbreakdown.com and www.mainboard.com The point is, there are a lot of regular football fans that know what they are talking about. A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were outraged when Buffalo took Donte Whitner instead of Haloti Ngata or Broderick Bunkley. A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were dumfounded when Buffalo drafted Aaron Maybin instead of Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing. This was not hindsight. In all of these cases, the Bills would have been better off listening to a regular fan instead of their high-paid scouts.

It's not about fantasy football. It's about common sense. For example, just last year with Blaine Gabbert. According to ESPN and most media outlets, Gabbert was very highly rated by most NFL GMs. Scouts loved his size and arm strength. He looked great in drills and spectacular on his pro day. There were times when they speculated Carolina would take him #1 instead of Cam Newton. There were plenty of people that thought WE should take him at #3 instead of Dareus or Von Miller. And sure enough, Jacksonville ended up taking him at the #10 spot. HOWEVER... There were PLENTY of people on this board (myself included) that wouldn't touch Gabbert with a ten-foot pole. Watching about 5-6 Missouri games, I felt it was obvious that Gabbert didn't have the skill to play at an NFL level. Apparently many others agreed with me. Despite playing in a pass-friendly offense, Gabbert spent most of his games checking down and throwing dump offs. He rarely tested downfield and when he did, the passes were way off target. A year later, the Jaguars are already prepared to give up on him. He looks like a complete BUST. So my question is... If none of the fans here know anything, why were so many right about Gabbert?

I think it's funny that you so easily discount the knowledge of football fans that have been watching this sport their whole lives. A lot of us live, breathe and die football. And just because we don't a career as a professional scout, it doesn't make us complete idiots. If the Bills traded Kyle Williams tomorrow for a seventh round pick, would you be upset? Or would you just trust the front office? OF COURSE you would be MAD, because you can see by watching the games that Kyle Williams is a very good football player. And based on the odds, you know that most seventh round picks aren't even good enough to make an NFL roster. You don't need to be a SCOUT to tell that it's a horrible-lopsided trade. Honestly, scouting the top college playes isn't much different. Obviously, fans don't have access to all the game film that top scouts have. And they don't have the time or resources to track every eligible player in the country. But they do have the time and resources to form educated opinions about the top group of prospects. You don't need a draft magazine to figure out that Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Justin Blackmon are top NFL prospects. All you need is a television tuned into the Stanford, Baylor or Oklahoma State games.

I would rather wait until the second round and take a shot at Alshon Jeffery (assuming he is still there).

I know I might sound cocky and arrogant, but I honestly don't think it's that hard to spot NFL talent. To answer your post, I haven't decided yet who I think the Bills should draft at #10. Some of the players I would consider at that spot are Dre Kirkpatrick, Michael Floyd and Riley Reiff. > Kirkpatrick reminds me of Antoine Winfield. He isn't going to show up on the highlight reel every week, but he's very solid in coverage and an excellent tackler. With all the dink-and-dunk offenses around the NFL, I think he would be a valuable addition. > Floyd is an excellent all-around recevier, who would be the perfect addition to this offense. I especially like his ability to go up high and get the ball on deep passes, but he's also good at short and intermediate routes. > Reiff's success in this league will depend on his ability to add strength and get better using his hands. If he can't do that, he's going to be a right tackle in the NFL. Some of the players that I don't like (who have been discussed as our picks at #10) are Ryan Tannehill, Jonathan Martin, Stephen Hill, Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw. > Tannehill is going to be a middle of the road quarterback in this league. Somebody is going to invest a high first round or high second round pick on him, and it won't be worth it. > Martin struggles to hold blocks at the second level and gets beat too easily by good pass rushers. He's got the frame scouts like, though, so he'll get picked somewhere on day one. > Stephen Hill has all the intangibles you look for - speed, size, hands - but he just doesn't have enough production. There has to be a reason that his college career was so unspectacular. > Coples doesn't have the speed or moves to get around the edge. He can be a solid 3-4 end, but he will disappoint as a 4-3 pass rusher. > Upshaw might have some success as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but I hate his overall effort on the field. He doesn't chase down plays and is inconsistent as a pass rusher. For the record, I'm torn on Melvin Ingram. I think he's an incredible athlete and decent pass rusher. I just wouldn't take him at #10 and I don't think he fits our defensive scheme.

As an amateur, I often did a better job scouting talent than Russ Brandon, Marv Levy and Tom Donahoe. So yeah, it's going to take some time for me to completely trust Buddy Nix and his decision-making. He's been a mixed bag so far. Honestly, I don't think it's that hard to spot talent - even if you are just a fan. I think these scouts and "experts" overthink themselves, when 95% of the time it comes down to production on the field. Not combine numbers, Wonderlic scores and pro days. Just some examples: > Coming out of college, I felt that Bryant McKinnie was a better LT prospect than Mike Williams. But our front office went for size over talent. I was right. They were wrong. > When we let Pat Williams go in free agency, I made the comment that it was "the beginning of the end" for our dominant defense. It's been downhill ever since. > I saw JP Losman as a first-round reach and Willis McGahee is a wasted pick that would force us to trade Travis Henry. I was right in both cases. > If I was drafting instead of Marv Levy and Russ Brandon, we would have grabbed Haloti Ngata and Brian Orakpo instead of Donte Whitner and Aaron Maybin. I also thought Patrick Willis and Adrian Peterson were two of the rare players worth trading up for. I hated Nix's first draft (Spiller, Troup, Carrington, etc.) and his first year of free agent pickups (Dwan Edwards, Andre Davis). Two seasons later, we've got almost nothing to show from those additions to the team. Last year, I felt Nix did a lot better job - particularly in drafting Marcel Dareus and nabbing Nick Barnett in free agency. Lo and behold, they were our two best pickups. For the record, I liked us drafting Aaron Williams and Kelvin Sheppard, but I preferred us taking Ryan Mallett in either the 2nd or 3rd round. We will see how that pans out.

I'm coming around to the idea of taking Michael Floyd. He's nowhere close to Justin Blackmon, but he does have a very good all-around skill set. And this stuff about Stephen Hill... This is exactly how major BUSTS come about in the NFL. He's done virtually nothing on the field. But then scouts start drooling over his physical attributes and combine numbers, and the guy shoots up the charts. I wouldn't touch the guy until at least Day 3 of the draft.

Agreed. Let's hope that Lloyd doesn't have much left in the tank. The Patriots could be more dangerous with a legitimate downfield threat.

Tremendous deal for the Bills. They take the majority of the cap hit this year, with the free agent market already dried up and their major players re-signed. After that, the number goes down considerably and opens up room for more moves in 2013 and 2014.

Let's say we didn't spend $16 million per year on Mario Williams? What combination of other top free agents would have been better for the same amount of money? John Abraham just re-signed for $7 million per year Jeremy Mincey got between $6-7 million Prior to free agency, Robert Mathis got $9 million Pierre Garcon got over $8 million Vincent Jackson got over $11 million Robert Meachem and Laurent Robinson got $6-7 million Reggie Wayne re-signed for over $6 million DeSean Jackson re-signed for over $10 million People who say we could have gotten "several" good free agents for the same price are fooling themselves. For roughly the same amount of money, we could have signed maybe TWO decent players. Like a combination of 34-year-old John Abraham and the overrated Pierre Garcon. I'll take Mario Williams - thank you very much.

I saw a breakdown of Mario Williams contract. Because of his bonus, the biggest cap hit will come this year (about $25 million). His cap number will be VERY small in 2013 and 2014, and then gradually goes back into double digits for the last three years. In other words, the only thing his signing will prevent is us signing free agents THIS YEAR. So my question is, who are we missing out on?

I wouldn't be surprised if he's right about Tannehill dropping out of the first. Every year, the "experts" push about 15 guys as SURE-FIRE top 10 picks, and about 45 guys as SURE-FIRE first round picks. They don't know. Consider this. These are the teams that really need a quarterback: Miami, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Washington, Seattle We know that Indianaplis is taking Luck and Washington is taking Griffin. The current assumption is that either Seattle or Miami will sign Matt Flynn. When Peyton Manning signs, it will likely put Matt Hasselbeck, Tim Tebow or Kevin Kolb on the market. There is a good chance that one of the two remaining teams I listed snatch that guy up. That leaves one potential suitor for Tannehill. That team may not like him. Or they may be more comfortable waiting awhile and going for Brandon Wheeden.

I don't think it's that simple. Prior to the start of free agency, I imagine that DOZENS of teams expressed interest in Mario Williams. I'm sure that we weren't the only scheduled visit for him this week - just the first one. But in the NFL, free agency usually moves pretty quickly. By the time his meeting with Buffalo was over on Tuesday night, many of those teams had probably moved on. Chicago got Brandon Marshall and dropped out of the bidding. Jacksonville was considering a run at him, but then they re-signed Mincey. Detroit was interested, but franchised Cliff Avril. Other teams were likely "forced" out of the race, simply because of Buffalo's large offer. The theory about Tennessee and Peyton Manning makes A LOT of sense. If another team had a legitimate offer on the table for Williams, I'm sure he would be heading out of town to visit with the coaches and see the city (like he did with us). Instead, he seems to be stalling or waiting for something to happen. The only thing that makes sense, is that he's waiting for the only other top free agent (Manning) to sign, so he can see if another team jumps in the race. Personally, I don't think Manning will be making his decision anytime soon. And Williams would be foolish to pass on this offer, leave town and take the chance that Buffalo moves on to other free agents. Then if Manning signs with Tennessee, he may be forced to take a much smaller contract.

As always, take this with a grain of salt. But I was just over on the Tennessee Titans message board to see if anyone has some insight on our situation. The fans in Tennessee believe that Mario Williams is waiting to see if the Titans get Peyton Manning. He is the number one priority for Bud Adams. If the Titans don't get Manning, they have apparently told Mario's agent that they will match Buffalo's offer. And with the money equal, Williams would rather play in Tennessee. If true, that may be why he is stalling. The good news for Buffalo is that Tennessee seems to be in the driver's seat for getting Manning.

It's concerning that "trying their best" might not be enough. The top coaches - Cowher, Shanahan - wouldn't even consider us back in 2009. During last year's free agency, Tyson Clabo used us for leverage, then re-signed with the Falcons. Now Mario. If the problem is our front office - we can always have hope they will someday be replaced with aggressive and competent people. If the problem is that nobody wants to come here, then we have no hope to ever build a winner again.

1) Demetrius Bell was decent last year. But he can't stay healthy. 2) Levi Brown was a former first rounder, but most consider him a bust. Left Tackle is a very important position. And considering the above statements, we could certainly stand an upgrade.

Biggest team needs, in order: #1 - Quarterback Unfortunately, drafting at the #10 spot prevents us from drafting Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin. And it's doubtful Peyton Manning would even consider coming here. So this one will have to wait another year. #2 - Defensive End Without a pass rush, having talent at other defensive positions is basically worthless. With Chris Kelsay and Shawne Merriman slated as our probable starters, we could use upgrades on both sides. #3 - Left Tackle Demetrius Bell was decent last year, but we can't count on him to stay healthy and he currently remains unsigned. Chris Hairston is probably better suited to play on the right side. At the very least, we need some better depth. #4 - Wide Receiver Re-signing Stevie Johnson was a big step in the right direction. We need a downfield playmaker to draw the defenses away from the line of scrimmage, and to make up for Ryan Fitzpatrick's lack of downfield accuracy. #5 - Cornerback In a passing league, a team can never have enough cornerbacks. I like the potential of Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers. But there isn't much else behind them. Drayton Florence was a disappointment last year. Terrance McGee is done. Leodis McKelvin is officially a bust. #6 - Linebacker I wouldn't mind an upgrade on the strong side or some more depth. #7 - Center Eric Wood is one of our best players. But he's injury prone and we had no backup plan last year.

Tannehill has been flying up the draft boards. It's becoming more unlikely that he makes it out of the first round. He'll get a lot of consideration from Cleveland at #4 or #22, Miami at #8 and Seattle at #12. I sure hope the Bills aren't considering him. I think he has talent to be a starter in the NFL... just not a very good one.