[WGR this morning (9/14)]

I just moved back from CA yesterday, working outside of Syracuse (Skaneateles Falls) and for now living with my father in Rochester until I find a place. Any good radio to listen to about the Bills in those markets? This morning, I listened to Sirius XM NFL mostly from 6 AM to 9 and never heard the Bills mentioned (probably they did sometime when I had to have the radio off). I missed Schein's monolog unfortunately, I'm sure he had a lot to say.

[Bills tried out 3 kickers today]

2 hours ago, simpleman said:

Not only that. Don't forget if it is a home game. NYS quarantine is 14 days for 90+ percent of the country. Exactly how will players from other teams pass quarantine? Or is the state law only for the common smuck?

As Hapless said, most common schmucks don't get tested regularly like NFL players / employees do. Also, there is an out for essential workers coming from out of state. If they get tested upon arrival, they are not required to quarantine after the results come back as negative. Since I'm starting a new job in the Syracuse area next week immediately after arriving from CA, I called the NYS covid hot line just to confirm I can do that and was given approval. I don't know if I would consider myself essential, but the definition applies so I'm going with it.

[NFL Sunday Ticket 2020]

I’ve never called before asking for discounts. I just accepted a job in Skaneateles Falls so I’ll be working there and coming home to California on some weekends. Since I only get Sunday Ticket to watch the Bills and I assumed I’ll be in NY for most weekends and can watch on local TV, I called up to cancel. She asked if the reason was with everything going on I wasn’t interested in football. I said yes and she said in that case they’ll give it me free this year if I want to keep it.

[Bills scrimmage 8/27]

1 hour ago, ProeBills said:

Some obvious comments about 1sts vs 2nds:

1. Coaches WANT their squads to succeed! They want to build confidence and create opportunities for success / wins;
2. First team vs first team means ANY injured player is a starter;
3. More difficult to evaluate bubble players against bubble players. Need to evaluate bubble players against better opposition.

Summary:

1. 1st teams (O and D) succeeded. Comments diminishing Josh's reported fantastic outing are simply missing the point - he succeeded in the situation the coaches put him in;
2. I presume coaches got a good look at bubble players against better competition;
3. No injury report so far that I've seen - could be good news or just incomplete.
4. Good day coaches!
5. The rest is just noise

Excellent points, especially the third comment. I read that Love looked great, obviously meant much more since he went against the 1s than it would have if he was against the backups.

[Authentic Bills Jersey's]

This is where I bought mine a year ago and am very happy with it. $37, embroidered.

https://www.ecrater.com/p/31545729/josh-allen-17-buffalo-bills-game

[Pete Carroll vs Greggo]

1 hour ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I don’t remember him being so easily hatable when he was in Buffalo...  his unintelligible diatribe on his masterful defensive scheme and complexity is ironic. 

That’s not how I remember it. As soon as he came in and dismantled the D because the prior year it was “only” number 2 ( his Titans D was 1 of course), then he started with his air horn routine, I was convinced he was a jerk.

[John Brown with high praise for rookie WRs “Gabriel Davis playing all over the field”]

8 hours ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

Good to hear. I would think both have a shot to make the roster or possibly protected on the practice squad.

I’m really hoping they both make the roster. I think there’s too good a chance of losing Hodgins (and of course Davis as well) if we try to get them on the practice squad. They still must clear waivers and even if they do they can only be protected part of each week. Although it may be unlikely, I’m hoping Beane can trade Foster, Williams or McKenzie for a late round draft pick. Green Bay needs receivers. Would they trade instead of risking them signing elsewhere?

[Training Camp countdown and previews]

6 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

Glad to see OUR staff being organized, prepared, and detail-oriented. Imagine how Wrecks' discombobulated crew would have handled COVID... I don't even want to think about it; I'm just thankful we have McBeane in charge. 

 

Side-note: Even The Hoodie is behind the 8-ball on this... Bills fans should be licking their chops. The tide is turning in the East, and WE are ready to take the division by the jugular!

From what I had heard, the NFL approved all plans at least a week ago. The NFLPA has not finished reviewing them. So, there may be nothing wrong with others, just waiting for review.

[Charges against Ed Oliver dismissed]

One of my best friends has a nephew that’s a state police in Texas. My friend was visiting, bringing his wife and three teenage boys with him. The nephew told him he’s guaranteed to be pulled over while there, they’ll assume someone with CA plates will either be Hugh or at least have pot with him. Sure enough, he was pulled over, I think for a taillight not working. Nothing happened, I think my friend mentioned that his nephew is a cop, told him this would happen, and said “really, a 50 year old with 3 kids, you really think I’m on drugs?”

[One of the first in a long line of head scratching losses by the "Bickering Bills" of 1989.]

On 7/8/2020 at 5:33 PM, njbuff said:

The Bills between 1988-1993 had no business losing to the Pats during this timeframe.

 

But the Bills lost to them at NE in 1989 and 1991.

 

Even back in the heyday of the Bills they still lost to the Pats.

 

We truly have lived a miserable existence when it comes to the Bills playing the Pats.

 

But we are still here. ??

I was at the 1991 game (at least I think that's the one I was at). The only game I've seen in NE. Rainy day, not hard rain but enough to be miserable. Or, maybe it was just that the Bills lost a close game that they had no business losing that made it miserable.

[Result - voting for Josh Allen top 10 plays]

Very cool. Thanks for posting.

[Too-early prediction - Last Place in AFC East ???]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m not sure Brian understands how odds work. He says that “the odds are against Buffalo making it to the playoffs this year.” The Bills are -105 to win the division right now. Not only do the odds favor them to make the playoffs, the odds favor them to win the division.

 He seems to think that because they have not made the playoffs 2 years in a row since the nineties,  that affects their odds to make the playoffs this year because they already made them last year. Pretty stupid.

[Too-early prediction - Last Place in AFC East ???]

I had read the article shortly before you started this thread and my reaction was to shake my head and say the author is an idiot.

[Bills Mount Rushmore]

1 hour ago, Limeaid said:

 

Since he was signed for multiple more years the Bills should have made him sit out or play.

Bills bending over backwards due to slimy actions of his agent including refusing to negotiate for other players whose contracts were up for renewal is reason why agents started treating Buffalo as easy to get what they wanted.

It was one of the worst trades because of THIS not because they would not give him a new contract.

At the time, I agreed with you Limeaid, I thought that we already renegotiated his contract (twice I think) and he can't just keep asking for more. However, the reality is, the entire situation started with Levy signing Derrick Dockery to a seven year $49 million contract ($18 million signing bonus) and Langston Walker to a $25 million five year contract ($10 million signing bonus). When he did that, all of talk radio said they obviously now had to pay Peters. But, their attitude was he had already renegotiated and they weren't going to do that. If we didn't overpay those other two, I'm not so sure Peters would have held out, or at least not the year that he did. And, hopefully at some point they would have paid him what he deserved.

[Bills Mount Rushmore]

9 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

KD, thanks for doing this research.  I could do the avg. yards per game, but wasn’t sure of the 16 game players, did they have their yards front loaded and could any of them made it in 14 games, and then tailed off the last game or two.  I tried really hard to find by week 14 how many yards actually did each of the six get to in the books, but I guess the avg. is good enough.  Sucks he had to ruin such great football memories with atrocious behavior later in his life.

No MGK, none would have been close. See below for the first 14 games of the season for all 2000 yard/season rushers (plus Jim Brown's season that OJ surpassed). In fact, if you eliminate the worst two games any of them had that got there in a 16 game season, only Dickerson and Sanders would have hit 2000. For Dickerson, he'd have 2015 yards (worst two games were 38 and 49 yards in weeks 8 and 14 respectively). Sanders' worst two games were weeks 1 and 2, he actually had exactly 2000 yards in the last 14 games of the 1997 season. Also note that OJ is the only one who surpassed Jim Brown in the 1st 14 games of a season.

 

Player	Year	Rushing Yds 1st 14 Games	16 Game Rushing Yards
Eric Dickerson	1984	1792	2105
Barry Sanders	1997	1731	2053
Terrell Davis	1998	1801	2008
Jamal Lewis	2003	1747	2066
Chris Johnson	2009	1730	2006
Adrian Peterson	2012	1812	2097
OJ Simpson	1973	2003	NA
Jim Brown	1963	1863	NA

 

 

To the original question, I was too young to remember Sestak or Shaw, but I'd pick OJ, Kelly, Bruce, and Thurman. Although he was great, I don't see Reed as nearly as important to the Bills of the early '90s as Thurman was.

[Who remembers 3 TD's in 1 minute, 17 seconds ?]

8 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Well before my time, but I watched the clip and i can imagine the feelings some of you 

 

They used to quiet the crowd/allow extra time for the offense due to a loud crowd? What the heck! 

 

Was this before 2 point conversations? Bills go up 8 and the commentator says they need a TD and a fieldgoal. 

Yes, in 1989 they added a crowd noise rule. The visiting QB could complain to the refs that they couldn't hear and the ref would stop the clock and warn the crowd. If they didn't quiet down enough, they can start taking timeouts from the home team or assess a 5 yd penalty if they were out of timeouts. The defense would actually help to quiet the crowd instead of asking them to make more noise. Not sure when they got rid of the rule, maybe when the qb started having electronic communication with the sideline. Also, yes, pre 2 point conversion being an option. Converting via a run or pass was 1 point then (college had it worth 2 as far back as I know of).

[Who remembers 3 TD's in 1 minute, 17 seconds ?]

I remember it well, sort of. Was in the stands at Rich stadium as it was called at the time. Left for the bathroom as the Broncos were lining up for the field goal that was blocked and returned. Ended up missing most of the scoring.

[Post Schedule Release - Win Total - Predictions]

4 hours ago, mjt328 said:

Before the season, I usually try to tackle the schedule from a couple different angles.

 

Based purely on last year's (2019 season) results, the Bills had a better record than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Titans, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos).  They also had a better point differential than 11 of their upcoming opponents (Jets and Dolphins 2x, Rams, Raiders, Seahawks, Cardinals, Chargers, Steelers and Broncos).

 

Of course, teams won't be exactly the same as last year.  And my "objective" non-scientific opinion is that the:

- Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Cardinals, Steelers and Broncos have improved their rosters since the 2019 season

- Rams, Patriots and Chargers have gotten worse since the 2019 season

- Titans, Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers are roughly the same as the 2019 season

What makes this schedule so tricky to predict, is the poor/below average franchises in 2019 were usually the ones who apparently made the biggest strides in the offseason.  Fortunately, I also believe the Bills have improved from last year's squad.

 

Since Josh Allen is generally considered our weakest link, I also wanted to do a comparison of Quarterback opponents.  

-  In my opinion, we only play two elite guys this year (Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson), who are significantly better than Allen.  Due to unknowns about his injury/age, I would consider Ben Roethlisberger an iffy addition to this category. 

-  We also play a handful of mid-level/veteran QBs who are inconsistent in performance (Jared Goff, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo, probably one game against Ryan Fitzpatrick) and could easily be surpassed by Allen this year. 

-  The rest of the games are against Sam Darnold,  Kyler Murray, Jarrett Stidham and Drew Lock.  I suspect Tua takes over by Week 17 and it's likely that Justin Herbert will replace Tyrod Taylor before Week 12.   

If we lose to the elite guys, split against the vets and beat everyone else, that comes out to 11 wins.

 

Those factors considered, here are my predictions on :

1 - Jets (Home) - Win, 1-0

2 - Dolphins (Road) - Win, 2-0

3 - Rams (Home) - Win, 3-0

4 - Raiders (Road) - Win, 4-0

5 - Titans (Road) - Loss, 4-1

6 - Chiefs (Home) - Loss, 4-2

7 - Jets (Road) - Win, 5-2

8 - Patriots (Home) - Win, 6-2

9 - Seahawks (Home) - Loss, 6-3

10 - Cardinals (Road) - Win, 7-3

11 - Bye

12 - Chargers (Home) - Win, 8-3

13 - 49ers (Road) - Loss, 8-4

14 - Steelers - (Home) - Win, 9-4

15 - Broncos (Road) - Win, 10-4

16 - Patriots (Road) - Win, 11-4

17 - Dolphins (Home) - Win, 12-4

 

 

I really like the way you looked at this M. I, and many others who posted, always say that they could easily lose to a team they shouldn't or beat a team they shouldn't. I think you basically handle this with splitting against the vet QBs. I also noticed that although you said "that comes out to 11 wins", your game by game predictions shows 12 wins. Since there are five games against who you call vet QBs, I presume you're splitting the difference here, game by game you think they'll win three of those but under the expectation they may only win two and lose three you went with the 11 win prediction.

 

I think we will win 11 this year.

[NFL Schedule leaks]

Not all teams have a Thursday night game, but most do. Last year 28 teams had one.

 

Edit: meant to quote Logic that said all teams have a Thursday night game, somehow I messed that up.

[How will we handle final roster decisions if there is no/little camp or preseason?]

I've been wondering this since the draft. Will teams be forced to make roster decisions with little more information than they have today? It seems unfair to all, perhaps undrafted free agents more than anyone as well as late round picks.

 

I'm hoping if there is no/little camp/preseason that rules are adjusted. Not quite sure how, perhaps expanded rosters to start the season?

[100 percent agree with this—safeties should be worth more than 2 points]

I like the idea of a safety being worth more than 2 points, perhaps 5 as some others have said, not 11 like the article said.

 

For those that said a safety is 2 points plus a turnover, not really true. Yes, the scoring team gets the ball back, but as the article said, due to it being a free kick, the average starting position isn't much better than after any other kickoff. If they had not scored the safety, then there is a very high chance that they'd force the other team to punt from very deep and they'd get the ball back almost in field goal range.

 

I've felt since SB XXV that safeties are not worthwhile unless you drive down the field and score right afterwards. As said above, you have a better chance of scoring a field goal or a touchdown if the defense holds them deep than getting a safety. Also, someone else pointed out that at the end of a game, up by 3 or more points with seconds left, it's a good strategy to run out of the endzone. I don't really see this as a problem, but changing the point count would decrease the point range that this strategy would work.

 

Another solution to what's said above is leave the 2 points as is but change where the scoring team gets the ball back. Either it has to be kicked from very deep, like perhaps the 5 yard line or it's just spotted somewhere automatically like at the 50 or even on the opponents side of the field.

[Who was the Bills best and worst draft pick of this century to this point?]

Best: Kyle Williams 

Worst: The other d tackle taken in the same 2006 draft but 4 rounds earlier (1st round if that wasn’t obvious), John McCargo. I think he played even fewer snaps than Maybin in his career. Maybin was drafted much higher of course, but the Bills actually traded back into the first to get McCargo.

 

Another good same draft comparison was 2008, James Hardy in the 2nd and then Stevie Johnson in the 7th. I know, the question want the same draft, but just felt like pointing these ones out.

[Would anyone look at maybe calling the Jaguars about Fournette?]

The article that was linked a couple pages back said they are probably looking for a 5th. It also brought up several other points (e.g. if he walks after this year we'd could get the pick back via comp pick). Although there are many examples of excellent running backs coming in the 5th or even later, there's quite a bit of luck involved for that happening. A proven commodity on a one year reasonable contract for a 5th that we could get back anyway is a no-brainer in my opinion. He'd be a fantastic complement to DS.

[Jordan Palmer's QB work story]

I hadn’t seen where they practice before. Now that they said JSerra (closed now due to corona virus) which is under 10 minutes from my house or the beaches in Dana Point which are around 15 minutes from me, maybe I should be a stalker.

[Karlos Williams making a comeback]

As has been said before, Karlos had a beast of a rookie season but then couldn't get out of his own way. Many of us felt even before he showed up fat and then had drug suspensions that his style of play would lead to a short NFL career due to concussions.

 

I realize that many here don't subscribe to the Athletic and therefore only see the soundbites that were quoted. He was going to just coach HS football but now is trying to make a comeback in the CFL. He does take responsibility for what happened. He said he loves Buffalo, loved the team, but HATES Doug Whaley. He implied he felt he was lied to when said they'd support him and felt Whaley was two faced when in the same press conference he said Karlos was released due to performance and that the Bills were standing behind Dareus because he just needed help (then Dareus said he's checking himself into a clinci and was seen the same night partying out on the town.

 

This is also in the article:

“When I look back on that, I wasn’t shocked,” Williams said. “A year ago, a year and a half ago, I would still be bitter and be mad. I wasn’t shocked. Look at all the evidence that was against me. I didn’t really treat football … I wasn’t a real professional. I had gotten suspended for four games. I came back and I was overweight. I had just let the media run wild. I was saying anything to the media just to get them off my back.

“I wasn’t actually practicing because I was a danger to myself, hurting myself because the weight was unsafe. I didn’t take it seriously. So when I got released I was like, ‘Woah, it’s game day and you didn’t give me a chance to perform.’ That’s not true. I had a chance to perform all offseason. I had a chance to work out, I had a chance to eat right. I had those opportunities. I just didn’t take advantage of those opportunities.”