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I don't see the gradual increase in passes though. I see passing remaining static (as well as the conversion rates) while runs going down (with higher conversion rate). This is data that definitely has an interesting story behind it. The problem is there are a lot of variables to go over.

Football is just too complex a game with too many variables to use a simple table like that and get too many conclusions from that data. What the data tells me is that running on 3rd and short is attempted less, but has become much more successful. What this data needs is to be segmented further to find out WHY running on third and short is converting better even with passing attempts on 3rd and short staying the same. With so many variables, I wish you luck on finding the answer, although I'm sure it's very possible to find out. Very interesting though. Maybe coordinators are getting smarter.

What happened to the hotel, entertainment park, and championship golf course? Also, read what Deacon Jones said about his old team on the next page. Can you imagine the news if a player said that now? And people get annoyed about Lynch. They have nobody to blame but themselves.

Yes, but I get the sense he did it AFTER taking abuse from fans. And he always got it worse than anybody else because he was a reach, held out in training camp, and talked to the media a lot and fans liked to take their frustrations out on him. I always felt the fans were just as responsible for Whitner's bad behavior as he was. It's called karma. In McGahee's case, he was a spoiled brat after Miami who was humbled only temporarily. This guy was hanging out at strip clubs with Shockey and the rest of the hotshot Miami crew back when he was still in college. He was going to be a top 3 pick, a future superstar RB. Yet he was never grateful to Buffalo for taking a chance on him in the 1st round. You could argue Donahue reached that year. Then he says what he says on the way out. Pure trash lowlife move. I'm normally the first to get annoyed with Bills fans when they talk crap about former players (like some on this board recently did with Stevie), but in this case McGahee totally deserves it.

Normally this is correct, but in this case McGahee said some pretty bad things about Buffalo and our women as he left town. Things that got picked up by the national media. He deserves it more than say Whitner or Byrd.

What you are doing is convincing yourself we can't win before we even get out on the field. You should never stop believing. It's the ones that don't listen to statements such as "teams without great QBs don't win the big one" that go on to win the big one. Every rule can be broken. If the Bills go on to win a Super Bowl or even just make it to the Super Bowl, every team without a good QB will copycat our system. I also disagree that a rookie and sophomore Sanchez is better than a veteran Cassel and 3rd year Manuel. Another ridiculous statement.

This made me laugh. I hope it happens though.

This has gotten out of hand. A great QB is very important, but you just took it to a ridiculous level, and then proved yourself wrong in the same sentence. The Jets made it to the AFC championship two years in a row with Sanchez just 4 or 5 years ago. The guy who coached that team is our coach right now. We haven't made the playoffs in 15 years. Please remind me why I shouldn't be pumped about this team right now?

The OP gets it. The Bills strategy is the best strategy they can have. Can't have a great QB? Then surround the QB we have with the best talent possible. It's the obvious thing to do. Sure beats whining about not having a QB, when there are no good ones available. Once we sign a veteran Guard and some depth, we're going to have the best team we can have without a good QB. We're making the Playoffs this year.

Perspective goes both ways. Perspective doesn't just mean the pessimistic point of view. When a large percentage of Bills fans are playing the "wait and see" game with their heads between their legs, it's refreshing to hear someone outside of our community who sees a different point of view. Nobody EVER became successful without a healthy dose of optimism and expectation of success. There is clearly a new energy at OBD. Also, I don't know of any cheerleaders in Buffalo media other than Chris Brown who is pretty much a shill. So I'd argue, John Murphy needs perspective more than Joe Rose does.

Did anybody actually listen to that. Joe Rose knew what he was talking about and made some very interesting points. 1. The Dolphins have too many holes on their roster to cripple their cap with the Clay deal. 2. If they lost Clay they would lose 4 of the top 5 receivers on the team from last year. That might motivate them to keep him. He really built Clay up. Then he showed some genuine excitement for the Bills. It got me excited. Then he told John Murphy "You guys must be excited!", then John Murphy replied in the most whiny, bored, jaded voice ever, "we are". Man, Bills fans are the biggest debbie downers.

Fans have heard of him because of fantasy football and think he's "good". They also see him as a cheaper alternative to Clay, and those who are worried we won't improve our O-line prefer spending less on TE and spending more on OG. Thus Gresham was the guy they preferred.

If they think he's worth #50 then by all means do it. Everyone complains we don't have a great QB, yet nobody wants to spend the assets it takes to acquire one. What's the point on taking a 7th round flyer when the odds of them becoming successful is WAY lower than a higher pick? 7th round flyers on Guards and TEs are much more likely to be successful than a QB. Everyone has their priorities backwards, but their whining always in order.

He threw for over 4000 yards 3 times in his career. Had a 12-4 record and a 22-12 TD/INT ratio just the year before his meltdown. What's the last 4000 yard QB we had? Bledsoe? Matt Schaub was a very respected QB in this league, then he had those pick 6s 3 or 4 games in a row and the narrative changed to "Matt Schaub always sucked". We would've killed for a QB like Schaub during the same time period he was good. And now, people are just going to pretend Schaub was never good just because it's cool to say he sucks now? It seems to me that his problem is mostly psychological. If we can build his confidence up, and our fans are supportive (I believe the Texans fans were partially responsible for his meltdown) and we can get him to stop worrying about failure, we can salvage ourselves one hell of a veteran QB.

Is there a precedent for an NFL QB just "losing" his arm strength in one year? Is that even possible? Did Schuab even injure his arm?

I watch football and Shaub was a very solid starting QB in this league just a few years ago before catching the yips. He cracked under pressure and hasn't been the same since. If we can build his confidence back, he's probably better than any QB on our roster.

You know, I didn't consider this in my previous post. That is one place where Miami has leverage on us. Cutting Chandler was, in my opinion, an error from a bluffing point of view. Now the Dolphins might believe that the Bills, like some of their fans, will get antsy over not having a tight end on the roster. However, this doesn't change things THAT much. We can still get a 2nd tier TE in May or draft one in the 2nd round, or even make a trade. All the Dolphins roster needs > The Bills need at TE Again, we still have leverage. We need to trust that we'll win and not settle for average, Who knows if Gresham even wants to come here? The Bills might already have a deal with him in place in case we don't get Clay. We may even already have a trade verbally in place as a back-up scenario.

I don't think the Bills will submit an offer sheet at all. It sounds like a simple stare down to me. The Bills are in the power position for the following reasons: 1. The Dolphins have more pressing needs on their roster than us. They need to sign other free agents now, more than we have to, in general. 2. They just tied up another $7M in the TE position. Clay is now not as big a necessity, especially with the other roster needs and limited cap space. 3. Dolphins are afraid to sign other free agents right now because then the Bills are more likely to give them a poison pill they can't responsibly match. Meanwhile the Bills signed Harvin and have more flexibility than the Dolphins do because they are not as worried about their cap. 4. The Dolphins most likely cannot offer Clay a better long term deal than the Bills That my friends are 4 power plays in our favor. The Dolphins are bluffing 100% and hoping the Bills back off or get antsy and sign other free agents thus lowering the offer sheet. The people saying the Dolphins have the power because they can match are missing the other main points. The Bills have the Dolphins backed in a corner with their hands tied. The Dolphins have several pressing needs that they cannot correct while this Clay standoff is going on, more than us. It's a matter of time before somebody in a high position gets some perspective and says "enough is enough", drop the tag and give it to them. I don't think the Bills plan on giving an offer sheet at all, they fully plan on Miami removing the tag. The Bills understand their position and are quietly waiting for the Dolphins to fold. Since there is no upcoming deadline for the offer sheet, the Dolphins are stuck in the mud until it's resolved. Right now the Buffalo fanbase needs to show the same patience, faith, and confidence that the Bills management are showing. This is an inevitable checkmate. The only way the Dolphins win this showdown is if: 1. The Bills get antsy and fold or submit an offer sheet too soon (unlikely) 2. Clay gets antsy and signs a long term deal with the Dolphins for less money (there is no indication of this happening) 3. Clay decides he doesn't want to go to Buffalo no matter what and takes the Transition Tag. 4. They drop the tag and Clay signs with a team other than the Bills. 5. Tannenbaum becomes extremely stubborn and in order to save face at his new job takes this staredown past the draft, into OTAs, and until the deadline. Again, I think this is a bluff on both sides and no offer sheet will be submitted by the Bills at any time. The Dolphins will cave in order to improve the rest of their team before it's too late. Clay will then sign with us as a FA without a large first year salary cap hike.

When's the deadline for the Bills to present an offer?

For anybody interested in watch more clips: http://draftbreakdown.com/players/john-miller/

He only had 4 teams to cover, and as far as I knew had no other jobs in his life. Yet Walker consistently proved that he knew less about the Bills than many fans who frequent message boards. He was in over his head. National guys tend to look at surface things, don't dive deep, and sometimes come up with conclusions that are puzzling because of this. This proves that they don't spend time on message boards, talking to people around the team, etc. They are not "in". They're on the outside looking in. Similar to a Bill Barnwell who's smart, but when you read what he says about the Bills (on the rare chances he mentions us), it's fairly obvious he concocted his opinion based on Pro Football Reference box scores and team stats, rather than spending time around the team, fans, and community or even watching more than a few games. I don't think Rodak's job is to inform Bills fans, but to inform national fans of other teams of some of the basics of what the Bills are doing. In order to have an "expert" to call into the room if the Bills do something noteworthy to explain in a few quick soundbites.

The problem does not start with Rodak. Remember James Walker? His problem wasn't being negative but that he knew nothing about the Bills and offered zero insight. We can rally to get rid of Rodak, but they're just going to give us another Walker clone. This feels like a misguided lynch mob. If we truly want change, we need to start at home with Schopp and Sullivan, not focus on a regional guy.

Bills were always in the position of power. We could sign whoever we wanted, but the Dolphins hands were tied in fear of what we would offer Clay. It was a matter of time before somebody inside the Dolphins organization panicked. No need to sacrifice the team for a TE when you have many other pressing needs. I don't remember the Bills ever entering into a contract situation like this the last 10-15 years. There's a new guy in the building who is a master negotiator. I have a feeling it's Pegula.

I don't buy that the Jets are going to go from 4-12 to playoff contender with a slight upgrade at QB and an all-pro cornerback. There are 20 other players on the field. If Vick played all 16 games last year, I think they go 6-10, 7-9 max. Is Fitz that much better?

I think Incognito is a big a-sshole and a bully, no need to make him look good because he's on our team. But Martin needed to stand up for himself and didn't. He wasn't cut out mentally. That said, everything Incognito does from now on will be watched and scrutinized very closely. I don't think it's going to happen again, at least not on the scale we saw.