I truly don't believe your "best-case scenario." There are games in there that have the potential to be winnable that you mark as sure-fire losses. The league is constantly evolving, and just because teams have been good in the past doesn't mean they will continue to be. The Panthers, Dolphins, Chiefs, Steelers, and Bucs games aren't automatic losses. I don't believe the hype about the Dolphins. People pick them as off-season favorites due to free agency pick-ups, but we all know how much effect being crowned the off-season champs has on the regular season. People hear the hype about Cam Newton and believe they're unbeatable, yet they haven't done too much even with him. The Bucs appear to be solidifying their defense, but their offense could be having a QB competition between Freeman and their rookie. The Steelers have been getting older and are on the decline. And the Chiefs were in last place last year. Yes, they had injuries, but then again, we do every year and no one gives us any slack for it. Why should we give it to them?
Now, do I believe that all this will come about, that the Bills will do really well and go to the playoffs? Not a chance. I think they will go in the 4-6 wins range next year. All I'm saying is that it's the NFL. You don't know who's going to get injured, who's going to step up and start kicking @$$, who slumps or starts to drop off. You don't know who will happen to have a bad game one week. It's where the "any given Sunday" phrase comes from. Don't even pretend to know which games are winnable in a "best case scenario" and which are guaranteed losses. A best case scenario is ALWAYS 16-0 and a Super Bowl victory