hondo in seattle

+1

Neither was very good actually. The D was good back then.

This is why Russ Brandon's regionalization efforts are so important. Buffalo does not have a large population and our fan base doesn't extend far beyond Buffalo. We need to get South Ontario to back the Bills if we want to cement the Bills long term future in WNY.

This is a good thought. The Bills have signed a stadium lease and now a contract with Toronto. Both these inked agreements make it more difficult for a new owner to relocate the franchise. I'm hoping we have a 10 year deal with St. John Fisher with a $10 million opt out clause. The more signed deals tying us to the region, the better.

First of all, $20 mil is the asking price, not the negotiated price. But it's not a crazy starting point. Flacco is a guy who will complete about 60% of his passes, throw 20 TDs against 10 picks, and average 220 yards or so per game. This is about what he's been doing the last four years. Oh, and he'll win some playoff games. Maybe that's not "elite" but it's pretty damn solid. We haven't had a guy who could produce like that year after year since Kelly. So I'd pay Flacco $20 million a year to be a Bill if that was an option.

Buffalo is, as I recall, the 3rd smallest market in the NFL. Green Bay is smaller, but Green Bay represent the whole state of Wisconsin and is owned by their fans. The Packers aren't moving. I think Jacksonville is also smaller and Jax fans also worry about losing their team. There are bigger cities out there, LA prominently among them, that don't have NFL franchises. Worse, the Buffalo market is stagnant while other cities enjoys healthy growth and prosperity. 100 years ago, Buffalo was perhaps the 10th biggest city in the US. Now the Buffalo metro area is about 40th, and it's only going to drop further down that list. Let's not forget that ticket prices in Buffalo are among the lowest in the league - if not the absolute lowest. While this is good for fans, it sucks for the Bills as a business. The smallish Buffalo economy just doesn't support a higher price point for tickets. Why would a billionaire owner want to keep a billion dollar franchise in a non-growth market when there are - financially speaking - much better options out there? Russ is doing everything he can to answer that question. If he succeeds in creating an active fan base in Toronto and Rochester, we may actually have some hope of keeping the Bills in Buffalo long term. If he fails, I seriously worry about the consequences. I'm not signing the petition.

I keep hearing Glennon throws a good deep ball, but not much else. Who was it that said that one of the best indicators of future NFL success is accuracy? You can't teach it, so they need to bring it with them. From what I hear, Glennon just isn't particularly accurate. Then again, all these QBs have some flaw or another.

This is how Lance Armstrong rationalized his actions and got himself into trouble: "Everyone else cheats so I will too." I prefer the Marv Levy approach (i.e. Levy the Coach, not Levy the GM): win with character and class.

+1 We're comparing a QB we ultimately didn't want to another QB we ultimately didn't want. What's the point? In both cases, we needed better. Let's hope this time we actually find better.

"It was a terrible mistake. And we knew it was wrong while we were doing it." This is a quote from Greggo. An honest, contrite confession? Or the appearance of one in a quid pro quo with Goddell?

Auburn BB, thanks for the post. Interesting insights from Polian. I'm not a draft geek so let me ask... How many drafts don't include, in retrospect, at least one NFL caliber QB? My hunch is that it's not many but I could be wrong.

The pistol is ground-breaking? It's been around for about ten years now. But it's really just a tweak on the shotgun - which has been around since the 1930s - with the QB a couple steps further up. Chan also liked to use the spread offense. So does Chip Kelly. The spread has also been around since the 1930's. Hardly ground-breaking, Chip Kelly's spread is different because he mixes in other elements and does it uptempo. Chan's spread isn't unique - or uniquely successful. But the bigger point is that Marrone and his coaches are a bunch of football geeks, in the mold of Jon Gruden.

One thing I like about Jon Gruden is that he’s a football junkie. He says that last year he seriously considered being Oregon’s OC just for the opportunity to learn Chip Kelly’s uptempo spread offense. He also, by the way, studied what Marrone was doing in Syracuse. Gruden loves analyzing game tape and discussing new ideas with the best football innovators out there. Gailey and Wannstedt are cast from a different mold. Both seemed to just do what they’ve always done in the past. Their attitude seemed to be, “It worked before so why try something different?” Chan was smart enough to tweak some of his outdated ideas enough to create a modicum of success on the offensive side of the ball. Wannstedt, not as bright as Chan, just stubbornly stuck to what he knew and failed miserably on the defensive side. In contrast, the new coaches are true students of the game. From all that I’ve been reading, Marrone, Pettine and Hackett are football geeks like Gruden. They know where various schemes originated and how they evolved over the years. When they hear about a coach getting success with something new, they’ll study game tape to see what they can learn and borrow. Hackett calls it getting your “Ph.D in football.” When Marrone was first hired, he said he wanted coaches who lived and breathed football. I think football geekdom was part of what he was talking about. He wanted guys who obsessively study film and pick the brains of the best coaches out there. Mike Pettine, our new DC, is one of those guys. According to accounts, Pettine is always scouting other defenses for new tactics to confuse and stymy offensive coordinators and quarterbacks. Pettine’s defenses at New York were a varied – and mostly successful - smorgasboard of borrowed schemes. Even Pat Morris, our new Offensive Line Coach, spent this past season with Gruden and his “Fired Football Coaches of America” breaking down game film and learning new concepts. Marrone seems to be putting together a group of thinkers and experimenters. While this won’t necessarily equate to success, I’m getting excited to see what the new Buffalo Bills look like on the field.

I've never heard him say that he'll keep us in a 4-3 base. Maybe the closest he comes to actually saying something like this is in this piece from Chris Brown: Bills new defensive coordinator Mike Pettine was asked in a 1-on-1 interview with Buffalobills.com if he’s married to the 3-4 base defense coming to Buffalo. Here was his response. “I’m not. Again it’s a situation where I think people try to compartmentalize too much and just broad stroke it 3-4, 4-3, what are you? And my answer to that question is yes to all of the above,” Pettine told Buffalobills.com. ”We are a multiple front, attacking, pressure-style defense. We’re going to play man coverage, we’re going to play zone coverage. What we’re going to do defensively is take advantage of what our players do well. “I’m not bringing in a defense, this is going to be the Buffalo Bills defense. It’s going to be built around the explosive athletes that are here. Again starting with the front and that’s the solid foundation here and moving to the linebackers and secondary stacked behind them. It made the decision so much easier for me looking at the roster.”

Fair enough. But given that we're built to be a 4-3 team, I would expect Pettine's utilization of a 4 man front to be more common with the Bills (at least in Year One) than it was with the Jets. He seems comfortable enough with the 4-3 that he won't be reluctant to use it if that's where our talent's at.

Pettine deployed the 3-4 only 37% of the time. Here's a good article on the various formations used by the Jets. http://bleacherrepor...se-is-not-a-3-4 In another article this past June when he was still with the Jets, Pettine said he would be using a lot of 4-3 against AFC East opponents: "For the better part of three seasons, Pettine and Ryan have relied on innovative and unconventional tactics to create havoc within the framework of their 3-4 scheme. Although the Jets will retain some of those 3-4 roots, Pettine admitted that “we’re going to be more 4-3” to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks in 2012. The Jets have finished 18th, 7th and 17th in the league in sacks under Ryan. Pettine went so far as to predict that the Jets may not play any 3-4 base defense in their six AFC East games that feature three teams with spread offenses. “We might not play a snap of base defense in a division game this year,” Pettine told me. “If it’s five snaps a game, that’s probably a lot.” http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/jets/2012/06/jets-will-rely-on-the-foundation-of-the-defense-and-play-more-four-man-fronts You might say Pettine will run a 3-4 base, but it doesn't mean a lot when we'll be in base less than half the time. It's good to have a guy who thinks creatively, unlike Wanny.

I'm going to take Pettine at his word when he says talk about a base defense (whether it's 3-4, 4-3 or 46) is pretty meaningless since he will use a variety of defensive alignments depending on our personnel and the offense we're playing against. For example, here's an excerpt of an article by Mike Florio on PFT: With 3-4 guru Mike Pettine taking over a defense that has been constructed to operate as a 4-3, the big question for the Bills has become whether Mario Williams will for the second time in three seasons be asked to play outside linebacker. The easy answer is yes. And no. Pettine talked about his new job with the Bills’ official website, and he was asked whether he’ll be using a 3-4 or a 4-3. “The answer is really yes to both,” Pettine said. “We’ll be a multiple front, multiple coverage defense. The trademark of our defense is we’re going to be smart, tough and relentless. How we configure it is more player-driven. I’ve always believed that you don’t fit your players to your scheme, but you fit your scheme to your players. What I see here is a group of explosive athletes and playmakers and we’re going to put them in a position to do just that. We’re going to be in the configuration that gives us the best opportunity to win football games.” http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/11/3-4-or-4-3-for-bills-under-pettine-yes/

I agree. In fact, I started a thread on this very same subject yesterday. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/155256-exhaustive-qb-search/

Oops... I did screw up the probability - not sure what I was thinking. And my by-round odds were probably optimistic in the first place. Both observations reinforce the case for acquiring multiple QBs. Even if we drafted two, our chances of not finding the right guy are considerable. A 31% probability - if your assessment is right - is pretty bleak but far better than 17%.

I've always thought like you. But good QBs are a rare commodity. Other positions are easier to fill through free agency, trades, and lower round draft picks. For example, the Seahawks got their starting RB (Lynch) for a 5th round draft pick. You don't get a good starting QB that cheap. For the most part, you draft them.

Sorry, I somehow I missed your excellent post. You provide a great analysis that reinforces the argument that - probabilities being what they are - we need to draft more than one QB this year. Then maybe get a guy with experience as an emergency backup in case the rookies don't make it.

Yep! When it comes to the HC search, I am drinking the Kool Aid! I believe Brandon, Nix and Whaley began their due diligence weeks - if not months - before releasing Chan. They had already talked to people about their candidates, studied film, etc. So they were hot and ready to go when Black Monday came. The only thing left was to do the interviews and they got those scheduled quick. I'm glad they struck before someone else could nab their man. But that's not the point of the original post. The Bills haven't had a good QB since Kelly. Todd Collins had a good game once - as the back up for another team. Doug Flutie played well sometimes - in the 4th quarter. Rob Johnson threw some NFL caliber passes when he wasn't taking a sack. Bledsoe played some good games before crashing. Trent Edwards completed a high percentage of check downs. JP tossed some beautiful long balls to Lee Evans but couldn't complete a screen or down-n-out. Fitz had a streak last year when he completed a lot of underneath stuff and a few jump balls. But none of these guys ever become our franchise QB. I'm tired of waiting for the next Kelly. As we all know, it's hard to make the playoffs when you don't have a good QB. So I want us to really commit our resources to finding one this year. While I am happy with the HC search, I'm hoping OBD gives me reason to drink a little QB Kool Aid too this offseason!

Russ Brandon said that their HC search was "exhaustive" and I believe him. But what about the QB search? A few posters here have suggested the Bills draft two QBs in this draft and I agree. Our QB search needs also to be "exhaustive." 20% to 50% of 1st round QBs become 'franchise quarterbacks' - depending on your definition of a 'franchise QB' and what time frame you look at. To look at it another way, only about 30% or so of QBs picked in the first round will ever accomplish enough to play in a Pro Bowl. At best, getting a good QB in the first round is a 50-50 proposition. Getting one in later rounds has even longer odds. I don't want the success of the Bills to hinge on a coin toss, at best. For the sake of argument, let's say a first rounder has a 50% chance of success and a 2nd rounder 30%. If we draft a QB in both the 1st and 2nd round, our chances of at least one of the QBs succeeding is now statistically 85%. This is similar to what Seattle did last year. They acquired Matt Flynn but drafted Russell Wilson to stack the odds in their favor. We need to stack the odds in ours. To compensate the rawness of two rookie QBs on the roster, we should furthermore trade for Flynn or Alex Smith if either are truly on the market. Or go after an experienced FA like TJack or Matt Moore. QBs are more important than ever in today's NFL and I'm hoping OBD goes after this position hard this off-season. http://thedctimes.co...il-for-success/ http://bleacherrepor...eed-for-success http://aol.sportingn...disappointments http://articles.sun-...ft-josh-freeman

Good article. The first two lines say it all.... Former 2007 No. 1 overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell is training for an NFL comeback. We'll wait until you stop laughing ... And if that isn't enough info, how about this... The former Oakland Raiders quarterback, who hasn't taken a single NFL snap since 2009, told Yahoo! Sports he's dropped from 320 pounds to 308 pounds and is ready to bury past criticisms. Wow. He lost 12 lbs. He's really serious this time. At least he knows the problem... "People would say (that) I didn't love the game but that pisses me off. People don't know the real you but I want people to know the real me..." Yep, all his actions since he left college scream he loves the game.

I really don't get why so many people are saying the Bills HC search was not "exhaustive." Unless you have inside knowledge, how do you know? I have to assume OBD began their due diligence weeks - if not months - before Chan was canned. They probably studied game tape of the various HC candidates and talked to people who knew them. The interviews we know about are just the tip of the iceberg. Just look at the interview schedule. Russ and the guys hit this with a sense of purpose. They knew just who they wanted to talk to and what questions they wanted to ask- because they had already done extensive homework. Before Chan was even fired, the search could be deemed "exhaustive."